自然资源丰裕度与经济增长——从制度视角探析“资源诅咒”

近年来．自然资源丰裕度与经济增长的关系引起了人们的广泛关注,一些经验研究表明,丰富的自然资源可能是经济发展的诅咒而不是祝福。本文基于学术界关于“资源诅咒”假说的理论与实证研究．简要评析了资源阻滞经济增长的经典理论,并在此基础上构建了自然资源丰裕度、制度与经济增长相互作用关系的理论分析框架,把对“资源诅咒”现象的解释最终都统一到制度的框架之下。本文强调,自然资源是诅咒还是祝福,主要依赖于制度质量．有效的制度对经济增长的作用是决定性的．     

政治制度、资源禀赋与经济增长——来自全球85个主要国家的经验

文章从制度的三个层面即制度综合指数、制度设计以及制度效能来探讨制度与"资源诅咒"的关系。研究结果表明:资源无罪,制度无价。在那些"制度优良"的国家,资源成了"恩赐",反之则资源成了"诅咒";政体的形式(政治安排)直接决定着资源禀赋与经济增长的关系,总统制的国家倾向于"资源诅咒",议会制的国家倾向于"资源恩赐";制度效能同样影响着资源增值效应的方向,随着规则质量、法制能力、反腐能力、政府效力的提高,"资源诅咒"让位于"资源恩赐",规则质量和法制能力的增长效应较大。     

政治制度、资源禀赋与经济增长——来自全球85个主要国家的经验北大核心CSSCISSCI

文章从制度的三个层面即制度综合指数、制度设计以及制度效能来探讨制度与"资源诅咒"的关系。研究结果表明:资源无罪,制度无价。在那些"制度优良"的国家,资源成了"恩赐",反之则资源成了"诅咒";政体的形式(政治安排)直接决定着资源禀赋与经济增长的关系,总统制的国家倾向于"资源诅咒",议会制的国家倾向于"资源恩赐";制度效能同样影响着资源增值效应的方向,随着规则质量、法制能力、反腐能力、政府效力的提高,"资源诅咒"让位于"资源恩赐",规则质量和法制能力的增长效应较大。     

浅议资源诅咒的形成机理及基悖论

在古典经济学家眼中,资源是经济体增长不可或缺的重要因素之一。然而,随着越来越多的自然资源匮乏国家或地区的经济快速增长和一些自然资源丰富国家或地区的经济长期出现增长缓慢甚至停滞现象大量出现,一些经济学家开始怀疑自然资源在经济增长中的作用,以致于有经济学家提出资源诅咒了经济的增长。文章通过分析认为,资源诅咒是不成立的,制度因素才是经济增长的阻碍因素,因此与其说是资源诅咒,不如说是制度诅咒。     

资源生产、资源消费与经济增长:理论与实证——来自跨国面板数据的证据

文章将自然资源引入Romer(1990)的内生经济增长模型中,建立了一个包括四部门的封闭经济系统,通过理论模型推导得到,资源消费对地区经济增长具有促进作用,资源生产对地区经济增长具有阻碍作用,"资源诅咒"的传导机制主要表现为资源型经济对人力资本的挤出效应。此外,文章基于OECD和BRICS 37个国家的跨国面板数据,采用系统GMM估计方法实证检验了资源生产(开发)和资源消费对经济增长的影响,回归结果进一步表明,资源生产和资源消费对地区经济增长的影响存在异质性。对于资源开发地区(资源供给者)而言,自然资源是"诅咒";对于资源需求者而言,自然资源是"福音","资源生产诅咒"和"资源消费福音"命题在跨国层面显著成立,摆脱"资源陷阱"依然是资源丰裕国家(地区)急需解决的关键问题。     

