Currency risk hedging: Futures vs. forward

The objective of this paper is to address the issue of choosing between currency forward and currency futures contracts when hedging against currency risk within a stochastic interest rates environment. We compare between the hedging effectiveness of the two derivative assets both within a narrow sense (i.e., volatility minimization) and within a wide sense (i.e., risk-return trade-off). When judging hedging effectiveness in the narrow sense, forward and futures contracts give identical results even if they do not have identical prices. When judging hedging effectiveness in the wide sense, the choice between the two contracts is determined by the correlation between the domestic and the foreign term structures dynamics.     

中国传动:债券召回意外

为扩大风电齿轮设备产能,抓住市场机遇,中国传动选择了发行可转换债券,试图用较低的债券成本来筹措资金; 为了防止可转换债券将来可能带来的股权稀释,中国传动拟用回购股票的办法来解决这个问题; 为了锁定日后的回购成本,中国传动将发行债券所筹资金的一半用作订立股份掉期协议。这个看似完美的风险控制链条,却因一场肆虐全球的金融风暴而断掉。     

GARCH vs. stochastic volatility: Option pricing and risk management

In this paper we compare the out-of-sample performance of two common extensions of the Black–Scholes option pricing model, namely GARCH and stochastic volatility (SV). We calibrate the three models to intraday FTSE 100 option prices and apply two sets of performance criteria, namely out-of-sample valuation errors and Value-at-Risk (VaR) oriented measures. When we analyze the fit to observed prices, GARCH clearly dominates both SV and the benchmark Black–Scholes model. However, the predictions of the market risk from hypothetical derivative positions show sizable errors. The fit to the realized profits and losses is poor and there are no notable differences between the models. Overall, we therefore observe that the more complex option pricing models can improve on the Black–Scholes methodology only for the purpose of pricing, but not for the VaR forecasts.     

The hysteresis of currency substitution: Currency risk vs. network externalities

It is widely documented that currency substitution (using foreign money in transactions) increases in periods of high inflation but does not decline once inflation is reduced. The paper uses survey data from Bulgaria, which experienced this phenomenon, to investigate the origins of this ratchet effect. We find that expected devaluation of the domestic currency, while relatively high, does not play a major role in sustaining the dollarization of transactions. Conversely, preferences for the use of foreign money are strongly influenced by people's perception that foreign money is already widely used in the economy.     

Islamic vs. conventional banking: Business model,efficiency and stability

How different are Islamic banks from conventional banks? Does the recent crisis justify a closer look at the Sharia-compliant business model for banking? When comparing conventional and Islamic banks, controlling for time-variant country-fixed effects, we find few significant differences in business orientation. There is evidence however, that Islamic banks are less cost-effective, but have a higher intermediation ratio, higher asset quality and are better capitalized. We also find large cross-country variation in the differences between conventional and Islamic banks as well as across Islamic banks of different sizes. Furthermore, we find that Islamic banks are better capitalized, have higher asset quality and are less likely to disintermediate during crises. The better stock performance of listed Islamic banks during the recent crisis is also due to their higher capitalization and better asset quality.     

Stock price crash risk and internal control weakness: presence vs. disclosure effect

This study examines the stock price crash risk for a sample of firms that disclosed internal control weaknesses (ICW) under Section 404 of the Sarbanes‐Oxley Act (SOX). We find that in the year prior to the initial disclosures, ICW firms are more crash‐prone than firms with effective internal controls. This positive relation is more pronounced when weakness problems are associated with a firm's financial reporting process. More importantly, we find that stock price crash risk reduces significantly after the disclosures of ICWs, despite the disclosure itself signalling bad news. The above results hold after controlling for various firm‐specific determinants of crash risk and ICWs. Using an ICW disclosure as a natural experiment, our study attempts to isolate the presence effect of undisclosed ICWs from the initial disclosure effect of internal control weakness on stock price crash risk. In so doing, we provide more direct evidence on the causal relation between the quality of financial reporting and stock price crash risk.     

