能源回弹效应最新研究进展:理论与方法

能源回弹效应是指能源效率提高并未达到预期节能效果的经济现象,其对能源、经济与环境系统协调与可持续发展产生了不利影响。自“Khazzoom-Brookes(K-B)假说”提出以来,学术界试图利用新古典经济学及新兴经济学分支学科理论探究回弹效应的机制,揭示回弹效应的影响因素,旨在完善回弹效应的分析框架,为回弹效应的实证检验奠定坚实的理论与方法论基础。基于此,本文首先在宏观和微观两个层面上总结了回弹效应的内涵界定,阐明了不同界定形式的适用性;然后依据回弹效应发展脉络,系统梳理了回弹效应在新古典经济学框架下的理论机制,以及在新兴经济学分支学科视角下的拓展性阐释;进而,对回弹效应的研究方法进行了归纳,探讨了不同方法的适用范围、优缺点及其修正或改进;最后,总结了能源回弹效应研究中存在的问题并对未来需要关注的方向进行了展望。     

Estimating direct and indirect rebound effects for U.S. households with input–output analysis Part 1: Theoretical framework

This is the first part of a two-part paper providing an analytical model of the indirect rebound effect, given a direct rebound estimate, that integrates consumer demand theory with the embodied energy of household spending from environmentally-extended input–output analysis. The second part applies the model developed in part one to simulate the direct and indirect rebound for the average U.S. household in terms of primary energy, CO₂e, NO_x, and SO₂ emissions and for energy efficiency investments in electricity, natural gas, or gasoline services. Part one provides a critical review of the largely independent economic and industrial ecology literatures on the indirect rebound. By studying the two-goods case and the n-goods case, we demonstrate that the indirect rebound is bounded by the consumer budget constraint, and inversely related to the direct rebound. We also compare the common proportional spending and income elasticity spending assumptions with our model of cross-price elasticities including both substitution and income effects for the indirect rebound. By assuming zero incremental capital costs and the same embodied energy as conventional technologies for efficient appliances, we model an upper bound of the indirect rebound. Future work should also consider the increase in consumer welfare possible through the rebound effect.     

Technological progress and sustainable development: what about the rebound effect?

Sustainability concepts that rest on the idea of resource- or energy-efficiency improvements due to technological progress tend to overestimate the potential saving effects because they frequently ignore the behavioral responses evoked by technological improvements. Efficiency improvements also affect the demand for resources and energy, and often an increase in efficiency by 1% will cause a reduction in resource use that is far below 1% or, sometimes, it can even cause an increase in resource use. This phenomenon is commonly labeled the rebound effect, which is well-known among energy economists, but never attracted much attention in ecological economics. The paper starts with the traditional neoclassical analysis of the rebound effect in a partial equilibrium framework that concentrates on the demand of one particular energy service such as mobility or room temperature. It also provides an overview of some of the main empirical studies based on this model that mostly confirm the existence of the rebound effect, but are controversial about its actual importance. However, we have to go beyond the neoclassical single-service model in order to take care of the variety of possible feedback affecting energy use. The paper presents two important expansions of the single-service model in order to show the potential relevance of the rebound effect to ecological economics. First, it is shown that in a multi-services model it proves to be difficult to make general statements about the relevance of the rebound effect. In this case, the overall effect of an increase in energy efficiency on total energy use depends on the on the assumptions about the substitutability between the services considered and the direction of the income effect. Second, the paper also tries to take care of the fact that changes in resource use or energy use are frequently just ‘side-effects’ of other forms of technological progress. Especially technological change of a time-saving nature can have a large influence on energy use as many time-saving devices (for example, faster modes of transport) require an increase in energy consumption that is frequently reinforced by a ‘rebound effect with respect to time’. This effect will be especially strong when wages are high and, at the same time, energy prices are low, as is currently the case in most industrialized countries. Consequently, the paper also provides a strong argument for the introduction of energy taxes.     

ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH

Recent contributions by Brookes (1990), Saunders (1992), and Inhaber and Saunders (1994) argue that cost-effective improvements in energy efficiency may, in the long run, lead energy use to grow more rapidly than it would in a world of fixed technologies. Since efficiency improvements may be viewed as a form of technological change that both reduces the effective cost of energy services and stimulates economic activity, energy demand may, under some circumstances, rise even as energy productivity improves. This paper examines this hypothesis using a simple model that distinguishes the roles of energy and energy services in production activities. In this model, improved energy efficiency can-not give rise to increased energy use unless: (i) energy costs dominate the total cost of energy services and (ii) expenditures on energy services constitute a large share of economic activity. Since neither of these assumptions is empirically plausible, the paper concludes that energy efficiency improvements will yield long-run reductions in energy use under the assumptions of the model.     

Estimating direct and indirect rebound effects for U.S. households with input–output analysis. Part 2: Simulation

This is the second part of a two-part paper that integrates economic and industrial ecology methods to estimate the indirect rebound effect from residential energy efficiency investments. We apply the model developed in part one to simulate the indirect rebound, given an estimate of the direct rebound, using a 2002 environmentally-extended input–output model and the 2004 Consumer Expenditure Survey (in 2002$) for the U.S. We find an indirect rebound of 5–15% in primary energy and CO₂e emissions, assuming a 10% direct rebound, depending on the fuel saved with efficiency and household income. The indirect rebound can be as high as 30–40% in NO_x or SO₂ emissions for efficiency in natural gas services. The substitution effect modeled in part one is small in most cases, and we discuss appropriate applications for proportional or income elasticity spending assumptions. Large indirect rebound effects occur as the U.S. electric grid becomes less-carbon intensive, in households with large transportation demands, or as energy prices increase. Even in extreme cases, there is limited evidence for backfire, or a rebound effect greater than 100%. Enacting pollution taxes or auctioned permits that internalize the externalities of energy use would ensure that rebound effects unambiguously increase consumers' welfare.     

Energy Conservation More Effective With Rebound Policy

This article sketches the problem of indirect energy use effects, also known as rebound, of energy conservation. There is widespread support for energy conservation, especially when it is voluntary, as this seems a cheap way to realize environmental and energy-climate goals. However, this overlooks the phenomenon of rebound. The topic of energy rebound has mainly attracted attention from energy analysts, but has been surprisingly neglected in environmental economics, even though economists generally are concerned with indirect or economy-wide impacts of technical change and policies. This paper presents definitions and interpretations of energy and environmental rebound, as well as four fundamental reasons for the existence of the rebound phenomenon. It further offers the most complete list of rebound pathways or mechanisms available in the literature. In addition, it discusses empirical estimates of rebound and addresses the implications of uncertainties and difficulties in assessing rebound. Suggestions are offered for strategies and public policies to contain rebound. It is advised that rebound evaluation is an essential part of environmental policy and project assessments. As opposed to earlier studies, this paper stresses the relevance of the distinction between energy conservation resulting from autonomous demand changes and from efficiency improvements in technology/equipment. In addition, it argues that rebound is especially relevant for developing countries.     

Energy efficiency promotion backfires under cap-and-trade

Major climate-cum-energy policies and respective impact projections rest on the widespread belief that increased energy efficiency can be equated with savings in energy use and emissions. This belief is flawed. Due to the rebound effect emissions savings from energy efficiency improvements will be generally less than what is technically feasible, or even be reversed. By means of an analytical general equilibrium model we demonstrate the latter to be true in a case that is both stark and relevant: if electricity generation is subject to a cap-and-trade scheme with partial coverage, increased efficiency of electric devices leads unambiguously to increased carbon emissions. The result implies that a proper distinction between the energy rebound and the carbon rebound is warranted, and that public policy must carefully consider the interactions between energy efficiency promotion and carbon pricing.     

