China’s direct investment in the European Union: challenges and policy responses

The dramatic rise of Chinese direct investment into the European Union (EU) has sparked a debate about the control that China may be seeking to take over European economies. Quite naturally, these concerns have led to repeated calls that action be taken to slow down, if not to halt entirely, this growing trend. The objective of the article is to shed light on this debate. Following a thorough analysis of Chinese direct investment in the EU, this article suggests that the challenges posed by these inflows are widely overblown. Despite this, the article concludes that it is necessary to have a systematic approach to regulating inbound foreign investment (including from China) in the EU. Such an approach may help guard against the risk of a protectionist drift inside the EU, as well as the possibility that some investors may one day pose a threat to national security. This article concludes that although the current fragmented regulatory approach is unsatisfactory, because of the difficulties associated with a unified EU-wide review process, the most realistic option is to promote a more systematic and coordinated use of existing mechanisms such as competition policy. Also, pushing for the negotiation of a China–EU BIT is certainly a promising avenue to enhance the EU’s bargaining leverage based on the principle of positive reciprocity.     

What are the drivers of total factor productivity in the European Union?

This paper examines the evolution of total factor productivity (TFP) over time, as well as across countries and sectors, and investigates its determinants. To this end, a panel data set of 17 European Union (EU) countries and 13 sectors over the period 1995–2007 is used as part of a twofold approach. First, we estimate aggregate and sectoral TFP for 17 EU countries by means of the augmented mean group estimator to control for endogeneity, cross-section dependence and heterogeneous production technologies. Second, we investigate the relative importance of the drivers of predicted TFP using a dynamic ordinary least-squares estimator. The results indicate that rationalization, human capital and information and communication technologies are the main drivers of TFP.     

Quality of governance and varieties of capitalism in the European Union: core and periphery division?

A growing body of literature suggests that the quality of governance has a significant effect on economic development. Investigations highlight that the quality of government institutions varies substantially in the European Union. These differences raise the question of whether they comply with the various models of capitalism. However, the various approaches of institutional analyses either neglect the role of the state or consider only the welfare function and the extent of state intervention. This article uses the databases of the World Bank and the World Economic Forum to classify the members of the European Union into clusters based on the quality of governance. Cluster analyses find notably clear-cut clusters in both cases. These clusters do not coincide with the usual varieties of capitalism; instead, they indicate a gap between the northern and western vs. the southern and eastern European countries, which is a core vs. periphery division. This gap indicates a long-lasting challenge in the deepening of European integration.     

What are the drivers of business demography and employment in the countries of the European Union?

ABSTRACT

The aim of this contribution is to establish a typology of European entrepreneurship countries with respect to variables related to entrepreneurial activity and economic development. Using a combination of multidimensional data analyses allows us to extend the concept of ‘entrepreneurial regimes’ and leads to the distinction of five such entrepreneurial regimes. Moreover, in order to better characterize these classes, a wide set of illustrative variables representative of national economic development, labour market functioning, and formal and informal institutional environments, as well as variables specific to the entrepreneurial population, are considered. Finally, discriminant analyses show that the five explanatory themes considered (Innovation, Employment, Formal Institutions, Entrepreneurship and Governance) differentiate the classes, and significantly explain the diversity of entrepreneurial regimes. These findings have important implications for the implementation of public policy, in order to promote entrepreneurial activity and reduce unemployment.     

Introduction: Is the European Union Capable of Integrating Diverse Models of Capitalism?

ABSTRACT

The causes and consequences of the Euro crisis have led comparative political economy scholars to question whether European integration can accommodate diverse models of capitalism. This special issue addresses two important questions about the compatibility of diverse growth models within the European Union (EU): Are some growth regimes better suited to European integration than others? and does the EU favour a particular constellation of domestic institutions? Contributions within this special issue provide a qualified yes to these questions, concluding that the EU favours export-led growth models whilst it penalises and discourages domestic consumption-oriented growth paths, particularly those that are financed by debt accumulation. While recent comparative capitalism literature highlights that European monetary integration has favoured export-led growth regimes, contributions in this special issue outline that the EU’s prioritisation of export-led growth over domestic demand-led growth is present in other facets of integration, including EU accession, financial integration, the free movement of people, fiscal governance and the Europe 2020 growth strategy. Findings here provide important insights for both the European integration and comparative capitalism literature, highlighting that the unique economic ties being forged within the European project may be problematic for those countries outside northwestern Europe and for workers in low-wage domestic sectors.     

Price convergence in the European Union – What has changed?

