On the Path to Trade Liberalisation: Political Regimes in Trade Negotiations

The number of free trade agreements (FTA) has increased substantially since 1990 despite efforts to promote multilateral trade liberalisation. While there is evidence on the determinants of FTA formation, still little is known on the processing of trade agreements, particularly regarding the pre‐implementation duration. This paper fills the research gap by using event data on the negotiation, the signing and the implementation of trade agreements. Duration analysis is employed to examine the connection between regime types and the lengths of the negotiation and the ratification stages. The results support the claim that higher levels of democratisation are associated with shorter negotiations, while political constraints lead to delays. Moreover, the depth of an agreement matters: a higher number of WTO‐X and WTO+ provisions do not only prolong the negotiation stage, but also the subsequent ratification. Against the background of potential anticipation effects of trade agreements, these results are of interest for exporting firms that assess the timing of implementation.     

Trade Costs and Changes in Canada's Trade Pattern

This paper measures the size and composition of non‐tariff trade costs such as transport, wholesale, and network costs incurred in Canada's merchandise trade using Statistics Canada's latest ‘trade margins’ statistics. It examines how changes in these trade costs have influenced Canada's merchandise trade pattern and the course of economic integration. Our results show that as tariffs have been substantially reduced and largely abolished, costs associated with transport and distribution services now appear much larger than remaining customs duties; therefore, liberalisation in services might be the next key step in promoting greater merchandise trade. Further, reducing transport and other trade‐related costs has helped ‘reverse’ the ‘home market effect’, expanding Canada's domestic demand and production for exports of differentiated products.     

经济危机下全球贸易政策的转变及我国的应对策略

经济危机的爆发严重影响了全球投资与消费的增长,造成世界经济增长减速.这场危机不仅对全球金融市场、金融体系造成严重冲击,更深层次和长期的影响则是它对全球实体经济的冲击,尤其是全球贸易的变化值得关注.各国在经济下滑的趋势下,纷纷采取对外贸易收紧策略,加强贸易保护.我国应采取挖掘内需、加快产业升级、促进出口市场多元化等措施,平稳渡过危机.     

中美农产品贸易格局变化及其产业内贸易增长的实证分析

自中国加入世界贸易组织以来,中美双边农产品贸易呈现稳步增长态势,但两国各自的增长幅度和增长成因有所差异。在农产品资源禀赋分类的基础上,对中美农产品贸易格局进行分析,并利用边际产业内贸易指数,对中美双边农产品贸易增长成因进行了实证分析。结果显示,中美双边农产品贸易符合各自的要素禀赋特征;2001年～2011年,双边农产品贸易增长中多数年份主要是由产业间贸易引致,而2006年～2009三个年度由产业内贸易引致的增长又以水平产业内贸易为主,中美农产品贸易的持续增长需要提升双边农产品的产业内贸易水平。     

我国对东盟的出口贸易结构及其变迁——基于产品技术附加值分布的贸易结构分析法和变系数面板数据模型的动态分析

本文首先基于关志雄(2002)和Lall等(2006)提出的基于产品技术附加值分布的贸易结构分析法,在SITC三位数水平下考察了2001—2005年我国对东盟各国出口贸易结构及其变迁,研究结果显示:我国对东盟十国的出口贸易结构有恶化的趋势。因而,为分析影响这一结构变迁的主要因素,本文采用引力模型对可能影响这一贸易结构变迁的各种因素进行了显著性分析,结论显示:总体而言,东盟各国的经济规模对我国对其出口贸易结构变迁具有显著影响,在此基础上,基于变系数面板数据模型深入分析了东盟各国经济规模对我国对东盟各国出口贸易结构变迁的综合影响。最后,针对我国的对外经贸和宏观经济发展现状,提出了优化我国对东盟出口贸易结构的相应对策建议。     

中美贸易战背景下福州跨境电商进口贸易研究

通过中美贸易战背景下福州跨境电商进口特征分析,构建福州跨境电商进口贸易引力模型,结果发现中美贸易战对福州跨境电商进口的抑制作用有限,其中人民币汇率每上升1个百分点,福州跨境电商进口额下降1.29个百分点;福州实际利用外商投资额与福州跨境电商进口额正相关。福州应加快推进跨境电商综试区建设,形成跨境电商产业集聚;升级跨境电商物流模式,提升跨境电商物流效率;提高监督服务水平,维护跨境电商市场稳定;培养跨境电商专业人才,增强跨境电商服务创新能力。     

黑龙江对俄经贸六十年之变迁

对新中国成立后黑龙江省对俄经贸活动的历史进行回顾与梳理,对其发展阶段进行比较合理的划分,并阐述了各个阶段经贸发展的主要内容,展现出新中国成立60年来黑龙江省对俄经贸领域发生的翻天覆地的变化,同时使人们对这一领域的发展历史有一个整体的了解,并从中得出有益的思考。     

Technological Regimes and Sources of Entrepreneurship

This paper concerns the technological determinants of entrepreneurial behaviour. By applying a typology of technological regimes, which describes the nature of the technological environment in which firms operate, this paper examines the sources and obstacles to entrepreneurial entry related to the process of technical change. Two major points are suggested. First, innovation in technologies of high or increasing opportunities is not always associated with entrepreneurial behaviour, but can enhance the competitive advantage of existing firms. Second, opportunities for entrepreneurship are shaped by the nature of knowledge underlying different technologies. These points are illustrated using U.S. patent statistics classified by technical field and sector of firm's principal product activity. Different combinations of sources of technological entry barriers and technological opportunity are identified in science-based technologies, chemical technologies, core technologies in complex systems, product-engineering technologies and process-engineering technologies. This paper argues that such a characterisation of the dynamics of knowledge accumulation is important for interpreting the variety of dynamics of industrial competition.     

