Consistent Estimation of a Censored Demand System and Welfare Analysis: The 2012 VAT Reform in Spain

This paper analyses the effects that the 2012 VAT reform in Spain had on households’ welfare, focusing on a major expenditure group: food and non‐alcoholic beverages. Households’ demands are modeled as a two‐stage Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System, which is then estimated by means of a consistent two‐step estimator introduced in Tauchmann ( 2010 ) and not previously used in studies of this type. This procedure allows consistent imposition of the traditional parameter restrictions that utility maximisation requires in the context of a censored model. Our results show that the welfare loss and the increment in the tax bill increase with income. We also show that expenditure on food and non‐alcoholic beverages grows less than proportionately with income. Consequently, households with lower income experience a greater welfare loss relative to their income levels. In short, the 2012 VAT reform in Spain, focusing on this expenditure group, can be considered as regressive.     

我国农村公共支出政策效果的定量分析

本文概要介绍了国内有关农村公共支出模型的研究,利用SPSS软件进行了主成分分析,并根据不同的取值标准设置了虚拟变量,完成了“布朗一杰克逊”公共支出模型的扩展式,从而提出了一个农村公共品供给理论的新的分析框架。利用这一扩展模型,本文对我国东部、中部、西部地区和不同年份截面资料作了实证研究。     

逐步回归分析在经济林产品需求预测中的应用

详细分析了逐步回归模型的基本原理,以五种水果为例,利用1991～2007年数据,论述逐步回归在经济林产品需求预测的应用过程,最后依据所建模型对2008～2012年各种水果需求进行预测及分析。     

A Quantile Regression Analysis of the Effect of Farmers’ Attitudes and Perceptions on Market Participation

The objective of this study is to investigate the subjective determinants of farmers’ participation in output markets in five EU New Member States (NMS) characterised by large semi‐subsistence sectors. It employs quantile regression to model market participation reflecting the heterogeneity amongst farmers. The study also uses the Bayesian adaptive lasso to simultaneously select important covariates and estimate the corresponding quantile regression models. The empirical results show that only two variables affect all quantiles, while their effect varies across quantiles. Some of the remaining variables affect the share of output sold at the lower quantiles (i.e. for subsistence‐ and semi‐subsistence‐oriented farmers) only, whereas other variables are only significant at the upper quantiles (i.e. for more commercially oriented farms). Advisory services, and particularly agricultural business advice, and information and advice on markets and prices can facilitate the market participation of subsistence‐oriented farms.     

Asymmetric Margins in Prices and Retail Supply Chain Integration: The Spanish Vegetable Case

Several studies have observed asymmetric behavior between sale prices in the supermarket and the price paid to the farmer. This article presents the consequences derived from a simplified framework considering a scenario in which the retailer wishes to maintain balanced profits due to external pressures or because the retailers' strategy to differentiate themselves from the competition requires greater integration in the supply chain. It is shown that the price-fixing decision of the distributor may depend on the risk, measured by the relationship between demand elasticity and variable costs, as a result of uncertainty in consumer response to price variations. This risk arises from the existence of supply that is highly changeable in the short term and demand that is unpredictable.     

The Impact of Generic Advertising on U.S. Household Cheese Purchases: A Censored Autocorrelated Regression Approach

The impacts of generic cheese advertising on U.S. household cheese purchases are examined via the use of a unique household panel. Modest gains in overall at-home cheese purchases from generic cheese advertising appear to be largely the result of strong gains in purchases of natural cheese rather than processed cheese. Results indicate that relatively larger gains in household cheese purchases from generic advertising may be realized by targeting infrequent purchasers to increase purchase frequencies, rather than by targeting households in general to increase their conditional purchase levels.     

Derived Demand and Relationships between Prices at Different Levels in the Value Chain: A Note

In this paper we note that when there is only one variable factor in the intermediaries' production technology, prices at different levels in the value chain will move proportionally to each other over time. This is also the only general condition under which the elasticity of price transmission is equal to one, so that retail price signals are perfectly transmitted to primary product producers and vice versa. This allows a test of whether derived demand elasticities contain information about consumer elasticities using only prices. An empirical illustration is provided using data from the Norwegian cod sector.     

