Why China Should Invest Its Foreign Exchange Reserves in the Major US Banks

The subprime mortgage crisis and the resultant inflationary monetary policy in the USA have left the Chinese economy subject to four risks in particular. First, China＇s exports to the USA might continue to decline. Second in the medium term, the higher US inflation rate will lead to a weak dollar, which will negatively affect China＇s exports. Third in the long term, when the US Federal Reserve decreases money supply to control inflation, the US economy might enter another recession, hurting China ＂s exports further. Fourth, China＇s foreign exchange reserve assets might suffer heavy losses when the US inflation rate rises. Conventional foreign exchange investment strategies are insufficient for dealing with these four risks. Investment by China in the major US banks is suggested in the present paper. This strategy would mitigate if not eliminate all four risks. China could gain considerable financial returns on investments with only moderate risk.     

中国外汇市场的问题与对策

An important task in the domain of Chinas foreign exchange administration in the nearterm is to improve the so-called managed floating exchange rate regime1 by deepening themarket-oriented reform of the renminbi exchange rate formation mechanism, and to allow aflexible exchange rate to have a more important role in resource allocation and macroeconomicreadjustment. The exchange rate regime is closely related to the foreign exchange market.To a large degree, the choice of the exchange rate regi…     

An Examination of Component Returns and Volatility for Country-Specific Equity Funds in Emerging Markets＇ Evidence From Asian Financial Crisis

This research aims to examine the daily return generating processes for country-specific funds in five east-Asian countries for the period 1995-2000. The effects of component returns and their volatility on the dollar denominated returns and volatility of U.S., international investors and the effects of exchange rate regimes on risk and return are also evaluated. The GARCH-M model is adopted, without the restrictive assumptions of linearity, independence, and constant conditional variance. The time frame, 1995-2000 captures a 30 months period prior to these East Asian countries aborting exchange rate stabilization/intermediate exchange rate regimes in response to the currency crisis. The decomposition of returns to holders of country-specific equity funds into the component returns due to changes in the exchange rate and the returns valued in the fund＇s foreign currency during a period of crisis provides additional information. This research provides evidence of the importance of examining component returns. With regards to the effects on volatility, both the conditional variances associated with the exchange rate returns and the returns denominated in the foreign currencies show some importance, especially the conditional variances associated with the returns denominated in the foreign currencies. With regards to the effects of return component, the exchange rate returns have a greater effect on the fund returns than foreign currency dominated returns.     

Does Corporate Short-term Financing Bills Mitigate Bank Credit Risk？

The corporate short-term financing bill is one of the financial innovation products in 2005 in China, whose purpose is to solve the unbalance enterprise financing structure. On the basis of overview of the corporate short-term financing bills, the paper researches its effect on the bank＇s risk management and reaches the conclusion that the corporate short-term financing bills can reduce the bank＇s credit risk only by improving the systematic and technical environment in China.     

Autonomy and Effectiveness of Chinese Monetary Policy under the De Facto Fixed Exchange Rate System

This paper uses monthly data to examine the autonomy and effectiveness of monetary policy in China under the de facto fixed exchange rate arrangement in place from 1998 to 2005. The results obtained from Granger causality tests in a vector autoregression framework indicate that： （i） China actually conducted independent monetary policy during the fixed exchange rate period; and （ii） market-oriented policy measures are impotent in influencing real output and prices. The framework of the investigation into the autonomy of monetary policy adapts to the Chinese economic condition that primary loan and deposit rates are set by the central bank. Based on the empirical results, the present paper provides alternative strategies to improve the effectiveness of monetary policy in China, including developing the financial system and solidifying microeconomic fundamentals instead of forcing the adaptation of a more flexible exchange rate regime.     

Evidence of Credit Risk Contagion Between Corporate and Financial Sectors

We propose a copula-GARCH framework to analyze the credit risk dependence structure between the European corporate and financial sectors. Empirical study is conducted on two representative iTraxx indices. In order to better capture the dynamic behavior of dependence we allow copula parameters to be time-varying by specifying them as a function of past values and standardized score of the copula log-likelihood. The results obtained indicate a time-varying dependence structure with statistically significant tail dependence coefficients supporting the existence of credit risk contagion effects. Goodness-of-fit tests are used to indicate which model is closest to the true conditional copula. Our findings provide further evidence supporting the interconnectivity of credit risk between corporates and financial institutions operating on the European market.     

