中国工业行业资本-劳动替代弹性估计及影响因素研究

基于超越对数生产函数的随机前沿模型估计2001—2015年中国工业行业的资本-劳动替代弹性,并对其影响因素进行分析,结果表明：劳动密集型行业的资本-劳动替代弹性普遍高于技术密集型行业,而后者又普遍高于资本密集型行业;行业开放程度、研发密度、产权属性、资本-劳动比、资产负债率、《劳动合同法》实施以及金融危机等因素都会影响资本-劳动替代弹性。     

产业内贸易的技术进步效应研究——以我国高技术产业为例

本研究根据1996-2008年的相关数据,以我国高技术产业的产业内贸易和技术进步为研究对象,在对高技术产业的产业内贸易程度和技术进步率进行定性分析的基础上,采用Engle-Granger协整检验和回归等方法,对我国高技术产业产业内贸易对于技术进步的影响进行实证分析。结果表明,我国高技术产业的产业内贸易对我国技术进步具有一定的正面效应。因此,我们应该充分利用产业内贸易引发的技术外溢与技术扩散效应,不单纯的引进和模仿他国技术,而是自主开发和技术创新,提高我国高技术产业的技术含量,提升高技术产品各产业链的整体竞争力。     

河南省物流业与零售业发展关系研究

在分析河南省物流业与零售业发展现状的基础上,通过计算有关指标的相关系数和灰色关联度,对两者之间的相关性进行了定量测度,并进行Granger因果关系检验。研究结果显示:河南省物流业与零售业发展之间存在着高度的正相关性,物流业发展是零售业发展的格兰杰原因,而零售业发展对物流业发展的推动作用不显著。     

论国际垂直专业化分工的工资效应——基于浙江制造业数据的实证分析

在全球生产网络化的背景下,中国制造业广泛参与国际垂直专业化分工,对劳动收入分配产生了重要影响。本文以外向经济较为发达的浙江省为例,测算了浙江26个制造业部门参与垂直专业化分工的程度,并就垂直化专业分工对浙江制造业工资收入的影响进行了实证分析。研究结果显示:浙江制造业部门参与国际垂直专业化分工总体上提升了行业工资收入水平;垂直专业化分工对制造业工资收入的促进作用在资本密集型行业中比在劳动密集型行业中更大。本文最后就如何提升浙江制造业工资水平、缩小行业工资差距提出了相应对策建议。     

Bankruptcy and steel plant shutdowns

The bankruptcies resulting from the American steel industry downturn in the period, 1999–2002, raise the question of whether the bankruptcy process itself led to permanent plant shutdowns and job losses. With information on 110 of the steel plants operating in the United States in 1994, this paper develops empirical models of steel plant closure and firm bankruptcy to see if the latter impacts on the former. Based on survival models, the results provide support for the hypothesis that the bankruptcy of steel companies could have led to viable steel plants closing, and thus, the bankruptcies in themselves may have caused permanent inefficient employment loss.     

Interindustry R&D Spillovers for Electrical and Electronic Products: The Canadian Case

This paper estimates the effects of interindustry R&D spillovers on the cost and production structure for 10 Canadian manufacturing industries. Because of their high-tech nature and productivity performance, spillovers from electrical and electronic products are distinguished from other spillover sources. Generally, spillovers from electrical and electronic products generate cost reductions and render production processes for Canadian manufacturing industries more capital intensive (i.e. either more physical or R&D capital intensive). Social rates of return for R&D capital are calculated for all 10 industries. The social rates are 5–11 times greater than are the private rates. Indeed, the social rates are high for all the industries. This implies that the electrical and electronic products industry is an important interindustry spillover source but, like other industries, a major spillover-using industry.     

The duality of bankruptcy process in Finland

Standard bankruptcy prediction methods lead to models weighted by the types of failure firms included in the estimation sample. These kinds of weighted models may lead to severe classification errors when they are applied to such types of failing (and non-failing) firms which are in the minority in the estimation sample (frequency effect). The purpose of this study is to present a bankruptcy prediction method based on identifying two different failure types, i.e. the solidity and liquidity bankruptcy firms, to avoid the frequency effect. Both of the types are depicted by a theoretical gambler's ruin model of its own to yield an approximation of failure probability separately for both types. These models are applied to the data of randomly selected Finnish bankrupt and non-bankrupt firms. A logistic regression model based on a set of financial variables is used as a benchmark model. Empirical results show that the resulting heavily solidity-weighted logistic model may lead to severe errors in classifying non-bankrupt firms. The present approach will avoid these kinds of error by separately evaluating the probability of the solidity and liquidity bankruptcy; the firm is not classified bankrupt as long as neither of the probabilities exceeds the critical value. This leads the present prediction method slightly to outperform the logistic model in the overall classification accuracy.     

