Determinants of Bilateral Trade Flows in OECD Countries: Evidence from Gravity Panel Data Models

This paper aims to identify the main causes of bilateral trade flows in OECD countries. The specific features of the study include the explicit introduction of R&D and FDI as the two important explanatory variables, conduct of unit root tests in the panel data framework and careful consideration of endogeneity. The main findings are that the levels and similarities of market size, domestic R&D stock and inward FDI stock are positively related to bilateral trade, while the distance, measured by both geographical distance and relative factor endowment, between trade partner countries has a negative impact. These findings lend support to new trade, FDI and new growth theories.     

双边贸易的本地市场效应——基于东亚地区制造业部门的实证研究

本文基于2000-2006年东亚地区主要经济体间的双边贸易数据,研究并检验了该地区制造业部门双边贸易的本地市场效应。结果发现:东亚地区制造业部门的双边贸易整体上并不存在本地市场效应,只有个别行业表现出了显著的本地市场效应;而由相对要素禀赋条件和人均GDP所决定的传统比较优势因素对该地区制造业贸易模式的决定和影响仍是非常重要;此外,我们还发现劳动密集型产品是东亚地区制造业部门双边贸易的主要产品,必需品又是其中的主导消费部门。     

外商直接投资与服务贸易国际竞争力——来自77个国家的经验证据

近年来,部分学者在FDI对服务贸易国际竞争力的影响效应方面进行了研究,结论却截然不同。为从一般意义上揭示两者间的关系,文章选取77个国家1980-2008年相关数据,并采取只考虑出口因素的lnRXA指数及同时考虑进出口因素的RC指数来衡量服务贸易国际竞争力,分别从总体、经济发展水平及服务业FDI限入水平三个层面进行了实证检验,结果表明:总体来看,FDI流入不会提高一国服务贸易国际竞争力,而不同经济发展水平及服务业FDI限入水平国家的FDI流入会产生不同的影响效应;除高限入水平国家外,服务业GDP不会提升服务贸易国际竞争力;服务出口及货物出口分别会对服务贸易国际竞争力产生显著的正向及负向影响效应。此外,服务贸易国际竞争力衡量指数选取的不同会造成FDI流入的影响效应产生较大差异。     

Trade Liberalisation and Economic Performance: Theory and Evidence for Developing Countries

The last five decades have witnessed a profound evolution of economic policy in developing countries, particularly in the case of trade strategies. Both internal, as well as external, factors have prompted the need for more outward‐oriented (or liberalised) trade policy regimes. The creation of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) in 1947 and the World Trade Organisation (WTO) in 1995 have been important driving forces for free trade. Since then, the major quantitative barriers to trade, i.e. tariffs and non‐tariff barriers (quotas, licences and technical specifications, among other restrictions), have substantially been reduced or dismantled. Also, the progress towards more liberalised trade regimes, mainly in developing countries, has been manifested in the trade and development literature. Major studies suggest that the performance of more outward‐oriented economies is superior to that of those countries pursuing more inward‐looking trade practices (Greenaway and Nam, 1988; Dollar, 1992; Sachs and Warner, 1995; and Rodríguez and Rodrik, 2000). Recent developments in the international trade literature focus on the potential dynamic effects of trade liberalisation, i.e. simplification of tariff structures and elimination of non‐tariff barriers, in reducing the incentives to rent seeking and in accelerating the flow of technical knowledge from the world market. Moreover, there have been important advances regarding the study of trade liberalisation and its impact on exports, imports and the balance of payments, largely neglected in the literature, often driven by supply‐side considerations.     

亚洲发展中成员国服务贸易竞争力及影响因素分析

亚洲发展中成员国在发展中国家中有着举足轻重的地位,而其相对较强的服务贸易竞争力为亚洲进一步快速发展提供了契机。在理论分析影响服务贸易竞争力因素的基础上采取面板数据模型进行了实证分析,表明发展中成员国的服务贸易竞争力与经济增长、服务业水平、服务业基础设施水平、人力资本水平、政府财政支出规模正相关,与货物贸易水平和外商直接投资水平负相关,并据此提出了应对措施。     

从2004年中英贸易看两国贸易发展趋势

根据英国国家统计局的统计,2004年中英双边贸易仍然存在贸易逆差,并且还有进一步扩大的趋势,如何改变这一状况,使中英双边贸易朝着更加平衡健康的方向发展,这对中英双方经济的长期发展都是有利的.中英两国经济互补性强,双边经贸合作发展迅速,贸易规模不断扩大;中英双边贸易的合作有着巨大的潜力和广阔的前景.     