This paper investigates price convergence in European Union countries using disaggregated price level indices in the period 1999–2016. Our results show that prices of both tradable and nontradable goods had a significantly lower dispersion in 2016 than in 1999. The convergence was faster in the case of countries with price level below the average, which can be interpreted as catching-up. However, further analysis shows that most prices converged only up to 2008. While prices of transport equipment continue to converge across the European Union, several durable consumption categories show price divergence after 2008. We attribute this to the drop in international trade of durable products due to increasing inflation and exchange rates volatility following the global financial crisis. From the monetary policy perspective, the existing price-level gaps, shown in our study, may pose a risk of higher inflation, especially in catching-up economies.     

European policy and markets: Did policy initiatives stem the sovereign debt crisis in the euro area?

We investigate how European policy initiatives influenced market assessments of sovereign default risk and banking sector fragility during the sovereign debt crisis in four adversely affected countries — Portugal, Ireland, Spain and Italy. We focus on three broad groups of policies: (a) ECB policy actions (monetary and financial support), (b) EU programs (financial and fiscal rules as well as financial support in crisis countries), and (c) domestic austerity programs. We measure immediate market impact effects: what policies changed risk perceptions, using CDS spreads on sovereign bonds and banks in this assessment. We employ dynamic panel and event study methodologies in the empirical work. We find that a number of programs initially stabilized sovereign and bank bond markets (e.g. Outright Monetary Transactions program), although announcement and implementation impacts on markets differed in some cases (e.g. second Covered Market Bond Program). Actions designed to shore up sovereign markets often lowered risk assessments in bank bond markets and policies designed to ensure safety and soundness of the European banking system in some cases significantly impacted sovereign debt markets. Finally, a number of policies designed to stabilize markets had surprisingly little immediate impact on either sovereign or bank bond market risk assessments.     

Financialisation and Real Investment in the European Union: Beneficial or Prejudicial Effects?

This article presents an empirical analysis of the relationship between financialisation and real investment for non-financial corporations using panel data composed of 27 European Union countries over 19 years (1995 to 2013). On the one hand, financialisation leads to a rise in financial investments, diverting funds from real investments (‘crowding out’ effect); on the other, pressures from shareholders to intensify financial payments restrict the funds available for new real investments. We estimate an aggregate investment equation with the traditional variables (lagged investment, profitability, debt, cost of capital, corporate savings and output growth) and two further measures of financialisation (financial receipts and financial payments). The findings demonstrate that financialisation has damaged real investment in European Union countries, mainly through the channel of financial payments, either by interest or dividend payments. It is also found that the prejudicial effects of financialisation on investment were more severe in the pre-2007 crisis period. It is concluded that financialisation contributed to a slowdown of real investment by 1 to 8 per cent in the full and pre-crisis period, respectively. During the pre-crisis period, financialisation was the main driver of the slowdown of investment in the European Union.     

Enlargement and Institutional Reform in the European Union: Separate or Connected Issues?

In this paper, I analyze how the enlargement process is connected to the currently proposed institutional reforms in the European Union. Although the official claim is that enlargement requires reform, the relationship between both processes needs clarification. The use of unanimity voting for policy issues leads to substantial deadlock in the current Union, a problem that could be solved by the introduction of (qualified) majority voting. Moreover, in view of its current inflexibility enlargement would only marginally decrease the Union's capacity to make decisions. Under qualified majority rule, enlargement is likely to have little or no effect on flexibility given the distribution of preferences of the member-states. Also, if qualified majority voting is used, enlargement would decrease the power of the current member-states in a future Union, especially the larger ones. This, and the possibility for current member-states to link enlargement with specific policy demands, could be the crucial factors in the timing and shaping of the enlargement process.     

Transmission of the 2007–2008 financial crisis in advanced countries of the European Union

The aim of this paper is to identify the main factors responsible for the 2007–2008 crisis development and transmission across the 10 developed European Union (EU) countries. In order to achieve this objective, trade and financial linkages, crisis contagion from the United States and EU countries and countries' internal and external economic vulnerabilities are examined. The results of logistic regression model covering the period from 2002 to 2012 presented in this paper indicate that the transmission of the crisis occurred through contagion from the United States but also from other EU countries. Additionally, the empirical results confirm that high inflation, a decrease in the exchange rate, and a decrease in the US long-term interest rates increased the probability of the 2007–2008 financial crisis.     

The evolution of income inequality in the European Union during the period 1993–1996

The objective of this work is to analyse the income inequality in the 15 EU countries during the convergence process to the Monetary Union, using the information contained in the European Community Household Panel, corresponding to the four first waves. Using the inverse second order stochastic dominance concept, an ordering of these countries has been carried out. Furthermore, this ranking allows one to determine if the differences among EU country members have increased or decreased during this particular period. Whether the inequality of income has diminished within and between countries over time was studied. Gini's generalized family indices proposed by Donaldson and Weymark (Journal of Economic Theory 22: 67–86, 1980 and 29: 353–8, 1983) and Yitzhaki (International Economic Review 24: 617–28, 1983) have been used. This allows one to test the sensitivity of the results obtained to different degrees of inequality aversion and to different equivalence scales, taking into account household sizes.     

