AUSTRALASIAN ECONOMIC HISTORY: RESEARCH CHALLENGES AND BIG QUESTIONS

This paper reports a debate on the 'big questions' and 'research challenges' facing economic history in Australia and New Zealand. Noting the changes in research direction that occurred in the discipline over the past 50 years, and the resource challenges it currently faces, it identifies many areas of potentially fruitful research. These include the environment, market regulation and industry development, the interaction of peoples and culture, and the examination of units other than the national economy. While there is potential for exciting and diverse research, an immediate challenge is the training of the next generation of economic historians.     

Immigrant Specificity and the Relationship between Trade and Immigration: Theory and Evidence

Studies routinely document that immigrant employment concentrates in non‐traded goods sectors and that many immigrants have low inter‐sectoral mobility. We consider these observed characteristics of immigrant employment with regard to the question of how immigration affects a nation's pattern of production and trade. We model an economy producing three goods; one is non‐traded. Domestic labor and capital are domestically mobile but internationally immobile. Allowing that some new immigrants will become specific to the non‐traded goods sector, the model indicates that the effects of immigration on output and trade depend importantly on the sectoral pattern of employment of both new and existing immigrants. Empirical investigation in a panel data set of OECD countries supports the model's prediction that immigration raises the output of non‐traded goods. Consistent with the model, we also find that immigration and trade are complements. Given its empirical support, the model's implications for immigration policy are then discussed.     

A CLIOMETRIC REVOLUTION IN THE ECONOMIC HISTORY OF KOREA: A CRITICAL REVIEW

Cliometric approaches to the economic history of Korea have emerged as a distinctive trend from the mid‐1990s. They have quickly made profound changes to our understanding of Korea's economic history from 1700 to 1945. The most remarkable include identifying the long‐term decline of agricultural productivity from around 1800, the subsequent upswing in economic development from the late nineteenth century, and the continuing growth during the Japanese colonial era, 1910–45. We survey primarily the Korean language literature that reports the achievements of this cliometric movement and speculate about the future research agenda.     

BIG QUESTIONS IN AUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC HISTORY: FROM THE OUTSIDE LOOKING IN1

The conventional story of Australian economic history is worth challenging. Rather than just assuming a national economy with conventional turning points such as Federation, economic historians would do well to investigate more complex processes like the interplay between regions, races and development, and the changing patterns of interaction with the outside world. The big question for economic historians is whether in the future they can undertake economic research which informs history and so contributes to the national debate.     

The impact of mandated employment verification systems on state‐level employment by foreign affiliates

Faced with diminishing prospects for a comprehensive immigration reform at the federal level, states have started to take immigration matters into their own hands. For example, many states have been mandating the use of employment verification (E‐Verify) systems to confirm work eligibility. Some of the consequences of these E‐Verify mandates remain unclear. In this article, we focus on the effect of anti‐illegal immigrant laws on foreign investment. Specifically, we exploit the state‐level and time variation in the enactment and implementation of E‐Verify mandates to explore if punitive measures against the firm impact states' ability to attract foreign direct investment (FDI). We quantify FDI through the employment by U.S. affiliates owned by foreign firms. Our results suggest that E‐Verify mandates adversely affect employment among these majority‐owned U.S. affiliates and, therefore, work against states trying to attract FDI.     

THE SUPPLY OF ECONOMIC HISTORY IN AUSTRALASIA: THE AUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC HISTORY REVIEW AT 50

In 2010, the Australian Economic History Review published its 50th volume. To mark the occasion, we present a quantitative analysis of the output of economic and business history that has appeared in its pages since 1956, and review the development of the discipline through its journal editors. Content was until recently overwhelmingly focused on Australia and New Zealand economic and business history, despite the efforts of past editors to attract more scholarship on the wider Asia‐Pacific region. Articles on Asia and the rest of the world have become more common since the late 1990s.     

URBAN HISTORY AND THE FUTURE OF AUSTRALIAN CITIES

Urban growth is a major theme in economic development and a policy imperative for developed countries that seek to create sustainable cities. We argue that the past weighs heavily on the ability of societies to sustainably manage urban environments. The policy implications of urban history are revealed in comparisons of cities across times and between places. The special issue presents some of the best recent work on the economic and social history of Australian cities. We aim to encourage historians to incorporate urban variables into studies of historical processes and to persuade policymakers to consider historical trends in their analysis.     

