CHINA-JAMAICA''S VALUABLE PARTNER

Jamaica is China's largest trading partner in the English-speaking Caribbean and bilateral trade has developed rapidly,although last year bilateral trade has been greatly affected because of the economic crisis.However,with continuous development of the two economies,bilateral economic development and trade has great potential.     

供给因素、结构变化、汇率与我国的双边贸易

基于考虑供给因素、结构变化的出口决定模型,采用两方程方法和单方程方法研究了外国GDP、中国GDP、结构变化、汇率与我国17个双边贸易之间的关系。研究表明:供给因素、结构变化对我国双边贸易有重要影响,供给因素对我国与美、澳、马、巴、新、泰、加进口及出口的影响存在严重的不对称性,结构变化对我国与德、印、加进口及出口的影响存在严重的不对称性,汇率对中国对15个贸易伙伴国出口与进口的影响存在严重的不对称性。采用出口除进口表示贸易收支做法的单方程方法的研究存在严重错误。经济增长模式对双边贸易有重要影响,人民币升值对我国双边贸易不平衡有一定的矫正作用,对改善我国双边贸易不平衡的国别分布有较大的积极作用。     

Determinants of Trade Costs and Trade Growth Accounting between India and the European Union during 1995–2010

This study aimed to utilise the micro‐founded measure of trade cost derived by Novy to estimate the relative bilateral trade costs of India with its European Union partners. The advantage of using such a model is that the trade costs can be derived entirely using observable trade data. The results show that Indian tariff equivalent with its major EU trading partners has declined by 20 percentage points between 1995 and 2010, with Malta and Latvia experiencing the greatest decline. The study then decomposes the bilateral trade growth to ascertain whether it is an outcome of increased domestic production or reduction in bilateral and multilateral trade barriers. Novy's model indicates that the decline in relative bilateral trade costs explains the greatest percentage of this trade growth, which is partially offset by decline in multilateral resistance terms that has diverted trade away to other trading partners primarily in South and South‐East Asia and North America.     

中国和新加坡商品贸易实证研究

自中国和新加坡建交以来,伴随着两国经济增长,双边贸易有了较大的发展。中新双边贸易强度不断增强,但指数并不高,贸易合作前景广阔。相对而言,中国的比较优势指数不如新加坡,新加坡在双边贸易中略占优势。中新双边贸易主要以产业内贸易为主,这些产业内贸易主要集中在几个少数的产品;中新的产业内贸易并不是基于水平分工的产业内贸易,而是基于垂直分工的产业内贸易。     

中国与巴西双边贸易的竞争性与互补性研究

作为两大新兴经济体,中国和巴西双边贸易的发展对世界市场的发展具有不容忽视的影响。本文在描述中巴双边贸易发展现状的基础上,通过出口产品相似度、双边贸易结合度以及产业内贸易指数、显示性比较优势指数等指标,对中巴双边贸易的竞争性和互补性进行了分析。结果显示,中巴贸易结构差异明显,双边贸易结构具有较强的互补性。在进一步扩大贸易规模的同时,中巴双方可在农业领域、资源领域以及基础设施领域等双方的供需结合点提高投资与贸易合作。     

CAFTA的制度约束与中新双边自由贸易区建设研究

中国—东盟自由贸易区(CAFTA)建设中存在一定的制度约束。近期内东盟内部成员国与中国外贸具有趋同性。东盟成员新加坡的双边自由贸易区建设,对于中国在执行CAFTA的同时积极关注域外双边自由贸易区的合作路径提供了可能。借鉴新加坡的双边自由贸易区建设机制,加快与韩国、日本及印度等不同发展程度国家的贸易磋商与谈判,建立CAFTA域外双边自由贸易区将是中国外贸可持续发展的有效模式。     

“一带一路”倡议下中哈农产品贸易发展特征、阻碍及应对策略

“一带一路”倡议为中哈两国农产品贸易发展带来了新机遇,双方农产品贸易发展势头良好,贸易额稳步攀升,但也呈现贸易规模不大、贸易结构单一、贸易壁垒较多等现实特征,贸易障碍依然较多。对此,笔者从“一带一路”倡议出发,以中哈农产品贸易现状及特征为切入点,在剖析双边农产品贸易发展面临的阻碍因素基础上,提出进一步深化双方农产品贸易合作的应对策略。     

A Multilevel investigation into the effect of cultural distance on bilateral trade: The roles of product type and uncertainty avoidance

Previous research shows mixed findings about how cultural distance may affect bilateral trade. To reconcile the mixed findings, we examine how key moderators at both the country-pair level (product type) and the country level (uncertainty avoidance) affect the magnitude of the effect of cultural distance on bilateral trade. Using trade data on electronic products from 90 nations during 2008–2 014, we show that cultural distance in general has a negative impact on bilateral trade. However, the effect is more pronounced when the trade is on experience (versus search) products, or if the importing country is low (versus high) in uncertainty avoidance. Apart from its moderating effect, experience (versus search) product also has a negative main effect on bilateral trade, but its impact is stronger for countries low (versus high) in uncertainty avoidance.     