Financial integration and the price of world covariance risk: Large- vs. small-cap stocks

We investigate whether recent country-level evidence of global pricing is particular to large-cap stocks. Specifically, we examine cross-country return correlations and conduct asset pricing tests on three size-based stock portfolios for nine developed countries over the period from 1980 to 2004. We find that large-cap stocks realize significant comovements across countries, whereas small-cap stocks realize smaller average correlations (relative to both large-cap stocks and small-cap stocks across countries). More important, asset pricing tests suggest that while large-cap stocks are priced globally, global pricing is rejected for most small-cap stocks. Finally, the evidence indicates that financial integration deepened in recent years primarily for large-cap stocks. Overall, the results suggest that the global pricing pertains chiefly to large-cap stocks.     

Private Equity vs. PLC Boards in the U.K.: A Comparison of Practices and Effectiveness

The consistently higher returns generated by the most successful private equity firms have been attributed in part to their willingness to take on high levels of debt and their ability to exit from their investments at attractive multiples. But recent research suggests that the largest contributor to the superior performance of the best PE firms has been their ability to improve the operating performance of the companies they buy. And as the authors of this article argue, a key source of such improvements are fundamental differences in the way boards function in the public and private realm.
Using in-depth interviews with 20 executives who have served on both PE and plc boards of relatively large U.K. companies, the authors provide a number of suggestive insights into such differences:
Perhaps the most visible of these differences is the "single-minded" focus of PE boards on "value creation," as contrasted with the focus of plc boards on issues of "governance" and "compliance."
Whereas PE boards view their role as "leading" the strategy of the firm and overseeing its execution by top management, plc boards are described as "monitoring" or "accompanying" strategies that are proposed and executed by management.
Whereas PE boards report near-complete alignment of objectives between executive and non-executive directors, plc boards are described as having multiple commitments to and priorities that are divided among multiple stakeholders.
Finally, whereas PE board members undergo an intensive "due diligence" process when joining boards, have frequent ongoing contacts with management, and focus heavily on the cash-generating capacity of the business, initiations of plc board members are much more formal and ceremonial, their dealings with operating management are few and limited, and the information provided them has an "accounting" orientation and covers a broad range of subjects and corporate "responsibilities."     

Controlling characteristics of group insureds: risk rating

Employers seek to manage risk in their group health and life insurance plans through wellness programs and certain hiring practices. In both cases, the Americans with Disabilities Act may ultimately affect the use of these forms of risk rating on the grounds that they are discriminatory.     

Empirical Evaluation of Asset–Pricing Models: A Comparison of the SDF and Beta Methods

The stochastic discount factor (SDF) method provides a unified general framework for econometric analysis of asset–pricing models. There have been concerns that, compared to the classical beta method, the generality of the SDF method comes at the cost of efficiency in parameter estimation and power in specification tests. We establish the correct framework for comparing the two methods and show that the SDF method is as efficient as the beta method for estimating risk premiums. Also, the specification test based on the SDF method is as powerful as the one based on the beta method.     

Safety vs. reputation: risk controversies in emerging policy networks regarding school safety in the Netherlands

This article deals with risk controversies in emerging policy networks regarding school safety in the Netherlands. It offers a grounded account of the interpretations of school risks and safety measures by the various stakeholders of the policy network, in particular, schools, local government and the police. Theoretically, policy networks are conceived as mediating between the structural conditions of the ‘risk-society’ and the ‘culture of fear’ on the one hand and the institution of safety standards on the organizational level of schools on the other hand. It is argued that in the low-risk context of schools, it is particularly important to take into account the soft, cultural side of safety next to the hard, material side of safety. This distinction also accounts for the ambiguities and controversies over school risks. A further conclusion is that in this network a lack of local leadership seems to hinder the development of firm safety measures. Overall, this article highlights the paradox between a concern for safety and a concern for a school’s reputation.     

Payment For Risk: Constant Beta Vs. Dual-Beta Models

Fama and French's (1992) assertion that investors receive premium payments for risk associated with the book value to market price (BE/ME) and size and not for holding beta risk has sparked a lively debate concerning risk factors that are priced in the market. Howton and Peterson (1998) use a dual-beta model to test the Fama and French conclusions. They conclude that the significant relationship between beta and returns depends on the use of the dual-beta model. This work, however, ignores the results reported by Pettengill, Sundaram, and Mathur (PSM, 1995). PSM find a significant relation between a constant risk beta and returns when data are segmented between up and down markets, but do not consider the impact of size and BE/ME. In this paper we show that the PSM (1995) market segmentation procedure alone provides a sufficient condition to identify a significant relation between beta and returns in the presence of size and BE/ME. Dual market betas may be relevant in explaining risk and return. However, the market segmentation procedure of PSM (1995) is the critical condition for finding a significant relationship between returns and betas.     