Characterizing the Distribution of Macronutrient Intake among U.S. Adults: A Quantile Regression Approach

Since the risk of dietary inadequacy or excess is greater at the tails of the nutrient intake distributions than at the mean, marginal effects of explanatory variables estimated at the conditional mean using ordinary least squares may be of limited value in characterizing these distributions. Quantile regression is effective in this situation since it can estimate conditional functions at any part of the distribution. Quantile regression results suggest that age, education, and income have a larger influence at intake levels where the risk of excess is greater compared with intake levels where the risk of excess is lower.     

浙江省城乡居民消费需求:基于扩展线性支出系统模型分析

本文运用扩展线性支出系统(ELES)模型和计量经济学的方法,分别利用浙江省城乡居民消费支出的时间序列数据和截面数据,对城乡居民的消费需求进行实证分析,以揭示浙江省城乡居民消费行为的特征、差异和变动规律。     

Quasi- and Simulated-Likelihood Approaches to Censored Demand Systems: Food Consumption by Food Stamp Recipients in the United States

A quasi-maximum-likelihood estimator is proposed and applied to a censored Translog demand system for foods, using a sample of food stamp recipients in the United States. The procedure produces remarkably close parameter and elasticity estimates to those of the simulated-maximum-likelihood procedure. A two-step procedure is also considered but it produces different elasticities. Demands are found to be price elastic for pork and fish but price inelastic for all other food products. Gross complementarity and net substitutability are obvious but these cross-price effects are much less pronounced than own-price and total food expenditure effects.     

On Jumps and ARCH Effects in Natural Resource Prices: An Application to Pacific Northwest Stumpage Prices

Continuous-time models of natural resource prices usually preclude the possibility of large changes (jumps) resulting from unexpected events. To test for the presence of jumps and/or ARCH effects, we combine bounds and the Monte Carlo test technique to obtain finite-sample, level-exact p -values. We apply this methodology to stumpage prices from the Pacific Northwest and find evidence of jumps and ARCH effects. To assess the impact of neglecting jumps on the decision to harvest old-growth timber, we develop an autonomous, infinite-horizon stopping model for which we provide a new method of resolution. Our numerical results show the importance of modeling jumps explicitly.     

我国食用植物油消费增长及其影响因素分析

本文分析了我国食用植物油消费的增长变动特征及其动因,定量测度了消费者针对收入和价格变动的反应,对食用植物油的需求弹性进行了估计,结果表明,我国植物油需求的收入弹性和价格弹性均处于较低水平且呈减少趋势,城乡居民之间、不同地区之间的需求弹性存在较大差异。     

Food Demand in Mexico: An Application of the Amemiya-Tobin Approach to the Estimation of a Censored Food System

The modeling of micro-level food demand patterns requires not only allowing for household heterogeneity, but also addressing the problem of censoring. In this article, we present a variation of the Amemiya-Tobin framework for estimating a censored demand system that allows for household heterogeneity. The unique aspect of our approach is the use of a procedure that ensures the adding up of both latent and observed expenditure shares and also imposes expenditure share nonnegativity. This system is applied to an analysis of food demand based on a random sample of urban Mexican households.     

杭州市住宅价格空间分异:基于特征价格的两维度分析

研究目的:从特征价格的视角,构建城市住宅价格空间分异的两维度分析框架,并对杭州市住宅市场进行实证研究。研究方法:文献资料法和计量分析法。研究结果:住宅特征对住宅价格影响程度的差异性以及住宅特征空间分布的不均匀性,导致了住宅价格的空间分异。研究结论:基于特征价格模型的分析框架是有效且合理的。     

An Econometric Analysis of Total (Domestic) and Import Demand for Beef in Hong Kong

This paper presents an applied econometric analysis of total (domestic and import) demand for beef in Hong Kong for the period 1970 to 1988. The estimates are in logarithmic form and provide elasticity estimates for beef demand (domestic and import) in Hong Kong. Variables in the estimated domestic demand models (per capita and aggregate) include own price, prices of a substitute (pork) and a complement (rice) and income. Variables in the estimated import demand model include demand side variables (price of beef, price of pork, price of rice and income) and the price of imported live cattle as a supply shifting variable. The elasticities were inelastic for the domestic demand models while most of those for the import demand model were elastic.     

