The amenity value of the climate: the household production function approach

A basic assumption of the hedonic technique is that there are no barriers to mobility that prevent prices changing to reflect the net benefits of a given location. But climate variables are undeviating over relatively large distances and the absence of a common language coupled with the existence of political boundaries may prevent the net advantages associated with a particular region from being eliminated. Apart from in a handful of countries, methods alternative to the hedonic approach may therefore be required to estimate the amenity value of climate. Adopting the household production function approach this paper undertakes a systematic examination of the role played by climate in determining consumption patters using data from 88 different countries. Given certain assumptions the paper then proceeds to calculate the constant utility change in the cost of living for a 2.5 °C increase in globally averaged mean temperature. It is determined that high latitude countries benefit from limited climate change whereas low latitude countries suffer significant losses.     

Climate change impacts on irrigation water requirements: Effects of mitigation, 1990–2080

Potential changes in global and regional agricultural water demand for irrigation were investigated within a new socio-economic scenario, A2r, developed at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) with and without climate change, with and without mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions. Water deficits of crops were developed with the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)–IIASA Agro-ecological Zone model, based on daily water balances at 0.5° latitude × 0.5° longitude and then aggregated to regions and the globe. Future regional and global irrigation water requirements were computed as a function of both projected irrigated land and climate change and simulations were performed from 1990 to 2080. Future trends for extents of irrigated land, irrigation water use, and withdrawals were computed, with specific attention given to the implications of climate change mitigation. Renewable water-resource availability was estimated under current and future climate conditions. Results suggest that mitigation of climate change may have significant positive effects compared with unmitigated climate change. Specifically, mitigation reduced the impacts of climate change on agricultural water requirements by about 40%, or 125–160 billion m³ (Gm³) compared with unmitigated climate. Simple estimates of future changes in irrigation efficiency and water costs suggest that by 2080 mitigation may translate into annual cost reductions of about 10 billion US$.     

The impact of climate on life satisfaction

We analyse the influence of climate on average life satisfaction in 79 countries using data from the World Values Survey. Climate is described in terms of ‘degree-months’ calculated as the cumulated monthly deviations from a base temperature of 65 °F (18.3 °C). Our results suggest that countries with climates characterised by a large number of degree-months enjoy significantly lower levels of life satisfaction. This finding is robust to a wide variety of model specifications. Using our results to analyse a particular climate change scenario associated with the IPCC A2 emissions scenario points to major losses for African countries, but modest gains for Northern Europe.     

Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of yellow-eyed penguin recovery

Although an estimated US$6 billion is invested annually in our planet's biological diversity, little research has been conducted on which conservation treatments work best or provide best value for money. Where controlled experiments are not possible, econometric techniques can be used to determine the effectiveness of conservation treatments. We use a long-running yellow-eyed penguin (Megadyptes antipodes) nest count in New Zealand to compare the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of three commonly used endangered species recovery treatments—trapping of introduced predators, revegetation, and intensive management. Following ecological theory, we specify a density-dependent population growth rate. We control for year effects and site characteristics such as land cover, slope, and elevation. The possibility of selection bias in treatment is confronted with site fixed effects and with an instrumental variable based on site accessibility. Of the three treatments that we analyze, only intensive management is significantly correlated with increases in annual site-level yellow-eyed penguin population growth rate. We estimate that intensive management increased the yellow-eyed penguin population by 9% above the counterfactual, and that the average cost of producing an additional yellow-eyed penguin nest through intensive management is NZ$68,600.     

On the Uncertainty About the Total Economic Impact of Climate Change

This paper uses a vote-counting procedure to estimate the probability density function of the total economic impact as a parabolic function of global warming. There is a wide range of uncertainty about the impact of climate change up to 3°C, and the information becomes progressively more diffuse beyond that. Warming greater than 3°C most likely has net negative impacts, and warming greater than 7°C may lead to a total welfare loss. The expected value of the social cost of carbon is about $29/tC in 2015 and rises at roughly 2% per year.     

