楼市

编者荐房一场旷日持久的“史上最严厉调控”让开发商们实实在在体验到了冬天的寒意。     

地震加速成都楼市调整

"5·12"汶川大地震已经过去一个月,在灾区重建工作有条不紊推进的同时,这次地震带来的间接损失也正日益显现出来,其中灾区特别是成都市的房地产市场走势,尤为消费者所关注。     

北京2月楼市进入传统“低迷期”

2月恰逢春节传统佳节,北京楼市预计也将进入一个传统“低迷期”。     

谨防楼市黑幕

哪里存在暴利,哪里就有更多的黑幕,比如说楼市。在房价高的离谱的今天,楼市的暴利已经是社会公开的秘密,不过即使是暴利,以开发商为代表的房地产既得利益集团也不会老老实实建好房子．就着对购房者负责任的态度去做好应该做的问题。购房者在购房的时候,虽然是出钱的那一方,似乎却居于弱势,尤其是签了合同,付了购房款之后,很容易发现自己购买的房产问题多多,烦恼不已。故而在购房前,就应该审时度势,看清楚开发商的置业黑幕。     

楼市多事之秋，购房何去何从？

正值楼市“银十”之际,迎接楼市的却不是购房者的热情,而是一盆冷水当头泼下。     

楼市回暖任重道远

楼市什么时候回暖?笔者认为,眼下的楼市,回暖并不是开发商或购房者单方所能决定的,一定是双方博弈的结果,而两种力量的平衡点就是楼市底部。一个行业的健康发展,需要买卖双方的共赢。然而,在房地产行业,多数开发商往往最大限度地把升值预期套现,拿走利润而把风险留给购房者(尤其是商业地产和投资型住宅)。这种行为导致了楼市买卖双方的对立。所以,当楼市低迷、     

2008福州楼市高峰对话：巅峰论楼市房价是涨还是跌？

2007年已经落幕。这一年的楼市充满戏剧性。火热的市场在经“地王”事件后达到沸腾,近乎疯狂。又忽然遭遇政策的“寒冬”,市场骤然冷却。开发商、购房者还没来得及消化楼市“牛市”的火热,转眼又对萧瑟一片的楼市无所适从。     

楼市迎来抄底时机?

目前的惨淡楼市,愁坏了开发商,也愁坏了消费者。开发商愁的是,楼市何日走出困境;消费者愁的是,现在出手是否合适——今年10月以来,中央政府多部门联合出拳,地方政府频频救市,这是2005年以来以紧缩为     

余温未尽，死灰复燃——中国楼市问题的症结、思路与对策

今年的五一黄金周变成了“买楼周”或“楼价狂涨周”，相信是很多人包括政府高层始料不及的。据了解，相关部门在高层的过问及直接批示下，正通过不同渠道，进行大面积的广泛调研，相关对策将在短期内或在本文刊出时，就会推出。     

The housing market

The housing market has gained further momentum with activity accelerating and prices continuing to increase strongly on all measures in Q3. This trend is expected to continue, with the latest survey data from RICS reporting strong growth in new buyer enquiries and – to a lesser extent – in new instructions…     

The housing market

The recovery in the housing market has continued, with house prices picking up on all measures over the past few months. And there are encouraging signs of underlying strength, with the latest survey data from RICS reporting healthy growth in both new buyer enquiries and new instructions…     

Forecasting the US housing market

The recent housing market boom and bust in the United States illustrates that real estate returns are characterized by short-term positive serial correlation and long-term mean reversion to fundamental values. We develop an econometric model that includes these two components, but with weights that vary dynamically through time depending on recent forecasting performances. The smooth transition weighting mechanism can assign more weight to positive serial correlation in boom times, and more weight to reversal to fundamental values during downturns. We estimate the model with US national house price index data. In-sample, the switching mechanism significantly improves the fit of the model. In an out-of-sample forecasting assessment the model performs better than competing benchmark models.     

Dynamics of the housing market

This paper deals with the derivation of the rent values of the standing stock of the housing market with a continuous vintage approach, under malleable stock and homogeneous population assumptions, and under dynamic conditions: population and income growth, technological obsolesence, and a continuous upward shift and elasticity change in the supply function. The core of the model is a Volterra nonlinear integral equation of the second kind, and results are shown in relation to existence, uniqueness and stability. Finally, a spatial-dynamic model is specified by a Fredholm-Volterra nonlinear integral equation, framing the analysis of the housing filtering process with the Burgess-Hoyt concept of directional growth in urban development.     

房地产市场走向分化

今年上半年,房价总水平出现高位涨势趋缓的迹象,整个行业面临全面调整,预计下半年房价涨幅将稳步回落,市场将稳步发展今年以来,房地产市场延续着去年末销售量下降的状况,市场继续低迷,未来走势如何,社会各界十分关注。关键是应该认     

Price discrimination in the housing market

There is little credible evidence on whether price discrimination exists in the housing market. Using a large sample of single-family home sales from Florida where both the race of the seller and buyer are known, we present evidence using the traditional and Harding et al. [HRS, Harding, J.P., Rosenthal, S., Sirmans, D.F., 2003. Establishing bargaining power in the market for existing homes. The Review of Economics and Statistics 85, (1) 178–188] approaches to empirical estimation. Omitted variable bias is found to plague the traditional approach. Results from following the HRS approach indicate that price discrimination exists by whites and Hispanics against blacks and Asians. Price discrimination against blacks is restricted to non-majority black neighborhoods and is smaller in magnitude in neighborhoods containing younger and more educated homeowners.     

Racial discrimination in the Boston housing market

Recent studies suggest that price differentials between what whites and blacks pay for housing are largely a function of changes in supply and demand in the two submarkets. These studies, however, estimate models that assume a unified housing market. As a result, imputed prices of housing attributes cannot vary with location, and the analyses obscure important racial price differentials. Based on a more realistic and complex housing market theory, the model described in this paper indicates that housing prices are substantially higher in the ghetto and transition areas than in white areas, and that within the same area blacks must pay more than whites for equivalent housing.     

Predicting turning points in the housing market

We identify leading indicators of changes in the housing market and compare their performance in predicting turning points. Being able to predict turning points is of importance to the home building industry, homeowners, and makers of housing policy. Our leading indicators include the Wells Fargo/NAHB Housing Market Index, two of its forward looking components, and an index of consumer sentiment regarding purchasing a home. Our comparison tests include Granger causality and a Bayesian predictor of the probability of a turning point. We find that the measure of consumer sentiment performs relatively well compared to the HMI in predicting home permits, housing starts, and new home sales.     

Simultaneity in the market for housing characteristics

The nature of simultaneity in the markets for housing characteristics is examined. Simultaneity is found to arise in the implicit markets for individual characteristics because of the presence of nonlinearity in the market (hedonic) price function for housing. However, this simultaneity is not the kind discussed by S. Rosen [J. Political Econ. 82, 34–55 (1974)] between firm supplies and household demands. As a result, the Rosen suggestion of identifying demand with firm supply shifters is inappropriate. Among the alternative approaches to identification, the most desirable involve use of data over two or more markets in which residence for a given household is exogenous to the choice of housing.