Whither A Currency Union in Greater China?

The paper attempts to evaluate the prospect of creating a currency union in the “Greater China” economic area. Despite of the political deadlock and military confrontation in the Taiwan Strait, the Greater China area has experienced rapid and spontaneous regional integration in the past decades as a result of increasingly cross-border trade, foreign direct investment (FDI), technology contracts, and other arrangements in accordance with changes in comparative advantage and industrial upgrading in these economies. In this study, we focus on the symmetry in shocks that is perceived as one of the major preconditions of a currency union. In contrast to the previous studies, we investigate the time-varying correlation of supply, REER and monetary shocks by using the Kalman filter technique to assess the dynamic changes in structural similarity and convergence among the Greater China economies. We also examine the costs of forming a currency union in the area due to the loss of monetary autonomy in each economy. Our results suggest that there is a rising structural symmetry between the Greater China economies, and this area has become increasingly a better candidate for a monetary union.

Banking and the Macroeconomy in China: A Banking Crisis Deferred?

The downturn in the world economy following the global banking crisis has left the Chinese economy relatively unscathed. This paper develops a model of the Chinese economy using a DSGE framework with a banking sector to shed light on this episode. It differs from other applications in the use of indirect inference procedure to test the fitted model. The model finds that the main shocks hitting China in the crisis were international and that domestic banking shocks were unimportant. However, directed bank lending and direct government spending was used to supplement monetary policy to aggressively offset shocks to demand. The model finds that government expenditure feedback reduces the frequency of a business cycle crisis but that any feedback effect on investment creates excess capacity and instability in output.     

Was the expansion of housing credit in Japan good or bad?

This paper shows, using data from the Family Income and Expenditure Survey, that housing credit has become increasingly available over time in Japan, especially since 2000, and that this has made it easier for Japanese households to purchase housing and enabled them to do so at an earlier age. However, it also shows that the greater availability of housing credit has increased households’ housing loan repayment burden, which has resulted in their cutting back on their other consumption expenditures and created the potential for retirement insecurity. Another concern is that the increasing availability of housing credit has been accompanied by a pronounced shift from fixed-rate to variable-rate housing loans. This is cause for concern given the low level of financial literacy that prevails among the Japanese population and the likelihood that interest rates on variable-rate housing loans will be raised sooner or later as monetary policy is tightened.     

Is the Gulf Cooperation Council an Optimum Currency Area?

This article applies the theory of Generalized Purchasing Power Parity (G‐PPP) to assess the potential for an optimum currency area (OCA) for the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries over the period 1973–2009. Utilizing a multivariate cointegration procedure that allows for up to two predetermined structural breaks, the results suggest that the GCC countries could form an OCA since macroeconomic conditions are in favor of forming an OCA, i.e., real exchange rates share common trends and the parameter stability test indicates that the G‐PPP relationship has been stable for the period analyzed. Moreover, the results suggest that the withdrawal of Oman and/or United Arab Emirates (UAE) from the union has no impact on forming the union. However, based on other OCA criteria, the results suggest that the OCA may be challenged.     

Conference on development policies in Southern Africa: Was the future shaped?

The Development Society of Southern Africa held its biennial conference from 10—12 September at the University of Cape Town. The theme was ‘Development policies: Shaping the future of Southern Africa’. Fifty‐five papers were presented and discussed by some 350 people at plenary and parallel sessions. There was also a panel discussion, a number of lead‐in discussants, and a poster session; three conference newspapers containing the essence of the discussions were published and a number of videos on developmental and related topics were shown.

The question to be answered in this review is whether all these papers and other activities actually achieved what the conference set out to do: shaping the future development policy for Southern Africa.     

Single Currency in ECOWAS: Is the Proposed Fiscal Convergence Criterion Pro‐Growth?

To facilitate the introduction of a single currency in Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), the fiscal convergence criterion currently proposed by countries limits the public deficit to 3 per cent of GDP. According to the literature, the limitation of the public deficit to a given threshold is the most fundamental norm of the various convergence pacts existing and needed for monetary integration. Through a nonlinear panel data model, this paper tests the validity of the threshold by determining the public deficit threshold not to be exceeded so that fiscal policy has a positive effect on economic growth. Over the decade 2007–2016, this threshold is estimated at 4.74 per cent of GDP. Thus, the paper concludes that the proposed convergence criterion of 3 per cent of GDP is pro‐growth. However, in relation to the estimated threshold, there is a room for manoeuvre that can be used for supporting economic growth. Thus, the proposed threshold could be readjusted upward. The analysis also reveals that only four countries in ECOWAS are on the track to respect in the future, the proposed fiscal criterion and therefore are taking an important step toward the adoption of the future currency. The other countries need to make significant fiscal consolidation operations before hoping to adopt the single currency on the basis of fiscal discipline.     

Leading Indicators of Currency Crises: Are They the Same in Different Exchange Rate Regimes?

