贝叶斯决策在序贯分析应用

风险决策的主要特点是具有状态发生的不确定性,这种不确定性不能通过相同条件下的大量重复试验来确定其概率分布,因此往往只能根据“过去的信息或经验”由决策者估计。为区别由随机试验确定的客观概率,我们把前者称为主观概率。进行风险决策的传统方法之一是贝叶斯方法,贝叶斯决策主要是通过积分的方法来解决连续性概率分布的决策,建立收益函数。在序贯分析中,我们可以将贝叶斯决策应用于其中,建立贝叶斯决策模型,最后结合实例,对上述方法的应用过程进行了说明。     

系统分析法在项目评估中的应用

本文立足于项目评估的基本理论,将项目评估分为宏观经济因素与微观经济因素分类成具体指标,按照专家分析法定性分析各指标风险指数,用定量法构造风险判断矩阵,提出了项目的总体风险及各评估指标的风险判断模型,本文梳理了项目评估的基本脉络,为书写同类论文提供参考依据。     

中缅铁路工程建设中风险监测模型构建与实证检验

"一带一路"倡议自提出以来,中国企业承建海外基础设施项目日益增加。由于海外工程项目参与者众多、投资巨大、施工难度高,存在众多风险因素,现有的文献对于工程风险评估的研究大多存在数据主观性过大和无法逆向推理等问题。针对上述问题,文章提出了将三角模糊数与贝叶斯网络法相结合的风险评估方法。选取中缅铁路项目为研究对象,首先通过三角模糊数法将专家的评估数据转换为所需的模糊数语言,然后在构建贝叶斯网络后利用联合树法得出工程发生风险的概率,再通过正向和逆向推理,测算各风险因素对工程风险的影响程度,最终利用敏感性分析对各风险因素进行排序,确定影响工程风险的敏感因素。发现其政治风险、社会文化风险较高,自然风险、经济风险、技术风险较低,符合工程实际情况。与其他评估方法相比,该方法有效降低了数据主观性并且考虑了风险因素之间的相互作用与传递路径,使得评估结果具有更高的可靠性,有效完善了海外重大工程项目的风险评价体系。     

研发项目进度重大偏差标准设定与应用研究

为保证研发项目的按时完工率,研究了一种定量的、系统的进度重大偏差标准和风险预留时间设定方法。该方法结合大量的实际项目数据,构筑了一个重大偏差标准的统计分析模型;通过显著性检验,发现回归效果是显著的,具有较高的可信度;通过实际案例,对重大偏差标准设定方法的使用进行了探讨。另外,也研究了通过概率统计确定重大偏差标准的方法。实际应用数据表明,这些方法能够有效地进行重大偏差标准的制定,确保项目按时完工,并实现持续改进。     

供应链风险评估中贝叶斯网络的应用

由于供应链系统涉及实体元素多,不确定的环境和因素复杂多变,在构建供应链体系贝叶斯网络风险评估模型时存在网络结构构造繁琐、易受主观因素影响等缺点。因此,在讨论联合事件树分析法和故障树分析法构建贝叶斯网络结构的可行性及方法的基础上,构建了供应链失效体系贝叶斯网络模型,对供应链失效风险进行了评估。证实了该方法下所构造的贝叶斯网络模型更有利于对供应链失效风险进行评估与管理。     

基于贝叶斯理论的项目融资租赁信用风险决策研究

针对项目融资租赁租期长、还款期限长、潜在风险因素多等特点,本文引入贝叶斯风险决策分析方法建立项目融资租赁信用风险决策模型。研究结果表明,贝叶斯决策属于风险型决策,决策者虽不能控制客观因素的变化,但却可根据其变化的可能状况及各种状况的分布概率,利用期望值或风险度作为决策准则,使得决策更加准确,降低决策的风险程度。     

企业风险分析与风险概率的修正

近年来，风险分析方法的应用研究取得了较大进展，它的优势与不足也逐渐显现出来。比如概率分析方法在应用中就存在着客观概率不易确定的难点问题，因此，需用专家经验预测法先得到主观概率后，利用贝叶斯公式加以修正，获得后验概率，再用后验概率代替客观概率进行风险的度量及风险收益的计算。而实施这一设想的必要前提是明确风险分析方法的财务定位，提高企业财务管理水平。     

