我国大豆产业的危机及对策

首先从我国大豆在生产、进出口、加工等领域存在的问题入手,揭示出国产大豆目前存在重大产业危机。接着,对国内大豆消费、生产、补贴以及价格等因素进行了分析并与主要大豆生产国进行了比较。最后,从提高大豆种植经济效益、发挥大豆协会作用、完善市场体系、打破价格垄断、保护非转基因特色等方面,提出了有针对性的建议。     

中国大豆生产和贸易

This paper provides an overview of the economic analysis, policy debate, and methodological issues on soybean production, import and export, and impacts of GMO regulation on soybean foreign trade of China. The paper analyzes China's soybean production capability and discovers that the present yield of China's soybean plant system cannot satisfy the domestic demand. The paper also provides the method to solve such matters by using the result of a modified Cobb-Douglas model. In the third section of this paper, the impacts of GMO regulation on soybean trade and market in China are analyzed. In this section, we provide a methodological issue to analyze the impacts of such regulation on trade. The paper then explains the implicated result induced by such regulations.     

Using resources in R&D policy planning: Brazil, the Amazon and biotechnology

Brazil's research and development (R&D) policies are examined in light of changes in economic direction especially as it pertains to competition. In a competitive environment, regions should develop industrial applications and expertise in areas that coincide with their resources. These could be human resources but could, as in the focus of this paper, be useful resources that differentiate the region from others in the world. This differentiation provides an advantage to the region. Brazil and its Amazon region has the large majority of the world's rare genes. In biotechnology, genes are “green gold,” and Brazil is slowly developing a biotechnology industry and beginning to tap into the Brazilian Amazon region's economic biotech potential. This region has enormous potential for the development of biotech-related technologies and products. This paper discusses the relationship between resources and an R&D strategy using as an example the recent developments in biotechnology research in Brazil and the role of the Amazon region in the development of a Brazilian biotechnology industry. It recommends a number of policy initiatives that will enhance Brazil's focus on biotechnology.     

Ecosystem Service Value and Agricultural Conversion in the Amazon: Implications for Policy Intervention

We explore the welfare implications of agricultural expansion in the Brazilian Amazon by comparing spatially explicit estimates of soybean rents and the value of ecosystem services. Although these estimates are generated from different datasets, models, and estimation techniques, the values are comparable, such that the value of ecosystem services is greater than soybean rents for about 61% of the total area and 24% of the area where soybean rents are positive if protected areas are well enforced. Based on the balance between the benefits and costs of conversion, failure to value ecosystem services reduces total social welfare by 7.13 billion dollars annually relative to an optimum. Policy instruments that internalize the value of ecosystem services via protected lands, land conversion taxes, conservation subsidies, or excise taxes can avoid much of this loss. Regardless of intervention regime, policy makers should be cognizant of the diminishing net benefits of converting natural ecosystems to agriculture. Realizing the final 3.8% requires the conversion of an additional 15% natural ecosystems to soybean production.     

Substitution between water and other agricultural inputs: Implications for water conservation in a River Basin context

Substitution of irrigation water with other agricultural inputs could be an important means to conserve water in the face of growing pressures on water resources from both nonagricultural water demands and environmental water requirements. This paper discusses the potential of such substitution through an empirical analysis based on a multiple-input crop production function at the field and farm scales complemented with a numerical modeling exercise at the basin scale. Results from the crop production function analysis show that under both crop yield and net profit maximization, water is a substitute to other crop inputs for high-value crops, and is a complement to water for low-valued crops. At the basin scale, an integrated economic-hydrologic river basin model is used to analyze the role of other factors in crop input substitution, including the spatial connections among water sources and demands, hydro-agronomic conditions, and institutional settings for water allocation. Results show that in the case study area, the Maipo River basin in Chile, where water is very scarce, moving from the current, input-constrained, situation to full optimization of water resources leads to an increase in all crop inputs, including water. In that case, 301 million m³ of additional water use results in additional net profits of USD 11 million. However, if the water fee is raised by a factor of eight while overall basin irrigation profits are maintained at the original, baseline level, a reduction of water withdrawals by 326 million m³ is traded off with costs of USD 43.2 million for other inputs. Irrigation districts with a high share of low-value crops have a low potential for substituting water with other crop inputs. Therefore, investments for water substitution should also be kept low in these areas.     

