The theory of probability: A key element in Keynes' revolution

Keynes believed that the "general theory" would create a revolution in economics. The extent to which his prophesy was realized, in part, depends on the definition of "key elements" in the general theory itself. This paper presents one of the key elements that led Keynes to believe the general theory might indeed create such a revolution. This key element is his theory of probability. Keynes' theory of probability evolved over time and resulted in his employing two distinctly different theories of probability in the general theory—one, implicitly, the other, explicitly. The first was an objective degree of belief theory of probability that was implicitly employed in the general theory. The second was a subjective degree of belief theory of probability that Keynes explicitly developed in the general theory. A previous version of this paper was presented at the Forty-Fourth International Atlantic Economic Society Conference in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, October 9–12, 1997, in the session entitled, "Macroeconomic Theory and Aggregative Models."     

The analytical preconditions for Keynes' theory of money

Evaluating Keynes' belief that the "general theory" would create a revolution in economics, depends, in part, on what defines the key elements of the general theory. This paper presents the analytical preconditions for one of these key elements, his liquidity preference theory of money. It is argued here that Keynes's liquidity preference theory of money was both a result of his own intellectual development and a theoretical necessity, given the rest of the theoretical structure of the general theory. Specifically, this paper argues that there were two analytical preconditions for the theory of money contained in the general theory. The first was Keynes' rejection of the quantity theory of money as the basis for conducting monetary policy, a theory he inherited from his English predecessors and he himself had embraced and to which he contributed earlier in his professional career. The second was his rejection of the neoclassical loanable funds theory of interest rate determination. A previous version of this paper was presented at the Forty-Sixth International Atlantic Economic Conference, Boston, MA, October 8–11, 1998.     

The logic of Keynes' criticism of the Classical model

The Classics' remedy for unemployment was to lower money wages. Keynes opposes this remedy. Therefore, in The General Theory, he aims at building a model in which a fall in money wages may not cause an increase in employment. Most of the interpretations of Keynes identified this aim, but did not attach enough importance to it. Reading The General Theory in the light of this aim, we discover what Keynes' logic of elaboration is, then what Keynes' ideas about voluntary or involuntary unemployment are.     

Social Security,Government Finance,and Savings*

This paper considers the impact of social security and the government financing mix on saving behaviour and aggregate economic activity. The theoretical argument for the neutrality of these actions is shown to have validity only if we consider the economy as behaving like a composite individual. Particular individuals do not face the same marginal rates of substitution and transformation as the hypothetical composite, due to corner solutions, illusions, and important distribution effects. Empirically, neutrality for the whole economy depends on the relative strengths of the offsetting forces faced by the individuals. Our findings with Australian data suggest that neither the level of aged pensions, nor the government financing mix, have substantial real effects on aggregate saving behaviour.     

Price Rigidities, Inflationary Finance and Long-run Growth*

The paper considers a monopolistically competitive intertemporally optimizing monetary economy featuring long-term growth. Inflation is generated through sluggish price-setting and contributes to budgetary finance through seignorage. This setup permits exploration of the interaction between inflation and growth in a tractable way. Superneutrality holds in the long but not the short run. The budget deficit fuels inflation with a hysteresis. Growth and inflation are negatively correlated in the long run, with causality running from the former to the latter, and positively correlated in the short run regardless of the origin of shocks. Price flexibility precipitates adjustment but appears also to destabilize output.     

Youth Wages, Risk, and Tertiary Finance Arrangements*

Human capital earnings functions typically explain a small fraction of the total variation in earnings. The considerable uncertainty associated with expected future earnings streams enhances the desirability of a loans scheme for higher education possessing income contingent characteristics on the repayment side. The Higher Education Contribution Scheme (HECS) possesses this feature The profitability of higher education even after taking account of the HECS suggests there is scope for higher student contributions. Other possible modifications to the HECS include higher repayment rates, a change to the tax base, and a minimum repayment amount     

