Seasonal and stochastic effects in commodity forward curves

In this paper we develop a new model for the dynamics of forward curves of commodities exhibiting seasonalities, such as natural gas, electricity or agricultural commodities. In the existing literature on the subject, the first state variable in multi-factor models is the commodity price, which combines seasonal and stochastic features and may be unobservable. We propose to use instead the average forward price, which is devoid of seasonality and conveys a more robust representation of the current forward curve level. The second factor in the model is a quantity analogous to the stochastic convenience yield, which accounts for the random changes in the forward curve shape. The well-known cost-of-carry relationship is significantly improved by introducing a deterministic seasonal premium within the convenience yield. We develop model estimation procedures and apply them to a number of energy markets.     

The stochastic behavior of common stock variances : Value, leverage and interest rate effects

This paper examines the relation between the variance of equity returns and several explanatory variables. It is found that equity variances have a strong positive association with both financial leverage and, contrary to the predictions of the options literature, interest rates. To a substantial degree, the negative elasticity of variance with respect to value of equity that is part of market folklore is found to be attributable to financial leverage. A maximum likehood estimator is developed for this elasticity that is substantially more efficient than extant estimation procedures.     

Experience, information asymmetry, and rational forecast bias

This study examines whether it is ever rational for analysts to post biased estimates and how information asymmetry and analyst experience factor into the decision. Using a construct where analysts wish to minimize their forecasting error, we model forecasted earnings when analysts combine private information with consensus estimates to determine the optimal forecast bias, i.e., the deviation from the consensus. We show that the analyst??s rational bias increases with information asymmetry, but is concavely related with experience. Novice analysts post estimates similar to the consensus but as they become more experienced and develop private information channels, their estimates become biased and deviated from the consensus. Highly seasoned analysts, who have superior analytical skills and valuable relationships, need not post biased forecasts.     

The effects of analyst forecasts and earnings trends on perceptions of management forecast credibility

We examine whether analyst forecasts influence investors’ perceptions of the credibility of a good news management earnings forecast. We hypothesize that the effect of analyst forecasts will depend on whether the analyst forecast confirms management’s forecast and the extent to which management’s forecast is consistent with the prior earnings trend. Findings indicate that the positive effect of a confirming analyst forecast is greater when the management forecast is trend inconsistent than when it is trend consistent. The negative effect of a disconfirming analyst forecast does not differ based on management forecast trend consistency.     

Analyst characteristics, timing of forecast revisions, and analyst forecasting ability

We first examine whether analysts with certain characteristics that prior research has identified are related to superior forecasting ability systematically time their forecast revisions later in the fiscal quarter. We then examine whether this superior ability persists after controlling for the timing advantage by using relative forecast error, a measure that largely eliminates the timing advantage of recent forecasts. Using a sample of quarterly earnings forecast revisions over the 20-year period from 1990 to 2009, we find that analysts with more firm-specific and general experience and more accurate prior-period forecasts, analysts employed by larger brokerage firms, and analysts who follow fewer industries and companies tend to revise forecasts later in the quarter. We also find that analyst characteristics that are positively correlated with revision timing are negatively related to relative forecast errors. These results are consistent with analyst characteristics being useful proxies for analyst forecasting ability and analysts with greater ability revising forecasts later in the quarter.     

Stochastic risk premiums,stochastic skewness in currency options,and stochastic discount factors in international economies

We develop models of stochastic discount factors in international economies that produce stochastic risk premiums and stochastic skewness in currency options. We estimate the models using time-series returns and option prices on three currency pairs that form a triangular relation. Estimation shows that the average risk premium in Japan is larger than that in the US or the UK, the global risk premium is more persistent and volatile than the country-specific risk premiums, and investors respond differently to different shocks. We also identify high-frequency jumps in each economy but find that only downside jumps are priced. Finally, our analysis shows that the risk premiums are economically compatible with movements in stock and bond market fundamentals.     

Asset allocation and age effects in retirement savings choices

We examine the asset allocation decisions of members of three large Australian retirement savings funds. Superannuation Guarantee legislation in 1992 made Australian employees compulsory investors by requiring employers to contribute a fixed proportion of earnings to a superannuation fund on behalf of employees. A majority of these employees can choose an investment strategy for these contributions. We examine how actual investment strategy and asset allocation choices of members change with age in view of the conventional wisdom that individuals allocate less to risky assets as they age and investments theory which provides conflicting advice on the issue.     

