Does reducing student support affect scholastic performance? Evidence from a Dutch reform

This paper investigates the impact of student support on performance and time allocation of students in Dutch higher education. In 1996 the maximum duration of grants was reduced by 1 year, and thereby limited to the nominal duration of the study program. This reform could have had substantial financial consequences for students. We evaluate the effects of the reform using a difference-in-differences approach. Our main findings are that after the reform, students early in their study (i) switched less to other programs, (ii) obtained higher grades, while (iii) they did not spend more time studying or working. In addition, for students not older than 20 years when they started their study we find larger effects on all performance variables (switching, percentage of completed courses, graduation in the first year and grade point averages). These findings are consistent with recent evidence on heterogeneous treatment effects for higher ability students.     

The lack of loan aversion among Canadian high school students

Evidence is presented on the factors that influence take‐up for postsecondary education financing (loans or grants) for high school students. Results show several factors influence the students' decisions about taking loans or grants but the most prominent influence was the price of educational subsidy. A total of 1,248 high school students across Canada participated. Prices for the grants and loans overlapped substantially in order to more clearly distinguish the impact of loan aversion on the decision to take up financial assistance to pursue PSE. The study featured paid experimental decisions (ranging from $25 to $700 in cash and from $500 to $4,000 in education financing), a numeracy assessment, a student survey and a parental telephone survey. The targeted sample included at‐risk high school students: low SES levels, First Nations and first generation students. Participants were marginally sensitive to the form of financing (grant or loan), with no evidence of systematic loan aversion being detected.     

Can information and counseling help students from poor rural areas go to high school? Evidence from China

Recent studies have shown that only about two-thirds of the students from poor, rural areas in China finish junior high school and enter high school. One factor that may be behind the low rates of high school attendance is that students may be misinformed about the returns to schooling or lack career planning skills. We therefore conduct a cluster-randomized controlled trial (RCT) using a sample of 131 junior high schools and more than 12,000 students to test the effects of providing information on returns or career planning skills on student dropout, academic achievement and plans to go to high school. Contrary to previous studies, we find that information does not have significant effects on student outcomes. Unlike information, counseling does have an effect. However, the effect is somewhat surprising. Our findings suggest that counseling increases dropouts and seems to lower academic achievement. In our analysis of the causal chain, we conclude that financial constraints and the poor quality of education in junior high schools in poor, rural areas (the venue of the study) may be contributing to the absence of positive impacts on student outcomes from information and counseling. The negative effects of counseling on dropout may also be due to the high and growing wages for unskilled labor (high opportunity costs) in China’s transitioning economy. It is possible that when our counseling curriculum informed the students about the reality of how difficult were the requirements for entering academic high school, it may have induced them to revise their benefit-cost calculations and come to the realization that they are better off dropping out and/or working less hard in school.     

Estimating the Effect of Financial Aid Offers on College Enrollment: A Regression–Discontinuity Approach*

An important problem faced by colleges and universities, that of evaluating the effect of their financial aid offers on student enrollment decisions, is complicated by the likely endogeneity of the aid offer variable in a student enrollment equation. This article shows how discontinuities in an East Coast college's aid assignment rule can be exploited to obtain credible estimates of the aid effect without having to rely on arbitrary exclusion restrictions and functional form assumptions. Semiparametric estimates based on a regression–discontinuity (RD) approach affirm the importance of financial aid as an effective instrument in competing with other colleges for students.     

The effects of the high school curriculum on school dropout

High school dropouts and their lower employment prospects are a major concern for developed countries. This article answers the question whether the high school curriculum has the potential to affect students’ dropout decision. Focusing on the curriculum is also motivated by the manifold curriculum reforms or reform initiatives worldwide. Using a quasi-experimental evaluation design, we identify the effects of a curriculum reform on students’ probability to drop out of high school in the short run, i.e. for the first three cohorts graduating under the new curriculum requirements. The reform increased the curriculum requirements in high school, for instance, by reducing the freedom of choice in course selection. The results show that high school dropout rates increased for males and females alike.     

Improving Public High Schools: Evidence from New York

This study examined why differing public high schools have widely varying levels of student success. Two outcomes, namely the dropout and the college attendance rates, were analyzed using data for suburban schools just outside of New York City. While the dropout and college attendance rates proved most sensitive to community economic differences, they also responded to the way high schools were managed. Schools with smaller classes and less crime employing more experienced and qualified teachers enjoyed better outcomes. Teacher pay, however, was not a significant factor determining student success.      