＂Most Difficult Year＂ Sino-Russian Bilateral Trade in 2009

Since the meeting between Rajiv Gandhi and Deng Xiaoping more than 20 years ago, China and India, have been seeking to reach a wider range of cooperative relationship. In 2008, the trade volume reached US$52 billion, making China becoming India＇s largest goods trade partner, while India became China＇s tenth largest trading partner. According to Chinese customs statistics, in November 2009, Sino-Indian bilateral trade volume reached US$3.972 billion, up 37.9% comparing the same period of last year. This is the first positive growth that the trade volume has declined continually since January in 2009.     

产品内分工视角下中美贸易失衡中的贸易利益研究

中美双边贸易中中方的巨额贸易顺差是否使中方获得了同样的贸易利益,一直是中美两国争论的焦点问题之一。本文在产品内分工框架内,构建了双边贸易利益分配的理论模型,使用面板协整对1997-2009年中美双边8个主要制造业部门的贸易利得进行实证分析。结果表明,美国依靠比较优势和垄断优势占据了产品价值链两端高附加值环节,而中国承担低附加值的中间环节;中美贸易失衡背后的利益流向并没有与贸易差额一致,中国在中美产品内贸易中获利微薄。因此,我国应该努力提升产业结构,提高自主创新能力,力求锁定在附加值高的环节,以赢得更多的国际贸易利益。     

政治距离、文化差异与中国的对外贸易

政治利益与决策如何影响经济成为近年来学者关注与争议的焦点。文章基于中国视角,选取96个国家1992~2015年度数据为样本,实证考察了双边政治距离、经贸往来与文化差异之间的互动关系,结论如下:首先,政治距离显著降低了中国与贸易伙伴国间双边贸易往来,双边文化的差异则加深了彼此的政治风险,显著提高了双边贸易对政治距离的敏感性(偏效应)。其次,上述关系在不同时期呈现出不同的特征,尤其是在危机后的经济复苏阶段,中国与伙伴国的贸易往来却独立于双边的政治距离。最后,当对所涉及的贸易产品进行细分研究时,发现主要是在食品和活动物、制成品、机械和运输设备以及杂项制品这四类产品的贸易中显著存在上述贸易损害效应。     

俄欧能源贸易中的利益博弈

能源贸易是俄欧贸易关系中最重要的方面，本文从博弈论的角度探讨了俄欧双方在能源贸易中的竞争与合作，其结论是通过双方的利益博弈，合作是双方在能源领域中的一种必然选择。     

Accounting for the Differences Between Gross and Value Added Trade Balances

One of the main stylised facts that has emerged from the recent literature on global value chains is that bilateral trade imbalances in gross terms can differ substantially from those measured in value added terms. However, the factors underlying the extent and sign of the differences between the two measures have so far not been investigated. Here, we propose a novel decomposition of bilateral gross trade balances that accounts for the differences between gross and value added concepts. The bilateral analysis contributes conceptually to the literature on double counting in trade by identifying the trade flow in which value added is actually recorded for the first time in international trade statistics. We apply our decomposition framework to the development of intra‐EU‐27 trade balances from 1995 to 2011 and show that a growing share of intra‐EU bilateral trade balances is due to demand in countries other than the two direct trading partners. The latter accounted for 25 per cent of the total variance of intra‐EU gross bilateral trade balances in 2011, which marks a considerable rise from 3 per cent in 1995.     

Trade booms, trade busts, and trade costs

What has driven trade booms and trade busts in the past and present? We employ a micro-founded measure of trade frictions consistent with leading trade theories to gauge the importance of bilateral trade costs in determining international trade flows. We construct a new balanced sample of bilateral trade flows for 130 country pairs across the Americas, Asia, Europe, and Oceania for the period from 1870 to 2000 and demonstrate an overriding role for declining trade costs in the pre-World War I trade boom. In contrast, for the post-World War II trade boom we identify changes in output as the dominant force. Finally, the entirety of the interwar trade bust is explained by increases in trade costs.     

