Zero‐interest Rate Policy and Unintended Consequences in Emerging Markets

Since 2009, central banks in the major advanced economies have held interest rates at very low levels to stabilise financial markets and support the recovery of their economies. This paper outlines the unintended consequences of the prolonged period of very low world funding interest rates in emerging markets. The paper is informed by a Mises–Hayek‐BIS view on credit booms and Mises' law of unintended consequences. Consistent with the presented credit boom view, I provide evidence that the very low world funding interest rates are associated with a rise in volatile capital flows and asset market bubbles in fast‐growing emerging markets. In line with Mises' law, I further show that these unintended consequences give rise to a new wave of interventionism as policymakers in emerging markets increasingly reintroduce financially repressive measures to isolate the economies from foreign capital inflows.     

Transmission of central bank communication to emerging economies: Evidence from the Korean stock market

This study analyzes the impact of US central bank communication on financial markets in emerging economies. We find that informal communication from the Fed positively influences the Korean stock market at a greater magnitude than the US stock market. The results show that the Korean stock market experienced higher excess return when Korea's monetary policy decisions are uncertain, suggesting that central bank communication in central countries could transmit to emerging economics through their monetary policy decisions and uncertainty. In addition, various portfolios and individual equities have a positive market risk-return tradeoff in the presence of Fed communication only.     

Impact of the Financial Crisis on Cross‐Border Mergers and Acquisitions and Concentration in the Global Banking Industry

The global banking industry has seen dramatic changes in the past 40 years. Most recently, the financial liberalization of emerging markets and the global financial crisis have significantly impacted the market share of banks worldwide. This article investigates the impact of the 2007–2008 financial crisis on cross‐border mergers and acquisitions (M&As) in the banking sector and emphasizes the role of emerging‐market banks in the postcrisis consolidation trend. Using M&A data and concentration data over the period 2000–2013, our analysis indicates that the financial crisis had a significant impact on worldwide M&As, especially on the direction of the transactions. Emerging‐market banks appear to be major acquirers in the postcrisis period, targeting both neighboring countries and developed economies in Europe. We also observe an increase in bank concentration in developed markets most hit by the financial crisis, especially in the United States and the United Kingdom, whereas bank concentration decreased in emerging markets. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Dove or Hawk? Characterizing monetary policy regime switches in India

The past two decades have witnessed a worldwide move by emerging markets to adopt explicit or implicit inflation targeting regimes. A notable and often discussed exception to this trend, of course, is China which follows a pegged exchange rate regime supported by capital controls. Another major exception is India. It is not clear how to characterize the monetary regime or identify the nominal monetary anchor in India. Is central bank policy in India following a predictable rule that is heavily influenced by a quasi inflation target? And how has the monetary regime been affected by the gradual process of financial liberalization in India? To address these points, we investigate monetary policy regime change in India using a Markov switching model to estimate a time-varying Taylor-type rule for the Reserve Bank of India. We find that the conduct of monetary policy over the last two decades can be characterized by two regimes, which we term ‘Hawk’ and ‘Dove.’ In the first of these two regimes, the central bank reveals a greater relative (though not absolute) weight on controlling inflation vis-à-vis narrowing the output gap. The central bank however was found to be in the “Dove” regime about half of our sample period, focusing more on the output gap and exchange rate targets to stimulate exports, rather than moderating inflation. India thus seems to be following its own direction in the conduct of monetary policy, seemingly not overly influenced by the emphasis on quasi-inflation targeting seen in many emerging markets.     

新兴经济体能拯救全球经济危机吗——基于进口贸易视角的评估

文章通过考察新兴经济体各类商品在世界的进口地位、进口来源以及各经济体进口结构的变化,探究新兴经济体能否在日后担当起维护世界市场、促进全球贸易格局平衡的重任。从1990年到2007年,新兴经济体进口占世界总进口的份额持续攀升,已经成为世界贸易体系中不可忽视的产品销售市场,这些经济体的进口在很大程度上是由发展制造业并进行出口驱动的。新兴经济体进口最终产品占世界总进口的份额发生了较大幅度的上升,然而该份额仍然较小,新兴经济体的最终产品市场,特别是消费品市场仍有待开发。因此,在突如其来的经济危机降临之际,这些经济体在短期内尚无法担当起拯救危机的重任,但发达国家通过种种努力可以在未来进一步开拓新兴经济体市场。     

Do Foreign Investors Promote Stock Price Efficiency in Emerging Markets?