Real Exchange Rate Changes and the Trade Balance: The Evidence from Pakistan

This study uses quarterly data from July 1980 to June 2006 to explore the relationship between changes in real exchange rate and the trade balance of Pakistan. Applying the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration, we examine the existence of a possible long-run relationship. We find the following: (1) a long-run relationship between the series exists, and (2) the coefficient of elasticity is negative and statistically significant, which does not support for the J-relation.

Given this, the policymakers should take a conservative approach in using currency devaluation to cure the fundamental disequilibrium in the balance of payments. It is likely that such policy may not produce the desired outcome—i.e., the trade balance may not improve.     

疫情背景下的全球变局和亚洲经贸合作

国际金融危机以来,世界经济格局东升西降趋势显著。亚洲经济在全球经济中的地位不断上升,特别是新冠肺炎疫情之下,东亚经济率先复苏,已成为世界经济重心。亚洲始终是中国经略周边外交的重点地区,如何经略好这一地区,积极营造繁荣稳定的周边环境和发展机遇期,对中国塑造发展全球伙伴关系和深化同周边国家的关系具有重要现实意义,有助于发挥中国作为大国领导力和提升国际影响力。特别是在中美贸易摩擦加剧、新冠肺炎疫情全球大流行背景下,探讨分析亚洲经济发展的战略和政策动向,探索亚洲经贸合作的新思路新路径,对赢得中美战略博弈主动、推动高质量发展具有特殊意义,也有利于推动区域各国加强互信互利合作和维护亚洲稳定繁荣。自贸区战略已成为大国竞争的战略制高点之一,提高自由贸易区标准和质量是大势所趋。分析各区域经贸协定、亚洲产业链转移趋势及对中国的机遇和挑战,有助于未雨绸缪,早有预案,争取主动。在分析这些重大问题的基础上提出亚洲经贸合作发展中亟需解决的重大问题与合作的新思路,给出中国方案和建议。     

Radical Political Regimes in the Americas and MNC Responses

Abstract

This paper introduces a dynamic conceptual model to describe US multinational corporations' responses to radical political regime changes in contemporary Latin America. The model describes four stages in the MNC response process: (1) the nature of the radical revolution in the host nation; (2) the new economic paradigm created by the revolutionary government; (3) the adjustments and readjustments made by both parties (the state and MNC) within the newly defined rules; and (4) the end result or outcome of the re-positioning process. Moderating the impact of the creation of the new economic paradigm are the host nation's national history, the host nation's domestic actors, US hegemonic power, international actors and economic development models. Within this mix, both state and MNC power influence what each other wants and can get from the other. This leads to a “negotiated” outcome from whence the response from the MNC is made. The revolutionary regimes in Chile (1970-1973) and Nicaragua (1979-1990) are examined within the context of the proposed conceptual model.     

贸易收支与汇率变动相关性分析

从弹性论、购买力平价理论和不完全汇率传递理论角度出发进行分析,贸易收支与汇率之间关系密切,相互作用明显。在国际贸易的实际运行中,贸易收支和汇率变动又各自受诸多因素的影响和制约。得出结论:在不同时期贸易收支对汇率的影响不同。汇率波动对贸易收支的影响则需要满足进口商品需求弹性与出口商品需求弹性之和大于1,此时汇率变动才会对贸易收支起到明显的调节作用,否则无效。在复杂的国际环境下,贸易收支与汇率之间的敏感度并不强。     

韩国对中国贸易竞争力变化研究

目前,中国已经成为韩国第一大贸易伙伴、第一大出口市场、第一大海外投资对象国和第一大顺差来源国,韩国则是中国第六大贸易伙伴、第六大出口市场和第四大进口来源国。随着中国经济的迅速崛起,两国贸易结构和竞争力以及国际市场地位发生着相应的变化,并带来诸多不可回避的问题。因此,深入研究中韩两国之间贸易结构的变化及竞争力状况,对两国贸易关系予以展望具有重要的现实意义。     

外贸企业应对汇率变动风险的策略研究

我国目前实行以市场供求为基础,参考一篮子货币进行调节,有管理的浮动汇率制度,国内从事与美元相关业务的外贸企业,将真正暴露在汇率变动风险之下。如何通过规避汇率变动风险来保障企业的正常经营成果,已成为一个十分重要的课题。     

我国国际贸易结构变化对能源消费影响的敏感性分析

本文基于投入产出分析法中影响力系数的研究思想,提出了"能源消费影响力系数"的概念,运用1992年、1997年和2002年投入产出表中的数据,计算了各进出口部门净出口每增加一单位,通过投入产出的连锁反应最终导致我国能源消费总量的增加数量,得出了对我国能源消费具有重要影响的关键性的进出口部门,以及这些部门单位进出口额的变化对我国能源消费的影响程度。其中,在对能源强度的计算中,借鉴了投入产出混合价值模型(Input-output Model in Hybrid Units)的计算方法。