Happiness convergence in transition countries

The “transition happiness gap” has been one of the most robust findings in the literature on life satisfaction. Until very recently, scholars using various datasets have shown that residents of post-communist countries were significantly less satisfied with their lives than their counterparts in non-transition countries (controlling for income and other socio-economic characteristics). The literature has explained this finding by the great macroeconomic instability of the 1990s, by a substantial decrease in the quality and accessibility of public goods, by the major increase in inequality, and by the rapid depreciation of pre-transition human capital. All these factors were expected to subside over time – at least after the post-Great-Recession recovery. In this paper, we consider two most recent datasets – the third wave of the Life in Transition Survey (administered in 2015–16) and the 2010–2016 waves of the annual Gallup World Poll. We find that by 2016 the transition happiness gap had closed. This convergence has taken place both due to a “happiness recovery” in post-communist countries after the Great Recession and due to a decrease in life satisfaction in comparator countries in recent years. We also find that the convergence in life satisfaction was primarily driven by middle-income young, educated individuals, regardless of gender.     

Monetary and fiscal policy interaction and government debt stabilization

Employing differential games, this paper models the strategic interaction between monetary authorities who control monetization and fiscal authorities who control primary fiscal deficits. We analytically compute and interpret the cooperative and noncooperative Nash open-loop equilibria. Furthermore, we reinterpret unpleasant monetarist arithmetic and analyze the impact of a more conservative central bank. Finally, to explore the consequences of a more independent central bank, we analyze Stackelberg open-loop equilibria.     

Monetary policy shocks and productivity measures in the G-7 countries

An implication of two-country international real business cycle models is that total factor productivity should be an exogenous stochastic process. Economic theories which feature labor hoarding, variable capacity utilization, and increasing returns predict that measured productivity shifts are not exogenous; instead, expansionary aggregate demand shocks should lead to an increase in measured productivity. For each of the G-7 countries, this paper measures quarterly aggregate total factor productivity for the domestic country and its rest-of-world (G-6) counterpart. In each case the domestic productivity measures are not strictly exogenous: expansionary U.S. monetary policy shocks, as well as other G-6 monetary policy shocks, lead to productivity expansions. The evidence indicates that international business cycle models are misspecified unless they feature endogenous productivity mechanisms.Received: June 2001, Accepted: December 2001, JEL Classification: E5, F4Correspondence to: Charles L. EvansFor their helpful comments, we thank Mario Crucini, Patricia Reynolds, and Steve Strongin. The views expressed in this paper do not necessarily reflect the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago or the Federal Reserve System.     

Riding the wave: Monetary responses to aid surges in low-income countries

We focus on the management of highly persistent shocks to aid flows in the presence of currency substitution by the domestic private sector. Such shocks have beneficent long-run effects, but when currency substitution is high they can produce dramatic macroeconomic management problems in the short run. What is the appropriate mix of money and exchange rate targeting in such cases, and the role of temporary sterilization? We analyze these and related issues in an intertemporal optimizing model that allows a portion of aid to be devoted to reducing the government's seigniorage requirement. Our results show that a managed float, with little or no sterilization of increases in the monetary base, supports the smooth absorption of the increased aid without incurring higher inflation, higher real interest rates or overshooting of the real exchange rate.     

The relationship between policies and growth in transition countries

This paper combines Hendry’s general to specific procedure and Leamer’s Extreme Bounds analysis to assess the robustness of the relationship between growth in transition countries and a set of variables included in other studies. The results indicate a robust relationship between inflation and growth. A significant long–term effect of liberalization on growth is not found, which throws doubt on previous empirical studies of the relationship between liberalization and growth. However, the long–term benefits from liberalization may be indirect, via macro stability. Robustness tests also throw doubt on the effect of fiscal and exchange rate policies on growth. JEL classification: P24, P41, C23.     

Growth, income distribution and well-being in transition countries

We apply several well-being measures that combine average income with a measure of inequality to international and intertemporal comparisons of well-being in transition countries. Our well-being measures drastically change the impression of levels and changes in well-being compared to a traditional reliance on income measures. Due to low inequality and moderate income levels, socialist countries enjoyed relatively high levels of economic well-being. In the transition process, rising inequality and falling incomes have led to a dramatic absolute decline in well-being and a considerable drop in relative well-being vis-à-vis non-transition countries. We also find a close correlation between income losses and inequality increases. While the transition has been successful in expanding political and civil rights, our indicators suggest that most transition countries are still below the level of economic well-being of the late 1980s.
JEL classification: D6, O15, P27.     

