Consumer welfare effects of increased food and energy prices

In this study, the authors evaluated how much price changes in food and energy – two basic living expenditures competing for consumers’ budgets – would affect consumer welfare. We first estimated a US complete demand system to quantify the interdependent demand relationships among 11 categories of consumption expenditures. Among the estimates, the own price elasticities of both food and energy are relatively inelastic, a finding that explains the dynamics of the recent soaring food and energy prices. The estimated demand elasticities were then incorporated into the measurement of Hicksian compensating variation to analyse the consumer welfare effects of price changes in food and energy. The results indicated that an increase in food and energy prices would increase compensated expenditures or incur a substantial consumer welfare loss, creating an especially heavy burden for low income households.     

Uncertainty,inequality and consumption preferences in urban China

In this paper we present an uncertainty–inequality–consumption model and empirically investigate the effect of uncertainty on the consumption behaviors of urban households with varying levels of socio-economic status in China. We observe that the condition of households that suffered from socio-economic inequality with respect to total consumption, educational expenditures, medical expenditures, and durable consumption worsened relative to other households when faced with income uncertainty. Income uncertainty did not affect the housing consumption of households that suffered from socio-economic inequality, but it substantially decreased their ability to consume other durables. As a result of the introduction of the modern enterprise system and the reform of the housing distribution system, households with a member employed in a management position suffer larger shocks of income uncertainty in total consumption, educational expenditures, medical expenditures, and housing consumption relative to household with all members employed in worker positions in 2002. Uncertainty with respect to medical and educational expenditures had more substantial effects on the non-durables consumption of low-income households than that of other households in 2002.     

Mortgage payments and household consumption in urban China

By exploiting variation both in mortgage payoffs and mortgage interest-rate resets, we find that a decline in mortgage payments induces a significant increase in nondurable goods spending, even when households have substantial amounts of liquidity. Following mortgage payoff, households increase consumption expenditures by 61% of the original payment. In comparison, households increase consumption by only 36% in response to a transitory payment adjustment induced by interest rate changes. Households with a higher payment-to-income ratio have a significantly lower marginal propensity to consume (MPC). These results have practical implications for policy markers seeking to design consumption boosting policies and are important for understanding how changes in monetary policy may affect consumer spending patterns.     

Relative price shifts,economies of scale and poverty during economic transition1

Economic transition is associated with significant shifts in relative prices between private and public goods. If, as a result, public goods claim a larger share of total expenditures, economies of scale in consumption increase. We show how relative price changes might alter the welfare of different‐sized households in the short run and over time. We illustrate, for a selection of transition economies, that conventional poverty profiles are quite sensitive to assumptions made about economies of scale in consumption. In particular, the common view that large households with many children are poor relative to small households (such as those comprising the elderly) is shown to be highly non‐robust.     

Non-farm Income and Consumption Expenditures in Rural Bangladesh: Empirical Evidence from Multilevel Regression Modelling

This study examines the effects of non-farm income on household consumption expenditures in rural Bangladesh. A two-stage endogenous treatment effect model is built on data from a nationally representative Household Income Expenditure Survey (HIES) 2010 to control selection bias. The HIES follows a hierarchical data structure because the survey is based on two-stage stratified sampling. A multilevel mixed-effects linear regression model is used to capture the unobserved heterogeneity between clusters (PSUs) along with revealing important factors. Results reveal that non-farm income has a significant positive effect on household’s consumption expenditures and non-farm income recipient households spend about 29% more than their counterparts. In addition, higher level of per capita income, education, smaller family size and lower dependency ratio are found to be more effective in increasing consumption expenditures of rural households. Significant cluster-level variations are observed in the analyses. This study recommends that non-farm income generating activities should be encouraged among rural households as this would raise their consumption expenditures and hence, improve welfare and living standards among them.

