Robust estimation for structural spurious regressions and a Hausman-type cointegration test

This paper analyzes an approach to correcting spurious regressions involving unit-root nonstationary variables by generalized least squares (GLS) using asymptotic theory. This analysis leads to a new robust estimator and a new test for dynamic regressions. The robust estimator is consistent for structural parameters not just when the regression error is stationary but also when it is unit-root nonstationary under certain conditions. We also develop a Hausman-type test for the null hypothesis of cointegration for dynamic ordinary least squares (OLS) estimation. We demonstrate our estimation and testing methods in three applications: (i) long-run money demand in the U.S., (ii) output convergence among industrial and developing countries, and (iii) purchasing power parity (PPP) for traded and non-traded goods.     

An elementary proposition on technical progress and non-traded goods

We explore the effect of technical progress on the endogenously determined range of non-traded goods by using a Ricardian model with continuum of goods. By defining technical progress on the basis of proportional changes in the relative productivity across sectors, we show that the range of non-traded goods decreases if technical progress is unbiased or if it is biased toward the goods that a country has more comparative advantage.     

Place utility,attribute tradeoff,and choice behavior in an intra-urban migration context

This study develops a unique methodology for analyzing intraurban migration with emphasis on housing and neighborhood attributes and preferences. When applied to a typical midwestern metropolitan area, the methodology reveals that safety and security from crime and quality of construction are the most important attributes to the home buyer. Property tax rates and nearness to work were much less important. Analysis of the intra-urban migration process through attribute satisfaction ratings for different homes revealed that the greatest increases in satisfaction were expected for those variables previously considered most important in an abstract sense.     

SPECIFYING AND TESTING OUTPUT AND PRICING STRUCTURES OF ALTERNATIVE MACROECONOMIC MODELS

ABSTRACT This paper puts forward a framework for choosing between alternative macroeconomic models. It is shown that a three-sector model with importables, exportables and non-traded goods can be specified so as to encompass both the Keynesian one-sector imperfect substitutes model and the two-sector dependent economy model with traded and non-traded goods as special cases. A two-stage test procedure is suggested in order to let the data determine which of these alternative models is the most appropriate. The use of this procedure is illustrated for the case of Argentina, Brazil and Mexico.     

Emigration,unemployment and welfare – The role of non-traded sector

In this paper we examine the consequences of skilled versus unskilled labor migration on the welfare of remaining residents (RR) in an economy characterized by unemployment of unskilled labor. It is established that emigration of unskilled workers necessarily raises both the level of employment and the welfare of RR. However, this result need not hold when skilled workers emigrate freely. In obtaining these results we emphasize the critical significance of the non-traded sector in an economy.     

From Bismarck to Maastricht: The March to European Union and the Labor Compact

This paper considers the likely impact that European Union (EU) will have on the labor compact. It is argued that, despite increased economic integration in Europe, countries will still be able to maintain distinct labor practices if they are willing to bear the cost of those practices. The incidence of many social protections probably already falls on workers. In addition, it is argued that imperfect mobility of capital, labor, goods and services will limit the pressure that integration will place on the labor compact. Evidence is presented suggesting that labor mobility among EU countries has not increased after the elimination of remaining restrictions on intra-EU labor mobility in 1993. Moreover, immigration from non-EU countries, which is much larger than intra-EU migration, has declined since 1993. Evidence is also reviewed suggesting that the demand for social protection rises when countries are more open, and therefore subject to more severe external shocks. This finding suggests that increased economic integration and European Monetary Union (EMU) could lead to greater demand for social protection. The U.S. experience with state workers' compensation insurance programs is offered as an example of enduring differences in labor market protections in highly integrated regional economies with a common currency.     

Temporary international migration and the nontraded sector of the labor-importing developing economy

In this paper the author examines the effects of external migration on the nontraded sector of the labor-importing developing economy. It is found that devaluation by the labor-exporting country will reduce the pressure on excess demand for labor and reduce the price of nontraded goods. Increases in the migrant workers’ consumption expenditures, the government expenditures on nontraded goods and the price of traded goods will increase the pressure on excess demand for labor and raise the price of nontraded goods. The effects of an increase in host country nominal wage, however, will remain ambiguous.     

Neighborhood amenities: An economic analysis

A spatial model of household and firm demand and supply of market goods is developed. Housing and neighborhood amenity markets are explicitly considered in deriving market equilibrium. The equilibrium relationships are empirically investigated, yielding important insights into the functioning of the urban economy. Attention is focused on externalities involved in neighborhood markets and the simultaneous determination of housing and amenity market equilibrium. The effect of neighborhood amenities on household equilibrium is of a major magnitude and effects of “externality” variables on both housing and amenity equilibrium are substantiated. The degree of neighborhood homogeneity and the extent of government programs aimed at neighborhood development are found to have significant impacts on housing and amenity markets.     