Human appropriation of aboveground net primary production in Spain, 1955-2003: An empirical analysis of the industrialization of land use

The human appropriation of net primary production (HANPP) is an indicator of the human domination of ecosystems that measures to which extent human activities alter the amount of biomass available each year in ecosystems. This paper analyses the development of aboveground HANPP (aHANPP) in Spain for the period from 1955 to 2003. During this period, Spain's agriculture underwent a transition from a largely pre-industrial to a highly intensified production system. Changes in land use patterns include a reduction of cropland area and an expansion of forest area. Results show that aHANPP declined from 67% of potential aNPP in 1955 to 61% in 2003. Biomass harvest strongly increased from 68 million tons dry matter biomass per year (Mt/yr) to 106 Mt/yr, with nearly all of this increase occurring on cropland. Productivity losses due to human-induced land conversions dropped significantly from 112 Mt/yr to 63 Mt/yr, mainly as a result of the surge in cropland productivity and the increase in forest area. Despite its decrease during the last decades, aHANPP in Spain is still at a remarkably high level in comparison with the global average or other industrialized countries.     

Indigenous livelihoods, slash-and-burn agriculture, and carbon stocks in Eastern Panama

Improved crop–fallow systems in the humid tropics can simultaneously sequester atmospheric carbon emissions and contribute to sustainable livelihoods of rural populations. A study with an indigenous community in eastern Panama revealed a considerable biophysical potential for carbon offsets in small-scale slash-and-burn agriculture through longer fallow periods, improved fallow management, secondary forest development, and agricultural intensification. Based on soil and biomass carbon measurements, estimated annual sequestration rates amount to 0.3−3.7 t C ha^− 1 yr^− 1. Despite such potential, the economic benefits of initiatives aimed at sequestration of carbon in the community are likely to be rather unequally distributed within the community. Heterogeneity in livelihood strategies and uneven asset endowments among households – factors often overlooked in the ongoing carbon and sustainable development debate – are expected to strongly affect household participation. Indeed, only the better-endowed households that have also managed to diversify into more lucrative farm and non-farm activities are likely to be able to participate in and thus benefit from improved crop–fallow systems that capture carbon. Economic, ethical, institutional, and technical concerns need to be taken into account when designing community carbon management and investment plans.     

Oil shale and climate policy in the shift to a low carbon and more resilient economy

Policy makers worldwide are recently debating options to implement an effective climate policy that would put a cap on green house gas emissions. At the same time, investors are carefully evaluating the profitability of unconventional fossil fuels such as shale oil. To enhance the understanding of the impacts of a climate policy such as the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009, on oil shale production – and vice versa – we have customized an integrated assessment model, the Climate and Energy Assessment for Resiliency model for Unconventional Fossil Fuels to the U.S. Western Energy Corridor. Our analysis indicates that while the bill would increase the production cost of oil shale, the industry remains highly profitable in the longer-term, generating a potential profit of about $10 to $16 billion per year by 2040 at 2.5 million barrels per day. These results suggest that the oil shale industry may comfortably face the enactment of a carbon policy, albeit with some caveats. Furthermore, while its potential economic impact on non-compliant industries may be severe, it would generate mounting profits for those achieving energy efficiency gains, thereby increasing the profitability of energy efficiency investments.     

Do production managers predict turning points? A directional analysis

This study evaluates the directional accuracy of production managers' forecasts by using a new market-timing test. By extending the directional analysis to the 4 × 4 case, this study investigates whether Japanese production managers' forecasts correctly predict turning points in production across different industries. This fills a gap in the literature that focused on predicting increase/decrease or acceleration/deceleration using directional analysis of the 2 × 2 case. It also illustrates its merit over the 2 × 2 case. This study shows that majority of the forecasts are not useful in predicting turning points in production; however, they are useful in predicting increase/decrease in production. Our findings suggest that the production managers' forecasts serve as early qualitative information of expansion and contraction on the Japanese economy and their accuracy does not differ by phases of business cycles.     

市场结构、流通能力与我国农产品流通企业扩张绩效

通过对企业扩张影响因素全面的理论梳理,构建一个新的企业扩张行为分析模型,可以认为企业扩张行为并非是外部因素决定的,企业扩张行为绩效的决定是内部性的.在这一企业扩张新假设条件下,企业在竞争中的能力的积累是流通企业扩张行为取得绩效的根本来源.运用这个模型对中国农产品企业扩张问题进行实证研究,从而对我国农产品流通企业扩张的合理化提出相关建议.     

Modeling economic and agro-environmental dynamics of potato production systems

Crop rotation and other input management practices are of particular interest for their potential impacts on economic and agro-environmental components of potato production. Although crop yield and experimental impacts of rotations of grains, oilseed and legume crops have been published for several experimental studies in Canada there are few models related to the economic and environmental dynamics of potato production. We describe a dynamic model which integrates environmental and economic processes in potato production. The potato rotation model consists of interconnected modules of irrigation and precipitation, soil characteristics, soil erosion, soil water, phosphorus, nitrogen, soil organic matter, farming operations, crop yield and the related calculation of economic return. While not all aspects of crop production have been interlinked, including nitrogen carry-over, this model is the first step in the analysis of experimental data for irrigated potato rotations conducted in southern Manitoba.      