     

Optimal monetary policy in the presence of food price subsidies

Food price subsidies are a prevalent means by which fiscal authorities may counteract food price volatility in middle-income countries (MIC). We develop a DSGE model for a MIC that captures this key channel of a policy induced price smoothing mechanism that is different to, yet in parallel with, the classic Calvo price stickiness approach, which can have consequential effects for monetary policy. We then use the model to address how the joint fiscal and monetary policy responds to an increase in inflation driven by a food price shock can affect welfare. We show that, in the presence of credit constrained households and households with a significant share of food expenditures, a coordinated reaction of fiscal and monetary policies via subsidized price targeting can improve aggregate welfare. Subsidies smooth prices and consumption, especially for credit constrained households, which can consequently result in an interest rate reaction less intensely with subsidized price targeting compared with headline price targeting.     

Variations in farm consumption and their relationship to income: an empirical investigation of Illinois farm households

Empirical tests of household consumption have yielded mixed results regarding the validity of the life cycle/permanent income (LCPI) hypothesis. A significant problem with such studies is the difficulty in finding sufficient micro-level data on household expenditures. By using the recent rich quantity of such data in the Farm Business Farm Management (FBFM) data for Illinois farms from 1995 to 2009, the study reported here for farm households should provide more consistent results regarding the LCPI hypothesis. Applying an empirical model based on the LCPI hypothesis, this article identifies the determinants of farm consumption and the relationship to income. This study provides evidence that current income changes are not significant in explaining the consumption changes of farm households, thus supporting the LCPI hypothesis for farm households.     

The Demand for Water by Single-Metered and Group-Metered Households

This paper examines water consumption in group-metered households. A utility-maximising model is developed in which the marginal price schedule is approximated by a polynomial function of water consumption. The model is modified to allow for an incentive for group-metered households to consume more water than if they were separately metered. This occurs if households do not expect their own increase in water consumption to be matched by other households sharing the meter, so that part of the marginal cost of water is shifted to other households. Estimates using Western Australian data are, however, unable to detect any significant effect of this kind, perhaps because the price response itself is small.     

On the distributional properties of household consumption expenditures: the case of Italy

In this paper we explore the statistical properties of the distributions of consumption expenditures for a large sample of Italian households in the period 1989–2004. Goodness-of-fit tests show that household aggregate (and age-conditioned) consumption distributions are not log-normal. Rather, their logs can be invariably characterized by asymmetric exponential-power densities. Departures from log-normality are mainly due to the presence of thick lower tails coexisting with upper tails thinner than Gaussian ones. The emergence of this irreducible heterogeneity in statistical patterns casts some doubts on the attempts to explain log-normality of household consumption patterns by means of simple models based on Gibrat’s Law applied to permanent income and marginal utility.     

Where did all the remittances go? Understanding the impact of remittances on consumption patterns in rural China

We focus on the impact of migrants’ remittances on consumption patterns in China. Using a large homogenous sample of rural households surveyed in 2001 and 2004, we find that remittances are spent on nonhousing consumption expenditures at the margin, virtually dollar-for-dollar, when we instrument remittances and local employed earnings using proxies of social networks. Our findings are robust to intra-household division of labour and to fixed-effect for the county in which the respondents are registered. These results imply that rural households largely take remittances as permanent income and are consistent with the prevalence of circular and repeat migration in China.     

Inequality,Debt Servicing and the Sustainability of Steady State Growth

We investigate the claim that the way in which debtor households service their debts matters for macroeconomic performance. A Kaleckian growth model is modified to incorporate working households who borrow to finance consumption that is determined, in part, by the desire to emulate the consumption patterns of more affluent households. The impact of this behavior on the sustainability of the growth process is then studied by means of a numerical analysis that captures various dimensions of income inequality. When compared with previous contributions to the literature, our results show that the way in which debtor households service their debt has both quantitative and qualitative effects on the economy's macrodynamics.     

