内地与香港双边贸易流量与潜力研究——基于贸易引力模型的实证分析

内地各省市（自治区）的GDP和人均GDP、香港人均GDP、绝对距离以及泛珠三角区域合作组织等解释变量,是影响双边贸易流量的主要因素;各因素的影响程度互有不同,内地各省市（自治区）对香港的出口贸易潜力也存在一定差异。因此,内地与香港应采取针对性的措施,进一步加强经贸交流和合作,充分发挥各自的区位优势和竞争优势,实现两地经济的共同繁荣。     

我国香港地区2002年人均GDP高居全球第三

香港特区政府投资推广署署长卢维思日前透露 ,2 0 0 3年香港共吸引外来直接投资高达 2 2 0亿美元 ,这一成绩在亚太区仅次于中国内地。卢维思指出 ,祖国内地去年吸引了超过 40 0亿美元的外来直接投资 ,是亚洲区第 3位至第 6位地区吸引外资的总和。香港的人均ＧＤＰ高居全球第 3位 ,仅次于美国和日本。我国香港地区2002年人均GDP高居全球第三     

正确认识GDP指标实现经济又好又快发展

2006年是"十一五"规划的开局之年,全国各省区市GDP快速增长的"成绩单"令人瞩目.据悉,上海2006年GDP首次跨越万亿关,预计将超过10300亿元.广州市2006年的地区生产总值将达到6236亿元,按照现行汇率和户籍人口计算,人均GDP将超过11000美元,成为中国内地第一个跨入人均GDP过万美元的城市.     

美国量化宽松政策对“大中华经济圈”的溢出效应研究

本文通过构建SVAR模型来研究美国量化宽松政策对“大中华经济圈”的溢出效应.结果表明,美国量化宽松政策的实施推动了人民币的升值,且较之于香港、澳门和台湾,其正向溢出效应影响更加长远;量化宽松政策对中国内地的GDP产出产生短时间的正向冲击,对香港和台湾的冲击由正转负并最后收敛于0,而对澳门的产出产生负溢出效应;美国量化宽松政策对这四个地区的物价均构成正向冲击,而且对中国内地和台湾的冲击更加明显.     

推动深港高科技合作

A.深港高科技合作的可行性在深港两地长期的经贸合作中,逐渐形成了一种你中有我、我中有你的分工合作和相互依存的紧密联系.充分利用深圳背靠内地、紧邻香港的区位优势,完全可以把内地的科技人才和科技成果优势与香港的资金、信息、市场优势结合起来,推进深港优势互补,发展高科技合作,形成科技成果产业化的转化基地,从而推动深港两地工业向高科技产业转化.     

CEPA实施后发挥香港金融业优势的探讨

香港历来被誉为国际金融、贸易、服务、物流和旅游中心,而金融中心处于核心地位。香港金融业历史悠久、优势显著,主要优势体现在拥有完善有效的金融制度,包括法治、有效监管、高素质的金融人才及自由资讯流通。CEPA为香港金融业发展提供了新的重要发展机遇。发挥香港金融业优势,促进香港和内地金融业共同发展,是提升内地金融业服务水平、满足内地高度发展的制造业服务需求,提高我国     

基于HP滤波法的我国人均GDP增长速度周期波动研究

本文通过对1990年至2015年剔除价格影响因素的我国人均GDP增长速度的分析,利用HP滤波法分解出我国人均GDP增长速度的循环因素,并在此基础上表征人均GDP增速周期与我国经济、政策、文化的关联,发现我国的经济政策和世界市场经济的波动对我国人均GDP增速有重大影响.建议我国在制定经济政策时能从长远出发、全面衡量利弊,在应对国际市场经济波动方面能提早预测、准备更加充分.     

正确认识GDP指标 实现经济又快又好发展

2006年是“十一五”规划的开局之年，全国各省区市GDP快速增长的“成绩单”令人瞩目。据悉，上海2006年GDP首次跨越万亿关，预计将超过10300亿元。广州市2006年的地区生产总值将达到6236亿元，按照现行汇率和户籍人口计算，人均GDP将超过11000美元，成为中国内地第一个跨入人均GDP过万美元的城市。     

粤港澳

香港投资推广署:愿助内地企业拓海外市场"善用香港优势,开拓海外市场"投资推广研讨会在吉林省长春市举行。香港投资推广署署长贾沛年表示,香港的优势在于可以作为内地企业寻求海外市场的平台,希望包括吉林在内的内地企业能利用此平台"走出去"。     

