Part‐Peasants: Incomplete Rural–Urban Labour Migration in China

The institutional settings in China, including the land allocation system and the household registration system, lead to a rural–urban labour migration pattern that differs from that in other countries. Individual peasants' labour is often split (typically over different times of the year) into two or more parts as a result of institutional factors. Individuals work both as peasants on the land and as temporary migrant workers in urban areas (or in rural non‐agricultural sectors). We examine this issue using province‐level panel data. The present study provides a new interpretation of the phenomenon of labour shortages in coastal cities and rising rural migrant wages in China in recent years, and discusses whether the Lewisian turning point has been reached. Under part migration, the rural labour supply to urban areas is smaller than would be the case with full migration of workers to urban areas, so that the Lewisian turning point occurs earlier. This finding has important policy implications for China's future development.     

Simulating soil fertility and poverty dynamics in Uganda: A bio-economic multi-agent systems approach

Declining soil fertility and increasing rural poverty are major problems facing sub-Saharan agriculture. Bio-economic modeling has been used to analyze the complex interaction between ecological sustainability and rural poverty as well as to explore policy options promoting sustainable development. This paper shows that these models can be further advanced by adopting an agent-based modeling approach. This gives a more realistic representation of diversity in socioeconomic and biophysical terms, allows local interaction between households, and can yield an ex-ante assessment of the distributional consequences of policy intervention. This paper describes the modeling approach and illustrates it with an empirical application to two village communities in the Lake Victoria Crescent of Uganda. It is shown how the model system can be calibrated with and validated against empirical data. The model is used to analyze the potential effect of short-term credit, mineral fertilizer, and improved maize seed on poverty and sustainability. Simulation results suggest substantial reductions in poverty although the incidence of poverty would remain high and these innovations alone would have little effect on the long-term ecological sustainability of the system.     

Shocks, Policy Reforms and Pro-Poor Growth in Bolivia: A Simulation Analysis

This paper analyzes how major external shocks and policy reforms affect Bolivia’s ability to achieve pro‐poor growth. Employing a recursive‐dynamic CGE model, it considers three different scenarios: an optimistic baseline scenario; a more realistic scenario that accounts for two important negative external shocks (declining capital inflows and El Niño); and a scenario that captures the combined effect of the shocks and two major reform projects (development of the gas sector and deregulation of the urban labor market). It turns out that the shocks are likely to impair Bolivia’s medium‐term development prospects, leading to marked increases in both urban and rural poverty. If the reform projects were implemented, the poverty increase caused by the shocks would be more than offset for urban households, but reinforced for rural households.     

Modeling migration barriers in a two-sector framework: A welfare analysis of the hukou reform in China

The present paper constructs a two-sector labor market model for China featuring endogenous internal labor mobility and heterogeneous costs of migration induced by the Chinese household registration system (hukou). The main novelty of our model is to divide migrants into those with more family responsibilities and those with fewer to explain the empirical fact that almost all young people with rural hukou have migrated to cities, while people who stay in the rural area are older and have more family responsibilities. We conduct two policy experiments using the model: one experiment concerned with reducing costs of living for younger migrants and the other for older migrants. The main results are that the first policy would unambiguously increase social welfare, while the reduced-cost policy for older migrants would reduce poverty and inequality although some urban natives may experience a wage reduction.     

The Broadband Access Market: Competition,Uniform Pricing and Geographical Coverage

In this paper we analyze the market for broadband access. A key feature of this market is that it is considerably more expensive to connect consumers in rural locations than in urban locations. We show that while competition increases welfare compared to monopoly when prices are free to differ across locations, the opposite may be true if there is a requirement of uniform pricing across locations. Furthermore, we show that given uniform pricing, the regulator may increase consumer surplus as well as profit by requiring a higher regional coverage than the market outcome.     

A proposal for social pricing of water supply in Côte d'Ivoire

We consider the design of a nonlinear social tariff for residential water in Côte d'Ivoire, which is a case of a monopolistic private operator supplying a population of heterogeneous consumers. The proposed optimal tariff includes an initial “social” block with a low unit price, and higher consumption blocks with a monopoly pricing rule. This optimal nonlinear tariff is calibrated using econometric estimates of a panel-data residential water demand equation. Welfare changes associated with moving from the actual tariff to approximations of the optimal pricing system are computed under different tariff scenarios. We find that gains in consumer welfare would outweigh losses in producer surplus in a majority of Ivorian local communities.     