We investigate whether leading indicators of currency crises differ across exchange rate regimes using data for 88 countries in the period 1981–2010. Our estimates suggest that in fixed exchange rate regimes external indicators, such as deviations of the real exchange rate from trend and the growth of international reserves, have the strongest predictive power. In contrast, in floating exchange rate regimes monetary policy and credibility indicators, such as domestic credit growth and inflation, are the best leading indicators of currency crises. Both credibility and external economic indicators have predictive power in intermediate exchange rate regimes.     

Are Central Bankers Currency Manipulators?

The term “currency manipulator” has been used by the United States to describe the monetary practices of nations such as China and Japan and by Germany to describe U.S. monetary policy. This charge transcends monetary regimes and includes both traditional monetary policy and that in the service of industrial or developmental strategies that center on export led growth. While the latter clearly has a negative effect on employment and economic growth in the rest of the world, the increased international mobility of capital, combined with the wide-spread use of flexible exchange rates, has led to the same external effects from the normal conduct of monetary policy. Acknowledging and dealing with these negative external effects will lead to improved and less tension-filled international economic relations than calling nations “currency manipulators.”.     

Did the Recent Housing Boom Signal the Global Financial Crisis?

2005 prediction of the current global crisis followed from two key observations: (i) the recent housing booms in the United States and other advanced countries were not explained by economic fundamentals; and (ii) historically similar financial booms eventually collapsed, leading to recession. This article provides an empirical framework linking 2005 observations and crisis prediction. We utilize vector error correction models and panel probit and logit models to show that tracking a single variable, real house prices, was sufficient to predict the current global crisis.     

Do Parents Invest Less in Worse-Performing Children? Evidence from the Asian Financial Crisis

This article uses data from Indonesia around the time of the 1997–98 Asian financial crisis to examine the role of parental preferences in human capital accumulation. Using a household fixed-effects estimation, I test whether parental education spending is affected by child mathematics test scores. I find that parents are more sensitive to the human capital of younger children, who are penalised for having lower skills than their older siblings. Differences in investment by child gender or birth order are evident in 2000 but not in 1997. This suggests that parents may have an efficiency investment strategy only when resource-constrained, and that education of younger children may be a luxury good.     

Was there a Fall in the Return to Educational Investment in Norway, 1885–1955?

Abstract

The main results from this study are that private educational investment has proved a profitable investment throughout the whole period, but that there was a long-term decline in profitability, most of all in investment in the Upper Secondary Schools compared to primary education, where, in the 1950s, the profitability was zero or even negative. An important finding also is that this was not due to the sharpening emphasis on the progressive personal taxation. Of three possible explanations, the most plausible seems to be that there might have been an excess supply of college and academy candidates over the whole century.     

Asian Currency Baskets: An Answer in Search of a Question?

This paper considers whether an intra regional currency basket and the associated divergence indicators could play a useful role in official exchange rate surveillance. Recently, proponents of an Asian currency basket have referred to the role the European Currency Unit played in constructing exchange rate divergence indicators as evidence of the usefulness of intra regional currency baskets for exchange rate monitoring. The paper shows that such indicators have a number of features that can lead to them obscuring underlying changes in exchange rates and that the signals they emit will often be difficult to interpret. In addition, the use of regional currency baskets for surveillance can lead to potentially serious N − 1 problems in circumstances when there is not agreement about which regional currencies will be the anchor currencies.

Was technological change in the early Industrial Revolution Schumpeterian? Evidence of cotton textile profitability

Price and profit data between the 1770s and the 1820s from accounting records of three Lancashire cotton firms help to illumine the nature of the economic processes at work in early industrialization. Many historians have seen the Industrial Revolution as a Schumpeterian process in which discontinuous technological change led by the mechanized factories of the cotton industry created large profits for innovators that persisted in succeeding decades while technology slowly diffused. In this view imperfect capital markets limited the use of the new technology, keeping profits high. Reinvestment of these profits gradually financed expansion of innovating firms. The new technology dominated only after a long diffusion process. The evidence here, however, supports a more equilibrium view in which the industry expanded rapidly and prices fell in response to technological change. Expansion of the industry led to dramatic declines in the prices of cotton goods as early as the 1780s. There is no evidence of super-normal profits thereafter. Prices continued to fall and output expand thereafter as cost-reducing technological change continued.     

Do Currency Barriers Solve the Border Effect Puzzle? Evidence from the CFA Franc Zone

In this paper, we use a gravity model to investigate the extent to which currency barriers explain the border effect puzzle, i.e. the impact of national borders on international trade. We focus on the two monetary unions of the CFA Franc Zone in West and Central Africa. We find that these countries display large border effects, and that currency barriers explain between 17 per cent and 28 per cent of the overall border effect. JEL no. F11, F15, F33     

Is an Optimum Currency Area Feasible in East and South East Asia?

