Mispricing and the cross-section of stock returns

This paper employs the Campbell-Shiller (Rev Financ Stud 1:195–228, 1988) VAR model to derive a model-based mispricing measure that captures investor overreaction to growth. Using this mispricing measure, we find that stocks with low levels of mispricing outperform otherwise similar stocks. The long–short mispricing strategy generates statistically and economically significant returns over the sample period of July 1981 to June 2006. Moreover, this mispricing strategy outperforms the contrarian strategy using various accounting-fundamental-to-price ratios. Our results cast doubt on the risk story in explaining the abnormal returns of the mispricing strategy. Rather, our evidence suggests that asset prices reflect both covariance risk and mispricing.

Investor Sophistication and the Mispricing of Accruals

This paper examines the role of institutional investors in the pricing of accruals. Using Bushee;s (1998) classification of institutional investors, we show that firms with a high level of institutional ownership and a minimum threshold level of active institutional traders have stock prices that more accurately reflect the persistence of accruals. This result holds after controlling for differences in the persistence of accruals between firms with high and low institutional ownership, and after controlling for other characteristics that are correlated with institutional ownership and future returns. Additionally, firms with low institutional ownership are smaller, less profitable, and have lower share turnover, suggesting that limits to arbitrage impede institutional investors from exploiting the seemingly large abnormal returns for these firms.     

The Predictive Power of the Term Structure during Recent Monetary Regimes

I use weekly Treasury-bill rates with maturities of one to twenty-six weeks to examine the information in forward rates during the 1970s and 1980s. Forward rates contain better information about future changes in spot rates than the information captured by autoregressivea nd vector-autoregressivem odels. Forward rates also have considerable predictive power, which increased after October 1979 and remained strong after October 1982. The results show no necessary connection between interest rate predictability and the degree to which the Fed adheres to interest rate targeting.     

超募融资、管理层权力与私有收益——基于IPO市场的经验证据

超募融资是关系到资本市场资源配置效率的重要问题,一直受到社会公众和监管部门的深切关注。以我国IPO超募融资为背景,结合管理层权力理论,本文探讨了IPO超募对高管私有收益的影响。以2006-2011年上市公司为样本,本文研究发现:(1)整体上,超募融资的上市公司其高管获得更高的货币性和非货币性私有收益;(2)区分产权性质,这一现象在国有企业和非国有企业中均显著存在;(3)结合管理层权力分析,管理层权力的增大有助于高管获取高额的货币性和非货币性私有收益,但这一关系主要存在于非国有企业;(4)市场对超募公司为高管发放超额货币性私有收益的行为,给予了负面的反应,而对于发放超额非货币性私有收益的行为没有显著反应。本文的发现拓展了超募融资、管理层权力经济后果的相关研究,并为超募融资效率的监管提供了一定的启示。     

IPO回暖

2011年,由于全球资本市场波动,以及若干欧洲国家发生主权债务危机,中国企业在全球的首次公开募股(IPO)受到影响。2011年前两季度IPO活动还十分频繁,但从年中开始,却大幅减少。根据《安永     

Pricing and Mispricing Effects of SFAS 131

Abstract:  We investigate the effects of the introduction of Statement of Financial Accounting Standards No. 131 (SFAS 131) on the market's valuation of foreign earnings. Thomas (1999) documents that investors discount the value of foreign earnings for US multinational companies. He conjectures but does not test the possibility that this finding is due to poor disclosure related to foreign operations. We find strong evidence that the introduction of the standard is positively associated with the pricing of foreign earnings. In addition, we use both the Mishkin (1983) test and a zero-investment hedge portfolio test and find that investors' mispricing of foreign earnings lessens (and in fact disappears) after SFAS 131. This study is one of the first attempts to show that improved disclosure reduces mispricing.     

