华盛顿共识向后华盛顿共识的转变——兼论跨国资本家阶层意识形态的变革

本文主要论述华盛顿共识与后华盛顿共识的内涵以及运行方式等,对华盛顿共识和后华盛顿共识进行比较研究而认为二者的差异就在于策略上的不同而没有本质上的改变。     

“华盛顿共识”与“北京共识”比较

中国的改革和发展成就引起了世界各国的强烈关注。作为一种不同于“华盛顿共识”的改革模式,有西方学者将此称为“北京共识”。在对“华盛顿共识”和“北京共识”进行详细分析和比较基础上,阐释中国经济发展取得巨大成就的原因。藉此研究,旨在给那些渴望发展的广大发展中国家及中国的进一步改革一些启示。     

Trade liberalization and income inequality: The case for Pakistan

Trade liberalization policies have been adopted by many developing countries to increase economic growth and reduce poverty. While the positive relationship between trade liberalization and economic growth is generally well accepted, the impact of trade liberalization on poverty and income inequality is still unclear. The objective of this paper is to use real data and real trade agreements of the state of Pakistan, to examine the predictions made by trade models about the impact of trade liberalization on income inequality. To illustrate, the impacts of several alternative bilateral and regional free trade agreements are simulated on household income and income inequality in Pakistan. The results show that trade liberalization does not always lead to a decline in income inequality in the short run. Trade agreements that do improve income equality, favor agriculture and often hinge on a decline in urban and non-farm household income. In the long run, changes in income equality are more positive, suggesting that efforts might best be applied towards improving the mobility of labor and capital.     

Trade liberalization and wage inequality: Evidence from Korea

This paper investigates the heterogeneous income distribution effects of trade liberalization using Korean survey data from years of 2000–2015. Following the Stolper-Samuelson theorem most of previous research studying the effects of trade liberalization on wage differences focus on workers’ characteristics (e.g., skilled or unskilled) while heterogeneity within the same worker group has not been yet substantially investigated. To fill this gap, this paper provides empirical evidence of wage inequality across firms within the same group of workers caused by trade liberalization, potentially implied in the new-new trade models with firm heterogeneity. Employing a difference-in-differences (DID) specification, we find that the wages of unskilled workers in Korea have increased since its FTAs with more advanced countries, such as members of EU and the US, came into effect, while the effects on the wages of skilled workers are negative but not statistically significant. We also show that wage effects are heterogeneous across firms within unskilled and skilled worker groups, while the positive effects are statistically significant and largest for unskilled workers in medium-large sized firms. These findings are in line with both traditional and new-new trade models.     

Economic growth and income inequality in the Asia-Pacific region: A comparative study of China,Japan, South Korea,and the United States

This paper builds an inequality-growth-redistribution nexus, and applies the Engle–Granger two-step ECM approach to estimate the long-run and short-run relationships between inequality and growth for four economies: China, Japan, South Korea, and the United States. Our estimation results support the S-shaped curve hypothesis relating GDP per capita to inequality with different starting points for the four economies. For the reverse relationship, we find a positive causal relationship for China, Japan, and the United States, indicating that increased income inequality spurred economic growth. In addition, we find mixed results on the effect of trade openness on inequality and growth. Trade openness reduced inequality in the United States and Japan, worsened it in China and had no significant effect in South Korea. In the inequality-GDP per capita relationship, exports provided an impetus to economic growth for Japan. As for redistribution, although fiscal redistributive measures reduced inequality in Japan, they played no major role in the other three countries. With regard to the inequality-GDP per capita relationship, all countries except for China show a negative effect of fiscal redistribution on GDP per capita.     

Impacts of an international bridge on households: Evidence from Thailand

This paper empirically investigates the impacts of an international bridge between Thailand and Laos on households in Thailand. Based on the significance of agricultural sectors near the bridge, we investigate how its effect on household income differs between agricultural households and other types of households. We found that the bridge increased the income of agricultural households with agricultural land, especially those near the bridge. In contrast, agricultural households without agricultural land or non-agricultural households with agricultural land did not enjoy such an income increase. We also investigated whether it induced households near the bridge to participate in the agricultural sector, but the results were insignificant. In short, agricultural households in Thailand enjoyed positive gains from establishing the second bridge.     

贸易开放是否改善了能源效率:基于省区间比较优势非线性的实证分析

我国作为能源消费大国和对外贸易大国,能源消费与经济增长的矛盾日益凸显,成为了我国在实现可持续发展目标的过程中的新难题。本文运用了Antweiler等提出的理论模型,使用31个省份1995-2008年的数据、采用面板固定效应进行计量回归,探讨贸易自由化与我国各省份的能源消费情况的关系。结果显示,对外贸易通过规模、技术和结构效应对能源的消费产生了程度和效果各异的影响。其中,贸易引致的结构效应则由各省的比较优势所决定并通过对外贸易影响当地的能源消费情况及变化趋势。     

贸易自由化对我国地区收入不平等的影响:来自中国的经验证据

文章基于协整的VAR模型从实证的角度研究了我国地区收入不平等与贸易自由化之间的长期均衡和短期动态关系。研究发现：（1）地区收入不平等、贸易自由化与经济增长之间存在长期均衡关系,贸易自由化和经济增长对于关注参数而言是弱外生变量;（2）贸易自由化在长期内减缓了我国地区收入不平等程度,但在短期内却导致了我国地区收入不平等程度的上升;（3）经济增长长期内趋于提高了我国地区收入不平等程度,但短期的影响方向不确定;（4）地区收入不平等是一个随机游走过程,不是一个含有结构突变的趋势平稳过程。     

为了控制收入差距的共识:经济学贡献了什么?