Analyst forecast,accounting conservatism and the related valuation implications

This study investigates whether financial analysts incorporate accounting conservatism into their earnings forecasts and whether it is more difficult for them to forecast earnings for less conservative firms, and then examines the impact of the findings on the return predictability of the value‐to‐price (V/P) ratio. After controlling for the other factors affecting forecast accuracy, such as earnings predictability and information uncertainty, I find that analysts incorporate accounting conservatism into their earnings forecasts and that forecasting earnings is more difficult for less conservative firms. Consequently, the return predictability of the V/P ratio is stronger for more conservative firms, and previously reported return predictability of the V/P ratio is an average across firms with differing levels of conservatism.     

分析师特征券商规模与盈利预测

本文选取2002-2008年国泰安分析师预测数据,考察分析师特征对盈利预测误差的影响.研究发现,分析9币预测经验、券商规模、努力程度与其预测误差呈显著负相关;任务难度与其预测误差显著正相关.进一步的研究显示,分析师个人特征以及券商规模对其盈利预测误差的影响在盈利公司和亏损公司之间存在着非对称性,男女性别的差异也导致分析师个人特征在影响盈利预测准确度上存在着系统性差异.本文的研究结论为公众投资者判断分析师预测能力提供了必要的经验证据和决策支持.     

Distribution forecast targeting in an open-economy,macroeconomic volatility and financial implications

In an open-economy faced with parameter uncertainty, this paper uses distribution forecasts to investigate the impact of alternative inflation targeting policies on macroeconomic volatility and their potential implications on financial stability. Theoretically, Domestic Inflation Targeting (DIT) leads to less volatility than Consumer Price Index Inflation Targeting (CPIIT) for several macroeconomic variables and, in particular, for the interest rate. Empirically, a positive relationship between interest rate volatility and financial instability emerges for the US, UK and Sweden since the early 1990s. Bridging theory and empirical evidence, we conclude that the choice of the inflation targeting regime has an important impact on macroeconomic volatility and potential implications for financial stability.     

欧洲银行业重点风险提示和展望

对于牵一发动全身的欧洲银行业,如何摆脱危机、走出困境,是世界各国的相关利益方共同关心的话题.如上所述,由于欧洲银行业风险具有深层次的结构原因,除了各国本身经济结构的问题外,欧洲联盟是否最终实现是关乎欧洲银行业发展的一个重要条件.无论是欧洲一体化进程中的各国专业化分工发展体系,或是欧元的最终流通、欧洲货币政策的统一实现,还是欧洲银行机构的泛欧化、国际化的经营模式,其前提条件都是建立在一个统一的欧洲国家基础上的.     

International equity flows, marginal conditional stochastic dominance and diversification

The weak empirical evidence linking diversification and international equity flows calls into question the diversification paradigm at the international level and the analytical framework it implies. Using the concept of Marginal Conditional Stochastic Dominance (MCSD) to estimate the diversification opportunities, this paper reexamines the role that diversification opportunities play in the determination of international equity flows. It provides strong evidence that when diversification opportunities are measured in terms of MCSD, they are significant determinants of international equity flows. Capital flows into dominant markets and flees markets that are dominated. These results are robust with respect to a range of conventional control variables documented in the outstanding literature.     

The effects of customer age and recovery strategies in a service failure setting

The aim of this article is to explore the relationship between the type of service failure, age and the customer's negative emotions after a service failure; as well as the relationship between these emotions, the recovery strategies executed and service recovery satisfaction. The proposed model is tested on a sample of financial services customers who suffered some type of failure. The results indicate that the customer's age has a negative impact on the intensity of the negative emotions experienced after a service failure. In addition, the type of service failure (process or outcome) interacts with the age variable on its effect on these negative emotions. Finally, results also show that recovery strategies offset the negative effect of negative emotions on customer satisfaction and that a compensation strategy is more efficient if offered quickly.     

Analyst forecast characteristics and the cost of debt

We examine the relation between analyst forecast characteristics and the cost of debt financing. Consistent with the view that the information contained in analysts’ forecasts is economically significant across asset classes, we find that analyst activity reduces bond yield spreads. We also find that the economic impact of analysts is most pronounced when uncertainty about firm value is highest (that is, when firms have high idiosyncratic risk). Our findings are robust to controls for private information in equity prices and level of corporate disclosures. Overall, the results indicate that the information contained in analyst forecasts is valued outside the equity market and provide an additional channel in which better information is associated with a lower cost of capital.     

