“一带一路”倡议下中国与西亚贸易潜力研究--基于引力模型的实证分析

西亚地处亚欧非交界地带,自古以来就是丝绸之路的重要组成部分,广泛开展与西亚各国的经贸关系对“一带一路”建设具有重要意义。本文以中国与西亚各国的进出口贸易数据为基础,利用扩展的贸易引力模型分析了中国与西亚各国的贸易潜力,测算了双边贸易效率。实证结果表明:双方人均GDP、西亚各国的人口规模和区域贸易协定可以显著促进双边贸易,双边距离和中国的人口规模会阻碍贸易发展。据此建议中国在与西亚贸易往来时,应注重优化贸易结构、加强区域合作、发展港口运输和基础设施建设以及防范贸易风险。     

An economic analysis of the impacts of trade liberalization on Asian dairy market

This paper develops an economic analysis of the impacts of further trade liberalization scenarios on Asian dairy markets, using a world dairy model incorporating both vertical and spatial characteristics of the world dairy sector. Japan and Korea’ producers will suffer much bigger losses from trade liberalization than other countries in the region; Japan and Korea’s producers get much more protection from trade distortions than from domestic subsidy. India is a potential competitive exporter if Asia is liberalized. China and India are potential competitive exporters under global free trade. South East Asia and other South Asian countries remain importers under free trade. Greater trade liberalization around the world increases exports for potential exporters and/or ease importing pressure for potential importers. The increasing order of competitiveness of Asian dairy economies sectors is found to be Japan, Korea, South East Asia, other South Asia, China and India. China and India consumers would lose from world trade liberalization, but the other countries’ consumer surplus will increase.     

The impact of ICT convergence on development in the Asian region

Emerging economies in the Asia–Pacific region are experiencing dramatic and accelerating changes in patterns of ownership and investment in their telecommunications sectors, as well as in convergence. This paper will highlight the significant dependence of emerging economies of the region on convergence of ICT and how these technologies create new networks. Evidence will be cited from China, the Asian Dragons and the near NIEs like Malaysia and Indonesia, to show how they have created one of the largest markets in the world for telecoms equipment and services. The Southeast Asian countries with their open economies and export oriented investment technologies have proved that such policies have generated trade surpluses and long-term growth despite their current financial crises. They still plan to continue ascribing priority in their investment patterns to converging ICT.     

How far down the path to free trade? The importance of rice price stabilization in developing Asia

International trade agreements are pushing the world in the direction of free trade. But price stabilization, which is inconsistent with completely free trade, remains important in developing Asia because of the large share of rice in economic output. A policy of pure price stabilization for rice, without consistent protection (either subsidization or taxation), can help to create the macroeconomic stability that is essential for sustained rapid economic growth by increasing the quantity and efficiency of investment throughout the economy. Pure price stabilization can also generate significant equity gains by protecting poor consumers and farmers from sharp fluctuations in prices. While domestic commodity price stabilization schemes have a checkered history around the world, the experience of Asian countries in stabilizing rice prices offers more scope for optimism. Asian governments have been generally successful in stabilizing rice prices, and there are several instances where this has been accomplished without sustained protection of either consumers or farmers. However, there is room for improved stabilization mechanisms that would lower the costs of intervention.     

新时期中俄投资合作的现状与对策分析

近年来,中俄经贸关系总体发展顺利,即使受到金融危机的冲击,两国经贸合作不断深化的大方向仍不会改变。当前中俄投资合作的规模和质量均快速增长,取得了前所未有的成果,但与双边贸易额相比合作规模不大,仍处在起步阶段。因此,有必要深入研究当前中俄投资合作的现状,从中发现问题并采取正确的对策措施。     

Food irradiation in Asia and the Pacific

Although there has been considerable progress in the technology of food irradiation over recent years, barriers still restrict commercial applications in many countries, thus limiting international trade. However, there are moves to demonstrate the practical benefits of this method particularly in the developing countries of the Asian and Pacific region who have joined together in an international cooperative project. Based on developments in China and elsewhere, it is likely that more countries in this region will use food irradiation to combat high rates of food losses and to improve the quality of certain foods in the future.     

