我国商业银行的效率现状及生产率变动分析

本文运用数据包络分析方法和Malmquist指数对我国28家三类商业银行2000～2004年的技术效率、纯技术效率和规模效率以及全要素生产率变动进行了测算。结果发现,三类商业性银行的效率存在差异:国有商业银行的规模效率最低,并且呈规模报酬递减;股份制商业银行效率略高于国有商业银行;城市商业银行效率由相对最低转为相对最高。总体上看,银行业全要素生产率呈上升趋势,技术效率呈下降趋势,规模效率无明显变化。本文的主要结论是:规模是影响国有商业银行和股份制商业银行效率差异的主要因素,银行全要素生产率的变动受信息技术发展的推动以及宏观环境的影响。     

Bank Productivity Change and Off-Balance-Sheet Activities Across Different Levels of Economic Development

This study analyses the impact of OBS on banking productivity growth using a sample of 712 banks from 84 countries between 1999 and 2006. Our international setting allows us to analyse differences on the performance on banking institutions among various groups of countries with different economic and financial innovations development. We estimate cost and profit productivity growth using a parametric approach that decomposes the change in risk-adjusted cost and profit performance into two main components: changes in business conditions and changes in productivity. The latter one is decomposed further into the change in best practice and change in (in)efficiency.     

浙江省银行业全要素生产率研究——与美、德、韩的比较

本文以全国主要商业银行在浙江分支机构的总和为基本单位,同时选取美国、德国、韩国银行业作为比较单元,运用数据包络分析(DEA)中的Malmquist指数模型,实证了2000年至2008年期间浙江银行业全要素生产率的变化情况。结果显示,与其他三个经济体的银行业比较,浙江银行业效率较低;样本期内浙江银行业规模效率有较快的改进,但技术进步效率则有所恶化;进一步的实证表明,在样本期的前半段,浙江银行业的效率尚不及其他三个国家的银行业在上世纪90年代相应年份的水平,后期差距有所缩小。     

中国金融市场化与开放进程对银行效率的影响研究——基于DEA的Malmquist指数方法

本文一方面结合我国金融市场化与开放进程的沿革路径,构建中国金融自由化指数;另一方面采用非参数的数据包络分析方法计算Malmquist指数,以此来衡量银行效率。在此基础上,我们对中国金融自由化进程与银行效率的内在关联展开计量分析。研究发现,伴随着中国金融市场化与开放政策的渐近推进和逐步深化,中国银行业的整体效率有了明显的改善。这其中受益良多的是股份制商业银行,而国有商业银行的效率虽有所改善,但成效并不明显。     

Do cross-country differences in bank efficiency support a policy of “national champions”?

As banking consolidation proceeds and Europe moves toward a single market, cross-country differences in banking efficiency can affect the future competitive position of a country’s financial market, helping to determine which European money centers may expand or contract. Looking at large banks across 10 countries, we find they are roughly equally efficient after controlling for differences in business environment, banking costs, and bank productivity. As no country seems to have a strong efficiency advantage, it seems likely that state efforts to promote “national champions” through favorable mergers which expand scale and market share may determine the outcome.     

Branch banking network assessment using DEA: A benchmarking analysis—A note

This paper presents a benchmarking analysis of the branches and regional banks of a large French banking group. The analysis focuses on operational performance. Starting from an ‘individual’ diagnosis at branch level, a ‘network’ diagnosis is developed at regional bank level. The aim of the paper is to develop (i) operational performance indicators from the inefficiency score and (ii) a benchmarking procedure adapted to the network structure of the banking group under study. The banking group comprises 1611 branches that form 16 regional groups. The branches operate in six different business environments. A method is therefore required (a) to aggregate the inefficiency scores of individual branches to evaluate the regional groups and (b) to integrate the differences in environment into the evaluation procedure. Inefficiency scores are calculated using the data envelopment analysis (DEA) approach. This is based on the principle of comparison; once identified, the best practices are used to construct the efficiency frontier. Each entity is then positioned relative to that frontier. The model proposed in this paper determines one efficiency frontier for each type of environment. The results reveal that 30% of branches are efficient. Special emphasis is placed on quantifying productivity gains at regional bank level and on practicing intra- and inter-regional bank benchmarking.     