THE IMPACT OF THE EU BLUE CARD POLICY ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE AFRICAN SENDING COUNTRIES

In 2009 the European Union (EU) adopted a new migration policy instrument – the Blue Cards (BC) – for attracting highly skilled workers to the EU. The present paper examines the potential impacts, which BC may cause on the less developed sending countries (LDC). According to the adopted framework of innovative capital, the BC will reduce human capital in LDC. In addition, BC will also have a negative impact on knowledge capital. These findings suggest that the BC is not coherent with the EU's development policy. Without appropriate policy responses, BC fade the developing country growth prospects away. In order to address the skill drain issues, we propose and examine alternative migration policy options for the LDC.     

MIGRATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN BRAZIL: EMPIRICAL APPLICATIONS BASED ON THE SOLOW‐SWAN MODEL

The paper addresses the question of whether migration plays a role in the determination of the per capita incomes in sub‐regions of Brazil. In order to discuss this relationship, we slightly modified the Solow‐Swan model with migration to better resemble the Brazilian context. Based on this model, we determined theoretically five different possibilities for the spatial dynamics regarding net migration, human capital differentials between migrants and nonmigrants, and capital stock per effective worker. We applied this framework to census data and the microregions in Brazil were empirically classified in one or other of these possibilities with the multivariate technique of cluster analysis. Finally, we used econometric models with instrumental variables applied to panel data and observed a tendency of increase in the variability of per capita income due to migration.     

AUSTRALIAN CAPITAL AND SOUTH-EAST ASIAN TIN MINING, 1906–40

This article examines the role of Australian capitalists in developing the tin dredging industry in South-East Asia. The capital intensive nature of the industry required substantial preparatory investment in prospecting, and the formation of many different kinds of alliances. The group that played the major role in demonstrating the viability of tin dredging was unable to make the transition to the mature stage of the industry. While others were more successful, most felt their properties were best administered by an English group. The dominant role played at the beginning of the century became quite marginal by the outbreak of World War II.     

USING AUTOBIOGRAPHIES IN BUSINESS HISTORY: A NARRATOLOGICAL ANALYSIS OF JULES JOUBERT'S SHAVINGS AND SCRAPES

Entrepreneur autobiographies provide business historians with the opportunity to connect storytelling and identity, topics that are now prominent in economic debate. Yet lingering concern about the subjectivity of life writing prevents wider use of autobiographies within business history. This article seeks to allay such concern by applying the narratological method to the colonial entrepreneur Jules Joubert's autobiography, Shavings and Scrapes. Joubert's narrative identity is as an ‘adventurer’. This identity shored up his self‐image and was used by him to enhance his reputation. Narratology shows that an autobiography can stabilise and publicise the colonial entrepreneur's narrative identity, thereby benefiting their business career.     

RELATIVE FACTOR PRICES IN THE PERIPHERY DURING THE FIRST GLOBAL CENTURY: ANY LESSONS FOR TODAY?

Globalisation before 1939 had profound effects on factor prices and income distribution, especially between the industrialising core economies and the economies of periphery. Jeffrey Williamson reflects briefly on: the impact of globalisation on relative factor price convergence; the interaction between commodity market convergence and convergence in labour and capital markets; and whether the nineteenth history of the periphery was a different history from that of the industrialising European core. Williamson concludes with observations on why the blacklash against globalisation is less severe today than it was during the first global century.     

The effects on insurance costs of restricting undocumented immigrants' access to driver licenses

Proponents of issuing driver licenses to undocumented immigrants argue that the number of uninsured motorists and car accidents would decrease, thus improving public safety and lowering costs associated with car insurance. This study gives an overview of competing cost reduction and public safety arguments and examines the issues surrounding undocumented immigrants and driver licenses. It empirically assesses the effect on the average cost of auto insurance of restricting undocumented access to legal driving documents. We use a fixed effects model for panel data to test the effects on real average insurance expenditures of restricting undocumented immigrants' access to driver licenses, while controlling for other relevant factors suggested in the literature. Our main finding is that on net such restrictions raise the average annual cost of auto insurance by an estimated $17.22 ($2009) across states that have enacted such restrictions.     

COMMODITY PRICE SHOCKS AND THE AUSTRALIAN ECONOMY SINCE FEDERATION*

Australia has experienced frequent and large commodity export price shocks similar to commodity exporters in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, but this price volatility has had much more modest impact on economic performance. Why? This paper explores Australian terms of trade volatility since 1901. It identifies two major price shock episodes before the recent mining‐led boom and bust. It assesses their relative magnitude, their impact on de‐industrialisation and distribution during the booms, and the labour market and policy responses to the shocks. Australia has indeed responded differently to volatile commodity prices than have other commodity exporters.     

