Modelling the Credit Spreads and Long–Term Relationships of Thai Yankee Bond Issues

The present study investigates the yield spread between Thai government bonds issued in the US domestic market ('Yankee' bonds) and US Treasury bonds, to determine the long–term equilibrium dynamics and the factors that affect changes in credit spreads. The sample period investigated was from May 5, 1999 to March 26, 2002. The results suggest that the long–term equilibrium relationship holds only between Thai Yankee bonds and long–term US bonds, rather than shorter or equivalent maturity bonds. Also, changes in the credit spreads of Thai Yankee bonds are generally negatively related to changes in the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) index (see http://www.set.or.th/th/index.html). Changes in US Treasury bonds also tend to negatively affect spreads on short Thai Yankee bonds and positively affect spreads on long Thai Yankee bonds, although other macroeconomic factors – including exchange rate and capital flow variables – were generally not important.     

中国短期融资券信用利差的实证研究

本文基于2007年4月至2009年8月的日数据,对中国五个主体信用级别短期融资券信用利差的决定因素进行了实证研究。实证结果表明各级别短期融资券信用利差与无风险利率指标负相关,与波动率指标正相关,从而验证了结构化模型在中国短期融资券市场的有效性。我们还发现国内短期融资券的信用利差与基于交易量的流动性指标总体上是正相关的。另外,实证模型解释力随信用级别的降低而单调上升,与欧美市场的实证结果是一致的。     

个人信用体系在消费信贷中的应用

消费信贷在我国发展至今,虽已取得一定的成绩,但是与西方发达国家水平相差甚远,其中的问题主要在于我国个人信用评价研究起步晚,缺乏国内统一的个人信用信息库以及完善的信用评价体系。消费信贷的发展是对国家经济有着巨大推动能力的,为使我国经济快速稳定的增长,构建适合我国国情的个人信用信息库和个人信用评价体系便成为当务之急。     

泡沫经济破灭前后日本银企信用风险管理制度及其功效分析

战后,日本金融体系效仿欧美国家建立起一系列信用风险管理制度。同时,根据市场主导型金融市场的特点,逐步建立起具有自身特点的信用风险管理制度。日本银企信用风险管理制度包括商业银行的内部控制制度、银行风险防御及挽救制度、商业银行外部监管制度。通过对日本银企信用风险管理制度的功效进行剖析,可以看出这一制度存在局限性并与日本的泡沫经济、金融危机、金融效率存在内在关系。     

新疆样本县（市）农户借贷行为调查分析

本文通过对新疆玛纳斯县、呼图壁县、吉木萨尔县、吐鲁番市、托克逊县农村信用社和农户的实地调查,对农户的借贷需求行为进行了分析,得出了农户借贷行为的特征。本文认为农户的经济行为特征和资金需求特征对其金融需求具有十分重要的影响。     

从实证视角看民族地区农村信用社的融资问题

文章以四川凉山州为调研对象,运用调查数据,分析民族地区农村信用社的金融服务特征及存在的问题.通过计量经济学的方法分析农户面临的融资约束,通过对比的方法对农村信用社在民族贫困地区的融资问题进行分析.分析结果表明:民族地区与其它地区相比,农村信用社金融服务供给不足,农户面临更大的融资约束;农户有较强的借贷需求,但有明显的金融抑制.     

一个基于简单线性模型的信贷政策有效性及影响因素分析

在当前间接融资为主的融资格局下,信贷政策是我国宏观调控的重要组成部分。信贷政策的有效性就成为当前经济发展中刻不容缓急需研究的热点问题。本文基于一个简单的货币信贷的供求模型对信贷政策有效性进行研究,以期对疏通宏观调控政策传导渠道、发展和完善信贷市场、提高宏观调控效果发挥一些积极的促进作用。     

户籍管制、信贷约束与农村留守子女教育投资

本文从户籍管制对农村留守子女教育投资入手,将户籍管制放松对家庭经济现状与决策的影响分解为两部分:一部分为户籍管制放松促使家庭成员调整时间分配,同时增加了家庭收入;另一部分为管制放松,导致农户对教育投资的预期收益发生了变动,从而改变教育投资额;之后,在建立家庭两期生产—消费模型的基础上,以家庭效用最大化为目标,结合不同的信贷条件,讨论这两种变动对农户教育投资行为的影响,得出了一组关于教育投资总额和农户家庭福利变化的结论,并建议了继续研究的方向。     

