The terms of trade between the public and private sector

Summary Budgetary policy mostly deals with the short run, during which period technology and factor endowments change only slightly. In the longer run, however, the capital-labour ratio may rise systematically and the productivity of the resources may increase due to technical progress. Consequently prices and outputs change and the real wage rate will increase. As public services are labour-intensive the relative price of public expenditure will also be leveled up. If, furthermore, the volume of public expenditure grows at the same rate as the national income, an increase of the, relative size of the public sector becomes unavoidable.     

治理公款吃喝的法律思考

一段时间以来,国家工作人员运用公款大吃大喝的行为十分严重。这种行为具有严重的社会危害性,应当采取措施遏制其蔓延。治理公款吃喝行为不仅需要加强党员干部的思想教育,道德教育,还应当以建设社会主义法治国家为指导思想,通过立法将不合理的公款吃喝行为根据其情节确认为违法和犯罪,并规定相应的法律处罚措施,使公款吃喝受到法律的规范和控制。     

China's Emergence: Prospects,Opportunities and Challenges

Barring major disruptions, China will become the world's most dynamic growth pole, and could become one of the world's largest economies, if not the largest, by the year 2020. Industrial countries, especially Japan and the United States, are expected to benefit, while many developing countries may be put under competitive pressure. A simulation analysis shows that in the long run China will be resilient to adverse external developments, but in the short term, a shock such as loss of most favoured nation status in the US market could threaten the macroeconomic stability so important to its continued economic opening. Preserving open trade relations is in the best interest of both China and the United States.     

大庆、鸡西和伊春产业转型模式比较研究

资源型城市产业转型是必然趋势。在选择产业转型模式时应该考虑资源型城市的资源特点、区位特点和开采周期等条件。大庆在短期可采用产业链延伸模式,而长期则可采用替代产业模式;鸡西在短期可以采用混合模式,长期则可采用替代产业模式;伊春在短期可以采用替代产业模式,长期则可采用混合模式。     

公共教育投资与延长人口红利——基于人力资本动态投入产出模型和SAM的预测

本文利用SAM和动态投入产出模型预测了通过提高公共教育投资以延长人口红利的可行性。假定政府扩张教育投入至GDP4.5%,施行高中义务教育,虽然在短期内由于挤占经济建设投资,会导致经济增速下降,但其长期效应包括：使高中和研究生学历人力资源迅速扩张,显著提升现代制造、科教、服务业的生产率,为产业结构升级打下基础;居民和企业相对收入提高,有利于经济增长模式转变;GDP增长率将随着人力资本的积累而回升,增长在人口红利拐点后得以延续。     

Monetary Policy Impulses and Retail Interest Rate Pass‐Through in Asian Banking Markets

This paper considers the integration of financial markets and mutual influences of monetary policies in the USA and Asia based on monthly data from 1994 to 2007. We used panel‐type and time‐series and quantile panel‐type error correction models to test the influences of expected and unexpected monetary policy impulses on the interest rate pass‐through mechanism in the financial markets of 9 Asian countries and the USA. The empirics show that if interest rate integration exists in the financial markets, the following effects are observed: (i) positive impulses of unexpected monetary policy will lead to an increase in the long‐run multiplier of the retail interest rate; (ii) the adjustment of retail interest rates with short‐run disequilibrium will lead to an increase in the long‐run markup; and (iii) the empirical results of quantile regression prove that when the interest variation is greater than the 0.5th quantile and unexpected monetary policy impulses are greater than the expected monetary policy impulses, the short‐run interest rate pass‐through mechanism becomes more unstable.     

Generational Accounts for the Dutch Public Sector*

After 2010 the aging of the population will start to form a sizable burden on public finances. On the other hand, some shifts in the private sector, such as the increase of labour participation, are expected to generate higher tax revenues. These contrasting developments raise the question whether the present system of public arrangements is sustainable in the long run or will, on balance, result in an unfavourable treatment of future generations. This paper, which assigns net public sector benefits to generations, indicates that the present arrangements are unsustainable when indexed to productivity growth. However, the required policy adjustment can be considered small. Because the alleviating factors will occur before the sizeable effects of aging set in, implementing a sustainable system implies a sharp reduction of the budget deficit in the coming decades. The paper uses, and in some ways extends, the standard Generational Accounting methodology as developed by Auerbach, Gokhale, and Kotlikoff.     

