安全利益与经济发展:朝鲜的困境与出路

安全问题既影响了朝鲜有限资源的配置,也影响了朝鲜经济发展所需要的外部环境.为解决这一困境,朝鲜希望通过朝鲜核问题来推动问题的解决.从目前朝鲜经济政策调整的趋势和朝鲜核问题发展的进程来看,朝鲜应该是在寻找一条能够推动经济发展,渐进的适合朝鲜国情的改革发展道路.     

投资朝鲜,请注意!

过去的2012年,一度被称为投资朝鲜最好时机的开始. 2012年10月11日下午,位于北京北苑东路山水蓝维27号楼的朝鲜投资事务所门前,朝鲜派驻中国负责投资事务的最高领导人、朝鲜合营投资委员会副委员长金铁镇从旁边的高丽官与若干中国商界人士走出来,一一握手送别. 记者在长达一个月的采访中明显地发现,朝鲜官员在与中方人士打交道时十分客气.也许,这是以某种姿态来消除之前有民营企业家在朝鲜投资不"如意"的影响.     

朝核危机新形势下的美国东北亚同盟体系

2016年1月6日,朝鲜进行了第四次核试验,宣称氢弹试验成功,2月7日,朝鲜发射“光明星四号”卫星,6月22日,朝鲜发射两枚“舞水端”导弹.朝鲜的一系列举动将朝鲜半岛的紧张局势推到新的高度,对此美韩日三国加紧强化美韩、美日同盟体系,加强军事合作以应对朝鲜的核威慑.朝核危机新形势下,美国东北亚同盟体系进行了调整和巩固,这不利于朝核危机的化解和半岛局势的稳定.     

赴朝投资要先做哪些功课?

浙江朝翔进出口有限公司总裁崔东元在朝鲜做投资,已经将近20年.他卖过铁矿石,收过废旧纸箱,后来还投资过软件开发.最近,他和他的朋友们还在朝鲜争取到了平板电脑的独占权.说起自己在朝鲜投资的优势,崔东元认为,首先是语言,其次是多年的投资经验.     

基督教在近代东北地区朝鲜族中的传播及影响

本文以基督教在近代东北朝鲜族社会的传播及其影响为中心,研究基督教传入东北朝鲜社会的背景及其过程、当时的东北朝鲜社会及其基督教情况以及分析反日人士组织、利用基督教团体进行抗日革命斗争的基本情况.     

摒弃冷战时期的思维方式

中国不谋求自己的势力范围,中国继续奉行不干涉别国内政的原则.但是,中国是联合国安理会常任理事国,在维护联合国宪章方面负有特殊的责任.对于东北亚地区出现的紧张局势,中国不能袖手旁观. 一些人之所以在朝鲜问题上判断失误,根本原因就在于他们意识形态挂帅,仍然秉承冷战时期的思维方式,试图把朝鲜作为一个战略"棋子",以朝鲜阻挡美国军队.这是一种极不负责任的态度.     

朝鲜与国际社会作对没有出路

朝鲜不顾国际社会的普遍反对,悍然于12日进行了第三次核试验,在国际上引起轩然大波. 各国纷纷发表讲话和声明坚决谴责,联合国秘书长潘基文也表示强烈反对.中国外交部立即发表声明表示,坚决反对朝鲜再次进行核试验,强调实现朝鲜半岛无核化、防止核扩散、维护东北亚和平与稳定,是中方的坚定立场,敦促朝鲜信守无核化承诺,不再采取可能恶化局势的行动.     

