Industrial de-licensing, trade liberalization, and skill upgrading in India

We investigate the relationship between industrial de-licensing, trade liberalization, and skill upgrading during the 1980s and 1990s among manufacturing plants in India. We use a unique dataset on India's industrial licensing regime to test whether industrial de-licensing during the 1980s and 1990s played a role in skill upgrading, as measured by the employment and wagebill shares of white-collar workers. In addition, we assess the relative contribution of industrial de-licensing and trade liberalization to skill upgrading. We identify two main channels through which industrial de-licensing affects skill upgrading: capital- and output-skill complementarities. Using both difference-in-differences as well as regression discontinuity techniques, we find two important results. First, after controlling for the size-based exemption rule that determined whether or not a plant faced licensing restrictions, industrial de-licensing during the 1980s appears to have increased the relative demand for skilled workers via capital- and output-skill complementarities. Capital- and output-skill complementarities exist for plants in both licensed and de-licensed industries but were stronger in de-licensed industries during the 1980s, prior to India's massive trade liberalization reforms in 1991. Second, regardless of de-licensing, capital- and output-skill complementarities are generally weaker after trade was liberalized during the early 1990s. Together, capital- and output-skill complementarities contributed 75% (57%) and 31% (29%), respectively, of the growth in the employment and wagebill shares of white-collar workers in de-licensed (licensed) industries before trade was liberalized. After trade liberalization, these contributions were smaller. This suggests that trade liberalization may not have played a major role in raising the relative demand for skilled labor during the early 1990s.     

Trade liberalization, antidumping, and safeguards: Evidence from India's tariff reform

This paper is the first to use product-level data to examine empirically whether countries use antidumping and safeguard exceptions to unwind commitments to lower tariffs in the face of domestic political-economic pressure. We focus on the case of India, a country that underwent a major exogenous tariff reform program in the early 1990s and subsequently initiated substantial use of safeguard and antidumping import restrictions. We first estimate structural determinants of India's import protection using the Grossman and Helpman (1994) model and provide evidence from its pre-reform tariff data of 1990 that is consistent with the theory. We then re-estimate the model on the Indian tariff data after the trade liberalization is complete and find that the model no longer fits, a result consistent with theory and evidence provided in other settings that India's 1991-1992 IMF arrangement can be interpreted as resulting in an exogenous shock to India's tariff policy. However, when we re-estimate the model on data from 2000-2002 that more completely reflects India's cross-product variation in import protection by including both its post-reform tariffs and its additional non-tariff barriers of antidumping and safeguard import protection, the significance of the Grossman and Helpman model determinant estimates is restored. We interpret these combined results as evidence that India unwound its commitment to reduce tariffs through use of antidumping and safeguard protection in the face of political-economic pressure. The estimates are also economically important and provide one explanation for separate results in the literature that the magnitude of import reduction associated with India's use of antidumping is similar to the initial import expansion associated with its tariff reform. Finally, we interpret the implications of our results for the burgeoning research literature examining the effects of liberalization on India's micro-level development.     

U.S. immigration regulations and India's information technology industry

The export-led growth of India's information technology (IT) industry has been nothing short of phenomenal over the past half-dozen years. Other studies have provided a number of explanations for the growth. This paper proposes that a significant factor has been overlooked or understated in prior explanations. Specifically, the Indian IT industry has utilized U.S. immigration regulations for competitive advantage to accelerate its growth. The importance of this factor is estimated through quantitative data analysis at the macro and firm levels. The analysis helps to explain why India's IT industry grew while that of other developing countries, with similar human capital resources and wage rates, did not. The U.S. Congress is currently debating U.S. immigration policies and may change them in the near future. Any changes will have significant effects on the future growth pattern of the Indian IT industry. Many developing countries have recognized India's success, and policymakers in those countries are implementing strategies to replicate it. The results from this study may help those policymakers better understand a key factor of India's success in exporting IT.     

印度经济安全战略及对中国的借鉴

本文认为,印度经济安全战略定位属于防御型,其形式为分散嵌入型。现阶段印度经济安全战略的重点包括:粮食安全、能源安全、金融安全、科技信息安全和外资安全。印度经济安全战略的运行过程主要包括战略的制定、执行和评估。本文最后提出对我国构建经济安全战略的借鉴。     

从陕西猕猴桃产业的发展看如何构建陕西绿色农业产业集群

作为一种独特的产业集群模式,绿色农业产业集群对陕西省的经济发展起着重要的作用。从陕西猕猴桃的现状出发,以陕西猕猴桃产业发展所面临的问题为切入点,探讨了陕西省构建绿色农业产业集群的一些思路,为陕西绿色农业产业集群的发展提供了启示。     

农业现代服务业:以工促农的产业路径

农业现代服务业是现代服务业与农业实现产业耦合的产物,它既拓展现代服务业所涉及的产业领域,也能够有效地通过产业路径实现传统农业向现代农业的蜕变。农业现代服务业已在实践领域初露锋芒,并越来越表现为以工促农的产业路径,但理论界一直未对其进行系统地理论研究。发展农业现代服务业不仅需要从产业和谐角度进行产业理论创新,而且应大力鼓励现代服务业战略性"下乡"。     

中国农业低碳化转型的推进路径探析

低碳农业是低碳经济的重要组成部分。推动我国农业低碳化转型要解决诸多问题,例如如何提高低碳农业的经济效益,如何消除现代农业生产方式的不利影响,如何消化产业转型的初始成本,如何培育与低碳农业发展相适应的高端生产要素。要解决这些问题,关键是综合运用法律、政策、市场、技术、文化等手段,形成推动低碳农业发展的合力。     

印度软件业优势分析

印度计算机软件出口规模、产品质量和产品成本三项综合指标居世界第一位,印度是全球仅次于美国的第二大计算机软件出口国,全世界已有102个国家进口印度的计算机软件,其中28个国家完全依靠进口印度计算机软件和服务支撑.近年来印度软件业飞速发展,成为世界上软件业增长最快的国家,优势非常明显,它不仅具有英语优势,而且具有人才优势,更为重要的是质量的优势.     