IPO重启前后影响其抑价率相关因素的比较分析

文章对全流通体制下IPO重启前后影响其抑价水平的相关因素分别进行了回归分析,其研究结论表明,IPO重启后新股抑价状况得到显著改善,并且IPO重启前后影响其抑价率的相关因素有明显不同,市场行情的转变和相关制度的修订在影响IPO押价因素的变化过程中可能发挥了重要作用.     

The Predictive Power of Anisotropic Spatial Correlation Modeling in Housing Prices

This paper develops a method to capture anisotropic spatial autocorrelation in the context of the simultaneous autoregressive model. Standard isotropic models assume that spatial correlation is a homogeneous function of distance. This assumption, however, is oversimplified if spatial dependence changes with direction. We thus propose a local anisotropic approach based on non-linear scale-space image processing. We illustrate the methodology by using data on single-family house transactions in Lucas County, Ohio. The empirical results suggest that the anisotropic modeling technique can reduce both in-sample and out-of-sample forecast errors. Moreover, it can easily be applied to other spatial econometric functional and kernel forms.     

阿里巴巴：上市天梯

先是赴港上市两次被拒,后又踌躇是赴美上市还是继续游说香港证券交易所,直到2014年3月16日阿里巴巴最终选择赴美IPO。这条上市之路如蜀道“天梯”,阿里走得着实不易。虽最终选择赴美但关联方交易、可变利益实体、信息不对称等,将前行之路笼在雾里。     

IPO的时间窗口

持续的欧洲主权债务危机和全球经济下滑担忧带来的经济不确定性,不仅导致投资者信心不足,而且继续抑制着资本市场活动。在包括香港在内的中国证券市场,2012年迄今已经有超过700家企业进入IPO通道,其中许多已经过会,却仍在排队等待更好的上市时机。安永大中华区高增长市场主管合伙人何兆烽表示,"在当前困难的市场情况下,发行人和投资者将更为谨慎,他们正在等待全球市场的稳定和对全球经济增长点的担忧消散,以决定何时在资本市场再度活跃。"他提醒等待IPO的公司,在未来几个月中,IPO交易的机遇之窗可能转瞬即逝,需要提前做好准备,一旦可行的市场窗口打开,就应立即采取行动。     

The Variability of IPO Initial Returns

The monthly volatility of IPO initial returns is substantial, fluctuates dramatically over time, and is considerably larger during “hot” IPO markets. Consistent with IPO theory, the volatility of initial returns is higher for firms that are more difficult to value because of higher information asymmetry. Our findings highlight underwriters’ difficulty in valuing companies characterized by high uncertainty, and raise serious questions about the efficacy of the traditional firm‐commitment IPO process. One implication of our results is that alternate mechanisms, such as auctions, could be beneficial for firms that value price discovery over the auxiliary services provided by underwriters.     

Discussion of “Investor Sophistication and the Mispricing of Accruals”

Collins et al. (2003, this issue) empirically investigate the relation between accruals mispricing and institutional ownership (IO), a proxy for investor sophistication. Their results show that accruals mispricing and IO are negatively correlated; less IO, more accruals mispricing. The authors attribute this differential in accruals mispricing to institutions' superior ability to price accruals either due to superior analytical ability or due to greater access to private information. While the research question is intriguing, a number of methodological limitations may limit the reliability and generality of the findings. In this paper, I discuss these limitations and offer ways of overcoming them, as well as identify a future research avenue in the area of mispricing.     

The Time-Series Behavior of IPO Betas

We examine individual IPO betas and provide further evidence that the documented decline in IPO betas results primarily from a seasoning or information effect and not from the delisting of high beta securities. We employ stochastic coefficient regression analysis which permits the estimation of individual IPO betas at all points in time, and therefore avoids disadvantages associated with grouped cross-sectional beta estimates and average individual time-series beta estimates. We find that IPO firms with the lowest betas are more likely to delist, and that individual IPO betas, on average, decline over time which provides support for the information hypothesis.     

