经济虚拟化过程中货币供给、经济增长与通货膨胀关系的发展演变——基于美国和中国数据的对比分析

随着虚拟经济的快速发展,经济虚拟化程度已成为影响货币供给、经济增长与通货膨胀之间关系不容忽视的因素。本文以美国从工业化时期到经济虚拟化时期的纵向演变过程为研究主线,并结合中美横向对比,在充分认识经济虚拟化进程所带来的经济运行变异的基础上,运用VAR模型的脉冲响应函数比较分析了三者之间内在关系的演变。研究结果表明经济虚拟化很好地解释了经济发展过程中货币供应与经济增长、通货膨胀之间所出现的背离现象,虚拟经济与实体经济的互动变得更加密切。另外,与美国相比,中国仍然处于由工业化时期向经济虚拟化时期的转变过程中。     

世界经济结构性变化与经常帐户失衡

本文认为,亚洲依赖美国市场来弥补需求,美国依赖亚洲的廉价出口和官方储备来抑制通胀和实现低成本融资,二者形成共生模式,经常帐户失衡是其枢纽。模式形成的根本原因在于世界经济结构性变化,即经济全球化和金融膨胀。经济全球化造成的竞争加剧和廉价出口抑制了商品通胀,为发达国家尤其是美国的货币扩张政策提供了空间,后者转而推动了金融膨胀。基于金融膨胀的负债消费扩大了美国的需求和进口,因此美国与亚洲为主的其他国家之间形成经常帐户失衡。但失衡局面不断腐蚀美元信用,使得模式不可持续,因此利益各方将会追求渐进式调整。     

人民币汇率升值与中美贸易失衡问题探讨

中美贸易失衡问题经常是中美双边贸易争端的核心,也被认为是中国对美贸易不公平的实证依据,人民币升值的舆论压力正是由此而起。本文通过对人民币汇率变动和中美贸易差额建立VAR模型,重点考察了人民币汇率变动和中美贸易差额之间的Granger因果关系,认为人民币汇率变动与中美贸易差额之间不存在因果关系。中美贸易失衡问题的根本原因在于美国的低储蓄率和相关贸易产品劳动生产率增长率相对低下造成的。单纯的人民币升值不会解决中美贸易失衡问题。     

中国经济增长、汇率变动与对外贸易关系的实证研究

本文利用时间序列分析方法,考察了1978-2004年中国经济增长、汇率变动与对外贸易的关系。实证结果表明,经济增长是对外贸易的核心影响因素;无论是名义汇率还是实际汇率,都不是对外贸易的重要影响因素。事实上,中国的贸易顺差来源于中国得天独厚的成本优势以及美国对中国不当的贸易政策。因而,要解决中美之间贸易失衡问题,美国必须调整国内的经济政策和对中国的贸易政策。     

人民币汇率波动与中美贸易失衡的关系研究

本文通过对人民币汇率变动和中美贸易差额建立VAR模型,重点考察了人民币汇率变动和中美贸易差额之间的Granger因果关系,认为人民汇率变动与中美贸易差额之间不存在因果关系。中美贸易失衡问题的根本原因在于美国的低储蓄率和相关贸易产品劳动生产率增长率相对低下造成的。单纯的人民币升值不会解决中美贸易失衡问题。     

中美贸易失衡的原因、影响及对策研究

随着中美两国经贸关系的不断发展,中美贸易额的不断增长,两国贸易形成了大量的差额.中美贸易的不平衡给两国经济带来了不可忽视的影响,并日益引起两国的高度重视.金融危机以来,美国就双边贸易平衡问题大做文章,意图让中国承担全球经济失衡的代价,并以此不断向中国施压.本文分析了中美贸易失衡产生的原因,指出美国对于失衡原因及汇率原因的不足之处,并分析了国际分工、贸易转移、外商直接投资、储蓄率差异和美国出口管制等实际因素.此外,本文分析了中美贸易失衡对我国的影响,并提出了相应的对策建议.     

全球经济失衡的原因、可持续性与解决途径——基于国际储备供求关系视角的研究

全球经济失衡的根本原因在于美国在国际储备供给中的垄断地位和发展中国家、新兴市场国家对国际储备的大量需求.解决全球经济失衡的根本出路在于通过各种途径减少世界各国对美元储备资产的需求.这与美国维持和强化美元霸权地位相矛盾.因此,全球经济失衡问题的解决将是一个漫长、充满矛盾和摩擦的过程.     