中印贸易合作的潜力及实现路径研究——基于随机前沿引力模型

在分析中印双边贸易结合度、相似度、互补性的基础上,利用随机前沿引力模型测算中国对印度的进口和出口效率,以及中印双边的贸易潜力,提出了中印贸易合作的实现路径。研究发现:中印双边贸易额稳步增加,但印度对华出口增长乏力,中方贸易顺差逐年扩大;中印两国贸易关系紧密,贸易产品互补性较强,且在两国主要出口市场的竞争性较弱;中国对印度的出口效率小于进口效率,出口和进口贸易潜力最大值分别为794亿美元、177亿美元;互相削减关税增加了两国的总经济效应,且印度的收益大于中国;印度加入上合组织促进了其与中国的贸易增长。建议中国扩大对印度的投资,增加从印度进口,积极推动RCEP尽快达成协议。     

中美双边工业品增加值贸易隐含碳福利核算与分配问题研究

现代贸易方式不仅导致贸易利益在全球价值链上进行分配,还带来了贸易隐含污染排放在全球贸易网络中的分布。两国之间的贸易利益分配除了表现为贸易经济福利的分配,还表现为贸易隐含碳福利的分配。本文将贸易增加值分解法结合MRIO模型对2000—2014年中美双边工业品贸易增加值所隐含的碳福利分配及影响机制展开深入分析。研究结果表明:(1)在中美双边工业品增加值贸易隐含碳福利分配中,碳福利逆差在中国,碳福利顺差在美国;(2)中美工业品贸易碳福利级差经历了“先扩大,后收窄”的过程,美国次贷危机之后双边碳福利不平衡状况重新呈现扩大趋势;(3)中国碳排放强度下降、价值链地位提升以及对美进口规模扩大都有助于改善碳福利逆差的局面,但美国对中国不断扩大的中间品和最终品需求以及双边复杂的技术关联结构仍是中国碳福利逆差的主导因素;(4)全球价值链的深化可能将导致对出口国加征关税会通过降低进口消费侧排放的方式恶化加征国的贸易隐含碳福利。本文研究的时间范围同时覆盖中国加入WTO以及美国次贷危机两个重要节点,这对于重新审视中美经贸关系新格局下双边贸易隐含碳福利分配构建了一个新的分析视角,为中美未来贸易谈判以及全球碳排放责任认定提供了一个新的解读方向。     

美国的双边自由贸易协定与环境问题

从进入21世纪以来,美国积极投入到双边自由贸易协定的谈判之中,并且已取得了令人瞩目的成果。在这些协定中都设有专门的“环境”一章来协调签字国之间的环境问题。本文分析了美国将贸易政策的重心转向双边自由贸易协定的原因,以美澳自由贸易协定为例介绍了“环境”部分的内容,并分析了美国在双边自由贸易协定中规定环境条款的原因,以及对我国的启示。     

中国与印度农产品贸易的动态与前景分析

近几年来,中国与印度的农产品双边贸易发展较快,不断增长的趋势明显,但双边贸易的不稳定性与不平衡性亦显得尤为突出。文章从实证分析的角度出发,利用出口集中度指数、产业内贸易指数、显性比较优势指数、贸易互补性指数等方法分析中印农产品双边贸易的现状、产品结构、发展趋势等问题。研究发现:中印两国在农产品贸易方面具有出口集中度高、以产业间贸易为主、优势农产品差异明显、双边贸易互补性强、发展潜力巨大等特征。     

浅谈新时期中俄经贸发展

随着经济全球化的不断深入，中俄双边贸易规模不断扩大，现已连续保持了9年的快速增长势头，但远未达到中俄贸易合作应有潜力，仍存在提升的空间。本文通过对中俄经贸发展的规模与结构分析，阐述了提升中俄经贸关系所存在的现实基础和主要问题，并有针对性地提出解决思路。     

中印农产品贸易互补性及贸易潜力分析

通过对中国和印度农产品贸易比较优势、结构特点的分析,研究了两国农产品贸易产业间和产业内的互补性;在此基础上,从产业间和产业内互补的不同角度,分析了双方具有潜在互补性和较大贸易容量及紧密贸易联系的农产品,以揭示两国之间的农产品贸易潜力。研究表明,中印农产品的贸易互补性在现实贸易中并没有得到充分体现,两国农产品贸易具有进一步开发的潜力。