Conspicuous consumption and “race”: Evidence from South Africa

A century ago, Thorstein Veblen introduced socially contingent consumption into the economic literature. This paper complements the scarce empirical literature by testing his conjecture on South African household data and finds that Black and Coloured households spend relatively more on visible consumption than comparable White households. Following the approach of Charles et al. (2009), this paper explores whether the differences in visible expenditures can be explained with a signaling model of status seeking. Moreover, it is assessed to which extent positional concerns motivate conspicuous consumption. Although the socially contingent share in visible consumption increases with income, different incentives to consume conspicuously seem to explain that, at every level of income, Black households spend relatively more on visible consumption than comparable White households. In contrast to the findings of Charles et al. (2009) where differential spending on conspicuous consumption can be found also within each group separately, the model's core hypothesis fails to hold within the group of White South Africans.     

Consumption smoothing in Russia

This paper uses panel data from rounds V–IX of the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS) to examine the extent to which households are able to protect their consumption from fluctuations in their income. It is found that consumption is only partially protected from idiosyncratic shocks to income with food consumption being better protected than non‐food consumption expenditures. This suggests that adjustments in non‐food expenditures may be an important component of the risk management tools of Russian households. The analysis also provides evidence on the extent and nature of the coping strategies adopted by households. It is demonstrated that households complement their self‐insurance strategies, of borrowing, adjusting their labour supply, and selling assets, with informal risk sharing arrangements with households within their community. An examination of the role of sample selection confirmed that these findings are quite robust to this potential source of bias. Furthermore, accounting for the role of measurement and imputation errors in the measure of household income revealed that OLS estimates may yield a misleading picture about the extent to which urban and rural households are insured from idiosyncratic income shocks. JEL classification: D1, R2, P5.     

Environmental defensive expenditures and households behaviour in Italy

The paper explores the role of Environmental Defensive Expenditures in the consumption behaviour of Italian households. Environmental Defensive Expenditures are not borne to increase households' welfare, but to prevent or avoid the effects of a worsening environmental quality. The literature on environmental accounting argues that economic growth in industrialized countries is accompanied by an increasing load of defensive activities that may lead to a reorientation of consumption behaviour. In this work this hypothesis is tested using annual data on mean consumption expenditures of Italian households from 1985 to 1996. A complete system of demand is estimated and short-run price elasticities of demand for Defensive Expenditures are calculated. The complete system of demand functions is specified using the Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System proposed by Banks, Blundell and Lewbel. Results show that there is very low substitution between the demand for the six aggregate goods in which total expenditure is here divided and the Environmental Defensive Expenditures. Thus it seems that an increase in Environmental Defensive Expenditures, driven by a change in environmental quality, would not lead to a change in the consumption pattern, at least as far as Italian households are concerned.     

INFLATION INEQUALITY IN THE UNITED STATES

Different spending patterns across households and differences in price increases across goods and services lead to unequal levels of inflation faced by different households. In this paper we measure the degree of inequality in inflation across U.S. households for the period 1987–2000. The broad picture that emerges from our results is that over our whole sample period there are substantial differences in the inflation experiences across U.S. households. We find that the cost of living increases were generally higher for the elderly, in large part because of their health care expenditures, and that the cost of living of poor households is most sensitive to the, historically large, fluctuations in gasoline prices. Still, when looking at the whole population, we find that individual households that are confronted with high inflation in one year do not generally face high inflation in the subsequent year as well.     

A double-hurdle approach to modelling tobacco consumption in Italy

This article analyzes the determinants of tobacco expenditures for a sample of Italian households. A Box–Cox double-hurdle model adjusted for heteroscedasticity is estimated to account for separate individual decisions concerning smoking participation and tobacco consumption and to correct for nonnormality in the bivariate distribution of the error terms. Nested univariate and bivariate models are found to be excessively restrictive, supporting the adequacy of a generalized specification. Estimation results show that consumption decisions are significantly affected by income and demographic characteristics. In particular, income positively impacts tobacco expenditure, while participation probability substantially declines as age increases. The existence of significant gender differences in both smoking participation and tobacco consumption patterns is found, while high education and white-collar occupation reduces the likelihood to smoke and tobacco expenditure levels. Single adult households have a lower probability of smoking initiation even if, conditional on smoking, they consume more. Finally, complementarity between tobacco and alcohol beverages suggests the necessity of joint public health strategies.     