Ecosystem services: Foundations for a new rural–urban compact

The traditional rural–urban compact, now almost ten thousand years old, whereby the countryside sent products and people to the city in exchange for the city's products, services and governance is not working anymore. The rural population is increasingly marginalized and natural environments are increasingly destroyed. A new rural–urban compact needs to arise where cities acknowledge and pay for environmental sustainability. In this new rural–urban compact there would be more employment opportunities and more income coming to the rural areas, and the cities would benefit from a sustainable supply of rural products and ecosystem services provided by restored rural environments. This paper describes why this is important and provides several ideas on how to implement programs.     

Average-cost pricing: Some evidence and implications

We present new survey evidence on pricing behavior for more than 14,000 European firms, and study its macroeconomic implications. Among firms that are price setters, roughly 75% respond that their prices are set as a markup on total costs, a business practice termed “full cost pricing”. Only 25% set prices as markups over variable or marginal costs. Moreover, using industry data for the U.S., we find that the correlation between changes in output prices and changes in variable input prices is significantly lower when fixed costs are likely to be more important.Since our results are similar to the findings in the classic and controversial paper of Hall and Hitch (1939) and subsequent survey evidence, we believe it worth studying the implications of full cost pricing for macroeconomics. We first propose a problem for the firm where full cost pricing can arise as optimizing behavior. We embed this problem, featuring an occasionally binding constraint, into a simple general equilibrium model. We show that when the model is hit by a shock that makes the constraint binding, the response of endogenous variables is amplified significantly more than it would be under the unconstrained regime.     

发展中国家的普遍服务政策

该文构建非对称信息模型分析普遍服务政策问题,其中政府对企业在农村提供服务的边际成本具有非对称信息.该文对区别定价和统一定价两种情形进行了对比分析.在实施区别定价时,不完全信息将提高农村地区的资费水平,并且降低相应的网络覆盖面积;而在实施统一定价时,农村地区的定价可能降低,但却是以网络覆盖的减少为代价的.该文的政策结论是:在实施普遍服务政策时,需要综合考虑网络投资的激励和用户承受能力.     

Monetary Union and the Transatlantic and Social Dimensions of Europe's Crisis

With a comparative case study of the social welfare systems of an urban and a rural county in the United States, I explore variation in local welfare implementation by examining organisational strategies. Service provision in the rural county is less diverse and less effective than in the urban county due to place-based factors; however, in the urban county more financial resources and capacity translates into more regulation of the clientele as well as resistance to neoliberal practices. Organisations whose existence depends upon benevolent elites adapt to their funding requirements by regulating clients of social services, including tactics of surveillance, elaborate verification, and restriction. The enforcement of low-wage work that is bracketed by national policy is highly constraining, but can be challenged through a welfare organisation when the right conditions are present for an empowered grassroots approach. These findings are situated within the more general literature on the changing governance of welfare.     

Universal service obligations in LDCs: The effect of uniform pricing on infrastructure access

This paper develops a model to analyze the impacts of asymmetric information on optimal universal service policy in the public utilities of developing countries. Optimal universal service policy is implemented using two regulatory instruments: pricing and network investment. Under discriminatory pricing asymmetric information leads to a higher price and smaller network in the rural area than under full information. Under uniform pricing the price is also lower but the network is even smaller. In addition, under both pricing regimes not only the firm but also taxpayers have incentives to collude with the regulator.     

中国农民工发展趋势与展望

本文在对中国农民工群体的发展趋势以及影响农民工问题解决的选择性因素进行系统分析的基础上,构建了农民工城乡流动和人口城市沉淀模型,描绘了农民工的人口城市沉淀曲线,指出了解决农民工问题的历史过程和基本思路。本文的基本结论是:农民工问题是个战略问题,将伴随我国现代化的全过程,并将伴随现代化基本实现而终结。农民工亦工亦农、亦城亦乡,流动就业,逐步向非农产业和城市转移,这种现象将长期存在。解决农民工问题要持城乡统筹方略,实行工业反哺农业、城市支持农村的方针;要以体制改革和政策创新为动力,逐步消除城乡二元结构;要以人为本,公平对待,构建解决农民工问题的社会支持体系。     