我国东中西部地区间工业产业转移的趋势、特征及形成原因分析

本文主要对1993年至2006年期间我国东中西部地区间工业产业转移的趋势和特征进行了初步分析,并探讨了我国东中西部地区间产业转移的趋势和特征的形成以及与传统的国际产业转移理论出现背离的原因。本文统计分析结果表明:截止到2006年,我国东中西部地区间只发生了部分的相对产业转移,绝对产业转移的现象尚未发生,我国东中西部地区间的产业转移还不显著;在我国东中西部地区间的产业转移过程中,出现了部分技术密集型产业先于劳动型密集型产业转移和许多产业越过中部地区直接转移到西部地区的现象。本文研究结论的重要启示是:同一国度内区域间的产业转移与国际产业转移的条件有着很大的不同,因此在分析我国地区间产业转移时不能机械照搬国际产业转移理论;目前我国东中西部地区间大规模产业转移的条件还不成熟,因而在相当长一个时期内,试图通过东中西部地区间的产业转移来实现我国的区域协调发展以及解决国际金融危机背景下我国产业结构调整与扩大就业之间的矛盾还是相当困难的。     

供给侧改革视域下现代农业产业化联合体研究

农业供给侧结构性改革要求创新农业产业化组织形式,现代农业产业化联合体是探索农业产业化组织形式的新成果。农业产业链分工细化、农业技术进步及农产品市场格局转变是联合体产生的3大内在诱因,政策引导、制度规范保障和实践反思是联合体产生的良好制度环境。其运行机制是通过产业联接提升规模集聚效应,通过要素联接保障农产品质量安全,通过利益联接让农民分享产业链收益,进而契合农业供给侧结构性改革的目标与要求。巢湖粮食产业化联合体实证分析表明,联合体实现了粮食产业链各经营主体联接,使品质契合消费者需要,增加了农户收益,降低了农业生产成本,且运行绩效良好。应从培育各类经营主体、催化联接机制和建设政府服务平台等方面促进现代农业产业化联合体发展,使之成为引领农业供给侧结构性改革的重要载体与平台。     

现代农业与中国农业发展取向

从技术经济角度看,现代农业是以现代生物技术为核心、应用多领域高新技术生产多类别产品、拥有多种功能的新型农业形态。中国农业现代化建设应特别重视以下问题：全力推进近自然农业的快速发展,构建多级化、关联化的农业产业结构,强化农业基础设施及技术装备建设,大范围推广循环农业,建立具有显著特色的农业块状经济,优化农业生产技术与农业组织方式,加速农业的人本化、社会福利化进程。     

Are U.S. regions converging? Using new econometric methods to examine old issues

Are different regions of the United States experiencing convergence in levels of GDP? Carlino and Mills (1993) examined this question through time-series techniques, and found some evidence in favor of regional convergence. This paper checks the robustness of their results by using new econometric methods proposed by Vogelsang (1998). Our results, together with results from Loewy and Papell (1996), suggest there is stronger evidence in favor of convergence than previously thought based on the results of Carlino and Mills (1993). First version received: September 2000/Final version received: December 2000     

中国产业层次对地区初次分配 福利水平的提升效应——基于省级面板数据的实证分析

本文利用1993-2009年的省级面板数据，构建地区初次分配福利系数和产业层次系数，通过实证方法研究产业层次对地区初次分配福利水平的影响。研究表明，产业层次与地区初次分配福利水平正相关，产业层次越高，初次分配福利水平越高,产业层次对初次分配福利水平具有提升作用。产业层次系数增长率与地区初次分配福利系数增长率呈现先降后升的U型规律。这种U型变化具有经济发展的阶段性特点和区域性特点。产业层次的进一步提升对西部和中部福利水平的改进更明显，现代服务业产值结构提升的福利效应将在东部和东北地区体现得更明显。     

浅析农村经济发展

受国际金融危机的影响，我国的宏观经济发展尚未好转，经济增长速度仍然缓慢，形势依然严峻，受大环境的影响，农业农村经济发展也仍然萎缩难行。因此，必须通过加强市场的资源配置，调整农业农村产业结构，保证就业，促进增收，重视民生，从而维护农业农村的稳定和发展。     

湖南省农业产业化的发展思路

目前湖南省农业产业化经营雏形已经形成，但还存在龙头企业不强，产业特色不突出，科技含量不高，链条化比较松散以及投入不足等问题。为此必须通过调整结构，优化布局，加强农业基础设施建设，大力实施科技兴农，充分开发利用并有效地保护农业资源，尽快把湖南建成一个以高效农业、生态农业、创汇农业、旅游农业为特色的现代化农业强省。