Abstract

In the backdrop of the recent economic crisis in the European Union, this study attempts to assess the degree of regional integration and the suitability of a monetary union in the East and South-East Asian (ESEA) region. For this purpose, we analyse the issue in a variety of ways. First, a long-run linkage of real output of the countries is tested using the cointegration analysis. Results suggest that real output of most of the countries in the region is cointegrated and move together in the long-run. To analyse the issue in detail, we focus on the impact of three different shocks, namely global, regional and country-specific, on real output of the countries. Results of impulse response and variance decomposition analysis reveal that regional shocks do not dominate in the sample countries, which is an indication of unfavourable condition to form an optimal currency area (OCA) in the region. These results are further confirmed by the outcome of computation of the modified Bayoumi and Eichengreen's Indices. Finally, we employ the concept of Generalized Purchasing Power Parity (G-PPP), which however reveals that the bilateral real exchange rate of ESEA countries move together in the long-run and share a common stochastic trend, which in turn provides some empirical support for an OCA in the region.     

Optimal Currency Area: A twentieth Century Idea for the twenty-first Century?

We take stock of the history of the European Monetary Union and pegged exchange-rate regimes in recent decades. The post-Bretton Woods greater financial integration and under-regulated financial intermediation have increased the cost of sustaining a currency area and other forms of fixed exchange-rate regimes. Financial crises illustrated that fast-moving asymmetric financial shocks interacting with real distortions pose a grave threat to the stability of currency areas and fixed exchange-rate regimes. Members of a currency union with closer financial links may accumulate asymmetric balance-sheet exposure over time, becoming more susceptible to sudden-stop crises. In a phase of deepening financial ties, countries may end up with more correlated business cycles. Down the road, debtor countries that rely on financial inflows to fund structural imbalances may be exposed to devastating sudden-stop crises, subsequently reducing the correlation of business cycles between currency area’s members, possibly ceasing the gains from membership in a currency union. A currency union of developing countries anchored to a leading global currency stabilizes inflation at a cost of inhibiting the use of monetary policy to deal with real and financial shocks. Currency unions with low financial depth and low financial integration of its members may be more stable at a cost of inhibiting the growth of sectors depending on bank funding.     

Corporate Governance Reforms in the Post-1997 Asian Crisis: Is There Really a Convergence to the Anglo-American Model?

Abstract

Following the 1997-Asian crisis, a number of crisis-hit countries were committed to the rapid transformation of the corporate governance system to one that is modeled after the Anglo-American system. This, as the article argues, is based on a false premise, that what may have worked in the United States/United Kingdom can also be applied in East Asia. In this regard, the convergence at the firm level is seen to be more in “form” rather than in “substance”. This study assesses Singapore's corporate system in terms of its recognition of the merits of the Western model. It then details the corporate governance style of Temasek Holdings Limited (THL), a state- owned enterprise (SOE) in charge of monitoring government investments in companies. The choice of THL as a case study is based on the premise that THL operates very much like a private sector corporation. In addition, it has the ability to influence the standard of corporate governance of Singaporean SOEs. Because the SOEs are large players in their respective industries, the corporate governance of SOEs establish the standards and expectations for monitoring in non-SOEs. There are indications to suggest that the THL has taken into consideration certain aspects of corporate governance practices that may not necessarily be in line with those advocated by the Singapore government. The article argues that selective adaptation such as the style adopted in the THL more realistically portrays the corporate governance practices of East Asian corporations.     

Was colonialism really useless?

Abstract

Now that the dust of battle begins to settle over Africa's anti-colonial struggles a less impassioned, or at any rate a less subjective, historiography can start to offer judgments of “gain” and “loss” for either side, the coloniser and the colonised; and the whole long process of European invasion and dispossession can likewise begin to reveal its ambiguous nature. Even so, the case being complex, controversy may be expected to continue. During the colonial decades, beginning roughly in the 1880s, the weight of authoritative comment in the imperialist countries was naturally strong on the theme of “gain”: then, and for many years later, colonialism and its systems were shown as being dearly advantageous to the colonised as well as to the coloniser. “We” had acted for the good of all concerned; and if “errors” had occurred, or collapses into violence and bloodshed, these were only the eccentric faults of human nature. Such errors were not integral to the grand imperial enterprise: quite simply, they should not have happened. And of course they need not have happened, since the enterprise, whether in principle or in practice, was concerned with the spreading of a Christian and therefore peace-abiding civilisation.     

Did Better Firms Enter the Indonesian Manufacturing Sector after the 1997–98 Crisis?

Motivated by a concern that Indonesia is on the path to deindustrialisation, this article uses data from 1991 to 2009 to examine whether there were differences in the characteristics of entrants to the Indonesian manufacturing sector before and after the 1997–98 Asian financial crisis. It finds that entrants after the crisis were larger or less dependent on credit than their predecessors, suggesting that they were more resilient to economic shocks. Yet entrants after the crisis exported relatively less than their predecessors. Meanwhile, productivity levels were the same before and after the crisis, indicating that entrants were able to match the productivity level of incumbents. Contrary to the concerns about deindustrialisation, these characteristics may simply reflect a dynamic that resulted in better or more resilient firms entering the industry after the crisis.