南朝鲜的慢性通货膨胀及其后果——经验和教训

一、三十五年来的物价变动 (一) 战后初期(1948—1961年) 战后初期,南朝鲜面临的最迫切任务是平定粮价问题。1948年4月末的粮价是每斗米1,320元(南朝鲜元,下同),到同年8月末,米价暴涨到2,600元。此后粮价一直处于暴涨暴落状态。1948年美国向南朝鲜提供1.8亿美元和1949年1.2亿美元援助,为南朝鲜提供了控制通货膨胀所必需的物资,并为生产能力扩大和物价的全面稳定打下基础.1950年3月,当局提出实行“稳定经济15项原则”的控制通货膨胀措施,由于朝鲜战争爆发而告落空。     

朝鲜经济发展趋势分析

朝鲜经济的发展对于朝核问题的解决,对于维护东北亚安全和推动东北亚区域国际经济合作具有重要意义。朝鲜从20世纪90年代末期开始逐步迈开了经济调整的步伐,2007年是朝鲜"建设经济强国的转折之年",朝鲜经济发展虽然还面临着严峻的困难和挑战,但同时也存在着推动经济发展的有利因素。随着朝鲜对经济的调整改善,朝鲜经济逐步展露出发展的良好势头。只要朝鲜能够有效解决困扰经济发展的问题,朝鲜经济应该能够获得较好的发展。     

多重背景下的中朝关系透视

朝鲜与中国山水相连,有着1300多公里的陆地边界线,对中国安全和对外战略来说具有重要的意义.同为社会主义国家的朝鲜,其特殊的地理位置及其与中国的关系值得我们密切关注.而理清中朝关系的历史发展,透过现象掌握两国关系发展的本质,对我们正确认识中朝关系说很有必要的.     

苏北开放型经济的后发优势与发展对策探析

加快苏北开放型经济发展是振兴苏北必由之路。本文分析了苏北开放型经济发展现状与差距,剖析了苏北开放型经济发展滞后的原因,提出了发挥后发优势是推进苏北开放型经济发展的重要途径。     

海外资产和日本经济的转型

2011年日本的国际收支出现历史性转变,贸易收支和服务收支均为赤字,所得收支成为经常收支盈余的主体。日本海外资产规模已经与其国内生产总值不相上下,海外净资产连续22年据世界首位。日本经济正经历着从"贸易立国"向"投资立国"的战略转型。日本海外资产增速快,净资产多,但是结构不合理。同欧美"枢纽式"海外资产结构相比,"单行道"式的海外资产结构表明日本经济与世界经济融合度还不高、国内创新能力不足。内外经济环境变化、企业行为变化和政府政策从不同角度推动着日本经济的转型,但存在许多不确定的因素。     

The effect of North Korean threats on financial markets in South Korea and Japan

This paper examines the effects of North Korean threats, as measured by the proprietary North Korean Threat Index (NKTI), on financial markets in South Korea and Japan. We examine the effects of the threats on stock markets, foreign exchange markets, and overnight interest rates. We consider causality in mean and variance tests to determine any link between the NKTI and financial variables. The causality-in-mean test results indicate the presence of a causal link running from North Korean threats to stock returns and exchange rate returns in both countries, but no significant link to the overnight interest rate in either country. The causality-in-variance test results indicate no significant impact emanating from North Korean threats. Integrating the North Korean economy into the global economy stands to eliminate these threats and thus to contribute to regional financial stability.     

The North Korean economy seen by satellite: Estimates of national performance,regional gaps based on nighttime light

External estimates must be used to assess North Korea’s economy because Pyongyang authorities withhold economic statistics. The Bank of Korea’s figures are considered the most widely employed estimates. However, they have several limitations. This paper estimates North Korea’s economic growth over a more than 20-year period, by analyzing the nighttime lighting, as recorded by orbiting satellites. The data is more objective and reliable than other data used to evaluate the North Korean economy. It indicates steady growth after 2000, contradicting Bank of Korea estimates. The methodology also has the advantage of being able to gauge regional economic activity. Performance varied widely among regions, the result of internal factors such as market activities and external factors such as trade with China and economic cooperation with South Korea.     

