On the conservation of distance in international trade

Using disaggregated bilateral trade data, we find that the elasticity of trade to distance increased (in absolute value) by about 10% since 1985. To explore the reasons for this shift, we decompose the change in the distance elasticity of trade into the part due to a shift in the composition of trade among industries and the part due to a change in the distance sensitivity within industries. We find that adjustment in the composition of trade had little effect, but for 40% of industries distance became more important, with nearly all of the remaining industries showing no significant change. We explore alternative hypotheses as to why the elasticity of trade to distance increased in some industries. We find that homogeneous goods, bulky goods, and high tariff goods became significantly more distance sensitive. In contrast, the evidence implies that changes in tariffs and freight costs have reduced the importance of distance on trade. We conclude that the increase in the importance of distance over time is related to the substitutability of goods and the level of trade costs, but not to changes in tariffs or freight costs.     

Trade barriers and trade flows with product heterogeneity: An application to US motion picture exports

We extend Melitz (2003) to allow for both global and bilateral fixed export costs. If global (bilateral) export costs dominate, the average sales ratio (import sales per product variety/domestic sales per variety), decreases (increases) in variable (fixed) trade barriers, due to adjustment along the intensive (extensive) margin of trade. Using novel data on bilateral US movie exports we find that (i) variation in box-office revenues per movie is much larger than in the number of movies exported, and (ii) the average sales ratio decreases in geographic and linguistic distance. These findings suggest that global fixed export costs dominate.     

Heterogeneous firms,exporter networks and the effect of distance on international trade

Distance effects in gravity equations are high and are not decreasing over time. Given that technical change in transport technology is biased in favor of long distances, this constitutes a challenge for existing theoretical models. In line with recent empirical evidence, this paper introduces a spillover effect from the number of exporters to the fixed costs of exporting into a trade model with heterogeneous firms. Since less firms export to remote markets, the equilibrium fixed costs are increasing in distance. This creates an additional effect of distance on aggregate trade flows: while the intensive margin of trade is unaffected, the extensive margin is magnified. This magnification leads to higher predicted distance effects. In addition, it offers a new perspective on non-decreasing distance effects: a relatively moderate strengthening of the spillover over time is sufficient to generate a constant distance elasticity.     

Time,uncertainty and trade flows

This paper quantifies the impact of international transport time on bilateral trade flows in goods using previously unexploited information drawn from a large data set on international parcel delivery times. In line with previous work, we find that an extra day spent in international transit reduces bilateral trade by just under 1% at the sample median. In addition, and for the first time in the literature, we examine the impact of time-related uncertainty, which requires traders to hold costly inventories or build costly redundancies into supply chains. We find that a one day increase in international transport time uncertainty reduces bilateral trade flows by just over 1%. Splitting the sample into developing and developed countries shows that international transit time matters primarily for south–south trade, whereas uncertainty is relatively more important for north–north trade. Using new data on trade in intermediate versus final goods, we also find some evidence that time and uncertainty both matter more for movements of intermediates of the type that takes place within global value chains.     

Exchange rates and US direct investment into Latin America

Abstract

In this paper, we analyze separately the determinants of maritime transport and road transport costs for Spanish exports to Poland and Turkey (markets for which maritime and road transport are competing modes) and investigate the different effects of these costs on international trade. First, we investigate the extent to which maritime and road transport costs depend on different factors such as unit values, distances, transport conditions, service structures, and service quality. Second, we analyze the relative importance of road and maritime transport costs in comparison with distance measures as determinants of trade flows. The main results of this investigation indicate that real distance is not a good proxy for transportation costs and identify the central variables influencing road and maritime transportation costs: for both modes, transport conditions are strong determinants, whereas efficiency and service quality are more important for maritime transport costs, and geographical distance is more important for road transport. Road and maritime transport costs are central explanatory factors of exports and they seem to deter trade to a greater extent than road or maritime transit time when endogeneity is considered.     

Geographical disadvantage: a Heckscher-Ohlin-von Thünen model of international specialisation

We analyse the trade and production patterns of countries located at varying distances from an economic centre. Exports and imports of final and intermediate goods bear transport costs which increase with distance. We show how production and trade depend on factor endowments and factor intensities, and also on countries’ locations and the transport intensities of different goods. Countries divide into zones with different trade patterns, some export oriented and others import substituting. We study the implications of distance for factor prices and real incomes, the effects of changes in transport costs, and the locational choice of new activities.     

Trade Facilitation and Export Diversification

This paper shows that improved trade facilitation can help promote export diversification in developing countries. We find that 10 per cent reductions in the costs of international transport and domestic exporting costs (documentation, inland transport, port and customs charges) are associated with export diversification gains of 4 and 3 per cent, respectively, in a sample of 118 developing countries. Customs costs play a particularly important role in these results. Lower market entry costs can also promote diversification, but the effect is weaker (1 per cent). We also find evidence that trade facilitation has stronger effects on diversification in poorer countries. Our results are highly robust to estimation using alternative dependent and independent variables, different country samples, and alternative econometric techniques. We link these findings to recent advances in trade theory that emphasise firm heterogeneity, and trade growth at the extensive margin.     