This paper examines the role of foreign investors in promoting stock price efficiency in emerging stock markets relying on the fact that stock prices in these markets are influenced by both local and global factors. We employ a data sample of Vietnamese‐listed firms on the Ho Chi Minh City stock exchange over the period from 2006 to 2015. We utilize the panel data estimation analysis. The results show that foreign investors accelerate the incorporation of available information into local stock prices. The finding reinforces the important role of foreign investors in domestic stock markets of emerging economies.     

Liquidity and macroeconomic management in emerging markets

Emerging markets have received considerable attention for foreign investment and international diversification due to the possibility of higher earnings and a low level of integration with global equity markets. These high returns often need to be balanced by the high liquidity costs of trading in illiquid emerging markets. Several studies have shown that central bank and government policies are significant determinants of market liquidity. We investigate the influence of monetary and fiscal policy variables on the market and firm level liquidity of eight emerging stock markets of Asia. Using four different (il)liquidity measures and nine macroeconomic variables, we find that changes in the money supply, government expenditure and private borrowing significantly affect stock market liquidity. Illiquidity is also strongly affected by the bank rate, short-term interest rate and government borrowing. We demonstrate that ‘crowding out’ and ‘cost of funds’ effects exist in these markets. Other major findings are that some markets are more sensitive to local macroeconomic news than world factors, the impact on size based portfolios largely depends on the instruments used by the central banks and government, the liquidity of the manufacturing sector is affected by changes in any policy variables, financial institutions are only influenced by monetary policy variables, and the service sector is least affected.     

Global Volatility and Forex Returns in East Asia*

During 2001–2010, increases in mature market volatility were associated with declines in forex returns for East Asian economies, consistent with an overall ‘flight to safety’ effect. Estimates from GARCH models suggest that a 10 percentage point increase in mature market equity volatility generated an exchange rate depreciation of up to 3/4 percent. This sensitivity rose during a more tranquil subsample for some countries, reflecting their greater integration with global financial markets. Long‐run forex volatility increased in Asian economies after 2008, reflecting the global reach of the financial crisis in mature markets. Unconditional standard deviations estimated from these models provide operational measures of ‘long‐term’ and ‘excess’ volatility in forex markets.     

Corporate governance,bank concentration and economic growth

We examine the effects of bank concentration and corporate governance among firms in terms of economic growth using panel data for 34 countries and 29 manufacturing sectors over the period 1980–2010. We show the following results: First, bank concentration exerts a negative effect on growth for industries that are most dependent on external financing. However, for countries with a high level of corporate governance bank concentration is less harmful to economic growth. Our results have important policy implications for emerging markets. Most importantly, they suggest that high corporate governance is a crucial means for promoting growth and prosperity in developing and emerging economies, in which we commonly observe under-developed financial sectors and high levels of bank concentration.     

Emerging‐Market Firms Venturing into Advanced Economies: The Role of Context

Sociocultural, economic, political, and institutional differences between countries increase uncertainty and complexity in today's highly competitive international business environment. Moreover, the “West‐Leads‐East” to “West‐Meets‐East” shift in the global economy requires firms in both advanced economies and emerging markets to seek sustainable solutions by collaborating across geographic boundaries. Such novel collaborative partnerships may help build a stable, resilient, and sustainable world economy by leveraging the resources and capabilities of firms from both advanced and emerging economies. This article has three general objectives. First, we seek to show that context has been a long‐standing issue in management, organization, and international business research and provide an overview of the puzzles that informed and motivated this special issue. Second, we highlight the key insights and contributions of the articles included in this special issue by reviewing their theoretical underpinnings, methodological approaches, and empirical findings. Finally, we outline a future research agenda on emerging‐market firms venturing into advanced economies that can help advance international business and management studies. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Foreign exchange market intervention and asymmetric preferences

Central banks in many emerging market economies intervene in currency markets to mitigate volatility and counter appreciation/depreciation pressure. This paper investigates whether central banks in twenty four emerging economies are “leaning against the wind” in their intervention strategies, whether they have an asymmetric response to exchange rate movements, and whether the response changes after the Global Financial Crisis. Our empirical investigation finds solid evidence that they prefer to dampen appreciation pressures more substantially than depreciation pressures, even after the crisis.     