Investment behaviour in transition countries and computable general equilibrium models

When applying Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models to transition economies, it is not plausible to use the standard assumption that the base year data represent stable structural characteristics or even the steady state of the economy. The suggestions forwarded until now to overcome this problem are discussed in this article. An amendment is proposed by modifying the investment modelling within the dynamic CGE setting. The standard formulation of installation costs for capital is extended through the inclusion of adjustment costs that depend on the change of the investment level. Such formulation of the adjustment costs within the dynamic CGE model leads to an investment behaviour that mirrors the empirical data of the first years of the transition.     

Purchasing power parity in transition countries: Sequential panel selection method

This study applies the Sequential Panel Selection Method (SPSM), proposed by Chortareas and Kapetanios (2009) to test the validity of long-run purchasing power parity (PPP) for a sample of 14 transition countries, using real effective exchange rates, from 1994 to 2012 (for both monthly and quarterly data). SPSM classifies the whole panel into a group of stationary series and a group of non-stationary series. In doing so, we can clearly identify how many and which series in the panel are stationary processes. Empirical results from the SPSM using the Panel KSS unit root test (Ucar and Omay, 2009) with a Fourier function indicate that PPP holds true for most of these transition countries studied. Our results have important policy implications for these transition countries under study.     

Monetary institutions, budget deficits and inflation : Empirical results for eight countries

This study examines the implications of central bank independence using a three-equation model of monetary base growth, budget deficits and inflation that is estimated over an eight-country sample — of which Switzerland, the United States and West Germany are the countries considered to possess relatively autonomous central banks. A main finding is that central bank policy appears to be directed more toward price stability and less toward accommodation of government budget deficits in countries with a central bank that is independent of government. There is also some suggestion that the inflationary consequences of monetary expansion may be lessened under a more decentralised institutional setting.     

Monetary policy credibility and exchange rate pass-through: Some evidence from emerging countries

Considering external constraints on monetary policy in emerging countries, we propose a semi-structural vector autoregressive model with exogenous variables (VARX) to examine the exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices. We demonstrate that a lower exchange rate pass-through is associated with a credible monetary policy aiming at controlling inflation. The empirical results suggest that the exchange rate pass-through is higher in Latin American countries than in East Asian countries. The exchange rate pass-through has declined after the adoption of an inflation targeting monetary policy.     

Exports and economic growth in Central and East European countries during transition

This paper quantifies the contribution of exports to economic growth in Central and East European countries (CEECs) during transition. Two theoretical models are examined: the first is based on an aggregate production function which includes exports as an additional ‘input’; while the second is based on a two-sector (exports and non-exports) model where exports provide positive externalities in non-export production. Each model is estimated with both fixed and random effects using panel data. Results show that the random effects model is preferred and that exports have a significant impact on economic growth.     

Monetary policy implementation and transmission in the European Monetary Union

I discuss possible problems engendered by loss of national monetary policies, and study them from three empirical perspectives. First, are business cycles sufficiently synchronized across EMU member countries? The evidence suggests that economic activity in those countries has become increasingly correlated in the 1990s, and that policy co–ordination has played a role in generating that outcome. Second, are there asymmetries in the mechanisms through which policy affects economic activity? The paper documents that policy transmission was indeed heterogeneous in the member countries, and that structural and financial factors were sensibly related to cross–country differences in the response of output to a monetary policy shock. Third, how is policy implemented in an environment of diverse business cycle fundamentals and transmission mechanisms? Estimation of monetary policy reaction functions finds that the European Central Bank is closer to an aggregate of the central banks in Germany, France, and Italy than to the Bundesbank alone.     

Long-run purchasing power parity with asymmetric adjustment: Further evidence from nine transition countries

In this study, we applied a threshold cointegration test to investigate the properties of asymmetric adjustment on long-run purchasing power parity (PPP) in nine transition countries between January 1995 and December 2008. Although there was strong evidence of long-run PPP for these nine transition countries (i.e., Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, and Russia), the adjustment mechanism was asymmetric. These results have important policy implications for the nine transition countries included in the study.