Testing the impact of trading volume on market return and volatility： The case of the Romanian stock market

This paper examines both the return-volume and volatility-volume movements on Bucharest stock exchange, in order to evaluate the impact of changes in stock market liquidity on stock returns and on volatility of returns. We employ linear Granger-causality tests to investigate the dynamic relation between trading volume, stock returns and returns volatility on the Romanian stock market, using daily logarithmic returns for the composite index BET-C, as a proxy for the market, and daily logarithmic change in trading volume during the period January 2004-July 2008. As a proxy for return volatility we employ absolute values of daily deviation of return from its mean value during the considered time period. We can report unidirectional linear causality from returns to volume and also from volume to volatility.     

RMB Exchange Market Pressure and Central Bank Exchange Market Intervention

The present paper uses the model-dependent and the modeL independent approach to measure the RMB exchange market pressure （EMP） and the central bank＇s intervention using monthly data from January 1999 to June 2008. It is determined that the RMB has been under great appreciation pressure over the past decade. However, the pressure has been weakening since 2005. The two approaches provide significantly different results in terms of the estimated RMB EMP indices and the estimated central bank＇s interventions. The differences may lead to different predietions of potential currency crises. According to the estimation of the RMB EMP, and based on the model-independent approach, the paper shows that China has been under threat of an appreciation currency crisis since 2008. Therefore, China should adopt a moreflexible exchange rate regime to prevent a potential crisis.     

Industrial Risk Management： Modeling From the Explosion of the 19/01/04 Complex of Liquefied Natural Gas,Skikda （GL 1 / K）

After several incidents or accidents, the most serious case being the one who struck the complex Skikda liquefied natural gas （GLI / K） on January 19, 2004, the group Sonatrach sensitive to the incident has taken further steps along the lines of prevention safe knowing that the business risk is an integral part of the business industry and it is about health, safety, and environmental protection. These factors will be taken into account in the process of management and decision making at all levels. This study tries to find the causal factors of the explosion of 19 January 2004 （GLI / K） and to develop a fault tree and assess the risks arising from these factors,     

2003年以来中国的宏观经济形势分析

The Chinese economy has emerged from deflation and entered a new stage of economic growth in late 2002 and early 2003. The sudden pick up of the economy has led to a worsening of structural imbalance and inflation is rising. The Chinese government has to find a fine trade-off between growth and inflation. While the central bank needs to tighten its monetary policy, the government may need to use a more expansionary fiscal policy to offset the contracting effect created by the tightened monetary policy. The structural imbalance and partial overheating remind us that China‘s economic reform still has a long way to go. The Chinese government must speed up its reform process. While the long-term prospect for China‘s economic rise is promising, it may be necessary for the Chinese people to prepare themselves for a harder time ahead.     

尼克松冲击与广场协议：日本的教训

I. IntroductionThe Chinese exchange rate regime, a de facto dollar peg system, is coming under increas-ingly severe criticism from the international community including the U.S. and other G7countries, who argue that the renminbi is significantly undervalued and the competitiveadvantage China gains from the undervaluation is hurting their industries. They also arguethat the fixed exchange rate regime for the renminbi hampers the international adjustmentprocess and at the same time, risks a lo…     

Market reaction on convertible bonds offering： An agency cost of free cash flow perspective

By investigating ＂announcement effects＂ of 48 CBS and 439 pure equity offering in Chinese A-share listed companies, this paper finds that, in general, convertible bonds issue announcement may elicit a negative stock price response, firms with convertible bonds issue announcement experience significantly higher mean of abnormal returns than firms with equity issue announcement, and the fallen stock price is positively related to offering size, and negatively related to debt/asset ratio. Further, we find those firms with less undistributed cash flow and more growth opportunity experience significantly higher price response than firms with more undistributed cash flow and less growth opportunity. The empirical evidence consists with the predictions of the agency costs of free cash flow theory.     

On China’s Exchange Rate Flexibility and Stability: The More Flexible against the U.S. Dollar, the More Stable in Effective Terms

I. IntroductionFor many years, the Chinese authorities have often expressed their appreciation for the merits of a flexible exchange rate regime for China and their willingness to make the exchange rate of the renminbi, China’s national currency, be determined by market forces. 1 In the same breath, however, they also stressed the importance of a “stable exchange rate” forChina, although it is not clear what the authorities meant by a “stable exchange rate.” (The People’s bank of Chin…     

Research on the risk of the collateral in Chinese commercial banks

Credit risk mitigation is an efficient bank＇s credit management instrument, there is some barriers in using collateral ＆ guarantees in China. The article analyzes the operational risks from bank governance and legal environment aspects. Then, the paper puts forward some suggestions.     