中国对外直接投资、东道国政府治理与经济增长 ——基于东盟国家的经验证据

东盟作为我国新一轮对外开放和“一带一路”建设的重要区域,一直是我国对外直接投资的重点关注对象。评估东盟各国的政府治理水平,可以更好的判断投资环境、识别风险,助力双方互惠共赢。本文通过构建东盟国家的政府治理指数,实证分析中国对外直接投资、东盟国家政府治理对东盟国家经济增长的影响,研究表明:中国对外直接投资促进了东盟国家的经济增长;东盟国家的政府治理对其经济增长并没有直接影响,但是却抑制了中国直接投资对东盟国家经济增长的促进作用。未来中国对东盟国家的直接投资应更注重长期效应,重视营商环境以及国家吸收外国投资的能力,根据东盟国家的政治经济发展差异,实行“一国一策”的投资策略。     

Evolving dairy markets in Asia: Recent findings and implications

This paper is an overview of important findings regarding the ongoing evolution of Asian dairy markets based on a series of new economic investigations. These investigations provide systematic empirical foundations to assess Asian dairy markets with their new consumption patterns, changing industries, and trade prospects under different domestic and trade policy regimes, with four case studies (China, India, Japan, and Korea), a prospective analysis of future regional patterns of consumption, and a policy analysis of trade liberalization of Asian dairy markets. The overview distills the findings of these new investigations and integrates them in the earlier economic literature; it draws policy implications, and identifies lessons for countries outside of Asia, especially for emerging exporters in Latin America.     

中国对“一带一路”亚非欧重点国家直接投资效率评价研究——基于动态DEA方法

对外直接投资效率问题关系着我国对外直接投资的质量,自“一带一路”倡议实施以来,2019年我国对外直接投资存量已达21988.8亿美元。为促进我国“一带一路”合作机制进一步走深走实,本文基于动态DEA模型,选取亚非欧60个国家为研究对象,研究2013~2019年我国对“一带一路”沿线国家的直接投资效率。实证分析发现:我国对亚非欧60个国家的OFDI总效率整体处于中低水平,国别差异较大,国家间差距呈现出亚洲>欧洲>非洲的情况;各项指标效率表现为欧洲>亚洲>非洲;三大区域IDI、ET、FR效率值呈现出差异化特征。为此提出加强东道国基础设施建设国际合作,优化产业结构,强化双边贸易关系等对策建议,从而促进“一带一路”合作机制的深入开展,加强与沿线国家的经贸投资和国际合作。     

投资新热土:伊拉克库尔德地区

近期,埃克森美孚不顾伊拉克中央政府的一再警告,参与投资了库尔德地区的6个勘探区块,事态发展引起各方高度关注.虽然伊拉克库尔德地方政府和中央政府的油气资源争端仍未解决,但库尔德地区正日益成为新的投资的热点.多种因素吸引外国石油公司投资库尔德地区油气项目:1)库尔德地区石油资源丰富;2)对外合作模式更有吸引力;3)社会相对稳定;4)外国石油公司希望藉此迫使伊拉克中央政府改善投资环境;5)外国石油公司转变发展战略注重获取资源;6)伊拉克中央政府和库尔德地方政府关系有所缓解,使外国公司看到了在库尔德投资的希望.在处理与库尔德地方政府争端的问题上,伊拉克中央政府可能持续执行“黑名单”政策,也可能放宽战后第四轮招标合同条款.在上述背景下,建议中国石油企业:1)积极关注国际石油公司撤离伊拉克南部大油田项目后的投资机会;2)关注库尔德地区的投资机会;3)采取措施应对伊拉克共享海水项目的一再延期;4)研究策略应对伊拉克严峻的油气投资环境;5)分散投资风险,寻求在风险较低国家的油气投资机会.     