内外部能源价差对我国工业部门能源效率的影响研究

引入能源价格的Cobb-Douglas成本函数,利用能源效率的经验决定模型对影响我国工业部门能源效率的因素进行实证分析,特别是利用蛉回归对我国工业部门36个二位数行业进行行业分析并在此基础上运用面板数据模型对我国整个工业部门的能源效率影响因素的作用力度进行测量.结果显示:行业产值、技术水平、产业结构和能源消费结构构成工业部门能源效率的直接原因,同时内外部能源价差通过其他因素对能源效率的作用明显.总体来看,产业结构的优化升级以及能源消费结构的调整对于能源效率的提高尚有很大的空间,实践中应强调能源价格政策在提高能源效率和节能减排过程中的积极意义.     

Technology variation vs. R&D uncertainty: What matters most for energy patent success?

R&D is an uncertain activity with highly skewed outcomes. Nonetheless, most recent empirical studies and modeling estimates of the potential of technological change focus on the average returns to research and development (R&D) for a composite technology and contain little or no information about the distribution of returns to R&D – which could be important for capturing the range of costs associated with climate change mitigation policies – by individual technologies. Through an empirical study of patent citation data, this paper adds to the literature on the outcomes of energy R&D by focusing on the behavior of the most successful innovations for six energy technologies, allowing us to determine whether uncertainty or differences in technologies matter most for success. We highlight two key results. First, we compare the results from an aggregate analysis of six energy technologies to technology-by-technology results. Our results show that existing work that assumes diminishing returns but assumes one generic technology is too simplistic and misses important differences between more successful and less successful technologies. Second, we use quantile regression techniques to learn more about patents that have a high positive error term in our regressions – that is, patents that receive many more citations than predicted based on observable characteristics. We find that differences across technologies, rather than differences across quantiles within technologies, are more important. The value of successful technologies persists longer than those of less successful technologies, providing evidence that success is the culmination of several advances building upon one another, rather than resulting from one single breakthrough. Diminishing returns to research activities appear most problematic during rapid increases of research investment, such as experienced by solar energy in the 1970s.     

Technology variation vs. R&D uncertainty: What matters most for energy patent success?

R&D is an uncertain activity with highly skewed outcomes. Nonetheless, most recent empirical studies and modeling estimates of the potential of technological change focus on the average returns to research and development (R&D) for a composite technology and contain little or no information about the distribution of returns to R&D – which could be important for capturing the range of costs associated with climate change mitigation policies – by individual technologies. Through an empirical study of patent citation data, this paper adds to the literature on the outcomes of energy R&D by focusing on the behavior of the most successful innovations for six energy technologies, allowing us to determine whether uncertainty or differences in technologies matter most for success. We highlight two key results. First, we compare the results from an aggregate analysis of six energy technologies to technology-by-technology results. Our results show that existing work that assumes diminishing returns but assumes one generic technology is too simplistic and misses important differences between more successful and less successful technologies. Second, we use quantile regression techniques to learn more about patents that have a high positive error term in our regressions – that is, patents that receive many more citations than predicted based on observable characteristics. We find that differences across technologies, rather than differences across quantiles within technologies, are more important. The value of successful technologies persists longer than those of less successful technologies, providing evidence that success is the culmination of several advances building upon one another, rather than resulting from one single breakthrough. Diminishing returns to research activities appear most problematic during rapid increases of research investment, such as experienced by solar energy in the 1970s.     

Modeling the rebound effect in two manufacturing industries

The rebound effect refers to the phenomenon that energy savings from improvements in energy efficiency are lower than expected due to unintended second-order effects. Grasping specific mechanisms related to the rebound effect requires a good understanding of interactions between heterogonous agents on multiple markets. Otherwise, policies aimed at reducing energy use may render counter-expected and unforeseen consequences. In this paper, we propose a formal model, where technological change results from interactions on two markets: between consumers and producers in the market for final goods, and heterogeneous power plants in the electricity market. The analysis provides insights to the role of technological change, supply–demand coevolution, and status-driven consumption in explaining the rebound effect. The model is employed to compare effectiveness of economic policies aimed at reducing carbon emissions associated with production of consumer goods, namely: a tax on electricity and ‘nuclear obligations’ to produce ten percent of electricity from nuclear energy.     