Cyclical wage movements in emerging markets compared to developed economies: a general equilibrium comment

I examine distinct cyclical properties of labor markets in emerging economies compared to developed ones from a general equilibrium perspective. The evidence in emerging economies shows that (1) wages are more volatile than income, while (2) employment is less volatile and (3) less pro-cyclical than in developed economies. I use a standard open-economy model to study the implications of wealth effects on labor market dynamics in both emerging and developed economies simultaneously. In contrast to the (partial equilibrium) results of the small open economy (SOE) model, I show that in general equilibrium, strong wealth effects on labor supply in emerging economies are necessary to rationalize the evidence. The model is also consistent with empirical regularities of exchange rate fluctuations, namely (1) excess volatility of real exchange rates, and (2) the negative co-movement between the real exchange rate and relative consumption.     

The neglected need for strategic renewal in emerging markets: Lessons from Vietnam in transition

Research on strategy in emerging markets is based on overly static representations, paying insufficient attention to the impact of contextual change on the value of firms’ resources. This article examines how a sample of the most successful Vietnamese private companies during the first decade of their country's transition from central planning was affected by the shifting rules of the game in their business environment. I suggest the primary takeaway is that sustained superior performance in an environment with changing keys to success requires dedicated and ongoing strategic renewal. I also suggest the need for both scholars and managers to immerse themselves in emerging markets if they care to fully understand the granular ways in which these settings differ from more familiar advanced economies.     

The Economics of Exchange‐Rate Regimes: A Review Essay

The exchange‐rate regime issue has taken centre‐stage in discussions of international economic policy. Much of the profession appears to have been converted to ‘the hypothesis of the vanishing middle regime’; for countries well‐integrated into world capital markets, there is little, if any, middle ground between floating exchange rates and monetary unification. This paper considers the exchange‐rate‐regime issue in the context of recent books on the subject by W. Max Corden and Morris Goldstein. Both authors prescribe managed floating exchange rates, supplemented with inflation targeting, for emerging‐market economies. Under managed floating, and with a credible monetary policy, the public finances in order, and strengthened debt management and prudential regulation, the exchange rate is free to act as a market gauge for assessing policies and as a mode of conflict resolution. Both authors also argue, however, that no exchange‐rate regime is a Holy Grail. Ultimately, a credible exchange‐rate regime depends upon the trust evoked by governments. There is no exchange‐rate regime, whether of the managed‐floating or hard‐fix variety, that can eradicate a history of failed stabilisation attempts.     

Factors Influencing Growth Potential of E‐Commerce in Emerging Economies: An Institution‐Based N‐OLI Framework and Research Propositions

Given the tremendous success of the Internet and e‐commerce in developed countries, emerging economies are quickly embracing information technology as well. The purpose of this study is to examine factors (both determinants and deterrents) influencing the growth potential of e‐commerce in emerging economies from a multitheoretical perspective (namely, institution‐based network‐ownership, location, and internalization, i.e., i‐based N‐OLI framework). Factors are identified at three levels. At the global level, we identify multilateral agreements, strategic behavior of multinational enterprises (MNEs), and technological innovation as the key factors. At the national level, institutional environment, infrastructure, and culture are identified. The transactional level examines the role of integrity of transactions, online intermediaries, and network externalities and value clustering as the key factors for growth of e‐commerce in emerging economies. Based on the multitheoretical framework, the study advances several propositions and highlights implications for MNEs, both from developed markets and emerging markets, operating in emerging economies. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Communicating CSR practices – Role of internationalization of emerging market firms