The Expiration of IPO Share Lockups

We examine 1,948 share lockup agreements that prevent insiders from selling their shares in the period immediately after the IPO (typically 180 days). While lockups are in effect, there is little selling by insiders. When lockups expire, we find a permanent 40 percent increase in average trading volume, and a statistically prominent three-day abnormal return of −1.5 percent. The abnormal return and volume are much larger when the firm is financed by venture capital, and we find that venture capitalists sell more aggressively than executives and other shareholders. We find limited support for several hypotheses that may explain the abnormal return, but no complete explanation.     

Robust determinants of IPO underpricing and their implications for IPO research

Using several different methodologies, we quantify the statistical robustness of variables used in prior research to explain initial IPO returns. We establish a parsimonious list of robust variables and evaluate their implications for different theories of IPO underpricing and clustering. Further, we illustrate how using such a set of robust explanatory variables leads to several different conclusions than prior research that failed to include these important control variables. Researchers who identify new potential predictors of IPO initial returns should control for the list of robust variables we identify.     

Mispricing and lasting arbitrage between parallel markets in the Czech Republic

If co-existing parallel markets are efficient, then arbitrage will maintain a correct pricing relationship. A related question is whether two parallel emerging markets offering more or less the same securities but using different institutional designs, can behave as a single, fully integrated market. In this paper an explicit model of price convergence (with transaction costs) is introduced, in which price differences are studied using levels of arbitrage activity. For the empirical analysis two parallel markets in the Czech Republic are used — the Prague Stock Exchange (PSE) and the RMS (over-the-counter system). In particular, the degree of arbitrage activity is studied for different segments of the PSE and the evolution of arbitrage in the early history of these emerging markets. The empirical results provide evidence of market linkage for actively traded stocks. A significant relationship is found between the segment of the market to which a given firm belongs and the estimated level of arbitrage trading. Moreover, the level of arbitrage activity increases over time for all market segments, and as the markets mature, the differences among the segments gradually disappear.     

The Impact of Fundamentals on IPO Valuation

We examine how initial public offering (IPO) valuation has changed over time by focusing on three time periods: 1986-1990, January 1997 to March 2000 (designated as the boom period), and April 2000 to December 2001 (designated as the crash period). Using a sample of 1,655 IPOs, we find that firms with more negative earnings have higher valuations than do firms with less negative earnings and firms with more positive earnings have higher valuations than firms with less positive earnings. Our results suggest that negative earnings are a proxy for growth opportunities for Internet firms and that such growth options are a significant component of IPO firm value.     

IPO溢价与中签率——理论和证据

本文通过探讨首次公开发行(IPO)的溢价问题,我们从博弈论的角度,借助第一级密封价格拍卖模型对IPO首日溢价的微观机理进行考察,发现竞买者越多,也即中签率越低,那么IPO的溢价越低。我们进一步使用我国上市公司的IPO数据对理论的推导结果进行检验。我们控制了其他可能的影响因素、替换控制变量、检验子样本以及考虑到可能存在的内生性问题,验证了这一理论的结果。我们的研究对于我国证券市场效率的改善有一定的启示。     

日本IPO发售机制的演变

本文概述了IPO发售机制的种类及在各国的具体变化,介绍了美国式累计订单询价机制的特点.从各国新股发售机制的演变来看,日本采用过几乎所有的发售机制,具有着鲜明的特点.在对日本新股发售机制的发展演变过程进行了较为详细的分析后,本文对我国新股发行询价制提出了相应的建议.     

IPO定价方式的比较分析与我国IPO定价的市场化改革

资本市场的基本功能之一就是对资产进行合理定价。国际上常用的IPO定价评估方法主要有三大类。分别是绝对估值法、相对估值法和实物期权法,在具体运用过程中,它们各自都有优缺点。而当前我国IPO定价存在的问题表现为抑价幅度过大、机构投资者操纵新股询价、发行监管部门的权力与责任不对等以及发行公司信息披露机制不完善。改变这些不足的方法是坚持IPO定价的市场化改革方向,尤其是要引入问责机制,进一步完善IPO询价制度。