技术溢出视角下技术进步对能源消费的回弹效应研究——基于空间面板数据模型

针对现有文献测算回弹效应普遍忽略技术溢出效应的缺憾,文章构建了三要素经济增长的空间误差模型,在此基础上给出了回弹效应的估算方法,并利用1995-2010年省际面板数据对我国技术溢出视角下技术进步对能源消费的回弹效应进行了实证分析。结果表明,技术进步所导致的能源回弹效应显著存在,中、西部的平均回弹效应明显高于东部,全国的平均回弹效应呈现上升趋势。因此,政府在制定能源政策时需要注意降低单位GDP能耗可能出现的回弹效应,把提高能源效率与自主创新、产业结构调整、政府宏观调控等手段结合起来以实现既定的节能目标。     

新能源成本不确定下能源最优开采研究

随着全球气候变暖和环境的恶化,低污染高效率的新能源成为各国能源政策的主要发展对象,因此新能源取代传统能源是大势所趋。针对未来新能源对传统能源的替代趋势,本文通过建立基于社会和企业总效益最大化的能源最优开采的动态模型,分析了新能源成本不确定性和社会风险偏好的差异对能源耗竭速度的影响,并提出了提高社会总收益的合理方案。分析表明：在替代品出现之前能源的开采量随着新能源替代品成本不确定性的增加而增加;而社会风险厌恶倾向于减少社会的最优开采,但是会增加竞争性企业的的开采量;对T时刻之前的能源开采征收额外的税收可以减缓能源耗竭速度,增加社会总收益。最后,本文提出了T时刻之前的能源开采征收额外的税收,或者是对T时刻之后的能源开采进行补贴来实现我国能源最优开采,提高能源利用效率的建议。     

Fuel Efficiency Improvements: Feedback Mechanisms and Distributional Effects in the Oil Market

We study the interactions between fuel efficiency improvements in the transport sector and the oil market, where the efficiency improvements are policy-induced in certain regions of the world. We are especially interested in feedback mechanisms of fuel efficiency such as the rebound effect, carbon leakage and the “green paradox”, but also the distributional effects for oil producers. An intertemporal numerical model of the international oil market is introduced, where OPEC-Core producers have market power. We find that the rebound effect has a noticeable effect on the transport sector, with the magnitude depending on the oil demand elasticity. In the benchmark simulations, we calculate that almost half of the energy savings may be lost to a direct rebound effect and an additional 10% to oil price adjustments. In addition, there is substantial intersectoral leakage to other sectors through lower oil prices in the regions that introduce the policy. There is a small green paradox effect in the sense that oil consumption increases initially when the fuel efficiency measures are gradually implemented. Finally, international carbon leakage will be significant if policies are not implemented in all regions; we estimate leakage rates of 35% or higher when only major consuming regions implement fuel economy policies. Non-OPEC producers will to a larger degree than OPEC producers cut back on its oil supply as a response to fuel efficiency policies due to high production costs.     

能源回弹效应下高碳产业低碳转型过程中的技术突变性

考虑能源回弹效应下,分析高碳产业低碳技术突变技术门槛,发现技术碳减排存在由量变到质变的门槛效应,另外还发现能源回弹对门槛效应具有显著影响。运用Hansen门限面板模型、结合CD生产函数的能源回弹模型发现：①不考虑能源回弹效应,高碳产业低碳化过程中的技术突变存在两个门槛;②考虑能源回弹作用,将减少为一个门槛,并且将延长高碳产业完成低碳技术突变所需时间。因此,为加快高碳产业低碳技术突变,有效减少碳排放,一方面应缓解能源回弹效应的影响,对能源回弹效应较大的高碳产业采取实时监控,对能源回弹较小的高碳产业采取定期检查和不定期抽检方式监控;货币政策、财政政策和产业政策相互配合,在高碳产业拉动经济增长的同时,最大限度控制能源回弹效应。另一方面,市场手段和政府职能双管齐下,协助企业低碳技术升级和设备改造,优化税收结构,弥补低碳技术升级导致的负外部性,完善高碳产业转移或市场退出机制。     