Using DEA to improve the management of congestion in Chinese industries (1981–1997)

Congestion is said to be present when increases in inputs result in output reductions. An “iron rice bowl” policy instituted in China shortly after the revolution led by Mao Tze Tung resulted in congestion that ultimately led to bankruptcy in the textile industry, and near bankruptcy in other industries. A major policy shift away from the “iron rice bowl policy” in 1990 led to massive layoffs and increasing social tensions. Were these massive layoffs necessary? Extensions of data envelopment analysis models effected in the present paper identified inefficiencies in the management of congestion. Using textiles and automobiles for illustration, it is shown how elimination of such managerial inefficiencies could have led to output augmentation without reducing employment. Thus, even in the presence of congestion, it proved to be possible to identify additional (managerial) inefficiencies that provided opportunities for improvement. In the heavily congested textile industry, these output augmentations could have been accompanied by reductions in the amounts of capital used (as an added bonus). In any case, we show how to identify and evaluate new types of efficiency—viz., the efficiency with which needed (or desired) inefficiencies are managed.     

增值税“扩围”改革对行业税负变动的预期影响

增值税“扩围”改革将影响到各行业的流转税负担.利用投入产出表数据,测算增值税“扩围”改革对目前属于增值税征收范围的行业(即“增值税行业”)和目前属于营业税征收范围行业(即“营业税行业”)流转税税负变动的影响,结果显示:增值税行业的总体税负将有小幅下降,服务中间投入比率是影响各增值税行业减税效应大小的关键因素;各营业税行业的税负变化情况差异较大,商务服务业等大多数行业的税负将减轻,但租赁业等部分行业的税负可能会加重,税改后的增值税税率水平选择与中间投入比率是影响各营业税行业税负变动的主要因素.为了促进行业间税负公平,减少增值税“扩围”改革对行业发展的不利影响,有必要适当降低租赁业、交通运输业的税率水平.     

Determinants of credit card delinquency and bankruptcy: Macroeconomic factors

In this paper, we examine how county unemployment rates affect consumers' delinquency and bankruptcy behavior by focusing on the credit card market. In particular, after controlling for credit supply and shocks like divorce and health coverage we investigate whether consumer propensity for delinquency and bankruptcy changes with respect to the macroeconomic fluctuations across counties. Our results show that county unemployment rates significantly influence delinquency. The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of FleetBoston Financial.     

制造业与生产性服务业协同发展对制造效率影响的差异性研究

研究目标：制造业与生产性服务业协同发展对制造效率的差异性影响。研究方法：采用灰色GM（1,N）模型和Malmquist指数模型分别测度制造业与生产性服务业间协同演化发展程度以及制造业各子行业TFP的变化情况,运用门槛回归模型分析两产业间协同发展对制造业生产效率影响的差异性作用。研究发现：制造业与生产性服务业间的良好协同发展对制造业效率的提升具有显著的促进影响,但在不同产业规模、发展水平、创新能力的门槛区间内,其两产业间协同效应对制造业效率的影响呈现非线性特征。研究创新：针对制造业与生产性服务业间互动关系的不确定性和随机性特征,探索性地运用灰色GM（1,N）模型准确测度两产业间协同发展程度;突破既定的线性单向思维,考虑到制造业各子行业间的差异性特征,探究制造业与生产性服务业间协同发展对制造业效率影响的非线性阈值效应。研究价值：检验两产业协同发展对制造业生产效率影响的非线性门槛效应是否源于制造业产业规模、发展水平和创新能力的异质性,为政府制定差异化的产业政策提供参考和理论依据。     

Credit and self-employment

The US personal bankruptcy system allows debtors to discharge uncollateralized debts if they give up assets in excess of a threshold known as an “exemption”. However, since exemptions erode repayment incentives, they may increase borrowing costs. Our paper evaluates the tradeoff between credit costs and the insurance against failure created by bankruptcy exemptions. We find that exemptions change self-employment rates and the timing, size, and financing of projects. We also find that the positive relationship between wealth and self-employment rates may not arise from credit constraints: such a relationship is present even when credit is plentiful at low interest rates.     

The influence of industry concentration on merger motives—empirical evidence from machinery industry mergers

By linking industrial organization theory and capital market research, we provide empirical evidence that merger motives of firms are influenced by underlying industry concentration. Analyzing wealth effects on target, acquirer and rival firms in the machinery industry, we observe significant different capital market reactions among merger announcements in dependence of underlying industry concentration. suggesting that different takeover motives prevail in fragmented and concentrated industries. In contrast to previous studies, we find besides efficiency motives evidence for monopolistic collusion motives in fragmented industries. Mergers in concentrated industries are primarily motivated to achieve productive efficiency gains. The absence of collusion motives may be an indication for a successful enforcement of antitrust legislation. Our results suggest that the magnitude of the influence of industry concentration in empirical merger motive research may have been previously under-estimated leading to a potential distortion of results.     

