REIT Dividend Policies and Dividend Announcement Effects During the 2008–2009 Liquidity Crisis

Real estate investment trust (REIT) dividend policies and dividend announcement effects during the 2008–2009 liquidity crisis are examined. Multinomial logit results indicate that REITs with higher market leverage or lower market‐to‐book ratios are more likely to cut dividends, suspend dividends or pay elective stock dividends. These results imply that mitigating going‐concern risk is an important motive for REITs adjusting dividend policies during the crisis and support dividend catering theory where investor demand for dividends impacts corporate dividend policies. Moreover, REITs that cut or suspend dividends experience positive cumulative abnormal returns during the post‐announcement period after controlling for the potential influence from simultaneous funds from operation announcements. The positive market response over the post‐announcement period supports the notion that dividend decisions convey information to investors and is also consistent with the broad catering theory of dividend policy.     

Increasingly Marginal Utilities: Diversification and Free Cash Flow in Newly Privatized UK Utilities

This article was the experience of the newly privatized UK utilities as a unique natural experiment to explore aspects of the life cycle/free cash-flow hypothesis of Dennis Mueller and Michael Jensen. It demonstrates that in their immediate post-privatization, regulated environment the UK utilities experienced severe attenuation of all the principal forms of corporate governance, while remaining substantial cash generators but with limited scope for core business growth. It shows that the firms responded with a rapid – and apparently unsuccessful – expansion of non-core activities. The article then uses a two-way random effects panel design and finds substantial and robust support for the maintained hypothesis that (lagged) cash-flow drove diversification. The results also generate clear implications for privatization policy. In particular, they suggest that the incentive benefits anticipated from substituting private for government ownership may become distorted if the managements of newly privatized enterprises are sheltered from the regular disciplines of corporate governance.     

Dividend Policies and Dividend Announcement Effects for Real Estate Investment Trusts

Previous research on real estate investment trusts (REITs) assumes that their dividend policies are determined solely by tax regulations. We observe, however, that REITs often pay out more dividends than are required by tax rules. This paper examines the dividend policies of REITs by drawing inferences from agency-cost theory and tests for the determinants of REIT dividend payout ratios. The study also considers whether the stock market responds differently to the dividend announcement effects of equity and mortgage REITs based on asymmetric information. Our results support agency-cost explanations for dividend policy and suggest a differential announcement effect.     

投资者法律保护 超额现金与现金股利政策

从宏观和微观角度分析了投资者法律保护、超额现金与现金股利政策的关系。得出了投资者法律保护与现金股利支付率负相关,在分组样本中,投资者法律保护并没有差异;现金比例与现金股利支付率负相关,并且在超额现金样本组与非超额现金样本组中有显著性差异。实证表明我国股利政策支持替代假说。     

股利政策 投资者保护与企业价值——基于股权分置改革背景

股利政策是现代公司治理的重要内容。通过研究我国上市公司股改前后股利政策与公司价值之间的关系,可以得出股利政策的变动有利于提高企业价值。同时也指出,投资者保护水平能够加强股改之后股利政策与企业价值之间的关系。     

REIT Dividend Determinants: Excess Dividends and Capital Markets

The determinants of excess dividend payments above mandatory requirements in real estate investment trusts (REITs) are evaluated. Payment of excess dividends is related to factors associated with reduced agency costs, strong operating performance, the implementation of a stock repurchase plan and an ability to access short-term bank debt. Recognizing that access to external capital is essential for long-term growth, REITs manage dividend policy to allow for capital acquisition in the form of both equity and debt. The acquisition and use of short-term bank debt provides REIT management flexibility in determining dividend policy.     

基于企业生命周期理论的现金股利分配实证研究

本文在回顾西方股利政策理论的基础上,基于生命周期理论对股利政策的影响因素进行实证分析。我们以留存收益资产比作为企业生命周期的代理变量,选取沪市528家A股上市公司作为样本,采用2000—2008年间的数据,运用Logit模型、Tobit模型分别考察留存收益资产比和一些控制变量对上市公司是否支付现金股利、股利支付率的影响。研究发现,我国上市公司是否支付现金股利呈现生命周期特征,而现金股利支付率则不具有生命周期特征;在选取的控制变量中,增长率变量与股利发放显著负相关,从增长率这一角度看,暗合生命周期特征,资产收益率和公司规模变量与股利发放显著正相关。根据研究结论,本文建议证监会分行业制定公司的现金股利分配政策。     