IT use,productivity, and market power in banking

Information management is a core process in banking that can resolve information asymmetries and thereby help to mitigate competitive pressure. We test if the use of information technology (IT) contributes to bank output, and how IT-augmented bank productivity relates to differences in market power. Detailed bank-level information on the use of IT reveals a substantial upward bias in bank productivity estimates when ignoring banks’ IT expenditures. IT-augmented bank productivity correlates positively with Lerner markups. A mere increase in IT expenditures, however, reduces markups. Results hold across a range of bank output definitions and productivity estimation methods.     

The role of regulatory credibility in effective bank regulation

This paper develops a model of regulated Brownian motion with an endogenous profit term to analyze the role of regulatory credibility on the stability and productivity of the banking system. We show that when regulatory intervention is perfect and costless, the volatility of the system can be substantially reduced with no loss of productivity. In fact, perfect credibility can actually reduce the volatility of intrinsically risky banking systems below the volatility of intrinsically less risky systems as banks anticipate intervention and mitigate their investment behaviour accordingly. However, when the credibility of the regime is weakened because of increased uncertainty stemming from regulation, such as random costs or imperfect timing of regulatory intervention, both the stability and productivity of the financial system are impaired. Importantly, we find that in the presence of regulatory costs and imperfect credibility, there is no universal optimal intervention policy rule. The optimal regulatory system depends on the regulator’s level of absolute risk aversion.     

中国银行业结构性全要素生产率增长研究

在深化银行业供给侧结构性改革背景下,如何科学评价银行业的结构性全要素生产率(TFP)增长具有重要意义。区别于早期针对个体样本的技术性TFP增长研究,本文通过构建并分解加总的Luenberger生产率指标对我国银行业以及不同类型银行的结构性TFP增长及来源进行有效评价。结果显示,研究期间,我国银行业的结构性TFP增长表现良好,其中,整体技术进步是主要驱动力;进一步分解发现,制度创新改善和加总的个体技术进步推动了银行业结构性TFP增长。在整体效率变化方面,加总的个体技术效率变化和结构效率变化都有待提高,其中,范围效率变化是抑制结构效率改善的主要因素。考虑不同类型银行,制度创新变化对所有类型银行的结构性TFP增长都影响显著,加总的个体技术变化对股份制和地区性银行的结构性TFP增长贡献更突出;加总的个体技术效率变化、结构效率变化、范围效率变化和规模效率变化对不同类型银行的结构性TFP增长作用有限。     

Productivity and Technical Change in Malaysian Banking: 1989–1998

This study examines the impact of deregulation and technological change on the productivity of Malaysian banks over the period 1989–1998. Malmquist indices constructed with nonparametric DEA techniques are decomposed into their pure efficiency, scale efficiency, and technological change components. Our findings indicate an erosion of banking productivity that masks divergent tendencies among its component elements. These are dominated by adverse effects of technological change, which are associated with a reduction in the labor intensity of banking activity. Consistent with the mixed findings reported in the literature, the present investigation suggests that regulatory reform and liberalization are not sufficient conditions for productivity improvement.JEL classification: D24, G21This paper was written while Dogan was a member of Monash University Malaysia. Financial support from the Faculty of Business and Economics at Monash University is gratefully acknowledged, as are the constructive comments from two anonymous referees.     

中国银行体系脆弱性的识别与预测

银行体系脆弱性是在银行持续经营的前提下,银行体系内多种风险的积聚状态.本文分析了银行体系脆弱性的周期性与内生性特征,构建出月度核心测度指数,识别中国银行体系的脆弱性:运用平滑区制转移模型(STAR)研究其动态演化路径,并利用自助抽样法对未来一段时期中国银行体系脆弱性的变化进行预测.结果表明,2007年以来,中国银行体系脆弱性较高,并持续在较高的水平上振荡;其动态变化路径是非单调积聚的,从高区制状态返回到低区制状态需要较长时间:未来一段时期的银行体系脆弱性将继续保持在较高水平.     