长安开门红，开门红世界

To enhance the energy security in Asia, it is important to clarify the policy goals for the energy security. China‘s continuing economic growth and increasing energy demand, increasing oil consumption in the US marketare the^°°factors to be considered for the energy security policies.     

Business groups in East Asia: Post-crisis restructuring and new growth

Business groups played an important role in the economic development of East Asian countries. Yet business groups in East Asia face an uncertain future. Following the Asian Crisis, foreign creditors and investors have demanded that business groups have more transparent operations and stronger corporate governance. At the same time, as governments in East Asia have loosened trade barriers, business groups have become subject to intense competition in domestic markets. This paper argues that business groups can survive or even prosper by taking initiatives in corporate restructuring. This paper also highlights some areas for further research on business groups in this region.

世界石油贸易新秩序中的亚洲与中国——记“2012亚太石油贸易国际会议”

《国际石油经济》编辑部与士研传媒共同举办的“2012亚太石油贸易国际会议”,聚焦行业热点问题,在开放的平台上与来自各国的专家共同研判未来亚太地区特别是东北亚地区的石油贸易变化趋势,探讨如何利用金融工具规避石油贸易风险,展望石油仓储船运业的发展前景.亚洲与中国在世界石油贸易的新秩序下还没有完成角色转换,缺少在国际石油贸易中的话语权.因此在石油金融领域,中国正在推动石油贸易的人民币结算,推进中国原油期货上市.此次会议还分享了韩国提出的建立东北亚石油枢纽的构想.会议的成果对促进本地区石油贸易、石油合作和石油安全具有重要参考价值.     

Agricultural policy reforms and food security in Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan

This paper provides an overview of agricultural policy reforms and their impact on food security in Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. Owing to increasing hostility in regional trade among the countries of Central Asia, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, like their neighbors, have chosen to follow a path of food self-sufficiency, which has biased their agricultural systems towards grain production. The paper finds that the land reforms in these two countries, which have dismantled the state farms, have resulted in reduced productivity of crops and declining food availability at the household level. It argues that reversing this trend will require increased investment in rural infrastructure and agricultural research to improve crop yields, and in the short-term, food security interventions to protect the poor and vulnerable.     

Trade liberalization and food security in Nepal

Among South Asian countries, Nepal liberalized most extensively during the 1980s and 1990s on both domestic and external fronts. In South Asia, Nepal has the lowest per capita income, highest dependence of population on agriculture and second highest poverty rate. At the same time, Nepal has the lowest average tariffs in South Asia and has taken several steps to downsize its public food distribution system and remove a host of agricultural subsidies. The outcomes from these policy reforms in Nepal are mixed. Aggregate indicators of food sufficiency and security (per capita food availability, extent of malnourishment) show improvement in Nepal since liberalization. Relative to other South Asian countries, Nepal is doing better on some indicators, like extent of undernourished population, while on other indicators, like stunting of children, Nepal is actually doing the worst. More importantly, the gains from liberalization across regions in Nepal have been uneven. The reason for such an uneven outcome is lack of complementary policies from the government that would lead to spatial integration of markets (e.g. the creation of physical and marketing infrastructure). Liberalization has in effect reinforced the ex-ante hierarchy across regions in Nepal. The paper then reviews the role and reform of the Nepal Food Corporation (NFC) within this broader context.     