Keynes' theory of money and his attack on the classical model

This paper centers on Keynes' theory of money and his attack on the classical model. Keynes criticized the self-correcting model of the British orthodoxy along two separate lines. In the first, in which Keynes' theory of money was crucial, he took the institutional variables as given and examined the functional relationships. Keynes' burden was to undermine what he termed the "classical dichotomy," where money was a veil, playing no role in determining output and employment. Two key features of the orthodox model were loanable funds and quantity theories, and Keynes' theory of money emerged from the rejection of these theories. The key to his attack on the classical dichotomy was the speculative demand for money, which he presented as an indirect, unstable function of the interest rate. Hence, Keynes linked money demand to the interest rate. The interest rate was thus determined by monetary variables rather than real factors, contrary to British orthodox opinion. Keynes then demonstrated that intended investment and saving need not be equal at a full employment equilibrium.A previous version of this paper was presented at the Fiftieth International Atlantic Economic Conference, October 15–18, 2000, Charleston, South Carolina. The authors are grateful to participants for their helpful suggestions. The authors are responsible for any remaining errors.     

环境财政:构建公共财政体制的突破口

本文在探讨环境财政与公共财政关系的基础上,提出了环境财政是构建公共财政体制突破口的命题,然后提出了建立环境财政的基本构想:一是发挥各级政府财政预算的主导作用;二是依靠政府主导建立高效的环保投融资体制;三是积极引导社会资金和境外资金投入环保领域;四是建立健全环境财政转移支付制度;五是建立健全环保资金监管机制.     

关系型融资理论述评

关系型融资是近年来西方金融中介理论研究的热点问题。本文全面介绍了西方经济学1990年以来对关系型融资的研究，包括关系型融资的概念及其现实形态，关系型融资得以存在的比较优势及其在变化着的金融环境中的发展前景，并分析了其在中国的可能应用。     

对国际转移价格的再思考

内部转移价格是跨国公司惯用的手段，传统文献一般把转移价格的目的限定在避税上，而考虑其商务策略目的的较少；将转移价格的压力仅仅局限于东道国和国税务部门，而很少考虑来自其他方面的压力。这些目的和压力对即将走出去的中国跨国公司也会有所启发。     

卡莱斯基增长模型的重新思考

鉴于卡莱斯基增长模型存在把经济增长完全归结为技术因素、只注重经济流量分析、适用范围窄等缺陷,本文将资本存量加入其中,使之成为一个可以反映市场经济关系的增长模型.同时,引入有效需求分析,得出一个重要结论:经济中收入流量时资本存量的变动,是导致有效需求不足问题的主要原因.为此,本文建议,在运用凯恩斯主义政策解决经济问题时,也必须注重对资本存量的调整.     

卡菜斯基增长模型的重新思考

鉴于卡莱斯基增长模型存在把经济增长完全归结为技术因素、只注重经济流量分析、适用范围窄等缺陷,本文将资本存量加入其中,使之成为一个可以反映市场经济关系的增长模型。同时,引入有效需求分析,得出一个重要结论：经济中收入流量对资本存量的变动,是导致有效需求不足问题的主要原因。为此,本文建议,在运用凯恩斯主义政策解决经济问题时,也必须注重对资本存量的调整。     

从二元财政到一元财政--国有资本财政向公共财政的转变

国有资本财政是我国目前财政体系的重要组成部分，因其作为财政范畴所包含的内在矛盾。必然处于动态变化过程中。随着国有企业改革的逐步深入，国有资本的公共属性将日益明显。国有资本财政最终将被公共财政所同化。     

基于动态能力的企业知识管理动态策略模型研究

本文从知识管理的概念界定与静态策略的确定入手，基于对企业动态能力演进路径的考察，对企业动态能力演进的阶段进行了划分；并针对动态能力形成的不同阶段，结合企业知识管理的关注重点，提出了企业知识管理动态策略模型，为企业知识管理动态策略的选择提供了现实可行的理论分析框架。     

Creativity and/or Alertness: A Reconsideration of the Schumpeterian Entrepreneur

The Review of Austrian Economics -