父子集(22)——王青石文章 王松奇书法 人类与宇宙

正据NASA报告,2013年5月31日,一颗直径1.7英里的小行星与地球擦肩而过。若击中地球,产生的撞击很可能会带来毁灭性的影响,包括地壳破裂,频繁地震,火山喷发,烟尘铺天盖地,苍生不见天日,物种成批灭绝。还好,仅仅是擦肩而过。但是,就这么轻描淡写转瞬即逝的一擦肩,对人类何尝不是一个提醒?虽然人类拥有光辉的历史与先进的科技,但宇宙无垠,地球不过是荒漠的一粒沙,在万丈的黑暗中沿轨迹飘动,于疾行的星雨里凭机遇存亡。璀璨银河,我们人类可有可无,兴许轻轻的一阵太阳风,世界各地几千年的文化,每个灯火通明的城乡,所有纠结于爱恨中的男女,都会顷刻间化     

财会战士

每天和同事一样进入办公楼,但是,你们的工作却是特殊的,你们是财经战线的一员。数字,大写的、小写的、无休无止的数字,就像密密麻麻的蚁群,布满了时间和空间。你们,仿佛懂得了昆虫语言的神灵,将铺天盖地的蚁群排列组合,     

网民部落化生存

物以类聚,人以群分,网民各自有着属于他们这个群体的人生.互联网时代,网民作为网络共和国的公民,他们的人生,是部落化族群的统一内核.在族群里,有一个阶层的集体诠释,有一段年龄的共同呼唤,也有一种心态的无声共鸣.不言而喻,它们有错开,有交融,相映生辉,且能在部落空间里有向抑或无向的漂移.     

真情真心真爱——太平人寿北京分公司客服活动侧记

中秋月圆夜,北京,国家图书馆嘉言堂。暮色下的剧场散发着浓浓的节日气氛,门口是喜气洋洋的红灯笼,迎面走来的是笑容可掬的职场丽人,随处听到的是热情的问候和开怀的笑声。剧场里,白发苍苍的老者慈祥微笑,顽皮可爱的幼童欢娱跳跃,情侣在低声细语,老朋友正愉快地交谈。     

妙语连珠

欲成大器,先要大气。大气之人,语气不惊不惧,性格不骄不躁,气势不张不扬,举止不猥不琐,静得优雅,动得从容,行得洒脱。大气之人,如一朵花,花香淡雅而悠长;如一棵树,枝叶茂盛而常青。大气之人,能安安心心做好本分的角色,认认真真干好手头的事情,不为名利而争斗,不为钱财而纠葛。做一个生命的行者,享受幸福：,幸福,其实很简单。平静的哥吸,仔细的聆听,微笑着生活;有人爱,有事做,有所期待;不慌乱,不迷茫,无悔人生、幸福,其实在路上。走一步,有一步的风景;进一步,有一步的欣喜;退一步,有一步的心境。     

初春的心动(散文)

春的讯息是我一抬头猛然在树间枝杈窥到的。那枝芽似乎蘸着一抹鹅黄,淡淡的,疏疏的,影影绰绰的,忽隐忽现着,真是翠色遥看近却无,而我是那么敏感地就捕捉到了它。一刹那,有种难以抑制的激动如闪电般穿过我的全身,渗入我的肌体,仿佛有人施了魔法般,我失去了感觉,失去了听觉,就那么定定地看着它,心却早已属于它。于是,我感到那曾很是刺骨的风忽然间温柔起来。它从身边掠过,尽管还有些冷,却冷得舒服,有种无比的奇妙,熨贴着心。那枝头的鹅黄是它绽开的     

留学一年有感

俄勒冈的夏天渐渐走来,距离回国,还有25天。我望着湛蓝的天空,回想着异乡留学生活的第一年。曾经的我,戴的还是圆圆的小眼镜,从不敢相信自己会离开父母,独自一个人在遥远的外地生活。别人家的孩子大都清早起床,自己骑车上学,我却要保姆背着我的书包,护送着穿过马路送到学校去。很多年过去了,我在大洋彼岸一个素不相识的饱受金融危机影响的美国人家里熬过了大半年,寄人篱下的生活让我尝到了委屈,尝到     

好的画,通常都有气味

你知道,梵高在阿尔勒的画,几乎都有麦田的气味,看着看着,好像把一束麦穗放在齿间咀嚼,麦粒上还带着夏天的日光曝晒过的气味。有些画是没有气味的,画海没有海的气味,画花没有花的气味,徒具形式,很难有深刻的印象。我觉得,元朝的王蒙,他的画里就有牛毛的气味。有一次,在上海美术馆看他的《青卞隐居图》,我闭着眼睛,那些停留在视觉上的毛茸茸、卷曲躁动的细线,忽然变成     

荷塘夏韵

我站在荷塘边,欣赏荷花美景。抬头望去,一潭绿水倒映着远山的倩影,像一幅隽永的山水画。静水那边,由近而远,一片迷人的荷花盛开了。在晨光的照射下,一株株高高低低的花箭,升起一只只含苞欲放的花蕾,充满生机勃勃的生命气息。这些粉红色的小精灵,经过严冬的煎熬,春日的孕育,才将绷得很紧的花骨朵悄悄张开。荷花散发清香,梦想,张开翅膀,在荷塘之上划出一道道优美的弧线。翅,在一静立的花蕾上停留,姿态优雅。我架起相机,成为蜻蜒的爱物,一只只飞来飞去的蜻蜒,带着荷花的这时,一只不知从哪里飞来的蜻蜒,踮着细脚,轻展双目光透过长焦镜头,把这至美的景色永远定格。自古以     

保本基金的择新之道

春节过后,A股市场延续反弹走势.尽管震荡行情持续,但不少业内人士认为,在投资者悲观情绪回暖,人民币汇率稳定及宽松货币政策的延续的背景下,市场处于恢复性反弹阶段,但上行空间较小,上行节奏相对缓慢. 数据显示,截至3月11日的1周内,新成立基金共计18只,较此前1周增加9只,为2011年周峰值的40％,新基金募资规模共219.77亿元,为2011年以来周峰值的16％,成立速度回升到2015年12月的状态.整体来看,投资者的购基热情处于回升状态,但尚在恢复的过程中.     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…     

银行管理信息平台建设发展的思考

一、目前国内银行IT发展现状及面临的问题 银行数据集中工作的完成,标志着银行的业务由电子化建设阶段转入信息化建设阶段.一方面银行数据的集中提供了丰富全面的基础数据,面对日益庞大的数据源,如何将数字转化为对银行有用的信息,并从中发现知识,为银行的经营决策提供支持,是摆在银行IT人员面前的一个亟待解决的问题.另一方面用户对银行信息的需求日益增长,如果银行没有一套完整、实用的信息管理系统,将对业务发展非常不利.南京爱立信公司倒戈花旗银行事件曾经轰动一时,其中一个重要原因就是中国本地银行不能满足爱立信全球总部对南京爱立信公司的要求:每周财务上报和每天贷款限额管理.这一事件为中国商业银行的未来发展敲响了警钟,如果不加快管理信息系统的开发,迅速提升业务管理水平,类似的事件还会接连不断地发生,并最终导致国内商业银行在同国外商业银行的竞争中全面溃败.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.