基于信息修正的非期望效用模型

人们对事件发生的可能性存在着主观判断。在不同的概率区间,人们对概率变化的敏感度是不一样的。传统的期望效用理论忽视了决策者对概率的主观反应,无法准确描述风险决策行为。基于信息修正的非期望效用模型,将客观概率转换成主观决策权重,可以弥补期望效用模型在捕捉决策者对概率主观反应方面的缺陷;同时,利用基于信息修正的非期望效用模型,通过量化人们在购买保险或股票时对风险的主观概率判断,可以对人们的保险需求和证券投资行为作出更好的解释或预测。     

引入高技术投资项目评估体系研究

科学的评估体系对于高技术投资项目的成功引入和风险控制具有重要作用。首先建立了包含技术能力、产业化预期、商业性运作和支撑体系4个维度在内的全面评估指标体系;在此基础上对各个指标制定了五级评估标准,确定了指标权重;最后构建了以模糊综合评价为基础的评估模型和方法,讨论了引入标准。通过建立高技术引入项目评估框架,为技术转移和孵化中心及风险投资机构的相关工作提供了指导。     

企业ERP项目实施过程中的七大风险

ERP在我国的应用已有20余年,但是应用ERP的成功率始终不高,造成这种情况的原因有很多.本文旨在通过对企业ERP项目实施过程中存在的风险进行分析,使企业能够在实施ERP项目的时候尽量规避风险,进而使ERP能够在企业成功实施.     

John Stuart Mill's Theory Of Justice

John Stuart Mill has traditionally been portrayed as self-contradictory and failing to construct a unified social theory. Recent scholarship, however, has challenged this view, finding Mill's work to be creatively synthetic in bridging the antinomies inherent in liberal democratic thought. This revisionist interpretation of Mill is advanced by an understanding of his theory of justice and its role in shaping his policy positions on issues such as welfare, education, voting rights, property rights, taxation, government intervention, and the future of capitalism.     

A Rich Vein for “Reality Mining”北大核心CSSCISSCI

Arik Hesseldahl In the aftermath of the September 11 attacks, U.S. officials quickly turned their attention to other potential targets, including California's Golden Gate Bridge. What would happen if terrorists took down the bridge between San Francisco and Marin County? How much of the region would be affected and for how long?     

John Stuart Mill's Theories of Wealth and Income Distribution

Although he was much influenced by David Ricardo when he wrote the classical part of his Principles , John Stuart Mill was not a Ricardian when he penned his theories of wealth and distribution. They are based on a triple foundation. First, a belief that economics is a moral discipline. Second a theory of custom-driven human behavior. Third, an empirically formed conviction that the institutions of state, education and business cooperate to structure the distribution of income. On the basis of these presuppositions, Mill formulated 1) an institutional theory of the formation of human and non-human wealth and 2) an even more institutional theory of distribution demonstrating how the aforementioned institutions malignantly skew the distribution of income to the advantage of the propertied classes and to the extreme disadvantage of the working class. As a social economist, Mill recommended institutional reforms designed to eradicate the poverty of the working class.     

中国养活自己能力的长期预测:技术和政策分析

中国拥有世界五分之一强的人口 ,收入又在迅速增长。因此 ,国际上很自然地会考虑或推测她在今后的几十年是否有能力养活自己。中国的人口预计将从 2 0 0 0年的 1 2 8亿增长到 2 0 2 0年的 1 4 6亿 ,和 2 0 3 0年的 1 4 9亿。与此同时 ,人均收入的增长将导致对家畜和鱼类产品更大的需求 ,因而对饲料的需求也将有很大的增长     