股权分置改革后上市公司股利政策研究

2006年我国股权分置改革基本完成，这种制度变革是否对上市公司2006年的股利政策产生了影响。通过对2006年上市公司股利政策进行统计分析，结果显示2006年上市公司的股利政策具有股利分配形式以现金股利为主、整体分红水平提高不多、异常派现行为减少等特征。在对这些特征进行分析的基础上，提出了应加强现金流量管理和大力发展机构投资者。     

Corporate governance in Taiwan: The nonmonotonic relationship between family ownership and dividend policy

This study considers an important aspect of corporate governance: the relationship between cash flow rights and dividend payout policy of listed family firms in Taiwan, an economy characterized by a predominance of family-controlled firms. Dividend payout levels are important because they are crucial to governing the firm and managing its investments. The empirical results show that at a low level of controlling families’ cash flow rights, the threat to lose control at any time makes controlling families claim more in dividends. This yields a positive relationship between dividend payout and the cash flow rights of controlling families at this level. Meanwhile, at a moderate level of controlling families’ cash flow rights, the entrenchment effect becomes more robust and creates a negative relationship with dividend payout. Finally, at the very highest level of controlling families’ cash flow rights, excessive firm-specific risk again helps to again create a positive relationship. This nonmonotonic relationship between controlling family cash flow rights and dividend payout also holds for financially mature firms that have a high earned to contributed capital mix.     

The Performance of Commercial Mortgages

This study examines the return characteristics of a large, well-diversified commercial mortgage portfolio. Mortgage-specific cash-flow histories are constructed for 2,480 loans originated over the period 1974 through 1990, and a contingent-claims approach to pricing risky debt is used to estimate inter-temporal market values. Quarterly holding-period returns are compared across selected mortgage groups and to alternate asset classes. Our findings suggest that both mortgage returns and volatility of return are comparable to those of other forms of fixed-income assets over the study period. Implied property price volatility is found to average 17%, a result significantly higher than reported in earlier studies. While mortgage returns are found to vary by property type and region of origin, cross correlation of returns is found to be high, illustrating the systematic effect of interest rates on the performance of commercial mortgages over the period 1974 through 1990. However, an increase in credit risk in the latter years of the study suggests that diversification may be a worthwhile objective for holders of these assets. We do not find evidence to suggest that abnormal returns were earned on commercial mortgage portfolios over the study period.     

我国上市公司股权结构对现金股利政策的影响——基于股权分置改革前后的实证研究

本文基于中国股权分置改革的特殊制度背景,以中国上市公司为样本,就股权结构对现金股利政策的影响进行了实证分析。实证结果发现,绝对控股结构的公司在股权分置改革前后一直存在现金股利的隧道效应;而在股权制衡结构的公司中,大股东之间的相互监督和制衡有效限制了控股股东对中小股东的利益侵占行为;股权分置改革前后,不同股权结构上市公司的股利支付水平和稳定性也存在差异。因此,上市公司股权结构的合理化调整应成为保护中小投资者利益的重要手段。     

On the Effects of Uncertainty on Investment Timing and Option Value

This article demonstrates that when the relationship between systematic risk and project value is taken into account, the sensitivity of investments with respect to volatility changes dramatically. By taking cash flows as a fundamental variable, the article shows that the value of an option to invest can be decreasing in volatility, contradicting the conventional wisdom. Second, the recent proposition, according to which the expected time to invest is U-shaped, does not generally hold; the expected time and the cash flow trigger are likely to be always increasing in volatility.     

Investment decisions in troubled times: A Bayesian approach applied to Brazilian firms

This study analyses the investment decision of 497 Brazilian firms during a period of unstable macroeconomic conditions. The role of financial constraints is considered in a Bayesian econometric model. We estimate three different models, and the results indicate the presence of financial restrictions, especially for capital-intensive firms. The recursive predictive density criterion indicates that the most preferred model is the one in which firm-specific effects are correlated with cash-flow. Financial restrictions are more important for capital-intensive firms, probably due to their lower profitability indexes, higher fixed costs and higher degree of property diversification.     

The Ex‐Day Price Behavior of REITs: Taxes or Ticks?