资源生产、资源消费与经济增长:理论与实证——来自跨国面板数据的证据北大核心CSSCISSCI

文章将自然资源引入Romer(1990)的内生经济增长模型中,建立了一个包括四部门的封闭经济系统,通过理论模型推导得到,资源消费对地区经济增长具有促进作用,资源生产对地区经济增长具有阻碍作用,"资源诅咒"的传导机制主要表现为资源型经济对人力资本的挤出效应。此外,文章基于OECD和BRICS 37个国家的跨国面板数据,采用系统GMM估计方法实证检验了资源生产(开发)和资源消费对经济增长的影响,回归结果进一步表明,资源生产和资源消费对地区经济增长的影响存在异质性。对于资源开发地区(资源供给者)而言,自然资源是"诅咒";对于资源需求者而言,自然资源是"福音","资源生产诅咒"和"资源消费福音"命题在跨国层面显著成立,摆脱"资源陷阱"依然是资源丰裕国家(地区)急需解决的关键问题。     

自然资源是"福音"还是"诅咒":基于制度的分析

自然资源是经济增长的过程中的一个要素,理论上这个要素能够扩大生产可能性边界,但是,现实生活中自然资源常常阻碍了经济增长,而缺少自然资源的地区反而可能有更快的增长速度.自然资源是福音还是诅咒,主要原因在于制度质量的差异.倾向于强占者的制度和资源制造了一个增长陷阱,阻碍了经济增长;倾向于生产者的制度能使其充分利用丰裕的自然资源,有效地促进经济增长.     

自然禀赋与经济增长:对“资源诅咒”命题的再检验

本文以1970～2000年世界各国的经济增长差异为研究对象,对自然禀赋与经济增长之间的相关性进行了分析和检验。计量分析的结果表明,在控制了制度、人力资本、投资、开放度、价格变化等因素后,自然资源的丰裕度与经济增长之间存在着显著的负相关性,“资源诅咒”的命题确实成立。在此基础上,本文对丰裕的自然资源阻滞经济增长的机理进行了分析。结果表明,制度落后、排挤人力资本、“荷兰病”是资源阻滞经济增长的主要作用渠道。     

自然资源丰裕、制度质量与经济发展关系的研究

本文利用1998-2005年中国省级面板数据,采用两阶段最小二乘法(2SLS)克服制度内生性,考察了自然资源丰裕度对我国区域经济增长的影响,在地区层面检验了"资源诅咒"假设,并对其传导路径进行了实证分析.结果表明,自然资源丰裕度对经济增长产生负面影响,并通过降低制度质量、人力资本积累阻碍经济增长,其中制度质量是最主要的传导机制.     

欠发达地区基于资源的经济发展研究——青海省海西州经济增长的实证分析

文章在分析资源禀赋理论与经济增长关系的一般原理的基础上,研究了青海省海西州经济增长现状,特别是经济增长与资源禀赋之间的关系,并结合国内外相关的研究结论,对资源禀赋和"资源诅咒"进行了理论反思。     

DISCOUNT RATE DISTORTIONS AND THE RESOURCE CURSE

Empirical evidence has suggested a “resource curse” exists, in which countries with abundant resources may have higher initial consumption but then grow more slowly. The effect appears to be dependent on a country's political structure. Theoretical models not typically accounted for historical exceptions, or have not shown the effect exists in a dynamic growth setting. We derive the resource curse effect in an optimal growth model augmented with a political process. The economy has a finite nonrenewable resource, and the government planner can choose to over‐extract natural resources relative to the efficient path by distorting the discount rate, but in so doing incurs political costs that depend on the presence of democracy. Government planners in non‐democratic countries usually have more autonomy in policymaking than those in democratic countries; therefore, the political cost is lower for non‐democratic countries. We show that the incentive for the planner to distort the extraction path is larger, the higher is the initial resource endowment. Consistent with empirical evidence, the distortion raises short‐term consumption but lowers the long‐term growth rate, and institutional differences create corner solutions that explain why some resource‐abundant countries avoid the curse. These results are robust to the inclusion of autonomous technological change.     