Evolution in a General Equilibrium framework

In this paper, we consider a general equilibrium model in which the economies are characterized by the distribution of firms on a set of branches of production; we will show that based on the decisions of the managers of the firms, it is possible to build a dynamic system whose solutions reproduce the possible trajectories of the economy. Once the initial state of an economy is known, that is, the initial distribution of firms, we will have a unique solution for this dynamic system, which will coincide with the evolution of the economy, that is, the evolution of prices and equilibrium allocations.The investment decisions of the administrators of the companies will change the distribution over the set of existing productive branches, which in turn will produce changes in the wealth of consumers who are also shareholders of the companies and then as a consequence, their demand will change, and therefore the equilibrium allocations and prices will too.In most cases, these decisions lead to an improvement in the efficiency of the productive side of the economy and an increase in the welfare of the economy as a whole, but, as we will show, under some particular circumstances, even when it comes to rational decisions from the point of view of administrators, this can lead to undesirable repercussions on the welfare of consumers. Besides, in a neighborhood of a critical economy, even when these decisions may involve small changes in the distribution of companies, they can cause abrupt and unexpected changes in the behavior of the economy, or in other words, they can cause an economic crisis. These are characterized by large changes in the prices, in the demand, and in the supply of goods. In contrast, in a sufficiently small neighborhood of a regular economy, small changes in the distribution of firms produced by the investment decisions of managers do not lead to large changes in the subsequent behavior of the economy. We will exemplify these statements with several numerical examples.     

配送中心选址的定量研究

配送中心的总体规划，就是从空间和实践上，对配送中心的新建，改造和扩建进行全面系统的规划。配送中心选址就是在一个具有若干需求点的经济区域内，选一个地址设置配送中心。本文通过两个不同方法数学模型的建立定量地分析配送中心的选址。从而得出较佳的配送中心选址方案，使商品通过配送中心的汇集、中转、分发，直至发输送到需求点的全过程的效益最好。     

The Social Provision of Punishment and Incarceration

Standard economic theory proposes that public goods (equally available to everyone) will be underprovided by private markets. Individuals can benefit without having to pay, so there is little incentive to invest or manage resources efficiently. The punishment of criminals is an example of this, since everyone in a society benefits from reduced crime whether they pay to apprehend criminals or not. On that basis, it is widely presumed that governments must provide criminal justice services, including prisons. But the evidence in favor of that view is ambiguous. Stateless societies throughout history have found ways to maintain public order without ever building a prison. Nations with adequate social safety nets and a high degree of equality are also likely to rely on alternatives to incarceration. Strong forms of public goods theory, when applied to punishments and prisons, are shown to be false, since crime control does exist without a centralized state. Furthermore, the available evidence suggests that centralized government provision and management can also suffer inefficiencies from overproduction. Only comparative institutional analysis can speak to the efficiency potentials of punishment, wherein the costs of underproduction are assessed against the likely consequences of overproduction.     

Recreation Demand and Residential Location

We use the properties of competitive location equilibrium to study the demand for recreation and the choice of primary residence location. Location-specific recreation and employment lead to pooling equilibria in which consumers reside according to their preference for recreation. In general, the stronger the taste for recreation, the greater the attraction of living close to the recreation site and the lower the demand for other goods, including housing. We explore the effects of trip frequency, trip length, and recreation cost on the spatial distribution of consumers. We also consider the effect of the wage rate on recreation and location demands.     

Charitable bequest importance among donors to different types of charities

This paper explores differences in the self‐rated importance of charitable estate giving depending upon the type of charitable cause a person donates to during life. One theoretical motivation for lifetime giving is to personally enjoy benefits from improving a shared collective good. However, this motivation is not possible for bequests. Bequest transfers and resulting improvements occur after personal enjoyment of benefits is no longer possible. This paper hypothesizes that among donors to high personal benefit causes (those typically creating shared goods benefitting donors), interest in a charitable bequest (which offers no opportunity for receiving such benefits) will be relatively less than among donors to low personal benefit causes. In order to explore this, each charity type is categorized as providing high, low, or mixed personal benefits from shared collective goods. This hypothesis receives mixed support. Donors to international relief organizations, a low personal benefit charity type, do place a higher importance on charitable bequests than do donors to shared‐goods type causes such as neighborhood associations, service clubs, sports leagues, or “other” charities, including those focused on local public safety and crime. However, donors to arts organizations—a classic example of donors creating a shared good—have a relatively high interest in charitable bequests. One important exception to the exclusion of postmortem personal benefits could come from religious belief. Accordingly, donors to religious causes do place a higher importance on charitable bequests.     