Efficiency, equity, and sustainability in a water quantity-quality optimization model in the Rio Grande basin

Integrated hydrologic and economic optimization models at the basin scale provide a framework for policy design, implementation, and evaluation in water-stressed basins. Despite the considerable potential that basin scale analysis offers, few basin-wide studies have examined tradeoffs among efficiency, equity, and sustainability when analyzing the design of water resource programs. This paper develops a basin scale framework to identify hydrologic and economic impacts of alternative water pricing programs that comply with environmental regulations for protecting water quality. Key issues are examined that confront integrated hydroeconomic basin models: linking water and economics, spatial and temporal scale integration, and quantity-quality relationships. Economic efficiency is defined and measured for each of two urban water pricing arrangements that comply with urban water quality protection regulations. Alternative measures of equity are analyzed in both spatial and temporal dimensions. Sustainability is evaluated physically for protecting the water supply and financially for long-term revenue viability. The approach is illustrated from results of a dynamic nonlinear programming optimization model of water use in North America's Rio Grande basin. The model optimizes the net present value of the basin's total economic benefits subject to constraints on equity, sustainability, hydrology, and institutions. It is applied to assess impacts of a two-tiered pricing program that complies with recently implemented drinking water quality standards for the basin's two largest U.S. cities: Albuquerque, New Mexico, and El Paso, Texas. Results suggest that two-tiered pricing of urban water supply has considerable potential to perform well in meeting the aims of efficiency, equity, and sustainability. Findings provide a general framework for designing water pricing programs that comply with environmental regulations.     

The gender wage gap among China’s rural–urban migrants

In this study, we present new empirical evidence on gender wage differences among rural–urban migrants in China. We use a data set that includes migrants residing in urban communities and those living at their workplaces—the latter were not included in the previous studies. We find that the gender wage gap among migrants is 16%–18% and does not differ between migrants living at workplaces and those living in urban communities. However, gender differences in industry sorting play a more important role for migrants living at their workplaces, whereas differences in education and experience are of importance for those living in urban communities. Overall, differences in the returns to characteristics are the main driver of the gender wage gap, especially for migrants living in urban communities.     

Competing risk model for mobile phone service

Since the Korean government implemented the “Number Portability System” in the domestic mobile communications market, mobile communication companies have been striving to hold onto existing customers and at the same time to attract new customers. This paper presents a competing risk model that considers the characteristics of a customer in order to predict the customer's mean residual life under the “Number Portability System.” Competing causes for churning considered are pricing policy, quality of communication, and usefulness of service. It has been observed that the customers who pay more are less sensitive to pricing policy; younger people are less sensitive than older people to the change of the quality of communication; and women are more sensitive than men in terms of usefulness of service. We expect that the result of this study can be used as a guideline for effective management of mobile phone customers under the number portability system.     

Adopting a Unit Pricing System for Municipal Solid Waste: Policy and Socio-Economic Determinants

Concerns about the environmental and aesthetic damages of municipal solid waste pollution have triggered policy reform at all levels of government. As part of this effort, public officials are integrating market-based policy instruments such as unit pricing into their solid waste plans. Despite the economic advantages of unit pricing, constituency response has been mixed and hence adoption rates have been below expectations. If the associated gains are to be realized, public officials must identify the key factors that influence this decision. To that end, this research empirically estimates the determinants of unit pricing adoption at the community level of analysis. Based on data for all cities and towns in Massachusetts, the results indicate that demographics, socio-economic attributes, fiscal capacity, and policy instruments influence this decision.     

Technical efficiency of small scale farmers: An application of the stochastic frontier production function to rural and urban farmers in Ondo State,Nigeria

Abstract

The main objective of this study was to estimate empirically the technical efficiency of rural and urban small-scale farmers in Ondo State, Nigeria, using the stochastic frontier production function. With the rapid urbanization being currently experienced in Nigeria, the socio-economic and the farming environment in both the rural and urban centres are undergoing transformation. This study involved collection and analysis of data on 200 food crop farmers from rural and urban centres in Ondo state of Nigeria. The results of analysis show that there are wide differences in the socio-economic and production inputs of the farmers from rural and urban centres. While farmers from rural centres have relatively larger farms, the urban farmers have better access to production inputs, especially, fertilizer. However, rural farmers, with a mean technical efficiency of 0.66 are found to be more technically efficient than urban farmers, who have a mean technical efficiency of 0.57. There is a wide confidence interval around the point estimates of the technical efficiency scores. Level of education, farming experience and land are found to have negative effects on technical inefficiency of both rural and urban farms. The marginal effect of inefficiency variables is, however, found to be highest for education among both rural and urban farms.     

