深化小企业贷款信用担保运作的若干思考

一、小企业贷款信用担保的现状及特点随着市场经济的不断发展,小企业贷款信用担保已成为解决中小企业融资难的重要手段。1998年6月我区在全市率先运用财政出资建立了“小企业贷款信用担保金”,经过三年多的运作,不仅推动了小企业尤其是科技型小企业的健康发展,而且促进了政府、金融和企业之间的良性互动。至2001年底,财政先后追加3,460万元,按1∶5的比例,可担保额度达1.7亿元。4年内共为185户小企业的224个项目提供了2.7亿元的贷款信用担保,担保户数和担保金额年均分别递增161%和176%。从逾期率和代偿率看,发生逾期的有4户企业共273万元,逾…     

对中小企业信用担保制度缺陷的建议

信用担保制度本身存在的制度性缺陷在美、英等国也是存在的,但它们通过完善的金融体系较好地弥补了这一缺陷。因此,研究发达国家完善的金融体系中各个组成部分的特点及其对中小企业融资所发挥的作用,对我们有很大启示。美、英等国针对中小企业的不同发展阶段,建立了相应的金融市场予以支持。一、创业阶段这一阶段由于企业风险太大,银行出于安全考虑一般不会介入,信用担保体系也由于自身的制度性缺陷而无法提供资金支持。企业的资金来源除了业主自己的股本外,主要依靠两个资金渠道:一个是"天使融资"和民间金融机构融资。"天使融资"即私人资本融资,指富裕的个人不通过金融中介机构,而是凭借自己的知识、管理才能和社会关系网络,直接以股     

关于信用评级业发展的几点建议

对于现代市场经济,没有一个健全的社会信用体系和信用制度,是难以健康、快速、稳定地发展的。信用评级是信用体系建设的一个重要组成部分,培育和发展信用评级业对全社会信用体系建设、防范与化解信用交易风险、降低市场主体的融资成本、提高市场经济和金融市场的运行效率、优化     

信用如何支持国家经济的发展--专访中国人民大学财政金融学院吴晶妹教授

记者:在现代经济条件下,信用活动与宏观经济的相关性进一步加强.请您谈谈信用活动与经济增长的关系?     

对广西信用担保机构有关情况的调查

广西中小企业已成为经济发展的主力军,但在中小企业融资过程中存在的抵押担保难问题始终制约着其进一步快速发展.1999年以来,为切实贯彻党中央、国务院关于促进中小企业发展的方针政策,在各级政府的大力支持下,广西一些地级市陆续成立了信用担保机构,这些信用担保公司主要以各地中小企业为基本服务对象,通过其信用担保活动,提高了中小企业的融资能力,为地方经济健康发展发挥了积极作用.尽管广西成立信用担保机构历史短,目前仍处于起步阶段,尚不能完全满足企业的要求和市场的需要,但随着2003年<中小企业促进法>及<下岗失业人员小额担保贷款管理办法>的逐步实施,地方中小企业信用担保机构可以获得更进一步的发展并有着良好的发展机遇.     

信用评级对债券融资成本的影响

信用评级不仅能为投资者提供风险信息,对企业来说也具有一定的信息含量。本文利用2011-2013年发行的企业债与公司债数据,用实证的方法研究信用评级对债券融资成本的影响,揭示出信用评级内在的信息含量。研究发现,债券信用评级对债券融资成本具有显著的解释力,债券融资成本随着信用评级的上升而下降,债券特征对债券融资成本的影响力要显著大于企业财务特征,企业财务信息并不能直接影响债券融资成本。     

偏紧的当下与广阔的未来--信用债一级市场融资现状及应对建议

伴随着金融体系的直接融资对间接融资的替代进程,信用债发展成为企业重要的融资渠道。刚兑的打破,也让监管层和市场参与者更为清楚地看到信用债融资目前仍存在的一些问题。文章从规模、券种、成本、区域、行业、企业、评级等多个角度深度刻画信用债一级市场融资现状,并从监管、地方和发行人层面提出了信用债融资的应对建议。     

阳泉市信用担保机构经营中存在的问题及对策——对阳泉市两家信用担保公司运作情况的调查

阳泉市个体私营企业担保有限公司和阳泉市中小企业担保中心成立三年来，在支持全市产业结构调整、财税收入增长、中小企业及个体私营企业发展、拓宽就业渠道、增加就业岗位以及维护社会秩序稳定等方面起到了积极的促进作用。但还存在一些困难和问题。     

中国金融市场信用风险模型研究与应用

文章运用中国金融市场和原银行信贷登记系统数据及人民银行组织的信用评级等数据资源,在金融工程理论和技术方法创新的基础上,借鉴国际信用风险模型中违约模式代表——KMV模型原理,实证建立由判别函数和违约强度共同构成的中国金融市场违约预警模型;借鉴国际信用风险模型中盯市模式代表——CreditMetrics模型原理,使用蒙特卡罗模拟方法实证建立中国金融市场信用组合计量模型;探索这两类模型在中国信贷市场、外汇市场、货币市场和债券市场风险管理实务中的应用;并在此基础上提出了政策性建议。     

金融危机下信用卡市场何去何从——访万事达卡顾问公司亚太区、中东与非洲区执行董事张允硕

由美国次贷危机引发的全球金融风暴至今已持续一年多.金融海啸不但淹没了美国金融业,就连实体经济亦受重创,失业率骤升.分析人士指出,经济衰退至今还没有要结束的迹象,若失业率继续攀升,更多消费者会无法偿还信用卡贷款,这将掀起备受市场关注的另一波巨浪--信贷危机.     