不动产征收之公共利益界定模式选择

将公共利益作为不动产征收的正当性基础,是当今世界各国征收制度的通行做法。公共利益是满足平衡财产权保护与公共福利需要而生,应是一种普遍正当利益的制度化,即是一种谁都能感受到的,谁都能理解到的非常现实、极为实际的利益。制度化形态下公共利益的应由立法机关来认定,立法模式上应当是由列举式、排除式与最小适用条款所构成。     

How does the US credit crisis affect the Asia–Pacific economies?—Analysis based on a general equilibrium model

The current financial crisis differs from most post-war recessions in that the balance sheets of both households and banks have been severely damaged, which could lead to structural changes in the behavior of households. Therefore, it may exert some far-reaching effects on regional economies in the short run as well as in the medium term. This paper studies these effects using a multi-country dynamic structural model. In the short run, the US credit crisis weighs heavily upon the Asia–Pacific economies through financial linkages in addition to the traditional trade channel due to the deepening global financial integration. The relative importance of various financial channels differs notably across economies. While stock market contagion is more important for advanced economies, flight to quality across borders plays a key role in less developed economies. From a medium-term perspective, changes in the US household behavior caused by the credit crisis can help correct global imbalances, but the effectiveness hinges largely upon how long US households can maintain a reasonably higher savings rate. In addition, although the declining American public savings rate may not exert material impacts on the global imbalances, it can darken regional growth prospects due to a potentially higher world real interest rate.     

High interest rates: a new conventional wisdom for development policy? some conclusions from Sri Lankan experience

The paper is concerned with the general proposition that ‘high’ interest rates paid to savers can contribute significantly to the long run development of LDCs, as well as to stabilization of their economies in the short run. By relating this general proposition to some simple theory about the behaviour of imperfect financial markets, as well as to specific institutional circumstances in Sri Lanka, it is demonstrated that there are important qualifications that have to be borne in mind. In particular, in the current institutional circumstances of Sri Lanka (which are closely replicated in other LDCs), the instinctive argument of the neoclassical economist that interest rates should reflect the scarcity price of capital is not a great deal of help to policy-makers.     

重构与地方事权和支出责任相匹配的地方收入体系

近年来"营改增"等税制改革使地方收入体系的重构迫在眉睫。目前的地方收入体系存在着中央与地方政府间收入划分不合理、政府间转移支付有待完善、省以下地方收入体系不健全等问题。重构地方收入体系要基于处理好政府与市场、中央与地方、公权与公民三方面的关系,既要关注过渡期地方财政收入的稳定性,又要明确改革的长远目标是要重构与地方事权和支出责任相匹配的地方收入体系。     

Trade Opening,Fiscal Reforms,Poverty, and Inequality: A CGE Analysis for Bangladesh

We assess the short‐ and long‐run impacts of tariff reform policies on Bangladeshi households' poverty and income distribution by developing an 86‐sector, four‐factor, and nine‐household‐group computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The main findings are that the complete removal of tariffs leads to a decrease in overall poverty with rich household groups in a relatively better position. In the short run poverty incidence increases for rural landless, urban illiterate, and low‐educated household groups whereas rural large farmer and urban medium household groups enjoy improvements in all poverty indicators. In terms of income distribution, trade liberalization enhances inequality slightly, but there is a tendency towards more equitable distribution in the long run. The choice of a fiscal compensatory mechanism with consumption tax is likely to play a negative role in terms of poverty and inequality in the short run; however, interestingly, the results are pro‐poor in the long run.     

论创业板上市公司财务报表的改进

创业板市场主要为高科技企业和高成长性的中小企业而设立。这些企业的共同特点是研发费用非常高 ,而且在公司中起着举足轻重的作用。销记法处理容易引起使用者的误解 ,而且容易导致管理层的短期行为。但若当项目通过技术可行性测试后 ,将费用资本化 ,并暂以非核心资产反映 ,则     

Are Financial Development and Trade Openness Complements or Substitutes?