制度变迁、地方政府行为与城乡收入差距 ——来自中国省级面板数据的经验证据

本文采用1997-2009年面板数据的变截距及变系数模型,利用控制地区经济开放程度、产业结构变迁、城市化率等因素,对中国30个省市的制度变迁、地方政府支出决策与城乡收入差距之间的关系进行实证分析。结果显示：就全国而言,制度变迁、地方政府对经济活动的干预和地方政府投资性支出均与城乡收入差距呈正相关,而地方政府保障性支出则与城乡收入差距呈负相关;就地区而言,大部分地区在市场化过程中的制度变迁、地方政府投资性支出扩大了城乡收入差距,而半数以上的地区其政府支出规模及其内部保障性支出对城乡收入差距的缩小则有一定促进作用,但不同地区其影响呈现一定的差异性。其政策含义在于,我国在推进市场化进程的同时还要兼顾公平与效率,加强地方政府对收入不平等的调节作用,完善地方财政支出结构特别是社会保障体系,以此来缩小城乡收入差距。     

Sustainable development of Shandong peninsula Peninsula urban agglomeration: a scenario analysis based on water shortage and water environment changes

China has experienced a rapid urbanization since late 1970s. The great increase of urban population has resulted in various environmental changes, of which urban water shortage and water environment problems have occurred in most cities, especially in the rapidly developing urban agglomerations in the eastern coastal region. This research, taking Shandong Peninsula Urban Agglomeration (SPUA) as a case study area, analyzes the urbanization expansion in the last decades, discusses the water shortage and water environment changes following the rapid economic development and urbanization such as groundwater sinking in the urban and plain area, sea water and salt-water intrusion in the coastal cities, water pollution overspreading and "water ecosystem degradation, and puts forwards some strategies for sustainability in populous regions with severe water shortage. Some countermeasures for sustainable development of SPUA are put forward, such as modern water resources inter-city networks to regulate water resource between cities, adjusting urbanization policy and urban scale planning to promote the development of small towns and medium sized cities, optimizing urban industry structure by restricting high water consumption enterprises and stimulating the growth of tertiary industry, improving water use efficient to reduce freshwater consumption and wastewater discharge, introducing economic means to water pricing and water management system. and restoring ecological conditions to strengthen the natural water-making capacity.     

The influence of rapid rural-urban migration on Korean national fertility levels

A autoregressive model is applied to personal migration and pregnancy histories recorded in the 1974 Korean World Fertility Survey to assess the adaptation effect of rural-urban migration on migrant fertility and national fertility levels. The objective of this study is to provide policy makers in developing nations with a model that will enable them to quantify the effects of rapid urbanization on the fertility level of migrant women and thus on national fertility levels. The fertility of rural-urban migrants is on the average lower than that of rural stayers; this study supports the adaptation hypothesis and indicates that rural-urban migrants experienced a significant reduction in 5 year fertility rates from those of comparable rural stayers after migration to the urban area. In addition, the city specific effects of migration on fertility are of considerable importance; migrants to larger cities adapt more over their lifetime than migrants to smaller cities. The completed adaptation by postmarital, rural-urban migrants is largest among migrants who are least educated. The autoregressive model controls the fertility level at the beginning of the observed period; it is assumed that this is a proxy for family size preferences. Results show that the completed fertility of migrant women with less than 4 years of school is 1.9 children fewer than that of comparable rural stayers, 1 child fewer for migrant women with 4 to 6 years of school, and .8 children fewer for migrant women with at least 6 years of school. For Korea, the overall effects on national fertility of rural-urban migration represent a reduction of 1.79 births per woman for the 1965-1970 period; it is estimated that the 945,400 rural-urban women migrants of this period would avoid, on average, 71,300 births annually for their expected average 24 years of urban life.