Does Attending a Catholic School Make a Difference? Evidence From Italy

This paper analyses whether attending a Catholic high school in Italy yields higher benefits in student achievement compared with enrolment at a public school. Because a measure of the success of a given high school might be how its students perform after leaving high school, our attention is focused on university participation and the risk of university dropout. We find that attending a Catholic school increases the likelihood of enrolling at university but has no effect on dropout behaviour. Additionally, our findings show that the source of the effectiveness of Catholic schools in boosting university participation does not lie in better resource availability, peer group influences or positive selection.     

Microsimulation Modelling of Tenure Choice and Grants to Promote Home Ownership

This article develops a microsimulation model of the Australian housing market that has tenure choice as its principal focus. The article sheds light on the role played by relative prices, wealth and borrowing constraints in shaping housing tenure choices. We explore the model's capabilities as an aid to policy making by reporting the findings from an impact analysis of grant programs designed to ease the transition of first home buyers into owner occupation. We find a large demand for home ownership that is not met because of borrowing constraints. The need to meet financial institutions' down payment requirements is particularly important. Government grants made available to first home buyers will ease down payment requirements, but the formal incidence of such a subsidy is found to be inequitable among potential first home buyers, and its impact is largely to bring forward purchase decisions.     

Do fiscal transfers alleviate business tax competition? Evidence from Germany

According to theory, capacity equalization grants cause local governments to internalize the effects of their tax policies on revenues of neighboring jurisdictions and so raise equilibrium tax rates. This paper empirically analyzes the incentive effects of equalizing transfers on business tax policy by exploiting a natural experiment in the state of Lower Saxony which changed its equalization formula as of 1999. We resort to within-state and across-state difference-in-difference estimates to identify the reform effect on municipalities' business tax rates. Confirming the theoretical prediction, the reform had a significant impact on the municipalities' tax policy in the 4 years after the reform with the effect stabilizing in the fourth to fifth years. The finding is robust to various alternative specifications.     

The effect of coffee price shock on school dropout: new evidence from the 2008 global financial crisis

This article examines the effect of coffee price shock on the school dropout status of children in rural Ethiopia. To identify the effect, I exploit the exogenous coffee price shock caused by the 2008 global financial crisis. Using a unique rural data set collected before and shortly after the crisis, I compare the school dropout status of children in coffee-producing and non–coffee-producing villages. The difference-in-difference estimate suggests that the decline in the global price of coffee during the financial crisis increased school dropout rates among children aged 15–18 in coffee-producing villages. The effect is more pronounced among female children in this age group.     

Financial reforms and credit growth in Nigeria: empirical insights from ARDL and ECM techniques

In the last 37 years, Nigeria has undergone several stages of financial reforms with different impacts on the economy. This paper analyses the impact of these financial reforms on credit growth in Nigeria using annual data from 1980 to 2016. The research work hinges on the theoretical underpinning of McKinnon-Shaw hypothesis on the relevance of financial reforms in a lagging economy. Analysing the data with autoregressive distributed lag error correction representation and bounds testing techniques, we find evidence supporting this hypothesis, and specifically that at higher real interest rates there is increased financial intermediation evidenced by credit growth. Other findings are that in the long-run, financial system deposits, inflation rate and per capita GDP are strong asymmetrical predictors of credit growth and real interest rates (the financial reform indicator), while the short-run relationships are indicator-specific. We further show that a long-run cointegration relationship exists between domestic credit and other covariates and likewise between the real interest rate and its regressors.     

Elections, exchange rates and reform in Latin America

In this paper, we study the link between real exchange rate (RER) depreciation and elections in Latin America. Our contribution is threefold. First, we employ a statistical model that takes into account the pervasive conditional heteroskedasticity found in financial data and includes a wide range of macroeconomic variables as regressors. Second, we test whether the wave of central bank reform that swept the region has had any effect on the existence or strength of the electoral cycle in exchange rates. Third, we test an additional hypothesis, namely, that financial liberalization may also be an important variable explaining changes in electoral effects on the real exchange rate. In a panel of 9 Latin American countries with available macroeconomic data and a history of exogenous election dates, we confirm the previous findings that real depreciation intensifies after elections even when modeling the significant conditional heteroskedasticity in these data. We also show, for the first time in the literature, that post-election exchange rates are significantly less predictable. We go on to test whether central bank reform has influenced the way in which elections affect the RER in Latin America. If reform has been effective at reducing political manipulation of the exchange rate, then any relationship we see between elections and the RER before central bank reform should be mitigated in the post-reform era. We find that the relationship disappears after reform and that post-reform real exchange rates are also significantly less volatile. Finally, we show that financial liberalization seems to have a stronger effect on the conditional variance of the RER than does central bank reform, but reform has a stronger impact on the conditional mean.     