This article studies the long‐ and short‐run relationships between financial development and trade openness. Using the pooled mean group estimator of Pesaran, Shin, and Smith (1999) for unbalanced panel data for 87 countries over the 1960–2005 period, our empirical results indicate that long‐run complementarity between financial development and trade openness coexists with short‐run substitutionarity between the two policy variables. But when splitting the data into OECD and non‐OECD country groups, this finding can be observed only in non‐OECD countries. For OECD countries, financial development has negligible effects on trade. In addition, we find nonlinearity in the relationship in that long‐run responses of trade decrease with financial development. The article further finds coexistence of negative trade effects of financial fragility and positive trade impacts of financial depth.     

固定利率住房抵押贷款对我国商业银行利率风险的影响

我国利率市场化改革正在稳步地向前推进,利率风险在商业银行经营和管理中的重要性正在、并且将会不断凸现。目前,我国商业银行的利率敏感性资产小于利率敏感性负债,重新定价缺口为负缺口,固定利率住房抵押贷款的推出使重新定价负缺口有进一步扩大的趋势。本文从边际的角度分析了固定利率住房抵押贷款对我国商业银行利率风险的影响。由于目标间的冲突,文章的结尾指出我国商业银行有实现战略转型,由目前短期内净利息收入最大化实现向股东权益价值最大化转变,同时兼顾监管时期内资本金条件约束的现实必要性与迫切性。     

保障失地农民权益的政策建议

城市化进程中,失地农民权益保障还存在一些问题,如失地农民没有得到土地市场化的增值收益、就业难及社会保障体系不健全等.原因有土地管理和征收制度存在缺陷,城市化与工业化发展不协调,城乡二元经济结构等.要从根本上解决失地农民的权益保障问题,必须让失地农民参与分享土地市场化的增值性收益,建立有效的就业保障机制和完善的社会保障体系,让失地农民分享城乡之间均等的公共产品供给,实现城乡兼顾的包容性增长.     

INFLATION TARGETING AND THE FISHER EFFECT IN SOUTH AFRICA: AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION

The paper analyses the relationship between expected inflation and nominal interest rates during a period of inflation targeting in South Africa, i.e. from 2000 to 2005. Specifically, it investigates the Fisher hypothesis that nominal interest rates move one‐to‐one with expected inflation, leaving the real interest rate unaffected. The analysis distinguishes between a short‐run Fisher effect and a long‐run Fisher effect. Using cointegration and error correction models (for monthly data for the period April 2000 to July 2005), it was found that the short‐run Fisher hypothesis did not hold during the relevant period under the inflation targeting monetary policy framework in South Africa. This is attributed to a combination of the South African Reserve Bank's (SARB) control over short‐term interest rates and the effects of the monetary transmission mechanism. The long‐run Fisher hypothesis could not be confirmed in its strictest form: while changes in inflation expectations move in the same direction as the nominal long‐term interest rate. This suggests that monetary policy has an influence on the real long‐term interest rate, which has positive implications for general economic activity, thus confirming the credibility of the inflation targeting framework.     

美国国债危机的根源及出路

虽然美国债务危机还没有爆发,但目前的财政赤字和国债规模过大、财政收支结构的刚性特征均阻碍了其财政赤字状况的改善、美元的国际货币地位也非可以永久持续,这使美国国债的可持续性问题面临挑战。在解决方案上,短期内美国政府可以通过技术性违约或者债务货币化将政府债务延后或者隐性处理,但是其代价是巨大的。因此美国应当从中长期根本上解决债务问题,中期需要建立严格的财政制度;长期上则需要协调好各个产业的发展,寻找新的经济增长点。     

西藏农村公共服务的提供和贫困的减少(英文)

I. IntroductionThrough observing the basic public services that the farmers and herdsmen have obtained,this paper is devoted to an evaluation of the efforts made by the local government for thealleviation of poverty in rural Tibet. Firstly, the role of the agricultural support system inrealizing food security will be identified. Secondly, the public services that could directlyimprove the household welfare of farmers and herdsmen will be examined. Finally, we willexplore the possibilities for…     

后税费时代乡镇政府职能转变问题研究

乡镇作为我国的基层政府，在农村税费改革后许多职能虚化，从长期来看，乡镇政府可以取消；短期而言，我国农村地广人多，乡镇政府暂应保留以保持地方稳定，但其职能应进行转变。税费改革后，基层政府职能转变就是要强化基层政府的公共服务职能，增加农村公共品的供给；弱化行政管理职能，淡化基层政府的行政色彩。