中国分行业资本存量估算：1990~2014年

通过借鉴中国资本存量已有研究文献的成果,以细分行业差别化的折旧率估算为基础,通过分析投资结构和折旧率的关系,估算出第二、第三产业和总量的时变折旧率,系统地估算出1990~2014年总量、三次产业和细分行业的资本存量。估算结果及分析表明:由于投资结构的变化,总量、第三产业折旧率呈下降趋势,第二产业折旧率呈先上升再下降趋势;目前在我国,“过度投资”和“投资不足”并存,且“过度投资”的是资本效率比较低的行业,“投资不足”的是资本效率比较高的行业。解决“投资不足”问题的关键是打破行业垄断,尤其是行政垄断,引入市场竞争机制。     

中国XBRL财务报告分类标准研究——基于聚类分析的行业扩展视角

分析不同行业在信息披露的异同点有利于国家进行财务报告分类标准的行业扩展.本文以2011年上交所的815份XBRL报告实例为研究样本,对每家上市公司的XBRL报告实例与上交所分类标准进行匹配,通过实证分析发现不同行业在分类标准使用上存在很大程度的行业差异,但差异并非在所有行业之间都存在.通过聚类分析方法进一步研究,根据各报表项目的披露情况,将21个行业大类划分为7类,并为未来中国分类标准的行业扩展提供制定建议.     

政府补助影响因素的行业和企业特征

本文利用2006年至2008年上市公司中政府补助的数据,经验性地验证了政府补助范围、金额和种类的变化状况;政府补助与否的行业特征以及补助强度大小的行业特征;接受补助公司与没有接受补助公司在企业特征方面的差异。结果发现：科研创新补助和荣誉相关补助的公司从2006年到2008年增加了一倍以上,但与生产相关的补助金额却最多,上升幅度也最快。分行业接受补助公司的数量比例与按照补助强度划分的行业结果完全不同,社会服务业、电力、煤气及水的生产和供应业、房地产业是补助强度最大的三个行业。企业特征中,盈利能力、成长性、偿债能力、人工效率等对企业能否接受补助没有显著影响,而分别以资产总额、主营业务收入、员工人数来衡量的规模则是企业能否接受补助的显著因素。该文的结论对我国今后的政府补助具有一定的政策意义。     

物流业与三次产业发展的互动关系实证研究

以物流业和三次产业为研究对象,运用计量经济理论的模型和方法,对中国1978～2009年物流业与三个产业发展的协整与因果互动机制进行了实证分析。研究结果表明:从协整检验和误差修正模型看,中国物流业与三次产业之间呈现出比较稳定的长期均衡发展趋势,短期波动也起着正的影响作用;从格兰杰因果关系检验看,中国物流业与第一产业和第二产业有单向的因果关系,与第三产业有双向因果关系。     

全球化背景下中国行业间工资增长差异的演变及其原因

借助非竞争型投入产出模型,从国民经济投入产出系统的角度分析1987~2007年全球化背景下中国行业工资增长的差异及其原因。研究表明,1987~2007年我国资本密集型产业、劳动密集型产业、服务业的行业人均工资增长表现出极大的差异性。究其原因,在不同阶段国内消费、投资、出口、技术进步等因素对行业工资的不同拉动效应,是导致近年来中国行业间工资增长差异迅速扩大的重要原因。行业层面的结果分解表明,1997年以后驱动我国各行业人均工资增长的动力来源发生了根本变化,出口对我国第二产业、劳动密集型产业行业工资增长的贡献显著上升,而国内消费和国内投资对第一、三产业、资本密集型产业以及垄断性行业工资增长的贡献显著上升。     

Trade and factor intensity,and the transmission of the global shock to labor: A panel analysis of the fall of the labor income share in the Mexican manufacturing sector

The paper studies the fall of the labor income share in Mexico, contrasting the role of trade and factor intensity as transmission channels of the China shock of 2001. It finds that, while the skill, technological and —more surprisingly— trade intensity of Mexican industries were largely irrelevant, capital intensity played a key role: in particular, the higher was the industries’ initial capital intensity, the more vulnerable they were to the transmission of the global shock to labor. The finding is consistent with the proposition that industrial integration, concentrated in industries that are capital-intensive from the perspective of developing countries, facilitated the transmission of the shock. Results come from the estimation of panel equations for the annual change in the labor share across Mexican manufacturing industries, where transmission is measured by the correlation between changes in the United States and Mexican industry labor shares.