The role of government aid to firms during the transition to a market economy: Russia 1992-1994

The paper develops two economic grounds for gradualism in the context of the Russian move toward a market economy: one for the support of output through subsidies, another for similar support through credit. The first argument relates to the usual case for softening the blow to a sector hit by an adverse, permanent shock. The other argument depends on the absence of a well-functioning capital market. Having presented the two arguments, we discuss the extent to which they justify the course of Russian policy. Essentially we show that the arguments support much less gradualism than actually took place in Russia in 1992 and 1993.     

Transition from cash benefits to work: The case of Slovenia

The paper investigates the working of the unemployment insurance and social assistance systems during Slovenia's transition, when both systems came under increased pressure. It describes unemployment insurance and social assistance programs, reviews trends in number of beneficiaries and expenditures, and identifies main issues in getting unemployed cash benefit recipients back to work: deficient targeting, too easy access to cash benefits to the better-off, adverse incentives created by cash benefit systems, and doubletrack provision of means-tested assistance to the unemployed.     

Robust political economy: The case of antitrust

The notion of robust political economy is applied to antitrust. It is argued that the universalizability of policy rules is crucial if both the knowledge problem and the incentive problem in antitrust are taken seriously. Policy recommendations of Williamson are compared with those of Hayek. It is further argued that the notion of universalizability is central not only with regard to antitrust but also with regard to a host of other policy areas. JEL Code B52, B53, D02, D80, K21, K40, L40. The author thanks his collaborators Lorenz Blume, Kim Eun Young, Janina Satzer and Michael Seebauer as well as Anne van Aaken for helpful comments and suggestions.     

The impact of climate change skepticism on adaptation in a market economy

Climate change will increase the risk of temperature extremes. Induced innovation could offset some of this threat. This paper explores the demand and supply for climate adaptation innovation in a market economy. Such innovation attenuates the past relationship between the population death rate and extreme heat. Climate change induces this innovation because the rising temperatures increase demand for self protection products and for profit firms respond to these incentives. We then augment the model to introduce “climate skeptics”. Such skeptics reject the claim that the world’s average temperature is rising and thus do not increasingly demand adaptation products. In an economy featuring no government to enact optimal taxation, we quantify how rational agents are affected by the presence of climate skeptics.     

The impact from changes in stock market valuations on investment: new economy versus old economy

This paper investigates whether there is a different impact from changes in ‘new’ and ‘old’ economy stock valuations on private investment for seven OECD economies. A vector autoregressive model is estimated for each individual country, using quarterly data over the period 1990–2000. It is found that the impact from changes in valuations of new economy stocks to investment is roughly the same in North America and in the United Kingdom as in continental Europe. By contrast, the impact from changes in old economy stock valuations on investment is, in general, larger in North America and in the United Kingdom than in continental Europe. Finally, the results suggest that in continental Europe the impact on investment from changes in the valuation of new economy stocks is bigger than for old economy stocks, whereas for North America and the United Kingdom, the impact is more similar.     

The political economy of immigration in a direct democracy: The case of Switzerland

In this paper, we analyze the determination of immigration policy in a direct democracy setting. We formulate a model of voting and participation behavior integrating instrumental and expressive motivations. The model is estimated using data drawn from a survey carried out after a vote in Switzerland in 2000 on a popular initiative proposing to implement immigration restrictions. The model enables us to recover estimates of participation costs and preferences towards immigration and analyze how these preferences are translated into actual voting outcomes. The results reveal a substantial gap (“participation bias”) between attitudes towards immigration in the general population (43% favorable to restrictions) and the outcome of the vote (26%).     

The convergence dynamics of a transition economy: The case of the Czech Republic

In this paper we develop a two-country dynamic general equilibrium model by means of which we seek to explain the long-run path of a transition economy. The model's novel feature is the inclusion of quality investment in the standard framework of applied general equilibrium two-country models. This feature is necessary to explain the trend in the real exchange rate. We present an application to the Czech economy.     

Price differentials in a homogenous product market: The case of water

This paper examines the existing price differentials for raw water along the Rio Grande. An extremely active spot market for this good, more than 926 transactions have been made over a five-year time period. Statistical analysis shows a significant difference between the price paid for water by irrigators or municipalities and industry. Even if price differentials did exist at the beginning, convergence would be expected over time for this homogenous good. However, statistical analysis shows no sign of convergence. Investigations have suggested that differentials may continue to exist due not to the lack of information, but to misinformation.     

Towards an information economy : The case of Singapore

Recent empirical studies have documented the emergence of information-based economies in developed countries within Europe, the U.S.A., Japan, and Australia. Casual observations suggest that the newly industrializing country of Singapore is proceeding towards a similar trend. The primary purpose of this paper is to account for the share of Singapore's national product which originates from informational activities. In particular, we define and estimate the size of Singapore's information sector within an input-output framework. Our results indicated that a sizable portion of Singapore's economy is information-based. In view of the significant penetration of informational activities in economic production, advances in communication technology and concomitant improvements in information-handling capabilities are bound to affect factor productivities and incomes with consequences for a country's pattern of employment and production structure. It is anticipated that an economics of communication becomes necessary for an awareness of communication technology as a choice variable in economic planning. We conclude our discussion with an assessment of the admissability of an information sector concept in economic analysis and the usefulness of empirical studies based on such a concept.     

Investment allocation and urbanization in socialist economic development: The case of Czechoslovakia of

This paper tests two hypotheses about economic ;fficiency of development strategies of socialist countries. The first is that they overinvest in industry and that increased investment in agriculture would increase the output growth rate. The second is that efforts to limit urbanization have enabled these countries to grow more rapidly by minimizing the need for urban-infrastructure investments. The hypotheses are tested by means of counterfactual simulations performed with an econometric model of Czechoslovakia. We find that growth would have been faster only in the long run, had more investment been directed to agriculture. Urbanization policies appeared only to control inflationary pressures.     

Wage and price determination in a labour-exporting economy: The case of Ireland

A model designed to incorporate external influences through the labour and goods markets on the rates of domestic wage and price inflation is specified and estimated from postwar Irish data. It consists of equations explaining the rate of change of prices, migration, the supply of labour, the rate of change of wages and three identities. The model is both simultaneous and nonlinear, and an appropriate modification of the two-stage least-squares estimation technique is used. The estimated equations explain between 71 percent and 84 percent of the variance in the dependent variables. Since two of these are proportionate first differences, the remaining two a ratio and a first difference, this might be deemed satisfactory. However, some of the individual coefficient estimates are not.     

Transition to market economics: Employment and informal activity in rural areas

According to the neo-liberal model, the high levels of unemployment and collapsing real wages of transition will reallocate labor to new activities. But whether and how households actually reallocate labor is the subject of growing debate. We use survey data from Bulgaria to develop a typology of rural households based on their labor allocation characteristics. We find a diversity of outcomes. A significant share of households experience no change in labor allocation, some shift labor to own commercial enterprises, but a significant minority are displaced from the emerging market economy. Potential for informal activity among these households appears limited. Of great concern is the regional concentration of such households.     

Transition to market economics: Employment and informal activity in rural areas

According to the neo-liberal model, the high levels of unemployment and collapsing real wages of transition will reallocate labor to new activities. But whether and how households actually reallocate labor is the subject of growing debate. We use survey data from Bulgaria to develop a typology of rural households based on their labor allocation characteristics. We find a diversity of outcomes. A significant share of households experience no change in labor allocation, some shift labor to own commercial enterprises, but a significant minority are displaced from the emerging market economy. Potential for informal activity among these households appears limited. Of great concern is the regional concentration of such households.