Emerging markets suffer from institutional voids, and in such resource deficient economies, corporate social responsibility is given scant attention. However, when firms from emerging markets globalize, international stakeholders become suspicious about firms’ products, services, and business practices. Grounded in the liability of emergingness and legitimacy theory and using a sample of 134 manufacturing firms from one emerging market, India, this study explores how firms’ international diversification intent and market-seeking motives influence emerging markets’ firms communication of socially responsible activities as an attempt to eliminate illegitimacy. Furthermore, the study reveals that business group affiliation enhances the influence of internationalization on firms’ communication of socially responsible activities.     

The Asian economy: current state of play and future prospects

The global financial crisis, the so-called great world recession and recovery have had a serious impact on the Asian and global economies. Together, they managed to engender significant transformation in the contours of both the Asian and global economies. For instance, Asian economies presently depend less on markets in the advanced industrial economies and, due to their enlarging markets, can and did make a substantive contribution to the global recovery. They spearheaded the economic recovery from the global financial crisis. The post-crisis Asian economy is the third pole of the global economy. Significantly, the emerging market economies of Asia did not magnify the external shock this time and performed more like the advanced industrial economies. After a robust recovery in 2010, growth became somewhat subdued in 2011. Projections show that economic performance in the region in 2012 will not be very different from that in 2011 (see WB [World Bank] 2012).     

Flying under the radar: Foreign firm visibility and the efficacy of political strategies in emerging economies

Although emerging markets hold great potential, foreign firms operating in those markets are exposed to a comparatively higher level of risk as compared to developed markets. We examine the role of foreign firms’ visibility in shaping the effect of the strategies they deploy to reduce their exposure to environmental risk. Building on and extending research on political strategies we develop hypotheses and test them against data from 173 MNE subsidiaries operating in six emerging economies. We find that visibility affects not only the strength, but also the direction of the association between political strategies and foreign firms’ exposure to risk. Our findings enhance understanding of the use of different political strategies for reducing their exposure to risk and of the moderating role of their visibility in emerging markets.     

The performance implications of outsourcing customer support to service providers in emerging versus established economies

Recent discussions in the business press query the contribution of customer-support outsourcing to firm performance. Despite the controversy surrounding its performance implications, customer-support outsourcing is still on the rise, especially to emerging markets. Against this backdrop, we study under which conditions customer-support outsourcing to providers from emerging versus established economies is more versus less successful. Our performance measure is the stock-market reaction around the outsourcing announcement date. While the stock market reacts, on average, more favorably when customer-support is outsourced to providers located in emerging markets as opposed to established economies, approximately 50% of the outsourcing firms in our sample experience negative abnormal returns. We find that the shareholder-value implications of customer-support outsourcing to emerging versus established economies are contingent on the nature of the customer support that is being outsourced and on the nature of the outsourcing firm. Customer-support outsourcing to emerging markets is less beneficial for services that are characterized by personal customer contact and high knowledge embeddedness than for customer-support services that involve impersonal customer contact and are low on knowledge embeddedness. Firms higher in marketing resource intensity and larger firms benefit more from outsourcing customer-support services to emerging markets than firms lower in marketing resource intensity and smaller firms.     

Exchange Rate Effects on Domestic Prices in Bulgaria and Poland: Progress in Making Markets?

The economic liberalization which has occurred in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) over the past 15 years generally has involved establishing domestic markets and privatizing state‐owned firms, both with the intention of integrating the CEE economies into the global economy and allowing the benefits of competition to be realized. We explore how well this has been accomplished in two countries, Poland and Bulgaria, and the domestic conditions that contribute to its accomplishment. The sensitivity of domestic markets to international shocks, as reflected in exchange rate effects on domestic prices, may be viewed as an indicator of how integrated a country’s markets are into the global economy, and a proxy for competition in those markets. In explaining variation in exchange‐rate pass‐through, we examine the impact of market structure, economic liberalization and infrastructure as factors contributing to the development of competitive markets. We find that although integration into global markets can significantly increase market competitiveness, domestic factors also play a significant role.