The water footprint of energy from biomass: A quantitative assessment and consequences of an increasing share of bio-energy in energy supply

This paper assesses the water footprint (WF) of different primary energy carriers derived from biomass expressed as the amount of water consumed to produce a unit of energy (m³/GJ). The paper observes large differences among the WFs for specific types of primary bio-energy carriers. The WF depends on crop type, agricultural production system and climate. The WF of average bio-energy carriers grown in the Netherlands is 24 m³/GJ, in the US 58 m³/GJ, in Brazil 61 m³/GJ, and in Zimbabwe 143 m³/GJ. The WF of bio-energy is much larger than the WF of fossil energy. For the fossil energy carriers, the WF increases in the following order: uranium (0.1 m³/GJ), natural gas (0.1 m³/GJ), coal (0.2 m³/GJ), and finally crude oil (1.1 m³/GJ). Renewable energy carriers show large differences in their WF. The WF for wind energy is negligible, for solar thermal energy 0.3 m³/GJ, but for hydropower 22 m³/GJ. Based on the average per capita energy use in western societies (100 GJ/capita/year), a mix from coal, crude oil, natural gas and uranium requires about 35 m³/capita/year. If the same amount of energy is generated through the growth of biomass in a high productive agricultural system, as applied in the Netherlands, the WF is 2420 m³. The WF of biomass is 70 to 400 times larger than the WF of the other primary energy carriers (excluding hydropower). The trend towards larger energy use in combination with an increasing contribution of energy from biomass will enlarge the need for fresh water. This causes competition with other claims, such as water for food.     

Competing models of international lending activity

Four competing models of the World Bank's lending to developing countries are constructed and econometrically estimated by pooled time series and cross-section data. The analysis suggests that a model combining economic and political determinants performs best. Besides per capita income, inflation, balance of payment and budget deficit, external debt and past growth, political determinants such as the ‘capitalist’ climate or political instability are also important, as well as a recipient country's former status as a colony or dominion. This politico-economic-model is successfully used to forecast the distribution of IBRD loans and IDA credits among the developing countries.     

Economic Causes of Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon: A Panel Data Analysis for the 2000s

We use under-explored municipality level datasets to assess the recent economic and policy determinants of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. We estimate yearly panel data models (from 2002 to 2009) for 663 municipalities in the region. The results show that recent deforestation is increasing with economic activity and is also affected by economic incentives, measured by fluctuations in agricultural product and wood prices. Moreover, we document that the increasing enforcement efforts of the Brazilian environmental police (IBAMA) were effective in reducing deforestation rates.     

Economic impact of ocean fish populations in the global fishery

Our goal in this paper is to estimate the total output in an economy that is currently dependent (at least partially) on current fisheries output. We therefore applied the Leontief technological coefficients at current production and then estimate total output supported throughout the economy at the current level of production. Estimates of gross revenue from capture fisheries suggest that the direct value of output for this sector is US $80–85 billion annually (Sumaila et al., Journal of Bioeconomics 9(1):39–51, 2007; Willmann et al., The Sunken Billions, World Bank, FAO, Washington DC, Rome, 2009). However, as a primary or a potential economic base industry, there are a vast number of secondary economic activities—from boat building to international transport—that are supported by world fisheries, yet these related activities are rarely considered when evaluating the economic impact of fisheries. This study applies an input–output methodology to estimate the total direct, indirect, and induced impact of marine capture fisheries on the world economy. While results suggest that there is a great deal of variation in fishing output multipliers between regions and countries, when we apply the output multipliers to the capture fisheries sector at the global level, we find that significant indirect and induced effects place the impact of this sector to world output nearly three times larger than the value of landings at first sale, at between US $80–85 billion annually (Sumaila et al., Journal of Bioeconomics 9(1):39–51, 2007; Willmann et al., The Sunken Billions, World Bank, FAO, Washington DC, Rome, 2009). However, as a primary or a potential economic base industry, there are a vast number of secondary economic activities—from boat building to international transport—that are supported by world fisheries, yet these related activities are rarely considered when evaluating the economic impact of fisheries. This study applies an input–output methodology to estimate the total direct, indirect, and induced impact of marine capture fisheries on the world economy. While results suggest that there is a great deal of variation in fishing output multipliers between regions and countries, when we apply the output multipliers to the capture fisheries sector at the global level, we find that significant indirect and induced effects place the impact of this sector to world output nearly three times larger than the value of landings at first sale, at between US 225 and 240 billion per year.     