The Impact of Bilateral Free Trade Agreements on Bilateral Foreign Direct Investment among Developed Countries

Previous studies find that a trade treaty positively impacts foreign direct investment (FDI). But does a trade treaty always have positive effects on FDI? What is the effect of bilateral free trade agreement (FTA) on bilateral FDI among developed countries? Based on the Knowledge‐Capital model, I hypothesize that bilateral FTA has negative effects on bilateral FDI in developed–developed country pairs, but positive effects in developed–developing country pairs. To test this hypothesis empirically, I conduct the within estimator, the Difference‐in‐Difference estimator and the Arellano–Bond estimator with panel data of bilateral FTA and outward FDI in 30 OECD countries and 32 non‐OECD countries between 1982 and 2005. The result supports the hypothesis. The existence of bilateral FTA decreases bilateral FDI in the OECD–OECD country pairs but increases bilateral outward FDI in the OECD–non‐OECD country pairs. The finding of negative effects of bilateral FTA on FDI is robust to different country classifications by gross national income (GNI) per capita and secondary school enrolment. Hence, the results are consistent with what Carr et al. (2001) predicts about the effects of trade cost on FDI in developed–developed country pairs and in developed–developing country pairs.     

Possible Dynamic Effects of AFTA for the New Member Countries

We discuss the possible dynamic benefits of economic integration for the new members of ASEAN. Direct evidence on regional integration and growth is weak, but three indirect channels are possible. Openness increases access to foreign knowledge, which could help productivity growth. Trade liberalisation is likely to stimulate investment and might promote the integration of the regional production network. Binding liberalisation under AFTA would help ‘lock‐in’ and accelerate liberal economic reforms. These gains are not automatic, however. Discriminatory liberalisation will switch imports from sources with high stocks of knowledge towards ASEAN countries, which have lower stocks, and so may lower productivity growth. We term this ‘dynamic’ trade diversion. In addition, local absorptive capabilities must be developed to benefit fully from technology transfer. Finally, we recommend extending AFTA commitments on an MFN basis in order to avoid static and dynamic trade diversions.     

FDI,Trade, and Growth Dynamics: New Evidence from the Post-Reform India

This article has two aims: first, review the related literature on the relationship among Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), Trade, and Economic Growth, and second, empirically examine the linkage between these variables. Our review of the literature indicates that despite a large volume of literature on the relationship among these variables, the direction of causality among them is far from over. Therefore, after observing a gap in the empirical literature, especially for developing economies, we investigate the linkage by using a Vector Autoregression (VAR) model applying the Ganger non-causality test of Toda and Yamamoto (1995) for the period 1991Q3 to 2006Q3. The evidence shows that there is bidirectional causality (two-way feedback) between FDI and economic growth. At the same time, there is also a unidirectional causality exists between exports and FDI, which runs from the former to the latter. Results of the test of causality between FDI and imports indicate the presence of a two-way feedback relationship between the variables.     

Singapore and the New Regionalism: Bilateral Trade Linkages with Japan and the US

Free Trade Areas (FTAs) have recently become an integral part of Singapore trade policy. This paper discusses the reasons behind Singapore's recent embracement of ‘new regionalism’ with particular reference to the proposals to form FTAs with Japan and the US. The paper goes on to examine various aspects of Singapore's trade linkages with the two economic superpowers in some detail. Popular discussion of FTAs gives one the appearance that such a trade policy is entirely benign. The paper sounds a cautionary note, highlighting some reasons to be concerned with Singapore's recent embracement of the ‘new regionalism’.     

中国与OECD国家服务贸易成本动态演变的研究

文章借助Novy(2006)改进的引力模型测度2000～2008年中国与OECD国家的双边服务贸易成本。从测算的结果来看,中国与OECD国家的双边服务贸易成本在总体上经历了平缓下降的过程。绝大部分OECD国家与中国的双边服务贸易成本呈现了不同程度的下降趋势,与此同时部分国家的服务贸易成本却基本保持不变甚至略有上升。文章利用随机效应模型,从实证研究的角度对服务贸易成本进行分解,进而探讨了影响双边服务贸易成本的各种影响因素,最后揭示了研究的政策性涵义。     

Estimating Trade Misinvoicing from Bilateral Trade Statistics: The Devil is in the Details

Trade misinvoicing, an important channel of illicit financial flows, is frequently estimated by the partner-country trade data comparison method. However, this method relies on a critical but incorrect assumption that the trade statistics in partner countries exhibit no misinvoicing. This study proves that the assumption of no misinvoicing in partner countries cannot be supported, raising serious doubts about the reliability of the method and a possibility that inappropriate policy decisions may be made based on the erroneous estimates of trade misinvoicing. We introduce an alternative method to estimate trade misinvoicing which does not rely on the trade statistics of partner countries.     

