Consumption over the life cycle: The role of annuities

We explore the quantitative implications of uncertainty about the length of life and a lack of annuity markets for life cycle consumption in a general equilibrium overlapping generations model in which markets are otherwise complete. Empirical studies find that consumption displays a hump shape over the life cycle. Our model exhibits life cycle consumption that is consistent with this pattern. Our calibrated model, which includes an unfunded social security system, displays a hump shape but the peak occurs later in the life cycle than in the data. Adding a bequest motive causes this decline to begin at a younger age.     

R&D dynamics in the product life cycle

This paper presents a model of a firm's R&D behavior over an entire product life cycle. Beginning with the search stage, modelled as a patent race, firms raise their R&D expenditures until one firm succeeds with a technological breakthrough in creating a new product, market. The following R&D behavior of the successful entrepreneur, devoted to incremental product and process innovations, varies in a characteristic way over the new product's life cycle. Under reasonable conditions, R&D activities rise in the early stages but decline when the market matures. Overall, supply and demand factors combine to determine the R&D time-path.Paper presented at the Sixth Annual Congress of the European Economic Association, Cambridge, U.K., August 31-September 2, 1991. I would like to thank three anonymous referees for helpful comments and suggestions. Financial support of the DFG in Bonn is gratefully acknowledged.     

The technology adoption life cycle attractor: Understanding the dynamics of high-tech markets

Unlike more stable industries, high-tech firms must constantly be in a strategy development phase. These companies are in desperate need of assistance in strategy formulation. This paper introduces a quantitative (rather than subjective) approach to help high-tech firms to understand their position in the technology adoption life cycle using some of the principles and tools of Chaos and Complexity theories. This approach is demonstrated by using data sets of three case studies in the hard drive, microprocessor, and server high-tech industries.     

基于产业寿命周期的农业优势产业选择研究

运用产业寿命周期理论，封区域农业产业成长周期的阶段性特徵进行了分析，探讨农业产业的发展规律，在农业产业寿命周期的一定阶段上，遴选出农村区域经济发展中的农业优势产业。通过政策扶持，发挥它们的带动效应，实现农业产业的跨越式发尽。     

The changing role of house price dynamics over the business cycle

In this paper, we attempt to analyse the relationship between house price dynamics and the business cycle. Employing a time-varying transition probability Markov switching framework, we provide empirical evidence that house price growth may prove a useful leading indicator for turning point detection. Focusing on three countries, the US, UK and Spain, we furthermore provide evidence that although potentially informative from an overall perspective in business cycle modelling, the significance of signals contained in house prices may not be symmetric across the identified high growth and low growth states. In addition, we suggest a possible range of values for house price deflation which may trigger a recession the following period.     

Product and process innovations in the life cycle of an industry

Filson [Rev. Econ. Dyn. 4 (2001)] uses industry-level data on firm numbers, price, quantity and quality along with an equilibrium model of industry evolution to estimate the nature and effects of quality and cost improvements in the personal computer industry and four other new industries. This paper studies the personal computer industry in more detail and shows that the model explains some peculiar patterns that cannot be explained by previous life-cycle models. The model’s estimates are evaluated using historical studies of the evolution of the personal computer industry and patterns that require further model development are described.     

Perceived trustworthiness and inter-firm governance: empirical evidence from the UK printing industry

The paper describes six representative theoretical positionsregarding the impact of trustworthiness on the organisationof inter-firm relations. The positions are then assessed onthe basis of a survey of 184 buyer–supplier relationshipsin the UK printing industry. The widely accepted transactioncost argument for trust as a parameter reducing hierarchy isdismissed. Instead, the so-called triadic forces argument basedon Bradach, J. L. and Eccles, R. G. (1989. Price, authorityand trust: from ideal types to plural forms, Annual Review ofSociology, vol. 15, 96–118) receives the strongest support.Market, hierarchy and trust represent alternative mechanismsthat can be combined in a variety of ways. This pluralisticmodel is enriched further by the acknowledgement of variableroles for contracts and a sceptic stance regarding rationalityin practice.     

Conflict or collaboration: the changing nature of inter-firm relationships in the UK Oil and Gas industry

Changes in contracting customs in the UK offshore oil and gas industry have led to changed relationships between companies, including the small, technology-based, oil-related companies which have been a source of much innovation. Issues raised by the research reported here include the impact of these changes on the industrial network and supply relationships of the industry. Continuing innovation is regarded by all industry members as being of gret importance for reducing costs and undertainsties in the North Sea industry. The changes within the industry have broken many of the linkages between firmsd which nediated this innovation in the past. This paper presents the initial findings of a project to analyze the new relationships which are developing, and their impact on innovation. Early conclusions include, in accordance with predictions from theory, that personal relationships assume relatively great importance when industry norms are poorly established, and that multiple relationships between firms under these circumstances are characterized by little trust, imcomplete intergration of network knowledge and conflicts of interest.     

Production and financial linkages in inter-firm networks: structural variety, risk-sharing and resilience

The paper analyzes how (production and financial) inter-firm networks can affect firms’ default probabilities and observed default rates. A simple theoretical model of shock transfer is built to investigate some stylized facts on how firm-idiosyncratic shocks are allocated in the network, and how this allocation changes firm default probabilities. The model shows that the network works as a perfect “risk-pooling” mechanism, when it is both strongly connected and symmetric. But the “risk-sharing” does not necessarily reduce default rates, unless the shock firms face is lower on average than their financial capacity. Conceived as cases of symmetric inter-firm networks, industrial districts might have a comparative disadvantage in front of heavy crises.     