COMMENTS ON FACTOR PRICES AND INCOME DISTRIBUTION IN LESS INDUSTRIALISED ECONOMIES, 1870–1939: REFOCUSING ON THE FRONTIER

A great deal of the current research into nineteenth- and twentieth-century globalisation has been focused through a neoclassical trade theory lens. Applying the Stopler-Samuelson paradigm from Heckscher-Ohlin trade theory, the result is an approach that sees price convergence as pivotal in defining, identifying, and measuring globalisation. This focus, however, obscures the implications of frontier incorporation and other insights achieved by viewing nineteenth-century globalisation as a mechanism whereby peripheral economies were incorporated into the core of organised economic activity. A frontier-centred perspective also reintroduces the role of economic institutions as a crucial element of economic growth and development.     

ECONOMIC EVALUATION OF THE PROPOSED ROAD BETWEEN GOBABIS AND GROOTFONTEIN,NAMIBIA

First, a cost‐benefit analysis is presented of reconstructing the existing road section between Gobabis and Otjinene in Namibia. Second, a cost‐benefit analysis is presented of constructing a new direct road link between Otjinene and Grootfontein, coupled with the above‐mentioned road upgrading between Gobabis and Otjinene as one project. The proposed link will shorten the existing route from Gobabis via Windhoek to Grootfontein by approximately 300 km. The following economic indicators are shown in the two cost‐benefit analyses: (i) Net Present Value, (ii) Benefit/Cost Ratio, and (iii) Internal Rate of Return. Third, the general economic impact that construction and operation of the entire road will have on non‐road users within Namibia is evaluated. This analysis is divided into two parts: The first part deals with the once‐off income‐multiplier effect triggered by the initial investment in the road, while the second part addresses the recurring income accelerator effect that usage of the road is expected to have within Namibia.     

The Impact of Brain Drain on Human Capital in Developing Countries

The debate over the effect of human capital flight on educational attainment in immigrants' source countries has received huge theoretical propositions but a few analytical approaches. This paper examines the short‐run and long‐run impact of skilled migration rates (brain drain) on human capital formation in migrants' source developing countries. Specifically, we revisited some empirical studies that found evidence of beneficial brain drain in migrants' source countries. Our empirical result, using school enrolments does not only disagree with theirs but also presents an insight on how human capital leakages that occur through brain drain can be counterbalanced through remittances received in the immigrants' source countries.     

Seasonal Migration and Microcredit During Agricultural Lean Seasons: Evidence from Northwest Bangladesh

This paper investigates the interlinkage between microcredit and temporary seasonal migration, an issue which has been given little attention in the standard rural–urban migration literature. Seasonal migration due to agricultural downturns is a common phenomenon in developing countries. Using primary data from a cross‐sectional household survey of the northwest part of Bangladesh, this paper quantifies the factors that influence such migration decisions. Our results suggest that people with prior access to microcredit are more likely to migrate during an agricultural lean season. Furthermore, we find evidence of a negative selection effect between microcredit and seasonal migration, conditional on an individual's village of residence and observed characteristics. Our results have numerous potential policy implications, including the design of typical microcredit schemes for developing countries.     

Migration constraints and development: Hukou and capital accumulation in China

Rural–urban migration flows are a crucial corollary of economic development. The adverse or beneficial effects of internal migration, for sending as well as receiving areas, and the definition of optimal migration policies, have remained much discussed issues since the seminal works of Harris and Todaro (1970). This debate is especially acute in China where the “household registration system” (hukou) acts as a strong constraint on individual migration. This paper aims to assess the consequences of hukou through a simple model of a developing dual economy with overlapping generations. Contrary to existing studies focused on the contemporaneous allocation of economic resources, it deals with the dynamic consequences of migration flows and migration policies. It shows that, in fairly general circumstances, hukou-related migration constraints can actually hasten development, understood as the transfer of the labor force to the modern sector, driven by capital accumulation. The hukou system could thus be one of the causes of the extremely high Chinese saving rate and of the high pace of Chinese development. Insights from the model are confronted with stylized facts from the Chinese development, and theoretical results are especially consistent with the effects of the 2001 “towns and small cities” reform.