Does mutual recognition of qualifications stimulate services trade? The case of the European Union

This article analyses the services trade impact of recognition of professional qualifications using a unique database compiled by the European Commission. It observes that there is large variation in the number of regulated professions across the EU. The number of recognitions is small relative to total employment in regulated professions. Nevertheless, a robust positive relationship between services trade and recognition of qualifications is found. Recognition stimulates two-way trade between the source and the host country, suggesting that arms-length exports as well as cross-border outsourcing take place. Recognitions in health and education professions are most strongly related to services trade.     

Learning through games? Evaluating the learning effect of a policy exercise on European climate policy

One of the arguments for the use of simulation-gaming approaches in policy appraisal has consistently been their potential to stimulate learning. Yet few studies seek to ascertain the learning effects of these methods in a systematic manner; on the whole, participants' learning from interactive appraisal processes remains both under-conceptualised and under-evaluated. This paper seeks to contribute to filling this gap by developing a typology of learning effects (cognitive, relational, and normative) that can be expected from policy games. We subsequently present a set of tools for measuring them and test our approach on the case of a policy exercise on burden sharing in future European climate policy involving policy-makers and experts.On the basis of our measurements, we found limited evidence for learning from the policy exercise, mostly in the cognitive and the relational domain. In this context, the use of concept maps is an interesting methodological innovation. Employed as pre- and post-measurements, they proved a useful tool for tracing conceptual change through the exercise among participants. The paper concludes with a plea for more systematic assessment of the learning effects of interactive appraisal exercises, with a view to enabling a deeper discussion on the benefits and limitations of these methods.     

Convergence,divergence, or multiple steady states? New evidence on the institutional development within the European Union

Convergence in institutions and in per capita income across the European Union (EU) Member States are key goals of the European integrations process. Especially in the course of the various EU enlargement waves starting in 2004, it was intensively discussed whether institutional and structural homogeneity are necessary preconditions for real convergence and the smooth functioning of the EU or whether a (further) catching up in the institutional and economic development will endogenously occur after the EU accession. Our paper is dedicated to the analysis of these institutional dynamics within the EU. In particular, we analyze the formation of institutional convergence clusters using Phillips and Sul's (2007, 2009) log t-test over the period 2002 to 2018. Our results indicate the existence of multiple institutional clubs with various countries being stuck in a poor institutional trap. Moreover, we find that institutional convergence clubs are formed mainly on the basis of geographic region; in particular, we identify a northwest-southeast divide. When analyzing per capita income clubs, a rather similar picture emerges, suggesting that the underlying institutional clusters might drive the formation of income clubs. We also study the factors that determine institutional club membership by using an ordered probit model. Most importantly, we find that the initial levels of human capital and institutional quality are decisive for determining whether a country is on a high or low institutional growth path.     

No risk and some fun? Trade and wages in the enlarged European Union

This paper analyses the relationship between openness to trade and wages at the industry level (15 manufacturing and 6 service industries) in 25 EU countries over the period from 1995 to 2005. By applying a cross-country and industry-specific approach, it is possible to control for unobserved heterogeneity at both country and industry levels. We also differentiate between intra and inter-industry trade and we try to assess the relative importance of foreign wages versus domestic productivity developments in an open environment. We find that trade is not an important driver of wages, since the wage response to trade is small. Moreover, in line with the Stolper-Samuelson reasoning, the overall wage impact is always positive if significant in central and eastern Europe, while in western Europe we often observe a negative response, particularly in resource-based industries. Nevertheless, increased trade reinforces the productivity-wage link and weakens the co-movement of wages in eastern Europe, while there is less evidence of a similar wage-disciplining effect of trade in the west.     

Monetary policy rules in Central and Eastern European Countries: Does the exchange rate matter?

We estimate monetary policy rules for six Central and Eastern European Countries (CEEC) during the period when they prepared for membership to the EU and monetary union. By taking changes in the policy settings explicitly into account and by splitting up the exchange rate impact into two different components we significantly improve estimation results for monetary policy rules in CEEC. We uncover that the focus of the interest rate setting behaviour in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland explicitly switched from defending the peg to targeting inflation. For Slovakia, however, there still seemed to be on ongoing focus on the exchange rate. Finally, Slovenia and, after a policy switch, Romania exhibit a solid relation with inflation as well.