全球经济失衡与增长并存

全球经济失衡主要表现在两个方面:一是美国经常账户的巨额逆差——2000年为4160亿美元,2005年达到8065亿美元;二是亚洲经济体经常账户大量顺差,尤其是对美贸易顺差,2000年的经常账户顺差为2057亿美元,2005年达到3557亿美元。失衡的主要原因美国经济主要靠消费拉动,近年来这一倾     

人民币汇率与世界经济平衡分析

金融危机后,世界经济再平衡成为世界各国关注的问题,近来美国把中美贸易失衡归咎于中国汇率低估,使得人民币升值则成为世界经济的焦点问题。本文分析认为单纯依靠人民币汇率升值并不能改善美中贸易逆差,达到世界经济再平衡的目标,反而会给世界经济的复苏进程造成负面影响,并且不利于低收入国家的经济发展。全球经济再平衡需要各国调整产业、储蓄、消费等经济结构。     

国际经济背景下的中国汇率政策取向

中美贸易失衡的根本原因是美国的高消费和亚洲地区的高储蓄,同时也是全球经济一体化后生产分工模式变化的必然结果,并不完全取决于汇率水平。因此,解决中美贸易差额问题不能只盯住中国的汇率水平。中美应在加强磋商的基础上,分别出台措施缓解美元贬值(人民币升值)压力。对于中国而言,主要做好七件事,包括加快汇率形成机制的改革、加强对跨境资本流动的监测和管理、加大“走出去”战略的实施、积极发展本土资本市场、运用货币对冲操作手段、提高亚洲区内货币的结算功能和落实内需主导战略等。     

美英两国的政府绩效考评

绩效考评实践美国法律依据。美国政府绩效考评的法律依据是1993年美国第103届国会颁布的《政府绩效与结果法案》,该法案要求每个联邦机构必须报告为期5年的战略规划和每年的绩效情况。自20世纪90年代,美国国会相继通过一揽子设计联邦政府绩效管理的法案,主要涉及联邦政府三个关键领域:财务管理、信息技术与财政控制。在财务管理方面的立法,主要有《首席财务官法案》、《政府管理改革法案》     

Foreign holdings of U.S. Treasuries and U.S. Treasury yields

Foreign official holdings of U.S. Treasuries increased from $400 billion in January 1994 to about $3 trillion in June 2010. Most of this growth is accounted for by a handful of emerging market economies that have been running large current account surpluses. These countries are channeling their savings through the official sector, which is then acquiring foreign exchange reserves. Any shift in policy to reduce their current account surpluses or dampen the rate of reserves accumulation would likely slow the pace of foreign official purchases of U.S. Treasuries. Would such a slowing of foreign official purchases of Treasury notes and bonds affect long-term Treasury yields? Most likely yes, and the effects appear to be large. By our estimates, if foreign official inflows into U.S. Treasuries were to decrease in a given month by $100 billion, 5-year Treasury rates would rise by about 40–60 basis points in the short run. But once we allow foreign private investors to react to the yield change induced by the shock to foreign official inflows, the long-run effect is about 20 basis points.     

The Amount and Timing of Goodwill Write-Offs and Revaluations: Evidence from U.S. and U.K. Firms

This paper investigates criticisms that U.S. GAAP had given firms too much discretion in determining the amount and timing of goodwill write-offs. Using 1,576 U.S. and 563 U.K. acquisitions, we find little evidence that U.S. firms managed the amount of goodwill write-off or that U.K. firms managed the amount of revaluations (write-ups of intangible assets). However, our results are consistent with U.S. firms delaying goodwill write-offs and U.K. firms timing revaluations strategically to avoid shareholder approval linked to certain financial ratios.     

美国经济的三大风险及其对中美经济的影响

当前,美国经济正面临三大风险的威胁,这三大风险分别是巨额的"双赤字"及持续增长的债务、能源价格的大幅波动以及美国当前愈演愈烈的次级债务危机.这些风险将导致美国经济的下滑及美元的贬值,同时也会导致中国外贸出口增速减慢,以及给中国经济带来过多流动性的负面影响.     