香港社会对内地自由行及入境旅游激增的情绪反应

为摆脱亚洲金融危机及经济衰退,香港政府于2003年推出针对内地游客"自由行"政策,促进了香港旅游业及相关产业的发展。然而,因内地游客的大量涌入,加之政策不匹配,导致香港交通拥挤、物价上涨、抢购奶粉和水货走私等矛盾激化,使其陷入对内地游客自由行爱恨纠结的窘境。基于旅游社会经济影响理论,依据1998—2014年相关数据和资料,分析了内地游客激增对香港经济社会的影响。从正效应来看:内地游客每增长1%,香港入境旅游人数增长1.16%,入境旅游收入增长1.39%,零售业销售额增长1.02%,就业率提高0.19%,GDP提高0.24%,极大推动了香港经济的增长;从负效应来看:由于两地产品质量和价格的差异,抢购奶粉、水货走私矛盾加剧,"双非"产妇问题凸显,物价指数飙升,交通压力增大,内地游客每增加1%,港铁客运增加0.17%,物价指数上升0.75%。研究为寻找有效措施解决其负面影响,促进两地旅游互动的正常化和可持续发展提供借鉴。     

城市土地利用政策——以香港、深圳为例

土地作为城市的基本构成要素,是城市发展的重要载体。土地利用政策决定着城市土地利用的动态变化。同时该政策的制定又受到社会发展阶段、经济水平等其他因素的影响。研究中国深圳特区和香港两个国际化大都市在不同的发展历程下城市土地利用政策的变化。对于其他城市的发展具有借鉴意义。文章对两座城市所经历的土地利用政策进行深刻剖析．结果发现香港占总面积24％的建成区（住宅区占总面积的7％）容纳了700多万的居住人口,并且人均生产总值30041．43美元。其郊野面积及非建筑占总面积的76％。这样高密度、高效率同时又为城市的可持续发展保留大量的有待开发的土地资源,其城市土地利用政策,值得世界其他城市借鉴。而深圳作为中国改革开放城市发展的成功典范,到2009年,其建设土地占特区总面积的32．8％,容纳了超过331万居住人口．其人均生产总值19760．80美元。说明深圳特区的土地利用的经济效益远远达不到香港水平,城市建筑面积在短时间内的大肆扩张。也说明深圳经济的增长是以大量的土地投入作支撑。土地的空间利用效益不高,不利于城市的可持续发展。     

Impact of US monetary policy rate shock and other external shocks on the Hong Kong economy: A factor‐augmented vector autoregression approach

This paper uses the factor‐augmented vector autoregression framework to study the impact on the Hong Kong economy of the diverging monetary policies by the Fed, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan as well as the slowdown of the Mainland economy. The empirical results show that shocks in US monetary policy rate mainly affect interest rate‐sensitive sectors in Hong Kong and that monetary easing from the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan somewhat offsets the impact of tightening of the Fed. The transmission of external shocks is through trade and capital markets. Real variables such as real GDP growth and the unemployment rate are more sensitive to the economic slowdown in Mainland China. It is estimated that the combined effect of the four external shocks will on average lower Hong Kong's quarterly GDP growth by 0.6 percentage points and quarterly inflation by 0.2 percentage points in the first four quarters. However, Hong Kong's financial stability, particularly with regard to loan quality, banks’ capital and liquidity, is well maintained by macroprudential policies, suggesting that Hong Kong's financial system is resilient to external shocks.     

The Impact of the China Factor on the pre-1997 Hong Kong Economy: a macroeconometric analysis

After the reunification of Hong Kong and China in 1997, Hong Kong is assured of a high degree of autonomy by the Basic Law. However, there remains some worry about the territory's economic viability and financial stability. Whether Chinese policies and China's remarkable growth momentum could continue to boost Hong Kong's prosperity has become an issue of concern. As the Chinese economic reform proceeds, the ‘China factor’ has been generating an increasing influence on the performance of the Hong Kong economy. Unfortunately, there have been very few rigorous quantitative analyses of this rapidly evolving development. To fill the gap, we have constructed a macroeconometric model of Hong Kong which takes into detailed account the linkages of the two economies including trade and capital flows. Estimation of the model incorporates error correction techniques to establish short-run dynamics and long-run equilibria. Our findings have identified crucial channels through which the ‘China factor’ has exerted impact on the Hong Kong economy. It is shown that the factor was not overwhelming up to the recent past, in terms of its stabilizing effects in the financial market and its stimulation on growth, although its influence may rise in the post-1997 era.     