A productivity analysis of Central and Eastern European banking taking into account risk decomposition and environmental variables

This paper develops a Luenberger productivity index that is applied to a technology where desirable and undesirable outputs are jointly produced and are possibly negative. The components of this Luenberger productivity index - the efficiency change and the components of the technological shift - are then decomposed into factors determined by the technology, adjusted and then for ‘risk and environment’, ‘risk management’ and ‘environmental effects’. The method is applied to Central and Eastern European banks operating during 1998-2003 utilising three alternative input/output methodologies (intermediation, production and profit/revenue). Additionally, the comparative analysis of the sensitivity of the productivity indices in the choice of the methodologies is undertaken using statistical and kernel density tests. It is found that the main driver of productivity change in Central and Eastern European banks is technological improvement. That is, in the beginning of the analysed period, the results hinged on the banks ability to capitalise on advanced technology and successfully take into account ‘risk and environmental’ factors. Whereas, in later periods, one of the most important factors of technological improvement/decline was ‘risk management’. Finally, the tests employed confirm previous findings, such as Pasiouras (2008)in this journal, that different input/output methodologies produce statistically different productivity results. Finally, we find that external factors, such as ‘risk in the economy’ and banking production, and a ‘corruption perception’ affect the productivity of banks.     

Customer readiness to co-production of mobile banking services: a customer-only co-production perspective

This paper aimed to identify the antecedents and corollary of customer readiness for co-production in customer-only co-production services using mobile banking services as a context. Using a structured questionnaire, data were gathered from a sample of mobile banking customers in Ghana and the UK and the data analysis was facilitated by structural equation modelling. From the findings, the antecedents were customer socialisation, customer self-efficacy and customer motivation and the corollary was service productivity. The findings provide managers of customer-only co-production or technology-based services particularly mobile banking services with the specific factors that can be managed strategically and tactically to enhance customer readiness for co-production and service productivity. This study is one of a kind to conceptualise and empirically identify the antecedents and corollary of customer readiness for co-production within the customer-only co-production context. However, as the study was limited to mobile banking services, future studies might test the research model in other customer-only technology-based services.

     

Back to the basics in banking? A micro-analysis of banking system stability

This paper analyzes the relationship between banks’ divergent strategies toward specialization and diversification of financial activities and their ability to withstand a banking sector crash. We first generate market-based measures of banks’ systemic risk exposures using extreme value analysis. Systemic banking risk is measured as the tail beta, which equals the probability of a sharp decline in a bank’s stock price conditional on a crash in a banking index. Subsequently, the impact of (the correlation between) interest income and the components of non-interest income on this risk measure is assessed. The heterogeneity in extreme bank risk is attributed to differences in the scope of non-traditional banking activities: non-interest generating activities increase banks’ tail beta. In addition, smaller banks and better-capitalized banks are better able to withstand extremely adverse conditions. These relationships are stronger during turbulent times compared to normal economic conditions. Overall, diversifying financial activities under one umbrella institution does not improve banking system stability, which may explain why financial conglomerates trade at a discount.     

Technological innovations in the Indian banking industry: the late bloomer

Given that technological innovations in the banking sector in industrialised countries have been shown to increase productivity of this industry around the world, then why did India shy away from adopting this technology until the 1990s? Why has India been a late adopter of technology in the banking industry when it could have reaped the benefits from the existing R&D expertise developed by innovators and early adopters? This article charts out the path of technological innovation in the Indian banking industry post-economic liberalisation (1991-2) and identifies initial conditions in terms of competitive environment and regulatory pressures that have contributed to the diffusion of these innovations. The article highlights the role of labour unions in public sector banks and their initial opposition to technological adoption. The empirical analysis demonstrates the superior performance of the early adopters of technology (private sector and foreign banks) as measured by productivity, returns on equity, and market share, as compared to the late or passive adopters (public sector banks).     