Why Are Agricultural Goods Not Traded More Intensively: High Trade Costs or Low Productivity Variation?

This paper empirically studies the sizes of agricultural trade costs and productivity variation in the agriculture sector. In a general Ricardian trade model, I identify these two factors as possible causes of the observed low trade intensity of agricultural goods. Using data on bilateral trade flows, prices of agricultural goods and sectoral production from a sample of 46 countries, I estimate the variation of agricultural productivity as well as trade costs on agricultural and manufactured goods. I find that trade costs are substantial, with agricultural trade costs roughly twice as large as manufacturing trade costs. Moreover, consistent with the existing literature, I find that distance is the dominant part in the estimated trade costs. Lastly, relative to existing estimates of the heterogeneity of manufacturing productivity, the heterogeneity of agricultural productivity is large. These findings suggest that high trade costs are the main impediments to agricultural trade.     

Export diversification: How much does the choice of the trading partner matter?

This paper studies how a country's export diversification varies across destination markets. It develops an extension of the Romalis (2004) model which yields two testable predictions. According to the first, exports between similarly endowed countries (“South–South” and “North–North”) are more diversified than exports between differently endowed countries (“South–North” and “North–South”). The second implication is that, for given countries' production patterns, low bilateral trade costs lead to greater export diversification. These predictions find empirical support in a panel of 102 trade partners and 4998 HS-6 industries over the period 1995–2007. Results show that similarities between trading partners in physical capital, land and human capital endowments per worker are associated with more diversified bilateral exports. Exports are also more diversified when bilateral trade costs are relatively low.     

双边贸易的本地市场效应——基于东亚地区制造业部门的实证研究

本文基于2000-2006年东亚地区主要经济体间的双边贸易数据,研究并检验了该地区制造业部门双边贸易的本地市场效应。结果发现:东亚地区制造业部门的双边贸易整体上并不存在本地市场效应,只有个别行业表现出了显著的本地市场效应;而由相对要素禀赋条件和人均GDP所决定的传统比较优势因素对该地区制造业贸易模式的决定和影响仍是非常重要;此外,我们还发现劳动密集型产品是东亚地区制造业部门双边贸易的主要产品,必需品又是其中的主导消费部门。     

Can Africa compete with China in manufacturing? The role of relative unit labour costs

This paper examines sub‐Saharan Africa's (SSA ) bilateral trade and cost competitiveness with China. We document an extraordinary imbalance in the structure of bilateral trade in that China overwhelmingly exports manufactured products to SSA and almost exclusively imports primary products in return. Our principal means of assessing the competitiveness of SSA 's manufacturing sector vis‐à‐vis China are measures of relative unit labour costs (RULC ). We find that African RULC s declined over the 2000s as China's wages rose faster than Chinese productivity while the reverse was true for the SSA countries in our sample. Nevertheless, RULC s vis‐à‐vis China remain very high for many SSA countries. High RULC s along with weaknesses in the business climate suggest that most SSA countries are unlikely to be competitive in labour‐intensive manufacturing any time soon.     

Transport costs and trade: Empirical evidence for Latin American imports from the European union

Abstract

This paper aims to investigate the relationship between trade flows and transport costs. In previous studies the cost of transport was considered as an exogenous variable. However, an expanding volume of trade also reduces the unit cost of transport and, therefore, the causal relationship between trade and transport costs may be operating in both directions. A transport-costs equation is estimated using data on transportation costs from the International Transport Data Base (BTI). The relationship between transport costs and trade is then analysed by applying a gravity model for sectoral imports for five Latin American Countries from the European Union. We investigate the endogeneity of the transport cost and trade variables by estimating simultaneously both equations. Our results show that, while higher distance and poor importer's infrastructure notably increase transport costs, a higher volume of trade has the opposite effect. Moreover, trade is significantly deterred by higher transport costs and fostered by cultural similarities.     

Agglomeration spillovers and wage and housing cost gradients across the urban hierarchy

The tyranny of distance in terms of its effect on median earnings and housing costs is examined for rural and urban U.S. counties. First, we develop a series of distance metrics for an area's remoteness from multiple tiers of the urban hierarchy. Second, we consider geographical access of buyers and sellers through market potential measures typical of those used in empirical studies of the New Economic Geography. We estimate penalties of about 5 to 9% for median earnings and 12 to 17% for housing costs for area remoteness from the combined tiers of the urban hierarchy. Differences in market potential also influence factor prices, but these effects generally are smaller than those produced by urban hierarchy distances. Thus, it appears that empirical tests of New Economic Geography models need to consider sources of agglomeration spillovers beyond aggregate market potential.     