CAFTA对中国和东盟六国双边贸易的影响研究

CAFTA的建立是我国构建FTA战略的重要一环,它的实施对我国与东盟各国的经贸合作产生了重要影响.本文基于1993-2012年中国大陆与其116个贸易伙伴国20年间的贸易数据,运用双重倍差分析法,对CAFTA的贸易效应进行了系统性研究.结果显示:CAFTA对我国与东盟六国间的双边商品贸易产生了显著的促进效应;CAFTA的实施使得中国对东盟6个国家的年平均出口量增加了18％～42％,同时令中国从东盟六国的进口年平均增加31％～62％.这一研究结论既证实了实施CAFTA带来的良好经济效应,又为深化CAFTA合作、打造CAFTA“升级版”提供了现实支撑.     

双边服务贸易成本测度及服务贸易增长分解——来自中国与21个OECD国家的面板数据分析

借鉴贸易成本的测算方法,运用最新数据库对中国与OECD国家2000～2016年双边服务贸易成本进行测度,结果显示:中国服务贸易成本基本呈下降趋势,尤其是2007年之前下降趋势较明显,得益于《中国服务贸易具体承诺减让表》中市场准入承诺多以6年为限;2007年之后由于减让承诺边际效应的递减和金融危机导致了服务贸易成本小幅上升。对各贸易伙伴国的分组研究发现:距离越远、收入越低的国家与中国的服务贸易成本越高,替代弹性的差异对双边服务贸易成本的变化趋势没有影响。根据模型进行分解的结果表明,产出因素和贸易成本因素是中国与OECD国家双边服务贸易的主要推助力。为降低服务贸易成本,中国应加大对新兴服务业的投资力度,构建跨境服务产业链。     

Military Expenditures and Profit Rates: Evidence from OECD Countries

This article provides evidence of the effect of military expenditures on the rate of profits for 24 OECD countries for the period of 1963–2008 by employing a panel autoregressive distributed lag model within a Marxist framework for the first time. Findings show that while for the whole period there is positive linkage between military expenditures and profit rates, in the post‐1980 era the impact of military expenditures is negative. Findings suggest weak evidence that there is positive linkage between military expenditures and profit rates for arms‐exporting countries and negative linkage for non‐arms‐exporting countries.     

源于比较优势的贸易所得:来自中国的证据

本文根据新古典贸易模型中的贸易所得的理论定义,对测算源于比较优势的贸易所得的基本方法及其理论基础进行了回顾和分析,在此基础上利用进出口额的现值与贸易所得的估算值之间的格兰杰逻辑关系,对中国源于比较优势的贸易所得进行了测算。本文的测算结果表明,中国源于比较优势的贸易所得的最大估算值约为GDP的5%。从比较的角度考察,这一结论的政策含义是,主要依赖劳动力资源或不可再生自然资源比较优势的贸易模式已不具备可持续发展性,建立基于动态比较优势的对外贸易战略应成为包括中国在内的发展中国家的贸易政策选择。     

Trade liberalization and informality nexus: Evidence from Pakistan

This study investigates the impact of trade openness on informal sector employment during the drastic 1988s trade reforms of Pakistan. It is generally perceived that increased external competition in less developed countries results in as an expansion in informal sector, which has less compliance with labor market regulations. Using micro-level data of Pakistan, we study the adjustments in the employment of informal sector due to trade openness. We find that informality and trade openness are associated. In Pakistan, trade reforms have given rise to employment in the informal sector. Our findings are robust to different trade-related measures. A substantial flexibility in labor market is required to benefit from the gains of liberalization.     

External Public Debt,Trade Linkages and Contagion During the Eurozone Crisis

Against the backdrop of the contagion literature, the paper analyses the impact of financial and trade linkages on sovereign bond spreads in the Eurozone crisis. Using quarterly data for a sample of EMU countries during the period 2000–13, we estimate fixed‐effect panel models with Driscoll and Kraay standard errors that are robust to general forms of spatial and temporal dependence. Our main results can be summarised as follows: first, we suggest that the ‘sudden stop’ of capital inflow towards the peripheral sovereign debt triggered a re‐segmentation of financial markets and economic systems along national borders, with negative implications for risk‐sharing and the efficient allocation of capital. The ‘home bias’ effect – that is the increase in the share of sovereign debt held by domestic banks – worsened the country‐specific risk because the twin crisis (sovereign and banking) began to be conceived as more closely intertwined within countries than before. Second, the structure of international trade helps to account for the geographic scope of contagion, even after controlling for macroeconomic and fiscal vulnerabilities. Finally, the ‘substitution effect’ of public debt securities of stand‐alone emerging countries has affected more the sovereign spreads in the core than in the periphery.     

Trade Liberalization and the Wage Skill Premium: Evidence from Indonesia

In this paper, we analyze the effect of reducing import tariffs on intermediate inputs and final goods on the wage skill premium within firms in Indonesia – a country with a high share of unskilled workers. We present a new finding that reducing input tariffs reduces the wage skill premium within firms that import their intermediate inputs. However, we do not find significant effects from reducing tariffs on final goods on the wage skill premium within firms.