Per capita output convergence across Asian countries: Evidence from covariate unit root test with an endogenous structural break

This study investigates long-run convergence of per capita output across ten Asian countries over 1960 to 2014 by taking advantage of possible economic growth determinants, which may be responsible for setting Asian countries on a long-term steady-state growth path. We simultaneously examine the presence of output convergence in the region, as well as the statistical significance of these economic growth determinants, by using a unit root test with a stationary covariate. In addition, the study allows for the presence of endogenous structural changes in the time series under investigation in order to capture sharp drops in per capita outputs, which may be brought about by influential economic events, such as serious economic slumps in domestic economies or the global financial crises in 1997–98 and 2008–09. The limiting distribution of the covariate unit root test that permits structural breaks is also derived. The results show significant evidence to support the convergence hypothesis. In particular, asymptotically absolute convergence holds among Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan. In addition, Thailand shows a convergence tendency in terms of asymptotically relative convergence toward Singapore. Malaysia, Indonesia, and India also turn out to converge toward Hong Kong in an asymptotically relative sense. Certain potential growth determinants, such as the trade/GDP ratio, inflation rate, government expenditure/GDP ratio, and quality of human capital, may help these countries achieve and maintain the long-run convergence process toward the reference countries in the region.     

The Impacts of WTO Membership on Economic/Trade Relations Among the Three Chinese Economies: China, Hong Kong and Taiwan

Based on CGE model simulations, the present study examines the impacts on the growth of GDP, social welfare, the terms of trade, the volume of trade and trade dependence, under alternative scenarios of a WTO with and without the membership of China and Taiwan. In general, the three Chinese economies, China, Hong Kong and Taiwan, will be benefited by China and Taiwan's WTO memberships. The world trade will increase by more than $130 billions in real terms ($63.6 billions of exports and $66.5 billions of imports). Among them, more than 60 percent will be shared by China, and 10 percent shared by Taiwan. The intermediate role of Hong Kong in trade and investment relations across the Taiwan Strait will diminish, Taiwan's trade dependence on China will increase, but China's trade dependence on Taiwan will decrease. However, trade flows across the Taiwan Strait will focus more on intra‐industry trade.     

International Trade and Growth Miracles: the Implications of Nonhomothetic Preferences

If the rate of saving increases with income then a low per capita level of the capital stock may be self‐sustaining. In these circumstances international trade may allow an economy to quickly increase its per capita capital stock in a self‐reinforcing “growth miracle” process. A labor‐abundant economy trading with a capital‐abundant economy will see its wage rate rise relative to autarky. This rise in the wage rate also increases the savings rate and so raises the following period’s per capita capital stock. In this way a low‐income economy may exhibit large and permanent increases in its level of GDP per capita after opening its markets to international trade.     

FDI对我国创业型经济发展的效应分析

运用面板门限模型验证了FDI对我国创业型经济影响的门限特征。结果显示,在全国范围内,区域人均GDP发展水平的变化会使FDI对创业型经济的影响表现出门限特性,即当区域人均GDP低于FDI发挥积极作用的门限时,FDI将会对创业型经济产生负面影响;而当区域人均GDP超过该门限后,FDI对创业型经济的发展将发挥越来越大的促进作用。     

港澳台—中国对外开放的独特优势

中国对外开放三十多年,经济发展速度之快举世瞩目。作为对外开放的典型标志,对外贸易和引进外资更是突飞猛进,成为世界贸易排名第二、发展中国家引进外资最多的经济体。中国对外开放之所以取得如此成就,港澳台地区功不可没,甚至可言,如果没有同文同种的新型工业化经济体港澳台与中国内地的密切经贸往来,中国对外开放将经历较长的探索阶段。港澳台地区是中国对外开放最早的也是迄今最主要的投资者,是中国承接国际产业转移最重要的推动者,也是中国进军国际市场的最重要中介与平台。无论是珠三角经济带还是长三角经济带,港澳台企业都是重要的支柱力量。中国最早的区域经济一体化协议,是与香港和澳门签署的,今后中国的自贸区战略,港澳台地区将成为核心。     

回归以来香港经济竞争力的变化状况及原因分析

本文首先从香港在世界经济竞争力的排名、在中国经济版图中的地位以及在时间序列上发展等角度剖析其经济竞争力的变化,然后利用主成分因子分析方法构造一个描述香港绝对经济竞争力的指数,量化分析香港经济竞争力的变化。结果表明香港金融、贸易和物流、旅游服务和专业服务竞争力在受到一系列事件的冲击下产生波动,但是总体上还是维持在一个较高水平,具有较强的竞争力。随后对香港经济竞争力变化的原因进行剖析,最后对如何提升香港经济竞争力给出了政策建议。