The impact of digital finance on household consumption: Evidence from China

Using panel data from the China Household Finance Survey (CHFS) in 2013, 2015, and 2017 and the digital inclusive finance index developed by Peking University, this study examined impacts of the digital inclusive finance on household consumption and explored its mechanisms. Results suggest that the digital inclusive finance could promote households consumption. A heterogeneity analysis showed that households with fewer assets, lower income, less financial literacy and in third- and fourth-tier cities experienced larger facilitating effects of digital finance on consumption compared to their counterparts. For consumption categories, digital finance was positively correlated with food, clothing, house maintenance, medical care, and education and entertainment expenditures. In terms of consumption structure, digital finance mainly promoted the recurring household expenditures rather than the non-recurring expenditures. Further analyses based on the mediating model found that online shopping, digital payment, obtainment of online credit, purchase of financing products on the internet and business insurance, were the main mediating variables through which digital finance affected household consumption.     

Cross-border commuting and consuming: an empirical investigation

This article contributes to our understanding of cross-border activity in general and the determinants of cross-border trade in particular by focusing on the part of cross-border sales that arise due to work-related cross-border crossings of households. We analyse empirically how cross-border consumption expenditures vary across product and services categories as well as household characteristics using representative household survey data of cross-border commuters to Luxembourg. In total, these households spend an estimated 17% of their gross annual income across the border, contributing about 10% to the total household final consumption expenditure (HFCE) in Luxembourg. Cross-border expenditure is linked to individual- and household-related characteristics and to distance between home and work. Cross-border commuters systematically exploit arbitrage opportunities that arise because of existing price level (index) differences between the country of work and the country of residence.     

Exploring Alternative Measures of Welfare in the Absence of Expenditure Data

We consider an asset-based alternative to the standard use of expenditures in defining well-being and poverty. Our motivation is to see if there exist simpler and less demanding ways to collect data to measure economic welfare and rank households. This is particularly important in poor regions where there is limited capacity to collect consumption, expenditure and price data. We evaluate an index derived from a factor analysis on household assets using multipurpose surveys from several countries. We find that the asset index is a valid predictor of a crucial manifestation of poverty—child health and nutrition. Indicators of relative measurement error show that the asset index is measured as a proxy for long-term wealth with less error than expenditures. Analysts may thus prefer to use the asset index as an explanatory variable or as a means of mapping economic welfare to other living standards and capabilities such as health and nutrition.     

Estimation of household preferences for long distance telecommunications carrier

The competitive environment in long-distance telecommunications markets changed considerably with the divestiture of AT&T in 1982. A variety of providers appeared, offering myriad services. In this environment, customer selection of preferred long-distance carrier became more complicated and more important.In this paper, we analyze and quantify the determinants of this choice. To our knowledge, this focus is distinct. By contrast, the literature to date has analyzed the behavioral determinants of calling volume (local and long-distance) and the selection of local service options.In our analysis, we allow the alternative carriers to differ in terms of tariffs, reputation, quality, access, and specialized customer services. We quantify the interactive effects of these carrier attributes and customer demographics upon the selection of carrier. Price and income elasticities are estimated. A distinguishing feature of our analysis is that it examines behavioral differences among households in equal-access and unequal-access areas. We find that households assured of the convenience of 1 + dialling for their chosen carrier in equal-access areas display more rational and sophisticated decision making. On the other hand, households in unequal-access areas display greater status quo effects in their decision making.