China's Exchange Rate Movements and Corporate Currency Invoicing Strategies

Since China introduced a new managed floating exchange rate regime in 2005, the persistent appreciation of the renminbi against the US dollar has led Chinese firms to reassess their choice of invoice currency among the dollar and other international alternatives to price their exports. The present paper performs a systematic invoice currency analysis by surveying the published literature, summarizing criteria for decision-making, and evaluating the choices available to Chinese exporters implementing currency invoicing strategies to maximize expected profits. This study finds that the euro could play an increasing role as the invoice currency of Chinese firms, although the US dollar will still play a dominant role. Chinese exporters might shift gradually from the dollar to the euro in the face of the falling dollar, balancing between the two by necessity.     

Scaling risk and the square-root-of-time rule in the emerging markets： Evidence from the Chinese stock market

This paper examines the square-root-of-time rule that frequently used in volatility estimation to the Chinese stock market that comprises Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market. The Jarque-Bera test conclusively rejects normal distribution of both stock market returns, while the Hurst analysis indicates both stock market returns does not follow a random walk. Furthermore, the tests for volatility scaling indicate volatility of both stock market returns do not scale according to the square-root-of-time rule and lead to bias in risk estimation. Henceforth, the study urges more alternative methods in risk management that suitable for the emerging Chinese stock market.     

The Relevance of Place-Brand Management in Place-Marketing Strategy

Observers perceive each place through a particular image, not necessarily positive, definable in a distinctive positioning through place-marketing strategies; the relations between the actors of the territory system play an important role, and the place-brand becomes ＂the connector＂ of the relational network in place-marketing management. The aims of this article are to analyze the relations between place identity, place-brand, and place-marketing strategy; to look at case studies of bottom-up strategy as a medium for the long-term empowerment of the place-brand strategy; and to examine the relevance of place-brand positioning and interaction between governance and stakeholders in place-marketing strategy development.     

Retrospect of the Chinese Exchange Rate Regime after Reform： Stylized Facts during the Period from 2005 to 2010

In the present paper, we estimate the de facto RMB exchange rate regime, the currency basket, the floating band and the foreign exchange market pressure before and after the reform of the Chinese exchange rate regime in 2005. We find the following stylized facts： the value of the RAIB became stable after the reform; the weight of the US dollar remained high in the basket, while other currencies remained statistically significant; and the floating band gradually increased to lO percent during 2005-2008, and then greatly narrowed from the late summer of 2008 under the assumption of a yearly resetting interval. We find that the foreign exchange market pressure increased from 2005 to 2008. A possible reason is that the weight of the US dollar in the basket was slightly lower than the share of the US dollar in total transactions on the Chinese foreign exchange market. Therefore, it is reasonable for China to adopt a dollar peg exchange rate regime.     

Impact of Advance Notice Periods on the Performance Persistence of Hedge Funds

This paper examines the impact of the advance notice period on hedge fund performance persistence in investors＇ portfolios. As investors in hedge funds face several trading restrictions related to the funds＇ common investment terms and conditions, it is hypothesized that the advance notice period generates illiquidity for investors and impairs their ability to benefit from performance persistence in hedge funds. Using a sample of 4,788 hedge funds over a period from 1994 to 2008 and contingency table based standard methodology for returns and Sharpe ratios, the results suggest that accounting for individual funds＇ advance notice periods has a negative impact on the performance persistence of hedge funds. The proportion of significantly persistent funds declines when incorporating the advance notice period, especially for short time horizons. Furthermore, a considerable part of hedge fund performance persistence is related to asset class-specific terms and conditions, reducing the amount of short-term performance persistence in practice.     

Dynamic Transition of Exchange Rate Regime in China

Thepaper considers the optimal transition path for China＇s exchange rate regime. How can China successfully make the shift from the current dollar peg regime to a more desirable regime, whether a basket peg or a floating regime？ To answer this question, we develop a dynamic small open economy general equilibrium model. We construct four transition policies based on a basket peg or a floating regime and compare the welfare gains of these policies relative to maintaining the dollar peg regime. Two main results are derived from the quantitative analysis using Chinese data from 1999Q1 to 2010Q4. First, following a gradual adjustment to a basket peg regime is the most appropriate path for China to take, with minimal welfare losses associated with the shift in the exchange rate regime. Second, a sudden shift to the basket peg is the second best solution, and is superior to a sudden shift to floating because the monetary authority can efficiently determine optimal weights to attach to currencies in the basket to achieve policy goals once they adopt a basket peg regime.