Credit union loan rate determinants in the United States

ABSTRACT

Credit union participation in the consumer lending market continues to grow as an increasing number of consumers and small businesses become members and open accounts. This study investigates the determinants of credit union loan rates during a period of economic expansion in the United States using fourth quarter 2015 data for 5,942 credit unions. Five different interest rate categories are analysed using nine potential loan rate determinants. Results indicate that loan rates tend to be lower as credit union size increases, while high ratios for net charge-offs and operating costs cause interest rates to increase. Opposite to what is expected, loan rates are positively correlated with regional unemployment rates. A possible explanation for this outcome is that weak labour markets are associated with elevated loan delinquency rates and, therefore, greater default risks resulting in higher interest rates.     

Modelling economy-ecology linkages in mangroves: Economic evidence for promoting conservation in Bintuni Bay, Indonesia

Woodchip exports pose a potential threat to a 300 000-ha mangrove ecosystem in the Bintuni Bay area of Irian Jaya, Indonesia. The bay supports an important shrimp export industry, and coastal areas support 3000 households. Traditional non-commercial uses of mangroves have an estimated value of Rp20 billion/yr (US$10 million/yr); commercial fisheries are valued at Rp70 billion/yr (US$35 million/yr) and selective commercial mangrove cutting schemes have a maximum value of Rp40 billion/yr (US$20 million/yr).Forest management options, ranging from clear cutting to a cutting ban, are evaluated in a cost–benefit analysis incorporating linkages among mangrove conversion, offshore fishery productivity, traditional uses, and benefits of erosion control and biodiversity maintenance functions. “Linkage scenarios” are developed that reflect potential ecosystem component interactions in Bintuni Bay. Clear cutting is optimal only if linkages are ignored. A cutting ban is optimal if linear and immediate linkages between ecosystem components exist. Under a scenario with linear but delayed linkages of 5 years, selective cutting of 25% of the harvestable mangrove is the optimal strategy; it has a present value of Rp70 billion (US$35 million) greater than the clear cutting option, and more extensive cutting would yield no additional net benefits.Strong economic arguments exist for conservative mangrove clearing. Where strong ecological linkages occur, severe restrictions on clearing activities will be economically optimal. Where ecosystem dynamics are uncertain, programs reducing linkage effects – such as greenbelts, replanting, or selective cutting – will minimise potential economic losses.     

External sustainability in Spanish economy: Bubbles and crises, 1970–2020

We address the issue of the sustainability Spain's external debt, using data for the period 1970–2020. To detect episodes of potentially explosive behavior of the Spanish net foreign assets over GDP ratio and the current account balance over GDP ratio, as well as episodes of external adjustments over this long period, we employ a recursive unit root test approach. Our empirical analysis leads us to conclude that there is some evidence of bubbles in the ratio between Spanish net foreign assets and the GDP. In contrast, the evidence that the ratio between the Spanish current account balance and the GDP had explosive subperiods is very weak. The episode of explosive behavior identified in the position of net foreign assets during the period 2002–2015 was the result of the country's economic expansion 1995–2007. The results also show an external adjustment during the period 2008–2019 after the start of a cyclical economic recession.     

Facilitating Consumer Learning in Insurance Markets: What Are the Welfare Effects?

We model a monopoly insurance market in which consumers can learn their accident risks at a cost c . We then examine the welfare effects of a policy that reduces c . If c is sufficiently small (c  < c ^*), the optimal contract is such that the consumer gathers information. For c  < c ^*, both the insurer and the consumer benefit from a policy that reduces c further. For c   >  c ^*, marginally reducing c hurts the insurer and weakly benefits the consumer. Finally, a reduction in c that is successful, meaning that the consumer gathers information after the reduction but not before it, can hurt both parties.     

The changing structure of cost and demand for the U.S. telecommunications industry

This paper formulates a multiproduct structural model to examine the evolution of the structures of production and demand and their dynamic interaction, over an extended period, 1935–1987, in the U.S. telecommunications industry. We estimate the degree of scale economies, cost elasticities, input price elasticities and the determinants of demand for outputs and for various factors of production. The contributions of the quasi-fixed inputs, such as R&D and physical capital, in the evolution of this industry are evaluated. A number of important issues like the changing characteristics of demand for and cost of local and toll services and the variation of price–cost margin over time are examined under different economic conditions, market structures and regulatory environments. We also analyze the effects of the 1984 divestiture of the Bell System on the cost structure, employment and capital formation of the U.S. telecommunications industry.