Money Market Pressure and the Determinants of Banking Crises

This article develops an index of money market pressure to identify banking crises. We define banking crises as periods in which there is excessive demand for liquidity in the money market. We begin with the theoretical foundation of this new method. With the newly defined crisis episodes, we examine the determinants of banking crises using data complied from 47 countries. We find that slowdown of real GDP, lower real interest rates, extremely high inflation, large fiscal deficits, and over-valued exchange rates tend to precede banking crises. The effects of monetary base growth on the probability of banking crises are negligible.     

Comparing bank concentration across countries

Cross-country comparisons of traditional measures of concentration, such as the Herfindahl index, are of limited use for answering normative questions such as: ‘Is the banking system too concentrated in our country?’ This paper develops a measure of concentration, essentially by normalising the Herfindahl index by a minimum feasible value for that index based on market size for each country. A formal derivation is given, and the measure is related to the mark-up of price over marginal cost for banking services. The empirical implications of the new measure are illustrated by reference to some recent studies.     

Scale economies,X-efficiency,and convergence of productivity among bank holding companies

Are the less productive banks catching up to the more productive ones and, if so, how quickly and by what means? The objective of this study is to answer these questions by looking for convergence in productivity among bank holding companies (BHCs) in the US Past research has identified two major factors governing productivity in the banking sector – scale economies and X-efficiency. If the gains from scale economies decline with firm size and if the only difference between BHCs lies in their initial size, then the initially smaller BHCs should eventually catch up to the initially larger ones because the former tend to grow more quickly. However, the findings from this study do not support this hypothesis of “absolute convergence”. Indeed, the findings show strong evidence for “conditional convergence”, which means that the steady-state productivity to which a BHC is converging is conditional on the BHCs own level of X-efficiency. Conditional convergence implies that initial differences in X-efficiency among BHCs can, between them, create permanent differences in steady-state productivity.     

Productivity,technology and efficiency of De Novo Islamic banks: Empirical evidence from Malaysia

The impact of foreign banks’ entry on the conventional banking sector has been well documented in the literature. However, empirical evidence on the impact of foreign banks’ entry on the Malaysian Islamic banking sector is completely missing from the literature. By employing the Malmquist Productivity Index method, the article provides, for the first time, empirical evidence on the impact of foreign banks’ entry on the efficiency and productivity of the Islamic banking sector. The empirical findings indicate that the De Novo foreign Islamic banks have been relatively more efficient and productive compared to their domestic and foreign Islamic bank counterparts. The results also suggest that the Malaysian Islamic banking sector has exhibited a higher level of total factor productivity during the post De Novo foreign Islamic banks’ entry period.     

金融科技、最优银行业市场结构与小微企业信贷供给

小微企业融资问题一直备受各界关注,金融科技的发展或许会带来新变化,但相关研究尚不充分。本文构建包含贷款技术和银行业市场结构的理论模型,提出金融科技、银行业市场结构与小微企业信贷供给的关系假说。在此基础上,手工收集百度搜索指数数据,建立与银行小微企业信贷业务相关的各省金融科技发展水平指数,并利用2011-2018年省级面板数据进行相应的实证检验。研究结果表明:针对整个银行业体系,金融科技有助于促进银行小微企业信贷供给;银行业市场结构与小微企业信贷供给之间呈现"倒U"型关系,即推动银行增加小微企业信贷供给时,存在最优银行业市场结构;与此同时,金融科技发展水平将影响银行业最优市场结构,金融科技发展水平越高,促进小微企业信贷供给的最优银行业竞争程度越高。本文的研究结论能够进一步丰富小微企业信贷理论,补充中国经验证据,为促进银行小微企业信贷供给提供重要启示。