西藏经贸改革中的民间投资与产业深化

在外部经济环境日益市场化的情况下，政府对基础设施和社会服务投资虽然能够有效地改善经济发展环境，但政府在竞争性生产和贸易领域中投资办企业却往往造成资源浪费，导致财政重负和不良金融资产。外来民间资本为西藏内贸和边贸注入发展活力的案例表明，政府有意识地为民间资本的积累创造物质和制度条件，借助于市场导向的民间投资来培育具有内在增长潜力的产业，不仅是摆脱生产和贸易投资失败的一条出路，而且对于保持西藏持久的经济繁荣至关重要。     

Religiosity and psychological contracts in Asian B2B service relationships

The growing significance of Asia in global trade has meant that service organizations within the region need to build robust relationships with customers that may reside in nations with different socio-cultural backgrounds. This paper draws on the theories of social exchange and social capital to examine how Indonesian service providers build B2B relationships with their Asian customers in the region, when the customers are from non-Islamic nations. This study used a survey to collect its primary data. Data from 312 Indonesian firms revealed that Asian cultural-specific concepts of religiosity not only had a positive impact on transactional and relational psychological contracts, but also dampened psychological contract breaches. Only relational psychological contracts had a positive effect on relational capital and relational wellbeing, despite transactional contracts being intrinsic to these relationships. Relational capital helped to reduce psychological contract breaches and improve relationship wellbeing, whereas psychological contract breaches reduced such wellbeing. Our findings significantly extend research on B2B service relationships and offer valuable managerial insights for service decision makers operating in Asia that involves B2B relationships between organizations with specific and different socio-cultural backgrounds.     

美国页岩气发展对全球天然气市场的影响

在页岩气勘探开发技术取得突破后,美国页岩气产量迅速增加.这不仅给美国天然气市场带来一场变革,而且对其进口来源国--加拿大的天然气生产影响显著,并改变了北美及全球天然气和LNG市场的供求关系,亚太地区的天然气和LNG市场将获得更多资源保障.我国应抓住这一机遇,加强与美国、加拿大、俄罗斯等国的国际合作,加快国内页岩气资源的开发,同时适时调整国内天然气利用政策,加快我国天然气工业的发展.     

Economic viability of foreign investment in railways: a case study of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)

Abstract

Pakistan Railways has faced a severe financial crisis in recent years. Pakistan has recently become a partner with China in a mega-investment project under an agreement called the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Among other things, CPEC also includes a range of investments in Pakistan Railways. This particular study focuses on the analysis of US$8.2 billion investment in the upgrade and expansion of the Karachi-Peshawar railways link, which is also known as the ML-1 (Main Line 1). The study found ML-1 as economically viable with a payback period of 10?years. Furthermore, ML-1 project investment is expected to result in uplifting Pakistan Railways, mainly through an increase in freight and passenger transportation. Some risk factors may hinder the expected economic return from the CPEC investment in Pakistan Railways. These factors include consistency in the government policies, the status of the Pakistani economy in upcoming years, and law and order situations in the country. The study has a utility for the governments of both countries and larger business communities have stakes in the trade between the two countries. It is equally beneficial for the international community, businesses (both in China and Pakistan) and locals of the region associated with the CPEC infrastructure.     

世界石油市场十年回顾与展望

过去10年,国际石油市场剧烈动荡,油价大起大落。全球经济经历了时间长于以往的扩张期,新兴国家的石油需求迅猛增长,亚太地区吸引了越来越多的石油资源。油价上涨在表现出明显的"需求驱动"特征的同时,其影响因素也呈复杂化和多元化的趋势。由于上游投资不足,供需基本面出现严重的紧平衡。在经历了2008年的金融危机之后,随着经济刺激计划的实施以及世界经济的逐步复苏,全球经济将迎来又一轮的景气周期。展望未来,发展中国家的石油需求量有望在近年超过发达国家,全球需求和贸易重心东移的势头更加明显;石油供应日益集中在少数国家,其潜在的政治风险将带来供应增长的不确定性。石油的概念将发生演变,并扩展至天然气凝析液、生物燃料、天然气合成油和煤制油等,导致整体石油品质变轻以及中间馏分油供需矛盾加剧。油价总体水平将继续走高,但由于金融监管加强,油价的大幅异常波动可能会受到抑制。未来油价底限取决于石油边际成本,上限取决于替代能源成本;油价本身的变动最终取决于剩余产能以及供需面。