The U.S. health care expenditure: evidence from 2001 to 2009

This study utilizes state-level data from 2001 to 2009 to estimate the impact of the 2007 financial crisis upon health care expenditures. Higher death rates are consistently found to have a positive and statistically significant impact on health expenditures. While mental health and COPD are not generally found to impact expenditures, increases in the percentage of the population diagnosed with cholesterol and obesity tend to increase health expenditures. Increases in health expenditures slowed considerably after the financial crisis. Even though recessions (high unemployment rates) are generally found to have a positive impact on health expenditures, the post-financial crisis time period is estimated to have much lower health expenditures than in other time periods. Our results can be used to give insight into the conditions under which the slower rate of increase in health expenditures can be expected to increase. More research will be needed to be able to more completely explore not only the reasons for these changes in health expenditures but also whether they are likely to continue into the future.     

生育率下降背景下高等教育扩张与大学生就业困难——从“98亚洲金融危机”到2008“次贷金融危机”

运用人口社会学视角对两次金融危机背景下的大学生就业问题进行探讨,尝试从宏观就业市场的人口队列效应、教育规模的"非常规"扩张到后危机时代的产业结构调整维度论证金融危机本身这一"突发性"的外部因素对大学生就业的影响程度。只有深化改革、完善市场调节机制,大学生就业难的深层次矛盾才可能因为这次金融危机获得纾解的时间与机会。教育及其他一系列公共事业投入与发展规划需将宏观人口发展战略纳入其中。     

Race-based affirmative action for higher education in Brazil: Impact assessment on performance,time, and delay in completion*

This paper aims to investigate the impact of race-based affirmative action for higher education in Brazil, through the effects of applying under a quota versus the open system for Black, Brown, and Indigenous people, on academic performance, time, and delay in completion. The data used were obtained by the survey of the National Student Performance Examination (Enade) from 2016 to 2018. Through the propensity score matching methodologies, entropy balancing, empirical quantile regression strategy, and Lewbel method, a small statistically significant negative impact on students' performance was observed. Significant effects on time and delay in completion were not found in most of the estimators used. We also observed that older students and students who are male, lack, or Indigenous are more likely to choose to enter via racial quotas, while students who live with their parents or spouse and students who have some source of income are less likely to participate in the policy.     

Financial Student Aid and Enrollment in Higher Education: New Evidence from Germany*

Means‐tested student aid might affect enrollment in higher education. To derive the potential influence of student aid, we use a tax‐benefit microsimulation model. The effect is a non‐linear function of parental income, with variation as a result of bracket creeping and various reforms. Therefore, the effect of student aid on enrollment can be separated from the effects of income and other family characteristics. Using the German Socio‐Economic Panel, we find a small but significant positive effect, similar in size to the effects reported in previous studies for European countries but smaller than in the US.     

Risk Sharing and Institutional Quality: Evidence from OECD and Emerging Economies

In this paper, we investigate the impact of institutional quality on risk sharing across Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and emerging economies (EMEs). It has been found that the quality of institutions and risk sharing are significantly interrelated among OECD members (mostly through credit market channel), but not for the EMEs. Our results are consistent when we control for pre- and post-GFC periods. The reason why the impact of institutional quality on risk sharing is limited among EMEs might be due to the significant monetary injections from advanced economies in the form of remittances and financial aid which might understate other factors that influence risk sharing.     

A re-examination of the savings displacement hypothesis

This paper re-examines the savings displacement hypothesis. It uses a new dataset that disaggregates aid into project aid, financial programme aid, technical assistance grants and programme food aid. When considering the whole sample of 97 countries, results obtained from estimating a savings function using the GMM-System approach to dynamic panel suggest that project aid flows are the only type of aid exerting a negative effect on domestic savings. The results also show that the effects of the different categories of aid on domestic savings vary across regions, thus highlighting the importance of regional disaggregation in cross-country studies. The author would like to thank Jean-Louis Grolleau at the OECD Credit Reporting System for his helpful advice and his encouragements during the construction of the disaggregated aid database used in this paper.     

Revising higher education policy in Greece: filling the Danaids’ Jar

The study examines the possible effects of a recent policy change in Greece on students’ graduation rates. Our study mainly concentrates on the potential impact that the reform may have on the various categories of students, as these are classified by the way they enter the university. Records for students studying at a university of economic and social studies are analyzed by employing a probit model. Our main empirical finding suggests that students from all the other modes of entry, compared to students entering by means of general examinations, face a considerably higher probability of failure.     

关于大学生职业生涯规划的思考

随着中国高等教育模式由精英教育向大众教育转变,大学毕业生就业难成为社会关注的热点和解决的难点。结合中国大学生教育的特点,提出大学生职业生涯规划要以学生为主体,以辅导员和班主任为辅助,在规划实施中注意连续性和多样性的观点。