Using Meta-Analysis and GIS for Value Transfer and Scaling Up: Valuing Climate Change Induced Losses of European Wetlands

There is growing policy and academic interest in transferring ecosystem service values from existing valuation studies to other ecosystem sites at a large geographic scale. Despite the evident policy demand for this combined transfer and “scaling up” of values, an approach to value transfer that addresses the challenges inherent in assessing ecosystem changes at a national or regional level is not available. This paper proposes a methodology for scaling up ecosystem service values to estimate the welfare effects of ecosystem change at this larger geographical scale. The methodology is illustrated by applying it to value the impact of climate change on European wetlands for the period 2000–2050. The proposed methodology makes use of meta-analysis to produce a value function. The parameters of the value function include spatial variables on wetland size and abundance, GDP per capita, and population. A geographic information system is used to construct a database of wetland sites in the case study region with information on these spatial variables. Site-specific ecosystem service values are subsequently estimated using the meta-analytic value function. The proposed method is shown to enable the adjustment of transferred values to reflect variation in important spatial variables and to account for changes in the stock of ecosystems.     

The Economic Value of Air-Pollution-Related Health Risks in China: A Contingent Valuation Study

The economic value of preventing adverse health effects related to air pollution is estimated using contingent valuation in three diverse locations in China. Values are estimated for three health endpoints: cold, chronic bronchitis, and fatality. Alternative statistical models are tested to study their impact on estimated willingness to pay (WTP) and on the relationship between WTP and respondent characteristics. Using the official exchange rate, the sample-average median WTP to prevent an episode of cold ranges between US$3 and US$6, the WTP to prevent a statistical case of chronic bronchitis ranges between US$500 and US$1,000, and the value per statistical life ranges between US$4,000 and US$17,000. Estimated mean values are between two and thirteen times larger. Our estimates are between about 10 and 1,000 times smaller than estimates for the US and Taiwan using official exchange rates. Indoor air quality, measured for a subset of respondents, shows no consistent relationship with WTP.     

The social value of carbon sequestered in Great Britain's woodlands

The economic value of carbon storage associated with British woodland is calculated. Models were developed to estimate C flux associated with live trees, forest floor litter, soils, wood products, harvest, fossil fuel used in manufacturing and C displacement from biofuels and products for representative British plantation species: Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis) and beech (Fagus sylvatica). Map databases of publicly and privately owned woodlands were compiled for Great Britain. Carbon flux was determined for individual woodland sites, and monetised using candidate parameters for the social discount rate (1, 3, 3.5 or 5%) and social value of carbon (US$109.5, $1, $10 or $17.10/t). A conventional discount function was applied. Final results are expressed as Net Present Values, for the base year 2001, with discounting commencing in 2002. The minimum suggested NPV (discount rate = 3% and social value of carbon = $1) of GB woodlands already existing in 2001 is $82 million, with a further $72 million that might be added by future afforestation. These figures rise dramatically if a discount rate of 1% and social value of sequestered carbon = $109.5/t are assumed. The calculated total value of C stored in British woodland depends significantly on parameter assumptions, especially about appropriate discount rate and social value of sequestered carbon.     

Fertility and climate change*

A quarter of the total increase in emissions is attributable to the growth of emissions per capita, whereas three-quarters are due to population growth. This evidence notwithstanding, demography in climate–economy models typically follows exogenous trends. We develop a climate–economy integrated model with endogenous fertility through a quality–quantity trade-off. The decentralization of the social optimum requires two complementary instruments: a carbon pricing policy and family planning interventions. Global population increases and reaches a peak, depending on the scenario, between 11.6 billion in the social optimum and 14.6 billion if only carbon prices are implemented. Fertility costs (i.e., the net present value of the climate-related costs per child) are in 2020 estimated to be about 22,000 euros in the “social optimum” scenario, and about 88,000 euros in the “second-best with fertility taxes” scenario. Carbon pricing tends to have a rebound effect as it increases population growth leading to higher future emissions. Our results highlight the effects of fertility choices and global population on climate change, quantifying the cost of neglecting the interaction.     

Port-induced erosion prediction and valuation of a local recreational beach

This study attempts to integrate environmental economics and coastal engineering in managing port-induced coastal erosion occurring at a common beach by using Map Ta Phut port in Thailand as a case study. The existence of the port creates coastal erosion which can be considered an externality that affects local inhabitants, and a port owner and shipping companies can be seen as “polluters”. Overlaying of aerial photographs provided strong evidence that the coastline was severely eroded after the construction of the port. Coastal engineering softwares, LITPACK and MIKE 21 PMS, were utilized to predict future shoreline positions and investigate wave patterns around the port. The port alters wave climate and the port-induced erosion is jeopardizing a local recreational beach called Nam Rin, which is projected to disappear in 5 years. A valuation of Nam Rin beach using single-bounded dichotomous choice contingent valuation method revealed individual willingness to pay (WTP) for the beach, being 867.5 baht (approximately US$ 24.8) per year. Multiplying the individual WTP with the appropriate number of population to acquire the beach protection benefit and dividing such benefit by construction and maintenance costs of a particular beach protection measure, the polluters can select a proper beach protection approach that fulfills their benefit-cost requirement.     