Farm Input, Farm Output and Retail Food Prices: A Cointegration Analysis

This paper investigates the adjustment mechanism between farm input prices, farm output prices and food retail prices in Canada. Johansen's maximum likelihood approach is used in addition to the Engle-Granger approach to test for cointegration. Contrary to the common assumption that farm output prices are more flexible than farm input prices, it is found that farm output prices, though cointegrated, are weakly exogenous in the sense that they do not respond in a systematic manner to disequilibrium in farm input prices and retail food prices. Evidence is found to support “cost push” and “demand pull” theories but, since food retail prices carry a heavier weight in the cointegration relations, it can be concluded that shocks manifesting themselves (first) at the retail level do not persist as long. Cet ouvrage se concentre sur le mécanisme d'ajustement entre les prix des intrants à la ferme, les prix payés aux producteurs agricoles et les prix de l'alimentation au détail au Canada. Les techniques développées par Johansen et par Engle et Granger sont utilisées pour vérifier des hypothèses reliées à la cointegration. Contrairement à la présomption que les prix payés aux agriculteurs sont plus flexibles que les prix de leurs intrants, on a découvert que les prix payés aux agriculteurs, bien que cointégrés, sont exogènes au moindre degré dans le sens qu'ils ne s'ajustent pas en fonction du déséquilibre dans les prix des intrants et les prix de l'alimentation au detail. La théorie voulant que les prix montent à cause des hausses dans les prix des intrants est vérifiée de même que la théorie alternative voulant que les ajustements des prix se fassent du détail aux intrants. Fluctuations occasionées par des changements dans les prix de l'alimentation au détail sont dissipées plus rapidement que les ajustements causés par des variations dans les prix des intrants.     

Agricultural Payments and Land Concentration: A Semiparametric Spatial Regression Analysis

Over the last twenty years, both crop production and agricultural payments have shifted toward larger operations. This study examines whether payments from federal farm programs contributed to increased concentration of cropland and farmland. Using zip code–level data constructed from the microfiles of the 1987–2002 agriculture censuses we examine the association between government payments per acre and subsequent growth in land concentration. A semiparametric generalized additive model (GAM) controls for location and historical concentration, sales per acre, and ratio of cropland area to zip code area. Findings indicate, both with and without nonparametric controls, government payments are strongly associated with subsequent concentration growth.     

Threshold Effects in Price Transmission: The Case of Brazilian Wheat, Maize, and Soya Prices

Recent studies into price transmission have recognized the important role played by transport and transaction costs. Threshold models are one approach to accommodate such costs. We develop a generalized Threshold Error Correction Model to test for the presence and form of threshold behavior in price transmission that is symmetric around equilibrium. We use monthly wheat, maize, and soya prices from the United States, Argentina, and Brazil to demonstrate this model. Classical estimation of these generalized models can present challenges but Bayesian techniques avoid many of these problems. Evidence for thresholds is found in three of the five commodity price pairs investigated.     

房地产价格分布的空间自相关分析——以东莞市为例

研究目的分析东莞市房价分布的空间自相关特征及空间分布格局.研究方法依据东莞市2006年普通住宅交易均价数据,运用空间自相关理论和方法进行分析.选用全局和局域Momn's Ⅰ指数、Moran散点图、LISA集聚图等工具进行测度和实证分析.研究结果东莞市房价总体空间差异较小,房价全局空间自相关特征显著、总体上呈现空间集聚格局;东莞大部分普通住宅价格呈现局部空间集聚格局,也有少量存在空间异质性而呈现局部离散格局.