中国经济韧性的南北差异及形成机理

文章运用熵权TOPSIS法测度1997-2020年中国经济韧性综合指数及分维度指数,借助Dagum基尼系数分解探究南北方经济韧性的区域差异以及差异来源,运用二次指派程序实证考察经济韧性南北区域差异的形成机理。研究发现:(1)经济韧性总体水平虽不高但呈现波动中缓慢增长趋势,结构韧性和创新韧性指数低于经济韧性综合指数,是经济韧性提高的短板;南方地区经济韧性综合指数、规模韧性指数、结构韧性指数、创新韧性指数、开放韧性指数均高于北方地区,而制度韧性指数和社会韧性指数均低于北方地区。(2)经济韧性综合指数空间差异整体呈缩小趋势;区域间差异是经济韧性空间差异的主要来源。(3)创新韧性差异和开放韧性差异是南方地区经济韧性差异形成的主要原因;结构韧性差异和制度韧性差异是北方地区经济韧性差异形成的主要原因;创新韧性差异、规模韧性差异以及开放韧性差异对经济韧性差异的作用强度由北向南增强,而结构韧性差异、社会韧性差异和制度韧性差异对经济韧性差异的作用强度由北向南减弱。研究创新:基于规模韧性、结构韧性、创新韧性、开放韧性、制度韧性和社会韧性六大维度构建经济韧性综合评价指标体系,并对其空间差异及形成机理进行探讨分析。文章丰富了经济韧性评价体系的构建,为揭示我国经济韧性南北的区域差异现状、探索协同发展路径提供重要借鉴。     

共同应对世界经济发展不平衡

世界经济发展不平衡已成为全球普遍关注的一个问题,其最根本的表现就是“南北”差距在继续扩大,全世界的社会财富进一步向少数人集中。出现这种现象是世界经济一体化的必然结果,惟一的出路就是大家携起手来,共同面对现存的问题。     

Do remittances moderate financial development–informality nexus in North Africa?

The prevalent informality and sheer size of international remittances characterize the North African countries. This study primarily aims at investigating how remittances moderate the effects of financial development on the informal economy in North African countries. Employing pool mean group (PMG)/panel ARDL approach and a balanced panel data set over the period 1980–2015, we find that remittances moderate the negative relationship between financial development and informal economy. This finding suggests that remittances bolster financial development, which, in turn, decreases the informal economy. Based on this result, we recommend that tailored policies and interventions are needed to promote financial development and international remittances in the North African region.     

Changing nature of North–South linkages: Stylized facts and explanations

This paper examines the changing nature of growth spillovers between developed economies, the North, and developing countries, the South, driven by the process of globalization—the phenomenon of rising international trade and financial flows. We use a comprehensive database of macroeconomic and sectoral variables for 106 countries over the period 1960–2005. We consider the South to be composed of two groups of countries, the Emerging South and the Developing South, based on the extent of their integration into the global economy. Using a panel regression framework, we find that the impact of the Northern economic activity on the Emerging South has declined during the globalization period (1986–2005). In contrast, the growth linkages between the North and Developing South have been rather stable over time. Our findings also suggest that the North and Emerging South economies have started to exhibit more intensive intra-group growth spillovers.     

Clintonomics: The first year

This paper reviews the Clinton economic program's first year. It begins by identifying three distinguishing features of the Clinton approach: 1) The belief that government should be more involved in the economy; 2) A concern about the distribution of resources in society; and, 3) A belief that the recent large budget deficits do represent an important economic problem. It then considers the three main economic issues of the Clinton administration's first year—the 1993 budget package, the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), and health care reform—in terms of these three features. The paper's overall conclusion is that the Clinton administration has made a considerable effort at achieving economic progress during its initial year, but that, particularly as health care reform progresses, more attention needs to be paid to economic principles.     

Australian Labour Market Institutions Through Time: A Perspective from the New Institutional Economics

One of the distinguishing characteristics of the Australian economy over most of the past century has been its labour market institutions and organizations. Recently these institutions have changed to become more decentralized. Douglas North has argued that examining and explaining institutional change through time is an important and comparatively unresearched topic facing economic historians. In this paper, changes to Australia's labour market institutions are examined from the perspective of the New Institutional Economics. Following North, it is argued that further research should be directed to identifying the role ideological beliefs have played in shaping Australia's labour market institutions over time.