No matter how it is measured, income declines with global warming

The contemporaneous relationship between temperature and income is important because it enables economists to estimate the economic impact of global warming without assuming a structural model. Until recently, empirical evidence generally suggests that there is a negative relationship between temperature and income, and, therefore, global warming has an adverse impact on economic activity. However, Nordhaus (2006) argues that the temperature-income relationship depends on how income is measured. We show in this paper that the results of Nordhaus (2006) may be due to an omitted-variable problem. Based on a well-motivated temperature-income model, we find that the relationship between temperature and income is not dependent on income measurement. Our regression results show that the adverse impact of an increase of 1 °C in temperature can be as much as a 3% decrease in total income for the G-7 nations. Therefore, our results suggest an aggressive climate mitigation policy.     

Estimates of the Damage Costs of Climate Change. Part 1: Benchmark Estimates

A selection of the potential impacts of climate change – on agriculture,forestry, unmanaged ecosystems, sea level rise, human mortality, energyconsumption, and water resources – are estimated and valued in monetaryterms. Estimates are derived from globally comprehensive, internallyconsistent studies using GCM based scenarios. An underestimate of theuncertainty is given. New impact studies can be included following themeta-analytical methods described here. A 1 °C increase in the globalmean surface air temperature would have, on balance, a positive effect onthe OECD, China, and the Middle East, and a negative effect on othercountries. Confidence intervals of regionally aggregated impacts, however,include both positive and negative impacts for all regions. Global estimatesdepend on the aggregation rule. Using a simple sum, world impact of a1 °C warming would be a positive 2% of GDP, with a standarddeviation of 1%. Using globally averaged values, world impact would be anegative 3% (standard deviation: 1%). Using equity weighting, worldimpact would amount to 0% (standard deviation: 1%).     

Growth in global materials use, GDP and population during the 20th century

The growing industrial metabolism is a major driver of global environmental change. We present an assessment of the global use of materials since the beginning of the 20th century based on the conceptual and methodological principles of material flow accounting (MFA). On the grounds of published statistical data, data compilations and estimation procedures for material flows not covered by international statistical sources, we compiled a quantitative estimate of annual global extraction of biomass, fossil energy carriers, metal ores, industrial minerals and construction minerals for the period 1900 to 2005. This period covers important phases of global industrialisation and economic growth. The paper analyses the observed changes in the overall size and composition of global material flows in relation to the global economy, population growth and primary energy consumption. We show that during the last century, global materials use increased 8-fold. Humanity currently uses almost 60 billion tons (Gt) of materials per year. In particular, the period after WWII was characterized by rapid physical growth, driven by both population and economic growth. Within this period there was a shift from the dominance of renewable biomass towards mineral materials. Materials use increased at a slower pace than the global economy, but faster than world population. As a consequence, material intensity (i.e. the amount of materials required per unit of GDP) declined, while materials use per capita doubled from 4.6 to 10.3 t/cap/yr. The main material groups show different trajectories. While biomass use hardly keeps up with population growth, the mineral fractions grow at a rapid pace. We show that increases in material productivity are mostly due to the slow growth of biomass use, while they are much less pronounced for the mineral fractions. So far there is no evidence that growth of global materials use is slowing down or might eventually decline and our results indicate that an increase in material productivity is a general feature of economic development.     

Compensating Wage Differentials with Unemployment: Evidence from China

We estimate the economic value of mortality risk in China using the compensating-wage-differential method. We find a positive and statistically significant correlation between wages and occupational fatality risk. The estimated effect is largest for unskilled workers. Unemployment reduces compensation for risk, which suggests that some of the assumptions under which compensating wage differentials can be interpreted as measures of workers’ preferences for risk and income are invalid when unemployment is high. Workers may be unwilling to quit high-risk jobs when alternative employment is difficult to obtain, violating the assumption of perfect mobility, or some workers (e.g., new migrants) may be poorly informed about between-job differences in risk, violating the assumption of perfect information. These factors suggest our estimates of the value per statistical life (VSL) in China, which range from approximately US$30,000 to US$100,000, may be biased downward. Alternative estimates adjust for heterogeneity of risk within industry by assuming that risk is concentrated among low-skill workers. These estimates, which are likely to be biased downward, range from US$7,000 to US$20,000.      