Impact of international development aid on FDI along the Belt and Road

Both IDA and FDI are very important external financing channels for B&R countries. Considering B&R countries as the sample, this paper analyzes the impact of the IDA received by B&R countries on their FDI from both theoretical and empirical perspectives. Based on the different research objectives and data availability, the empirical analysis is considered as two sections. In the time series analysis, we use VECM model and the impulse response function to test the dynamic effects of different types of IDA on the FDI from the perspective of donor countries, and find that whether in the short, medium or long term, the complementary factor form of the aid to the recipient countries can promote FDI, and the material capital form of the aid to the recipient countries can crowd out their FDI. In the panel regression analysis, we examine the overall impact of the total amount of IDA accepted by the B&R recipient countries on FDI, including the direct impact of IDA on FDI and the moderating effects of institutional environment. Considering the direct impact, the results of the fixed effect regression analysis confirm the significantly negative effects of total IDA accepted by B&R recipient countries on their FDI. In the regression analysis of controlling endogeneity problem, the product terms of IDA variables and institutional environment variables are added to the regression models, and the results show that the institutional environment has significantly positive moderating effects in the process of IDA influencing FDI, indicating that the interaction between IDA and institutional environment helps to improve the impact of IDA on FDI and increase the attractiveness of recipient countries to FDI.     

对外直接投资、母国营商环境与母国技术进步——基于门槛模型的检验

近年来,日趋复杂的国际环境影响企业的投资信心与决策。在学界,对外直接投资(OFDI)与技术进步的关联逐渐成为热点话题,随着各国不断优化营商环境,母国营商环境对二者的关联产生什么样的影响呢？鉴于鲜有文献探讨这一具有重要意义的话题,文章尝试将营商环境纳入基于企业利润最大化的理论模型,从母国营商环境视角阐释OFDI与母国技术进步的非线性关系;在此基础上,以2004—2020年115个经济体的面板数据为样本,运用Hansen门槛模型进行实证检验。研究表明:第一,在母国营商环境的影响下,OFDI与母国技术进步存在"V型"关系,即随着营商环境的改善,OFDI对技术进步具有"先抑制后促进"的影响。第二,OFDI对母国技术进步的非线性影响具有国家异质性。当营商环境超过一定临界值后,发达国家与新兴国家OFDI对技术进步均具有显著的正向影响,但发达国家的营商环境临界值更大,新兴国家的正向影响效应更强。第三,在解决内生性问题、替换指标和估计方法之后,实证结果依然稳健。最后进一步指出,在新发展格局下,我国在进行深层次改革、优化营商环境的同时,必须坚持扩大开放、提高对外直接投资质量,增强OFDI对我国技术进步的促进作用。     

资源诅咒论与初级产品论的比较及其启示

自然资源在经济发展中究竟起着怎样的作用,资源诅咒论和初级产品论分别给出了不同的回答。根据对19世纪农牧产品出口国的案例研究,初级产品论声称在联系效应带动下资源开发可以帮助国家脱贫致富。资源诅咒论则根据二战结束以来矿产出口国经济数据的计量分析,得出资源丰裕更多的是诅咒而非福音的结论,其核心逻辑是挤出效应。比较研究说明:资源是福还是祸关键要看开发战略是否正确,我国资源富集区应实行资源就地转化战略,以科技创新带动资源型经济转型,并且要通过改革实现对资源价值的完全补偿和资源收益分配的公平合理。     

基于新C-D生产函数的广东省经济增长实证研究

本文构建引入制度变量的新C—D生产函数。研究资本、劳动、科技和制度要素共同作用下的经济增长，运用广东省的时间序列数据进行了实证分析。发现改革开放25年来广东省经历了以“开放化、市场化、民营化”为主要内容的三次制度创新，平均制度变革速率达15．17％；资本、劳动、科技、制度的产出弹性分别为0．41、0．43、0．16、0．029，对经济增长的贡献率分别为58．4％、10．4％、27．5％、3．7％；经济增长的粗放特征较为明显，以转变经济增长方式为核心的新一轮制度创新势在必行。     

Does institutional freedom matter for global forest carbon sinks in the face of economic development disparity?