VEBAs--ordinary and necessary expenses--deductions and constructive dividends. Neonatology Associates, P.A. v. Commissioner of Internal Revenue

Contributions made by professional medical corporations into voluntary employee benefit program plans (VEBAs), which were well in excess of the cost of the term life insurance provided to the participants, were not ordinary and necessary business expenses, and the distributions of surplus cash to owner physicians upon conversion to individual policies constituted constructive dividends taxable to the individual taxpayers.     

Contracts valuation assessment noise and cross-border listing of equities on U.S. and U.K. stock markets

This study develops and tests the hypothesis that firms in the home country have capital market incentives to cross-border list on foreign stock exchanges that have similar financial reporting with local generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP). Non-U.S. firms' contracts and the underlying GAAP are based on the home-country culture and institutional climates. This connection with culture and institution makes the local GAAP's assessment of the contracts less spurious relative to foreign GAAP. Ball et al. [J. Account. Econ. 29 (2000) 1] note that contracting with stakeholders in the home markets is based on local GAAP's numbers, while cross-border listing provides settings in which the value relevance of local GAAP-based contracts is assessed based on foreign GAAP. Therefore, foreign investors' assessment of the contracts using foreign stock exchange GAAP or mindset of foreign GAAP is likely to result in an assessment noise, which is value irrelevant. The level of assessment noise depends on the differences between foreign and local GAAP. Because of the valuation implications of the assessment noise, we expect cross-border listing to diminish as the likelihood of assessment noise increases.As predicted, we find that assessment noise undermines cross-border listing on U.S. stock exchanges. Because U.S. and local GAAPs are based on different cultural and institutional environments, assessment noise arises if U.S. investors use the mindset of U.S. GAAP financial reports to assess local GAAP-based contracts of cross-border firms. The results are robust in the London Stock Exchange in which assessment noise is induced by interpreting local GAAP contracts as if they were based on U.K. GAAP. As expected, the influences of assessment noise on cross-border listings are more robust in the United States than in the United Kingdom. Our results suggest that harmonization of financial reporting is critical in attenuating the influences of assessment noise on global capital market developments.     

Health and the welfare of U.S. business

Business leaders continue to blame the skyrocketing cost of health care for jeopardizing the global competitiveness of U.S. industries, and they continue to turn to Washington for the solution. Yet after a study of 16 countries, Wharton researchers David Brailer and R. Lawrence Van Horn have discovered that health care costs do not directly hinder U.S. competitiveness. Their conclusion: there is indeed a health care crisis in the United States as well as a competitiveness crisis. But the two are unrelated, and confusing them makes it difficult to solve either one. The real problem, according to the authors, is the hands-off approach that employers typically adopt when it comes to health care. No matter how Washington responds to the health care crisis, employers must explore their own role in ensuring the health of their work force. And they must realize that their role can be a strategic one. Instead of containing costs by fine-tuning benefits packages, companies can control costs and improve health care delivery by treating health care like any other crucial component of production. Brailer and Van Horn propose three strategies for managing health care delivery: First, companies must intervene in the supply side of the health care market. This may mean creating a clinic alone or with other companies, or joining with other companies to procure health care. Second, companies need to translate corporate health benefits into the most cost-effective set of services at the local level. Finally, companies must encourage and educate employees to participate in decisions regarding health care delivery.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)     

Precautionary Saving of Chinese and U.S. Households

We employ a model of precautionary saving to study why household saving rates are high in China and low in the United States. The use of recursive preferences gives a convenient decomposition of saving into precautionary and nonprecautionary components. Over 80% of China's saving rate and nearly all U.S. saving arises from the precautionary motive. The difference between U.S. and Chinese household income growth rates is vastly more important than income risk for explaining the saving rates. The key mechanism is that precautionary savers have target wealth‐to‐income ratios, and rapid income growth necessitates high saving rates to maintain the ratio.     

U.K. and U.S. trading of British cross-listed stocks: an intraday analysis of market integration

This article analyzes intraday patterns for U.K. and U.S. tradingof British cross-listed stocks. For each market, the intradaypatterns for these stocks closely resemble those of otherwisesimilar, non-cross listed stocks. There is a 2-hour period eachday when cross-listed stocks are traded both in New York andin London. This overlap is characterized by concentrated tradingas private information, originating in New York, gets incorporatedinto prices in both markets. Cross-border competition for orderflowtends to reduce already declining spreads in London. By contrast,New York specialists maintain