Bond durations: Corporates vs. Treasuries

We compare the durations (the percentage price sensitivity with respect to the default-free short rate) of corporate and Treasury bonds in the reduced-form, intensity-based credit risk modeling framework. In a frequently used intensity-based model for corporate bond valuation we provide an example showing that, given the parameter estimates found in empirical studies, the duration of a corporate coupon bond may very well be larger than the duration of a similar Treasury bond. This finding contrasts with conclusions of previous studies. In a general, intensity-based recovery of market value framework we provide a simple sufficient condition for when the duration of a corporate bond will be smaller than that of a similar Treasury bond. We also provide an upper bound on the duration of the corporate coupon bond.     

Crowdfunding models: Keep-It-All vs. All-Or-Nothing

Reward-based crowdfunding campaigns are commonly offered in one of two models via fundraising goals set by an entrepreneur: “Keep-It-All” (KIA), where the entrepreneur keeps the entire amount raised regardless of achieving the goal, and “All-Or-Nothing” (AON), where the entrepreneur keeps nothing unless the goal is achieved. We hypothesize that AON forces the entrepreneur to bear greater risk and encourages crowdfunders to pledge more capital enabling entrepreneurs to set larger goals. We further hypothesize that AON is a costly signal of commitment for entrepreneurs yielding a separate equilibrium with higher quality and more innovative projects with greater success rates. Empirical tests support both hypotheses.     

Calibration risk: Illustrating the impact of calibration risk under the Heston model

It is already well documented that model risk is an important issue regarding the pricing of exotics (see Schoutens et al., in A perfect calibration! Now what?, Wilmott Magazine, March 2004: pp 66–78, 2004). Arguments have been made to put this into the perspective of bid-ask pricing using the theory of conic finance and pricing to acceptability (Cherny and Madan Review of Financial Studies, 22: 2571–2606, 2009). In this paper we show also the presence and importance of calibration risk. More particularly, we point out that a variety of plausible calibration methods lead again to serious price differences for exotics and different distributions of the P&L of the delta-hedging strategy. This is illustrated under the popular Heston stochastic volatility model, which is used among practitioners to price all kinds of exotic and structured products. This paper shows that it is prudent to take some additional safety margin into account for the pricing of these structured notes.     

Credit risk,managerial behaviour and macroeconomic equilibrium within dual banking systems: Interest-free vs. interest-based banking industries

In this paper, an attempt has been made to explore the determinants of credit risk in the banking system with a particular interest toward the Islamic banking industry. We analyze the link between credit risk and a set of bank-specific and macroeconomic along with institutional variables using two complementary approaches. First, we investigate the factors of credit risk using one-step generalized method of moments (GMM) system estimator. Then, we explore the feedback between credit risk and its determinants in a panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) model. We have used a sample of Middle Eastern, North African (MENA) and Asian countries to apply our model. The major purpose of this paper is to find factors that could explain credit risk within the interest-free banking system relative to the interest-based one.     

Sigma Convergence versus Beta Convergence: Evidence from U.S. County-Level Data

In this paper, we outline (i) why σ-convergence may not accompany β-convergence, (ii) discuss evidence of β-convergence in the United States, and (iii) use U.S. county-level data containing over 3,000 cross-sectional observations to demonstrate that σ-convergence cannot be detected at the county level across the United States, or within the large majority of the individual U.S. states considered separately. Indeed, in many cases statistically significant σ- divergence is found.     

People vs. poverty: Powering through partnership

Poverty continues to outwit the means to eradicate it. Despite post-World War focus on fighting poverty across the globe, poverty with its manifestations has continued to chart a distinct course. The adoption of the UN Millennium Development Goals only underscores the reality that the war on poverty has been far from won. As forces of globalization blur national boundaries, the need for fighting poverty has become serious than ever before. Innovative financing mechanisms engaging diverse stakeholders for developing poverty reduction strategies have been engineered as possible neo-institutional structures to counter the world's most daunting problems.