Mitigating global warming is the responsibility of all countries. Moreso, the role of forests in sequestrating carbon is very crucial. Most environmental organizations are active in protecting the environment according to their objectives. This paper investigates the relationship between institutional freedom and forest carbon sinks by using a panel threshold model with 139 countries to verify the U-shaped relationship between forest carbon sinks and economic development. The U-shaped curve between forest carbon sinks and economic development is the same as the environmental Kuznets curve. The impact of institutional freedom on forest carbon sinks under different economic development thresholds is analyzed. Institutional freedom harms forest carbon sinks when the country experiences lower economic growth. Further analysis shows that when economic development is high, there are positive effects, and the beneficial effects of institutional freedom on the forest carbon sink gradually enhance as the threshold value increases. The article clarifies the relationship between institutional freedom and forest carbon sinks and also provides implications for making forest management strategies and climate mitigation policies.     

Resource abundance and economic growth in China

This paper revisits the resource curse phenomenon in China and differs from the previous studies in four respects: (i) City-level data is used; (ii) A spatial variable is constructed to estimate the diffusion effect of natural resources among cities in the same province; (iii) The impact of resource abundance on economic development is investigated not only at the city level but also at the prefectural level in China; (iv) We use a functional coefficient regression model to deal with city-specific heterogeneity and, at the same time, analyze the transmission mechanism of the resource curse phenomenon. Our empirical results show that there is no significant evidence to support the existence of a resource curse phenomenon in China. On the other hand, we find that the degree of natural resource abundance in a city has a positive diffusion effect on the economic growth of neighboring cities within the same province at the city level, but not at prefectural levels. We attribute this to the urban bias policy.     

INSTITUTIONS,BANKING DEVELOPMENT,AND ECONOMIC GROWTH

Does the institutional environment affect the causal relationship between banking development and economic growth? In the theoretical section of this paper, we develop an endogenous growth model where the institutional environment is captured through two indicators: judicial system efficiency and easiness of informal trade. We show that an improvement in the institutional environment has two effects. First, it intensifies the causality direction from banking to economic growth through a reduction in defaulting loans. Second, it reduces the interest rate spread. In the empirical section of the paper, we find bidirectional causality when analyzing 22 Middle Eastern and North African countries over the period 1984–2004. The first causality, which runs from banking development to economic growth, is more intense in countries with more developed institutional environment. The second causality runs from economic growth to banking and indicates that a more developed economy has a more developed banking system.     

The Role of Property Rights in the Relationship between Capital Flows and Economic Growth in SSA: Do Natural Resources Endowment and Country Income Level Matter?

This paper studies the role played by the quality of property rights in the linkages of international capital flows into sub‐Saharan African (SSA) economies. Using panel data of 36 SSA countries over the period 1996–2015 and the ARDL procedure with the Pooled Mean Group regression method appropriate for non‐stationary panel data estimation, we account for the joint effects of property rights quality and openness to foreign capital flows on economic growth. We uncover the existence of a property rights quality threshold beyond which property rights either amplifies the spillovers effects or attenuates the negative effect of capital flows on economic growth. For instance, it takes a level of property rights of at least 60 to have a positive long‐term impact of capital flows on economic growth in natural resource‐poor African countries. The quality of property rights matters more to obtain spillover effects of capital flows on growth in natural resource‐poor countries than in their peer natural resource‐rich countries. Finally, with regard to the countries' income levels, capital flows have significant long‐term spillovers effects on economic growth in advanced African economies than in their low‐income peers.     

Savings,Growth and the Resource Curse Hypothesis

An important connection between recent attempts to understand the determinants of economic growth and the measurement of sustainability is the finding of a negative and significant relationship between natural resource abundance and economic growth. This is the so-called resource curse hypothesis. Using cross-country regressions, we offer evidence that the curse may itself be a manifestation of the inability of governments to manage large resource revenues sustainably. In particular, these results offer another perspective on the resource curse hypothesis: the countries where growth has lagged are those where the combination of natural resource, macroeconomic and public expenditure policies have led to a low rate of genuine saving (net saving adjusted for resource depletion).