Toward a Phylogenetic Reconstruction of Organizational Life

Synopsis Classification is an important activity that facilitates theory development in many academic disciplines. Scholars in fields such as organizational science, management science and economics and have long recognized that classification offers an approach for ordering and understanding the diversity of organizational taxa (groups of one or more similar organizational entities). However, even the most prominent organizational classifications have limited utility, as they tend to be shaped by a specific research bias, inadequate units of analysis and a standard neoclassical economic view that does not naturally accommodate the disequilibrium dynamics of modern competition. The result is a relatively large number of individual and unconnected organizational classifications, which tend to ignore the processes of change responsible for organizational diversity. Collectively they fail to provide any sort of universal system for ordering, compiling and presenting knowledge on organizational diversity. This paper has two purposes. First, it reviews the general status of the major theoretical approaches to biological and organizational classification and compares the methods and resulting classifications derived from each approach. Definitions of key terms and a discussion on the three principal schools of biological classification (evolutionary systematics, phenetics and cladistics) are included in this review. Second, this paper aims to encourage critical thinking and debate about the use of the cladistic classification approach for inferring and representing the historical relationships underpinning organizational diversity. This involves examining the feasibility of applying the logic of common ancestry to populations of organizations. Consequently, this paper is exploratory and preparatory in style, with illustrations and assertions concerning the study and classification of organizational diversity.     

Information infrastructure: Who builds broadband networks?

This paper examines the essential difference between the U.S. and Japan, when one considers information infrastructure. There are seven perception gaps between the U.S. and Japan concerning Information Infrastructure policies. These gaps must be understood in order to compare the countries' governmental policies in this area. In looking at the present circumstances, the essential question to answer concerns who is to build, own and operate the network(s) of the infrastructure. Liberalization is certain to be a central factor in the ongoing telecommunications debates. Now that customers have had a taste of the liberalized market-place, the movement toward more open markets will be difficult to stop. When considering options, it is necessary to pay close attention to standardized network access and the increasingly important role software plays. These issues are causing us to take a new approach to the traditional role played by regulators. They also force a closer look at the appropriate structure of utility companies. This paper addresses the above issues in hopes of stimulating dialog on the new telecommunications infrastructure paradigm.     

海岛地区产业演替及资源基础分析--以舟山群岛为例

改革开放以来,舟山市产业构成发生了显著变化,其经济发展过程可以划分为三个阶段。1992年前,是以产业结构渔业占绝对地位的单一结构阶段;1993—1998年,以旅游业为主的第三产业快速发展阶段;上世纪末以来,又进入了新一轮的经济发展时期,即工业产值比重快速增加阶段。根据海岛的自然资源基础和特点,在新世纪的经济发展过程中,舟山市应定位为生态型的港口旅游城市。以港口及临港工业为主导,以海岛旅游和海洋经济为特色,大力发展第二产业和第三产业。海岛地区的主导产业应体现海岛资源优势及区位优势,以集群性环保型产业为主。同时由于海岛地区淡水资源缺乏,主导产业也应着重选择低耗水型产业。     

风险视角下企业治理结构和研发创新——基于委托代理模型的研究

本文基于委托代理模型,从风险的视角研究企业治理结构对研发创新能力的影响。本文构建了一个包含创新活动的委托代理模型进行理论分析,利用动态DEA 模型测算创新能力,并使用2015-2018年我国上市制造业企业数据进行实证检验。实证部分检验了理论结论:委托代理问题不利于企业提升研发创新能力,且客观风险和主观风险厌恶会加剧该负面影响。基于此,本文认为上市企业应根据企业自身研发活动特点有针对性地改善企业治理结构,提出了适当延长代理人任期、推动股权激励计划、提升代理人的风险承担能力等建议。     

生物群落结构原型的仿生学模拟

模拟生命系统管理规律的科学即管理仿生学,是知识时代仿生学研究的新领域与前沿.基于模拟生物群落结构规律的研究目的,采用仿生学模拟的研究方法,以生物群落结构为原型,建立了仿生群落结构模型.结论为:垂直结构、水平结构、时间结构与交错区结构是支持生物群落生命活动的结构规律,以该规律为原型,推理建立了仿生分层结构、仿生优化结构、仿生动态结构与仿生相邻结构,四种仿生结构分别侧重于管理资源的分层管理、局部优化管理、动态过程管理、相邻关系管理,该模型为建立类似生物群落的人造管理系统即仿生群落管理系统提供了仿生结构模型.可以预测,该模型具有广泛的应用价值,能够推动管理仿生学的发展.