甘肃省信贷供给结构对经济增长作用的实证分析

本文选取甘肃省1989年-2010年度信贷供给和经济增长数据,通过建立VECM模型,对甘肃省信贷供给结构对经济增长作用进行分析,认为甘肃省经济增长与各期限贷款之间存在长期协整关系,且中长期和其他贷款对经济增长的促进作用最为明显。短期贷款对经济增长只有短期的促进效应,而长期促进效应为负;中长期和其他贷款虽然在短期内可能对经济增长存在一定的负向拉动作用,但在较长时期内对经济增长具有正向的促进作用。     

后危机时代哈萨克斯坦银行信用风险评析

正当全球进入“后危机时代”之时,哈萨克斯坦银行业却出现了业绩急速下滑、逾期贷款激增、坏账比例增多等问题,引起了IMF和国际评级机构的特别关注,哈萨克斯坦政府及时出台“反危机计划”,通过对“问题银行”的债务重组、注资等,扭转了哈萨克斯坦银行业的信用危机。然而,哈萨克斯坦银行业并没有完全走出危机的阴影,不良贷款、收不抵支等问题依然困扰着哈萨克斯坦的部分银行。本文从国际评级机构对哈萨克斯坦银行业的信用评价入手,结合哈萨克斯坦银行业的现状,对其进行潜在信用风险的分析,认为哈萨克斯坦银行业依然存在贷款质量低下、收不抵支、巨额亏损的信用风险。     

农村信用社改革对农村经济的影响及其未来取向

本文分析了我国农村信用社改革的历程,探讨了农村信用社改革对农村经济发展的推动作用和不利影响。本文认为,要更好地发挥信用社为农村经济发展服务的作用,就要以农村经济发展的需要为导向,不断改革信用社的产权组织形式和经营机制,促进使信用社自身的健康发展与农村经济发展之间形成良性互动。     

Debt rescheduling and the choice between bonds and loans for LDCs' foreign debt

This paper examines less developed country (LDC) borrowers' choice of financing methods. I devleop and test the hypothesis that ex-ante consideration of rescheduling affects LDC borrowers' choice between bonds and commercial loans. Banks can monitor and distinguish between permanent and temporary shocks, while bondholders cannot. Therefore, debt rescheduling based on the nature of economic shocks is feasible with loan financing. Our empirical findings indicate the debt rescheduling is considered exante in LDC lending. In addition, default risk and contract size affect the choice of financing instruments.     

Analysis on Balance Gap between Saving and Credit Account in China

In China, the balance gap of credit and saving account emerged in 1995, and its amount enlarged since then. By the end of Dec. 2005, with 28.7 trillion RMB saving balance and 19.5 trillion RMB gross credit account balance, the gap between saving and credit account was as large as 9.2 trillion RMB, which indicated a 67.8% of credit/saving ratio. Some believed this phenomenon was resulted from on one hand, the rapid growth of saving account; and on the other hand, relatively slower expanding of credit account. Some believed cooling down cash demand was behind the gap, while others claimed the balance gap caused dead capital and inefficiency service of saving account. In fact, the balance gap between credit and saving account might not necessarily relate to dead bank capital. And the phenomenon itself could not indicate the down-tendency of finance power that underlay economy. Nevertheless, it was liquidity not the balance gap should be regarded an index of capital situation in financial organizations. Therefore the balance gap between saving account and credit account could not be viewed as criteria against liquidity position. Solution of this problem should lay in boosting financial innovation among commercial banks, expending capital market and encouraging or permitting commercial banks as well as state-owed funds to enter share market and so on.     

The Effectiveness of Public Credit Guarantees in the Japanese Loan Market

This paper examines the effectiveness of public credit guarantee programs in not only increasing the availability of loans to small and medium enterprises (SMEs), but in also improving the ex-post performance of borrowing firms. Using a unique panel data set, we identify the effects of a massive credit guarantee program implemented by the Japanese government from 1998 to 2001. While we do find that the availability of loans increased for program participants, when loans were provided by undercapitalized banks the increased liquidity persisted for only a few years. Further, the ex-post performance of program participants, with the exception of firms with sizable net worth, deteriorated relative to their non-participating counterparts.     