Taxes and microstructure constraints are often cited as possible explanations for why stock prices drop by less than the dividend on their ex‐dates. Using a sample of real estate investment trusts, which have no significant correlation between dividend size and yield, we find that close‐to‐open ex‐dividend price drops are related to dividend size as suggested by the microstructure models, but close‐to‐close price drops are related to dividend yield as predicted by the tax theory. These results imply that overnight price drops are primarily determined by microstructure, but that trading during the ex‐day causes prices to adjust to reflect individual tax preferences.     

Investor Rationality: Evidence from U.K. Property Capitalization Rates

Recent analyses have suggested the irrationality of Australian and U.S. office property investors in that they have failed to raise capitalization rates sufficiently at rental cyclical peaks to account for the obvious mean reversion in real rents and thus have significantly overvalued properties. In this article, we present a model of capitalization rates and explain U.K. office and retail cap rates in an error correction framework. We demonstrate that our proxies for expected real rental growth do, in fact, forecast future real growth and that cap rates reflect rational expectations of mean reversion in future real cash flows. Moreover, property cap rates are linked to the equity capitalization rate (dividend/price ratio) and expected real dividend growth in the expected manner.     

The Impact of Dividend Reinvestment Plans on Firm Payout Choices—Evidence from Real Estate Investment Trusts

This study investigates whether firm dividend payout choices are influenced by the presence of a Dividend Reinvestment Plan (DRIP). Given that DRIPs help retain capital, we show that dividend‐paying firms with a DRIP will tend to pay a high dividend and maintain a stable payout policy. Using a multinomial logistic model, we show that in comparison to REITs without DRIPs, REITs with DRIPs have a higher payout ratio and are less likely to: (1) pay regular dividends with extra dividends and share repurchases, (2) distribute extra dividends, repurchase shares, yet omit regular dividends and (3) omit all payouts. In addition, we find that REITs with a capital‐retaining DRIP invest more aggressively and such increased investment activities are undertaken without raising the reliance on external financing.     

Takeover Risk and Dividend Strategy: A Study of UK Firms

We investigate the relationship between a company’s dividend strategy and its risk of takeover. Our results from a large panel of UK quoted companies suggest that higher dividend payments are associated with a significantly lower conditional probability (hazard) of takeover. Moreover, firms which wish to avoid takeover would be better to distribute the marginal £1 of earnings in dividends rather than investing it in the company. We consider two explanations for these findings. We suggest that the presence of an active market for corporate control could encourage firms to raise dividends to maintain shareholder loyalty.     

市场化进程 控股股东与现金股利政策研究综述

首先梳理了国外有关现金股利政策的一些最新研究文献,并结合当前我国经济和社会发展的地区间的不平衡,探讨了市场化进程与控股股东对现金股利政策的影响,并提出了今后研究的一些方向。     

The sustainable growth model: A tool for evaluating the financial feasibility of market share strategies

Market share objectives constitute a key element of a firm's corporate strategy. Market share strategy decisions—to build, maintain, or harvest share—are generally based on a careful consideration of the long-term and short-term profitability and cash flow implications of such decisions. The product sales growth rate and capacity expansion implications of share building strategies, the sustainability of implied sales growth targets and its consistency with the established financial policies and objectives of the firm are the subject of this report. The sustainable growth model outlined provides a framework for evaluating the financial feasibility of sales growth objectives at the strategic business unit level and the firm level, from the standpoint of expected return on sales, investment requirements per dollar of sales, target capital structure and the dividend policy of the firm.     

基于CGE模型的碳税政策对碳排放及居民福利的影响分析

本文通过构建可计算一般均衡模型,分析了征收10元/吨、20元/吨、30元/吨和40元/吨碳税对宏观经济的影响,其次,利用经济产出效应和能源强度效应来衡量碳税的减排效果,最后,模拟保持居民福利水平不变的情况,分析碳税的“双重红利”。研究结论表明：碳税是一种可行的政策选择,能够明显降低二氧化碳排放;除政府收入和消费增加,对其他宏观经济变量如实际GDP、名义GDP和居民福利均产生负效应;居民的收入和消费降低,但农村居民和城镇居民受影响的程度存在差异;碳税的实施充分发挥了能源强度效应的抑制作用并减弱了经济产出效应的促进作用;在征收碳税的同时降低个人所得税率,保持居民福利不变,可以实现碳税的“双重红利效应”。