CONSTITUENCY PREFERENCE AND POLICE CONSOLIDATION: THE CASE OF WEST HOLLYWOOD

This study estimates the determinants of voter behavior in a local referendum on contracting for municipal police services. Recent empirical research has found that police services are produced under decreasing returns to scale. The electorate in West Hollywood, California decided in 1992 to maintain its police contractual agreement with the larger county police department. This paper finds that economic costs/benefits were significant determinants of the voters' decisions, suggesting that the electorate's expectations on the relative costs of the alternative police regimes contradict the efficiency implications of recent empirical research. ( JEL H31, H77)     

China’s regional rebound effect based on modelling multi-regional CGE

Improving energy efficiency has been regarded as an important measure to reduce energy consumption, yet the rebound effect has greatly shrunken the energy saving consequences of this measure. To investigate regional rebound effect in China, a multi-region computed general equilibrium (CGE) model is established in this paper. The results show that there are obvious regional differences in the rebound effect in China. The primary energy rebound effects are positive, whereas the production-side power rebounds are below zero in most regions. We also simulated the energy subsidy reform scenarios, which indicates that reducing or even eliminating coal and oil subsidies will increase the production-side rebounds. Finally, feasible policy recommendations are put forward based on the results.     

Energy Efficiency and Rebound Effects: An Econometric Analysis of Energy Demand in the Commercial Building Sector

It is widely recognized that the adoption of energy saving innovations can induce an increase in the usage of the corresponding technologies and thus can possibly increase energy consumption. Among other concerns is that uncertainties regarding the magnitude of this “rebound effect” can deter policy makers from promoting energy efficiency. This paper analyzes the rebound effects of the adoption of energy efficient technologies in commercial buildings. Based upon a structural model of technology adoption and subsequent energy demand at the building level, the empirical results are that energy efficiency can reduce electricity use by about 35 % and natural gas consumption by about 50 %.     

Motivating energy suppliers to promote energy conservation

We examine the design of regulatory policy to induce electric utilities to deliver the surplus-maximizing level of energy efficiency services, $e^{*}$ . The rebound effect (whereby increased energy efficiency stimulates the demand for energy) typically renders revenue decoupling insufficient in this regard. The additional financial incentive required to induce $e^{*}$ is shown to vary with such factors as the prevailing price of energy, the magnitude of the rebound effect, the extent of observable energy efficiency investments, and the utility’s objective.     

Do increases in energy efficiency improve environmental quality and sustainability?

Governments world-wide increasingly see energy efficiency as an important aspect of sustainability. However, there is a debate in the literature as to whether the impact of improved energy efficiency on reducing energy use might be partially, or more than wholly, offset through “rebound” and “backfire” effects. This paper clarifies the theoretical conditions under which such effects would occur and explores their likely significance using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Scottish economy. We find that for Scotland a general improvement in energy efficiency in the production sectors of the economy initially produces rebound effects that eventually grow into backfire. Energy use ultimately increases in response to an efficiency gain and the ratio of GDP to CO₂ emissions falls. The economic factors underpinning rebound effects are straightforward: energy efficiency improvements result in an effective cut in energy prices, which produces output, substitution, competitiveness and income effects that stimulate energy demands. However, the presence of strong rebound or even backfire does not mean that efficiency-enhancing policies are irrelevant: rather it suggests that such policies operating alone are insufficient to generate environmental improvements. The implication is that a co-ordinated portfolio of energy policies is required.