解析价值工程在亲子产品开发设计中的应用

随着市场经济的进一步发展,消费品市场呈现商品种类极大丰富,产品目标市场细致化,消费者需求多元化,企业竞争白热化的局面。如何提高自身产品的竞争力,扩大市场占有率,满足消费者对商品提出的更高要求,是企业迫切要解决的问题。本文从价值工程角度寻求解决问题的方法,以亲子产品为例论述价值工程在产品开发设计中的具体应用。     

Panel data estimates of the effects of different types of crime on housing prices

One of the most studied effects of crime is the impact that neighborhood crime has on housing values. A major drawback of these studies is that, although crime is undoubtedly endogenous in property value models because of either simultaneity, omitted variables or measurement error, the vast majority of studies treat crime measures as exogenous independent variables. We exploit a unique nine-year crime panel at the neighborhood level to estimate models that properly address the endogeneity of crime and allow us to overcome other specification errors that have plagued previous studies. Of the seven different types of crime we investigate, only robbery and aggravated assault crimes (per acre) exert a meaningful influence upon neighborhood housing values.     

Exchange Rates,Non-Traded Goods and the Terms Of Trade: An Empirical Application for New Zealand

This article formulates and tests for New Zealand a model of exchange rate determination focusing on non-tradeable goods and terms-of-trade shifts. We emphasize the equilibrium properties of this framework and, in this context, estimate an error correction model where adjustment in response to deviation from equilibrium is an important determinant of short-run exchange rate movements. We estimate the model using a new data series on the supply of non-tradeable goods. The model has desirable empirical characteristics, including a plausible error correction equation, strong support for cointegration and rapid convergence to the long-run equilibrium. Moreover, a variety of diagnostic statistics, including parameter stability tests andout-of-sample forecasting performance, indicate the equation is a parsimonious representation of the data. These results provide considerable support for the emphasis on ‘real’ determinants of nominal exchange rates, in this case fluctuations in non-traded goods supply and terms-of-trade.     

Population ageing and pension reform in a small open economy with non-traded goods

In this paper we study the implications of population ageing in an economy with a sizeable non-traded goods sector. To this effect a highly stylized micro-founded macro model is constructed in which the age structure of the population plays a non-trivial role. The model distinguishes separate birth and death probabilities (thus allowing for net population change), allows for age-dependent labour productivity (thus mimicing life-cycle saving), and includes a rudimentary pension system (thus allowing for intergenerational redistribution). The model is used to analytically study demographic and pension shocks.     

THE IMPACT OF RURAL OUTMIGRATION ON REGION OF ORIGIN IN KOREA*

To assess the impact of rural outmigration on regions of origin, this paper borrows from international trade theory to develop a model of rural-to-urban migration. Borrowing from theories of nontraded goods and Dutch Disease, a model is developed for application to Korea. The model finds that rural outmigration can be detrimental to the rural sector when outmigration reduces farm profitability and triggers deterioration in the rural service sector. Farm profitability falls because of rising labor costs that cannot be passed on to consumers. The rural service sector falters when outmigration reduces market demand while raising input costs. County (kun) level Korean census data are used to test the model.     

The Substitution Theorem in Urban Consumer Theory

This paper presents two nonparametric approaches to urban household location theory. For each model two sets of own price substitution theorems are presented, one for goods whose prices vary spatially and one for goods whose prices do not vary spatially in the market area. The usual substitution theorem derived in nonspatial demand theory is seen to hold for goods whose prices do not vary spatially. Goods whose prices vary spatially, however, reveal a significant departure from standard demand theory in that the substitution theorem is shown to hold unambiguously only for "parallel" shifts in spatial price surfaces. Further, the results are robust, extending to consumers in nonmonocentric urban areas, regardless of consumer tastes for travel distance or labor/leisure choice complications.     

A rational rank four demand system

Past parametric tests of demand system rank employed polynomial Engel curve systems. However, by Gorman's ( 1981 ) theorem, the maximum possible rank of a utility‐derived polynomial demand system is three. The present paper proposes a class of demand systems that are utility derived, are close to polynomial, and have rank four. These systems nest rational polynomial demands, and so can be used to test ranks up to four. These systems are suitable for applications where high rank is likely, such as demand systems involving a large number of goods. A test of rank using this new class of systems is applied to UK consumer demand data. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.