Co-evolutionary dynamics in strategic alliances: The influence of the industry lifecycle

This article examines the application of co-evolutionary theory to the way in which firms form, perform, compete and change within alliance relationships over the period of the industry life cycle. This extends the work of Volberda and Lewin who extensively critiqued the use of single-theme explanations for explaining the adaption and selection of firms. Delineating the aspects of change (adaptation) and selection, and using case material from different stages of the Industry life cycle, we propose that co-evolution is a better explanator of strategic alliance and industry dynamics at early and late stages of the cycle, whilst evolution and survival of the fittest is more useful in the middle stages.     

Cyclical industrial dynamics: The case of the global semiconductor industry

In this paper, we focus on firms' cyclical behavior in the global semiconductor industry. We demonstrate that these cyclical dynamics at the industry level differ from both the business cycles at the macro-economic level and the lengthy industrial technology life cycle. We discuss a range of possible causes of those cyclical industrial dynamics, including the general business cycles as well as industry-specific factors. Our study reports three stylized facts in relation to the cyclical industrial dynamics in the global semiconductor industry: first, the industry is more concentrated during the industry cycle downturns; second, the capital investment of the industry as a whole follows a ‘pro-cyclical’ pattern; and third, firms that pursued a ‘counter-cyclical’ capital investment strategy during the industry cycle downturn have reaped rewards during the subsequent cycle period. These facts suggest that cyclical industrial dynamics, especially the industry cycle downturns, play an important role in firm rivalry, strategic positioning and industrial growth.     

Determinants of inter-firm technology licensing in the EU

This article investigates the determinants of technology licensing, focusing on how country-specific characteristics affect technology holders’ incentives to sell their proprietary technologies through licensing alliances. An empirical examination of licensing is done using a unique panel data set of licensing transactions involving companies in the EU. The strength of Intellectual Property Rights (IPR) protection, the degree of economic freedom, the level of country risk, and the number of patent granted in the country are found to be important determinants of inter-firm technology licensing. In addition, firms with prior independent experience as a licensor and public companies tend to license technology more.     

The age-dependent value of time: a life cycle analysis

A life cycle framework is developed to examine how the value of time (VOT) changes as one ages. We consider two risk-sharing schemes, the Tonti scheme under which wealth is actuarially insured, and the Robinson Crusoe scheme under which insurance institution is entirely absent. For the first time in the literature, we characterize the condition, in terms of key parameters for valuating VOT, under which VOT may increase, decline, or even display more complicated profiles, as one ages. Our analysis reveals the crucial role played by the relative magnitude of the market interest rate to other parameters (including the parameter of time preference, the age-specific mortality and the wage growth rate) in determining the age profile of VOT, and the difference in VOT that is caused by the insurance scheme.      

The supply of female part-time labour over the life cycle

The debate that expenditure on new or existing roads induces more traffic has intensified during the 1990s in most developed countries. In this paper the controversy is readdressed from a UK perspective, using the method of Granger noncausality. Results indicate that aggregate expenditure on new and existing roads does not induce additional traffic in the Granger sense. Conversely, the results found that traffic Granger causes road expenditure. The importance of these results, along with issues concerning the selection and specification of dynamic models, are discussed.     

The within-distribution business cycle dynamics of German firms

In this article, we analyse stylized facts for Germany's business cycle at the firm level. Based on longitudinal firm-level data from the Bundesbank's balance sheet statistics covering, on average, 55 000 firms per year from 1971 to 1998, we estimate transition probabilities of a firm in a certain real sales growth regime switching to another regime in the next period, e.g. whether a firm that has witnessed a high growth rate is likely to stay in a regime of high growth or is bound to switch to a regime of low growth in the subsequent period. We find that these probabilities depend on the business cycle position.     

The life cycle of worker-owned firms in market economies: A theoretical analysis

The population of worker-owned firms is likely to grow countercyclically: in contrast with capitalist firms, many worker-owned firms are born during recessions, frequently out of capitalist firms, and are transformed into capitalist firms during economic booms. There exists an offsetting tendency as worker-owned firms are formed during periods of sustained increase in the standard of living and are dissolved during economic decline. These are some of the conclusions of a theoretical analysis of the obstacles to the formation and relative efficiency attributes of worker-owned and capitalist firms carried out in a dynamic framework emphasizing the influence of changes in the environment on organizational life cycles.     

One-way flow networks: the role of heterogeneity

I study a one-way flow connections model in which players are heterogeneous with respect to values and the costs of establishing a link. I show that values and costs heterogeneity are equally important in determining the level of connectedness and the architecture of equilibrium networks. I also show that when asymmetries are independent of the potential partner there are distributions of costs and values for which centrality is a distincitive feature of equilibrium networks. This sharply contrasts with the homogeneous case.I thank an anonymous referee for useful comments. The paper has benefited from discussion with Gabriella Conti, Jose Luis Moraga-Gonzalez, Fernando Vega-Redondo and Sanjeev Goyal.