The effects of El Niño on the mackerel purse-seine fishery harvests in Taiwan: An analysis integrating the barometric readings and sea surface temperature

The harvest of mackerel purse-seine fishery in Taiwan fell sharply by 47.75% following the strong El Niño of 1997/1998. In this study, we try to incorporate El Niño barometric readings and sea surface temperature measurements into analysis for predicting the biomass. Using daily logbook records of the mackerel purse-seine fishery from 1982 to 1999, we identify the factors that influence the catch of mackerel purse-seine fishery in Taiwan. Based on an empirical model and the results of a fishing fleet cost survey, we estimate the average cost and the welfare loss associated with an El Niño. A time-series simulation shows that adding the El Niño barometric readings information improves the accuracy of biomass forecasts. It also shows that about 14 months after the strong El Niño has occurred, the biomass index is 13.2% lower and the number of fishing day is 10.4% higher. The estimated welfare loss of all mackerel purse-seine fleets during September to January in the year subsequent to the El Niño is about US$6 million. Policy implications of the study are also discussed.     

The influence of Taiwan’s stock market on Bitcoin’s price under Taiwan’s monetary policy threshold

ABSTRACT

This study uses a smooth transition autoregressive model with exogenous variables (STARX) to investigate whether there is a nonlinear relationship between Bitcoin and Taiwan’s stock market taking into account Taiwan’s monetary policy threshold during 2 February 2012 to 31 August 2019. The statistical results show there is a threshold effect and confirm a nonlinear relationship between Taiwan’s stock market and Bitcoin, with variations over time and across Bitcoin and Taiwan’s stock market. Specifically, we find that Bitcoin responds asymmetrically to Taiwan’s stock market according to the threshold value. Furthermore, the return on the closing price of TAIEX with a lag of two periods under Taiwan’s monetary policy threshold has a nonlinear impact on the return on the closing price of Bitcoin.     

Investment banks' stock ratings,call warrant issuance,and responses from heterogeneous investors: Evidence from Taiwan

We investigate the responses of the different types of investors on stock rating change announcements made by investment banks around call warrant issuances in Taiwan. The unique characteristics of the Taiwan warrants market allow investment banks to make stock rating change announcements around call warrant issuances for the same stocks they rate. In Taiwan, investment banks are also dealers of call warrants, and thus, the profit and loss results from their warrant business are potentially in conflict-of-interest for their stock ratings. Another feature of the Taiwan stock market allows us to disentangle the types of investors initiating the stock trades. We identify three types of investors: institutional investors, experienced retail investors, and ordinary retail investors. Our findings suggest that institutional investors are able to “see-through” the conflict-of-interest in investment banks; experienced investors are able to partially “see-through” the conflict-of-interest, and ordinary retail investors are unable to “see-through” the conflict-of-interest of investment banks.     

Knowledge spillovers,human capital and productivity

Knowledge spillovers in the form of human capital are often regarded as the engine of sustained growth and development. We employ a rich employer–employee matched dataset on the manufacturing industry in Taiwan, a newly industrialized economy, to quantify the significance of human capital spillovers and their effects on productivity gains. Using the ratio of higher-educated (university or above) employees in each city as the external human capital index of a plant (excluding the reference plant itself) and addressing the potential endogeneity of various unobservable factors attributable to the location of the plant, we find that within a given city, a 1 percent increase in the proportion of higher-educated employees will increase the productivity of plants in that city by approximately 0.93–1.15 percent. Furthermore, the productivity increases are found to be greater for high-tech plants and for those located in cities with science parks. This indicates that human capital spillovers are not only present, but stronger under greater technology intensities. Our measure of the monetary value of such spillover effects indicates that a 1 percent increase in the percentage of higher-educated employees in a city will raise the value-added per plant by US$15,937, or, equivalently, an increase of US$1.27 billion for the entire manufacturing industry.     

Carbon offsets as an economic alternative to large-scale logging: a case study in Guyana

The objective of this study is to analyze the economic viability of carbon-offset projects that avoid logging in Guyana's forests. The results of this case study illustrate the cost effectiveness of alternative land-use options that reduce deforestation and associated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This analysis demonstrates that using Guyana's rainforests for climate change mitigation can generate equivalent revenue to that of conventional large-scale logging without detrimental environmental impacts. At a 12% discount rate, the break-even price for carbon is estimated to be about US$ 0.20/tC. This estimate falls toward the low range of carbon prices for existing carbon offset projects that avoid deforestation.