Capital and credit market integration and real economic contagion during the global financial crisis

This study investigates the role of financial integration in the spread of global financial crisis. In particular, this study shows how the effect of the crisis on real business cycle co-movement varied for capital and credit market integration, using a sample of 58 countries in 2001–2013. During the global financial crisis, the United States – the epicenter of the crisis – experienced a severe downturn in the real economy, and other countries followed suit. We find that during the global financial crisis, the business cycle co-movements between the United States and the rest of the world were stronger when the level of capital market integration between them was higher. However, the co-movements were weaker when the level of credit market integration was higher. These findings are robust even when including investment channels, local fundamental factors, endogenous policy responses across countries, and alternative measures for financial integration and business cycle co-movements.     

The sensitivity of the credit default swap market to financial analysts’ forecast revisions

We examine the impact of analysts’ earnings per share (EPS) and cash flow per share (CPS) forecast revisions on the market for credit default swaps. We find that while the issuance of both EPS and CPS forecast revisions are inversely associated with changes in credit default swap (CDS) spreads, cash flow forecast revisions have a larger effect. We demonstrate that the relationship between CPS forecast revisions and CDS spreads tends to be stronger in cases of financial distress. We provide evidence that cash flow forecasts dominate earnings forecasts in some situations and that participants in the CDS market discriminate between analysts' forecast revisions and recommendation changes.     

金融危机前后国际信用衍生产品市场的发展及启示

信用衍生产品自问世以来在分散金融机构信用风险、完善信用风险定价机制、提高债券市场流动性等方面发挥了积极的作用。该文介绍了信用衍生产品的主要功能及其在本次金融危机前、中、后三个时期的发展特点,肯定了基础信用衍生产品对金融市场的重要作用,指出中国应推动金融创新,建立有中国特色的信用衍生产品市场。     

The US financial crisis,market volatility,credit risk and stock returns in the Americas

We employ the multivariate DCC-GARCH model to identify contagion from the USA to the largest developed and emerging markets in the Americas during the US financial crisis. We analyze the dynamic conditional correlations between stock market returns, changes in the general economy’s credit risk represented by the TED spread, and changes in the US market volatility represented by the CBOE Volatility Index^® (VIX). Our sample includes daily closing prices from January 1, 2002 to December 31, 2015, for the USA and stock markets in Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru. We first identify that increases in VIX have a negative intertemporal and contemporaneous relationship with most of the stock returns, and these relationships increase significantly during the US financial crisis. We then find evidence of significant increases in contemporaneous conditional correlations between changes in the TED spread and stock returns. Increases in conditional correlations during the financial crisis are associated with financial contagion from the USA to the Americas. Our findings have policy implications and are of interest to practitioners since they illustrate that during periods of financial distress, US stock volatility and weakening credit market conditions could promote financial contagion to the Americas.

     

Illiquidity or credit deterioration: A study of liquidity in the US corporate bond market during financial crises

We investigate whether liquidity is an important price factor in the US corporate bond market. In particular, we focus on whether liquidity effects are more pronounced in periods of financial crises, especially for bonds with high credit risk, using a unique data set covering more than 20,000 bonds, between October 2004 and December 2008. We employ a wide range of liquidity measures and find that liquidity effects account for approximately 14% of the explained market-wide corporate yield spread changes. We conclude that the economic impact of the liquidity measures is significantly larger in periods of crisis, and for speculative grade bonds.     

Counterparty credit risk and the credit default swap market

Counterparty credit risk has become one of the highest-profile risks facing participants in the financial markets. Despite this, relatively little is known about how counterparty credit risk is actually priced. We examine this issue using an extensive proprietary data set of contemporaneous CDS transaction prices and quotes by 14 different CDS dealers selling credit protection on the same underlying firm. This unique cross-sectional data set allows us to identify directly how dealers' credit risk affects the prices of these controversial credit derivatives. We find that counterparty credit risk is priced in the CDS market. The magnitude of the effect, however, is vanishingly small and is consistent with a market structure in which participants require collateralization of swap liabilities by counterparties.     

风雨飘摇环境下的美元汇市

在次贷危机日益恶化的背景下,美元不跌反升,出人意料。面对美国经济和信心再次转弱的可能,此次美元反弹与其说有基本面的支持,不如说靠技术面的推动。美元汇率大幅波动给世界经济带来冲击。美国政府的更迭,总是伴随各项政策的变动,从而引发美元的波动。为了避免对全球产生不利影响,美国当局有责任确保美元汇率的基本稳定,促进世界经济尽快走出衰退阴影。     

Information externalities in the credit market and the spell of credit rationing

We present the first empirical study of loan searching strategies and loan granting decisions in a context where banks observe whether applicants have unsuccessfully applied for credit to other lenders in the past. Our identification strategy benefits from the use of granular data on loan applications and exploits the fact that evaluating lenders observe only the rejections received by a borrower up to six months before the current application. We document that past rejections diminish the probability of approval and increase the probability that a loan search is interrupted.