农村信用社立足“三农”谋发展

农村信用社的改革进入关键时期,市场定位是关乎其发展的关键性问题,通过对农村信用社面临的内外环境分析,本文认为作为我国农村金融的主力军,联系农民的最好的金融纽带,农村信用社有其存在的理由,并有足够的发展空间,农村信用社必须立足“三农”才能实现经济金融共赢。同时分析了农村信用社“支农”现状,进而对“支农”措施作了几点探讨。     

流动性过剩:基于贷款供求非均衡模型的分析

本文利用对数似然方法估计商业银行贷款供求因素的非均衡模型,试图检验在商业银行贷款能力不下降的情况下,流动性过剩的信贷决定因素,并由此确认我国流动性过剩是贷款需求约束还是供给约束.实证分析结果表明,宏观经济调控中起关键作用的手段仍然是政府对信贷的控制,通过控制银行信贷总量而引起的总供求状况的改变会导致商业银行流动性的变化,因此,银行信贷供给约束造成我国经济中信贷收缩从而发生流动性过剩.     

基于二元Logistic模型的国内上市企业信用评级展望的影响因素研究

企业信用评级的迅速发展引起人们越来越关注企业信用评级展望的影响因素。本文通过选取84家样本企业和12个指标,使用二元Logistic模型对国内上市企业信用评级展望的影响因素进行实证研究。结果发现股价的β值和应收账款周转率是国内上市企业信用评级展望的影响因素,其中β值是主要因素。上述结果启示我们,国内上市企业可以通过降低营运风险和应收账款周转率来提高企业信用评级。     

基准转移、结构嵌入与信用离散——近世货币变迁中的白银问题

元明以降,白银逐步成为举国上下的基准货币,深度影响着中国社会经济的演进路径。围绕白银货币化至货币白银化的历史源起、动态过程、促动机理及影响评价等问题,学界存有广泛争议。本文认为在宋金元时期白银货币化向货币白银化的演进过程中,中国货币体系经历了“铜钱基准”的陵夷并转向“白银基准”的内在变动过程。宋金时期白银在“铜钱基准体系”中的作用不断上升,金元之际白银价值基准地位初步确立,为明代货币白银化的出现提供了条件。明代白银通过均则折纳、加耗、折价等形式成规模并结构性地嵌入贡赋体制,并与民间市场上的白银替代一道形成了难以逆转的货币白银化态势。对于中国以银为核心基准的近世货币结构而言,结合信用制度的角度可以看出,在西欧新兴国家信用日益聚合的趋势下,中国社会呈现出信用离散的特征。国家信用层级的缺失、金融技术与构架的迟滞及称量银本身所致的信用外在化、记账单位的紊乱是其最明显的表征,中西方金融体制在信用层面发生日益显见的分流。     

Technical and Scale Efficiencies for Chinese Rural Credit Cooperatives: A Bootstrapping Approach in Data Envelopment Analysis

This paper uses Markov-switching techniques to examine the presence of different market conditions on the Shanghai A-share market since the start of active trading in the mid-1990s. The originality of the paper lies in the identification of three contrasting regimes: a speculative market, a bull market and a bear market. Overall, the ‘Casino’ character of the Chinese stock market is the main feature that is substantiated by the present paper. However, the bull market regime is always a buffer zone between the other two regimes. After early 1997, an investor with a weekly horizon most of the time finds herself in the bear market and makes capital losses. Only during very short periods of ‘luck’ does she make substantial capital gains, which on average will compensate her for the losses.     

Independent invention during the rise of the corporate economy in Britain and Japan1

Independent inventors accounted for approximately half of all patents in Britain and Japan by 1930, despite the rise of the corporate economy and the spread of industrial R&D. A mixture of patent renewal and historical citations data reveals that the quality of independent invention was high. Active markets for inventions created incentives for independents, especially in large cities like London and Tokyo, which dominated spatially. Alongside evidence for the US, the findings show that in countries with different patent systems and at varying stages of economic development, a key component of overall inventive activity originated from outside the boundaries of firms.