French and U.S. trading of cross-listed stocks around the period of U.S. decimalization: Volume, spreads, and depth effects

We analyze how U.S. decimalization affects stocks cross-listed in France (Euronext) and the U.S. (NYSE). The French stocks examined are much larger than the non-U.S. stocks examined in prior studies of decimalization, and their U.S. trading is likely to be dominated by institutions. So, we explore whether a reduction in depths in the U.S. due to decimalization makes the U.S. market less competitive for institutions trading these French stocks. We find evidence consistent with the above. First, the average NYSE trade size for these stocks relative to that on Euronext declines substantially after decimalization. Second, we categorize individual trades by the number of shares traded. We find that mainly driven by large trades, the NYSE proportion of trading of French firms declines markedly after decimalization. Third, using regression analysis, we find that the decline in the U.S. share of institutional trading volume is significantly positively related with the decline in NYSE depths relative to Euronext, and the decline is greater for French firms. Overall, we find consistent results indicating a migration of institutional order flow in French firms to France after NYSE decimalization. Also, intraday analysis indicates that the institutional volume in both France and the U.S. is greatest when both the markets are open.     

Target CEO age,ownership decisions,and takeover outcomes

This paper examines the effect of target CEO age, in association with target corporate governance mechanisms, on the ownership decisions and takeover outcomes in eight East and Southeast Asian countries. The results show that acquirers are more likely to select partial-control acquisitions of target firms managed by older CEOs, and that the impact of target CEO age on the partial-control acquisition propensity is much stronger in emerging markets relative to developed economies. The study further finds that target CEO age leads to a lower probability of obtaining desired equity ownership levels compared to unmatched ownership achievements, controlling for target corporate governance structures. The findings also run robustness checks regarding variations in the compulsory acquisition cut-off in the sample countries. Overall, this paper adds to the growing of mainstream corporate governance literature regarding the relevance of CEO personal characteristics in agency problems for corporate decisions.     

Valuing executive stock options: performance hurdles, early exercise and stochastic volatility

Accounting standards require companies to assess the fair value of any stock options granted to executives and employees. We develop a model for accurately valuing executive and employee stock options, focusing on performance hurdles, early exercise and uncertain volatility. We apply the model in two case studies and show that properly computed fair values can be significantly lower than traditional Black–Scholes values. We then explore the implications for pay-for-performance sensitivity and the design of effective share-based incentive schemes. We find that performance hurdles can require a much greater fraction of total compensation to be a fixed salary, if pre-existing incentive levels are to be maintained.     

Implied volatilities,stochastic interest rates,and currency futures options valuation: an empirical investigation

Different models of pricing currency call and put options on futures are empirically tested. Option prices are determined using different models and compared to actual market prices. Option prices are determined using historical as well as implied volatility. The different models tested include both constant and stochastic interest rate models. To determine if the model prices are different from the market prices, regression analysis and paired t-tests are performed. To see which model misprices the least, root mean square errors are determined. It is found that better results are obtained when implied volatility is used. Stochastic interest rate models perform better than constant interest rate models.     

Overnight public information,order placement,and price discovery during the pre-opening period

This study examines the impact of corporate news announcements released overnight on price discovery during the pre-opening period in the Australian Securities Exchange. Our results suggest that the presence of these announcements increases the efficiency of indicative opening prices and that the intensity of these announcements significantly influences the aggressiveness of pre-opening orders. Using earnings announcements to compare the speed of price adjustments in response to overnight and daytime information of a homogeneous type, we find that prices respond immediately to overnight news upon the commencement of trading, whereas adjustments based on trading-hours news tend not to be instantaneous. Overall, our evidence highlights the important role of the pre-opening period in price discovery and the prospect of further enhancing this role by timing the release of public information to occur during non-trading hours.     

Productivity and efficiency at large and community banks in the US: A Bayesian true random effects stochastic distance frontier analysis

This paper compares the productivity and efficiency of large banks and community banks in the United States over the period 1997–2006. This comparison is performed by estimating a true random effects stochastic distance frontier model—a model that is capable of disentangling unobserved heterogeneity from inefficiency—within a Bayesian framework. We find that failure to consider unobserved heterogeneity results in a misleading ranking of banks and mismeasured technical efficiency, productivity growth, and returns to scale. Our results show that, compared with community banks, large banks have experienced much higher productivity growth and higher levels of returns to scale. Our estimates of total factor productivity growth show a clear downward trend for both large and community banks, and our decomposition of the output-distance-function-based Divisia productivity index indicates that technical change is the driving force behind this trend.