Trade law and trade flows

This paper develops and estimates a model to study the effect of improving the quality of commercial trade law on trade flows. We focus on improvements aimed to privately resolve disputes among trading partners: international commercial arbitration and conciliation. The main novelty of the model is to explicit the balance between the contractual quality of importer and exporter (contractual distance) in an environment with informational frictions (contractual noise). Using a structural gravity estimation with high-dimensional fixed effects, the main contribution of the empirical exercise is to confirm previous results and unravel new traits that align with our theoretical results. Arbitration has a moderate and positive effect on exports that increases (decreases) with the contractual quality of the exporter (importer) and the remoteness of markets. The effects of conciliation are similarly positive, but only for similar trading partners with high levels of income. Results also suggest both domestic trade law reform and international treaties have a positive effect on trade, with a stronger effect of the latter.     

Are bilateral and multilateral aid‐for‐trade complementary?

Using the first comprehensive estimates of ad valorem tariff equivalent bilateral trade costs spanning the time period 2002–10, we examine whether the aid‐for‐trade (AFT) inflows reduce bilateral trade costs facing aid recipients. If so, we ask whether the trade costs reduction effects of AFT from bilateral and multilateral sources are complementary. By showing the extent to which the observed trade cost reduction effects of AFT from bilateral (multilateral) sources correlate with the magnitudes of AFT disbursements from multilateral (bilateral) sources, we present plausible explanation for the cross‐country variations in the extent to which AFT promotes trade flows. Our findings have, thus, important policy implications for shaping future discourses on the coordination of disbursements for enhancing the effectiveness of AFT.     

Heterogeneous Firms,Globalisation and the Distance Puzzle

Despite the strong pace of globalisation, the distance effect on trade is persistent or even growing over time (Disdier and Head, 2008). To solve this distance puzzle, we use the recently developed gravity equation estimator from Helpman et al. (2008) (HMR henceforth). Using three different data sets, we find that the distance coefficient increases over time when ordinary least squares (OLS) is used, while the non‐linear estimation of HMR leads to a decline in the distance coefficient over time. The distance puzzle, thus, arises from a growing bias of OLS estimates. The latter is explained by an increase in the importance of the bias from omitting the number of heterogeneous exporting firms relative to the bias from omitting zero trade flows. Furthermore, we show that including zero trade flows cannot solve the distance puzzle when using HMR. The HMR estimates are strongly correlated with the time pattern in freight costs reported by Hummels (2007).     

Assessing the impact of communication costs on international trade

Communication costs are frequently cited as an important determinant of trade costs. We test this relationship by incorporating alternative measures of communication costs in a model of bilateral trade. We find that international variations in communication costs indeed have a significant influence on trade patterns. Furthermore, estimates using disaggregated data reveal that communication costs are more important for trade in differentiated products than for trade in homogenous products.     

Administrative barriers to trade

We build a model of administrative barriers to trade to understand how they affect trade volumes, shipping decisions and welfare. Because administrative costs are incurred with every shipment, exporters have to decide how to break up total trade into individual shipments. Consumers value frequent shipments, because they enable them to consume close to their preferred dates. Hence per-shipment costs create a welfare loss.We derive a gravity equation in our model and show that administrative costs can be expressed as bilateral ad-valorem trade costs. We estimate the ad-valorem equivalent in Spanish shipment-level export data and find it to be large. A 50% reduction in per-shipment costs is equivalent to a 9 percentage point reduction in tariffs. Our model and estimates help explain why policy makers emphasize trade facilitation and why trade within customs unions is larger than trade within free trade areas.     

Bilateral adjustment of bank assets: Boom and bust

This paper provides evidence that bilateral factors were relevant for the adjustment of bank assets before and during the Great Recession. This finding is consistent with the theory that monitoring costs or informational frictions can help explain the adjustment of bank assets at a bilateral country level. Distance is a particularly relevant friction, and has non-uniform effects for advanced and emerging hosts. If the assets are denominated in domestic rather than foreign currency, this can reduce the negative effect of distance on adjustment. Further we find that trade, colonial ties and the history of a position are important for the bilateral adjustment of bank assets.     

Proliferating Regional Trade Arrangements: Why and Whither?

This paper investigates why regional trade arrangements (RTAs) are proliferating extensively and how the effects of multiple RTAs, by interacting with each other, evolve over time. Our empirical analysis, based on an extended gravity model utilising a large panel dataset of 175 countries from 1948 to 1999, shows that RTAs on average increase global trade by raising intra‐bloc trade without damaging extra‐bloc trade. The net trade effects, however, heavily depend on the types of RTA strategic evolution over time, which we categorise as ‘expansionary’ RTAs, ‘duplicate’ RTAs or ‘overlapping’ RTAs. We find that countries excluded from an RTA can benefit more from duplicating a separate RTA than from joining an existing RTA. This result explains why the number of bilateral trade blocs, rather than the membership size of existing RTAs, is currently exploding. We also find that the net trade‐creating effects of RTAs are substantially lower for countries participating in overlapping RTAs. This result suggests that it is less likely that the currently proliferating RTAs will completely merge and lead the world economy to global free trade. Our empirical results are robust to controlling for the characteristics of countries that may influence the impact of RTAs.