驳人民币汇率升值论

近几年,日本和美国的一些政府官员和学者相继提出要求人民币汇率升值的主张。这一主张立足于人民币汇率低估的判断,其依据主要涉及经常收支顺差、人民币汇率的市场压力和购买力平价这三方面的因素。本文将分别探讨和反驳人民币升值论的主要论点。     

China—macroeconomic cycles in the 1980S

This paper explores the links between reforms, macroeconomic management and the occurence of macroeconomic instability in China during the last decade, drawing upon previous analytical work and also employing a Granger causality test. It was observed that macroeconomic cycle characteristics were modified by structural changes in the economy. It is further argued that the incompleteness of reforms (which renders macroeconomic management difficult) had the effect of exacerbating the cycles by increasing their amplitude and frequency. Finally, results from the Granger tests suggest that broad money would be a good intermediate target for monetary policy.     

Technology transfer to the U.S.S.R and the shape of the production function

Summary In this paper we argue that previous studies of the impact of imports of Western capital to the Soviet Union have erred by emphasizing the direct contribution of such capital to output. To our view, a more important consequence of such imports is a catalytic effect on the productivity of indigenous capital and labor cooperating with Western machinery. Estimates of production functions for Soviet industry and several subsectors indicate that Western capital imports do improve the productivity of indigenous inputs and make the production process more capital intensive.     

冷静、冷静、再冷静--对当前美国与中美关系的几点观察

十几年前,当国际风云变幻、战略对比失衡时,邓小平综观全局,对形势突变及时做出了精辟的论断,提出要冷静、冷静、再冷静,指出无论国际环境如何变化,中国都要在和平共处五项原则的基础上从容发展同所有国家的友好关系;要保持警惕,谁也不怕,谁也不得罪,朋友要交,心中有数;要韬光养晦,埋头苦干,不扛大旗不当头,过头的话不说,过头的事不做。[1]今天重温邓小平的这些告诫,在新的国际环境下观察美国和中美关系,更感到发人深省。一、冷眼看美国冷战结束后的第一场战争———海湾战争,对维护和加强美国的世界霸权地位意义重大。但是,去年美国入侵伊…     

Review of Dr S S Brand's report on the finances and economy of Soweto*

This article is a review of a report by Dr S S Brand of the Development Bank of Southern Africa on the economy and finances of Soweto. The major recommendations are summarized and briefly analysed in terms of four major demands of Soweto residents.     

Union status and merger activity in the U.S.

Theories on merger activity and union membership suggest that conglomerate mergers should enhance the probability of managers employing nonunion workers, while nonconglomerate mergers should be associated with a greater probability of union membership. To test this hypothesis, a standard sample-selection derived union status equation is estimated which includes measures of three types of merger activity as explanatory variables. The findings suggest that being in an industry with substantial conglomerate mergers reduces the chance that a worker is a union member. All other types of mergers are positively associated with the probability of union membership. This pattern holds even after controlling for the possibility of merger endogeneity.