近年来,关于收入分配不均的成因,学术界已有比较成熟的研究,但对收入分配不均的影响的研究却很少,并且就公平而谈,公平很难在控制收入差距的政策上取得共识。本文基于现有的经济学文献,对收入分配不均的三大影响(贫困、社会流动性、经济增长)从经济学角度进行了分析,通过综述经济学家已得到的看法,为控制收入差距的政策提供一个理论基础,并指出未来的研究方向(包括收入分配不均对健康、社会资本、环境等方面的影响)及政策含义。     

Divergence or convergence?: Income inequality between cities,towns and villages in Japan

Researchers have emphasized different aspects of income inequality, including the statistical evidence of interregional per capita income convergence (following the economic growth theory) and the increase in individual income inequality. This study clarifies these issues, by analyzing the interregional income inequality of cities, towns and villages data in Japan from 1986 to 1999. The results of this empirical analysis show that the interregional income inequality decreases in the 1990s, in spite of the increase in individual income inequality.     

The new goods margin in Japanese–Chinese trade

This paper uses the methodology developed in Kehoe and Ruhl (2013) to measure the change in the extensive, or new goods, margin of trade between Japan and China after China's entry into the World Trade Organization in 2001. The new goods account for 15.9% of Japanese exports to China and 22% of Chinese exports to Japan after trade liberalization. For the case of Chinese exports to Japan, a time series measure shows the growth in new goods coincides with the timing of the trade liberalization.     

贸易与收入分配关系的理论和实证研究回顾

20世纪90年代末,随着全球化的急剧推进,各国非熟练劳动力的收入日益恶化且收入差距也迅速扩大,使得贸易对收入分配的影响成为各国学者研究的热点。无论是传统的国际贸易理论,还是当代的新国际贸易理论对贸易是否会影响国内收入分配这一问题上一直充满争议。本文对贸易与收入分配关系的理论和实证研究进行简单的回顾和归纳,并在分析现有研究成果的基础上指出今后这一问题的研究动向。     

Market integration and market efficiency: The case of 19th century Italy

This paper examines market integration in Italy in the 19th century, focusing on wheat. Wheat prices converged well before political Unification (1859-1861) but the process halted during the 1860s only to resume in the 1870s and 1880s. The first wave of integration was caused mainly by improvements in market efficiency while the second wave owed much to a reduction in transport costs.     

日本资本市场开放:动因、过程与经验教训

战后日本经济的恢复与发展和来自美国、OECD等外部环境的压力是日本资本市场对外开放的内外两大背景因素,日本采取的是全方位的有限制的渐进的直接开放模式。日本政府采取的逐步开放政策,对于日元向资本项目下自由兑换体制的平稳过渡发挥了积极作用。由于我国目前的情况与日本有相似性,因此,深入分析日本资本市场开放的动因、过程与经验教训,可对我国资本市场的开放提供借鉴。     

美国金融霸权、金融危机与全球金融治理——基于新马克思主义的视角

2008年美国金融危机爆发后,美国金融霸权的地位及其对危机的影响是国内外学界存在较大争议的一个问题.本文从新马克思主义的世界体系论视角,分析了美国在牙买加体系中的金融霸权,其金融霸权不仅催生了房地产泡沫,为金融危机在美国国内生成创造了条件,而且也导致危机在全球迅速传播,从而演变为自1929年-1933年大萧条以来最严重的大危机.为制约美国的金融霸权,全球金融治理已提上议事日程,但在相当长时期内难以取得实质性进展.     

Agricultural liberalization,poverty and inequality: Indonesia and Thailand

The effects of agricultural and general trade liberalization in Indonesia and Thailand are analyzed and compared using a multi-household, multi-sector integrated general equilibrium framework. In both countries agricultural protection contributes a relatively small part of the total cost of protection because when the protection is removed the gain in welfare is much smaller in the case of agricultural liberalization than across the board liberalization. In both countries the poor, urban and rural, have a strong interest in across the board liberalization of trade policy. The urban poor also have an interest in agricultural trade liberalization, but not the rural poor.     

THE DETERMINANTS OF EMPLOYMENT: A SECTORAL ANALYSIS FOR TURKEY

This paper analyzes the effects of wages, openness, and demand on employment in the private manufacturing industry in Turkey based on panel data for the period of 1973–2001. The wage elasticity of employment increases after trade liberalization. Nevertheless, output elasticity of labor demand is higher than wage elasticity in the total manufacturing sector for the whole estimation period, and in the high- and medium-skilled sectors in the post-1980 period. Trade effects, after controlling for output, seem to have a low economic significance. The positive effects of exports on the labor intensity of production are low or are offset by labor saving effects of foreign trade, particularly in the high- and medium-skilled sectors. On the other hand, there is some evidence of a negative import effect in the low-skilled sectors, whereas in the high- and medium-skilled group a complementary relation between domestic labor and imported inputs dominates the effects.