Exchange rate volatility effects on labour markets

With the transition to the euro, exchange rate volatility between the countries participating in European Monetary Union has been eliminated, reducing uncertainty and transaction costs. The other side of the coin is the loss of the exchange rate as a potential mechanism of adjustment to external shocks. The present article uses the case of Germany to study the implications of EMU for labour markets.     

Market volatility and the demand for hedging in stock index futures

This study examines the relation between stock market volatility and the demand for hedging in S&P 500 stock index futures contracts. Open interest is used as a proxy for hedging demand. The analysis employs unique data that identify separately the open interest of large hedgers, large speculators, and smaller traders. Volatility estimates are decomposed into expected and unexpected components, to assess whether traders’ reactions to volatility depend upon its predictability. Results indicate that daily open interest for hedgers increases when unexpected volatility increases. Increases in unexpected volatility may cause hedgers to raise their estimates of future expected volatility, and hence increase their demand for hedging. Open interest of speculators is not related to expected volatility, and is only weakly related to unexpected volatility. The increase in the participation of hedgers in periods of higher volatility is significantly larger than the increase in the participation of speculators. The results suggest that increases in stock market volatility increase the demand for hedging. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 20: 105–125, 2000     

Global and regional range-based volatility spillover effects

This study extends the univariate Weibull conditional autoregressive range (CARR) model to establish a bivariate Weibull CARR (BWCARR) model to investigate the range-based volatility spillover effect. The empirical results indicate that a conditional autoregressive range relationship exists on the US, Japan, mainland China, Hong Kong and Taiwan stock markets. The new BWCARR model is more credible and efficient than the CARR model. Moreover, the range-based volatility for the US and Japan has an impact on Taiwan, indicating that there exists a range-based global and regional stock market spillover effect that has an impact on the Taiwanese stock market.     

The impact of volatility derivatives on S&P500 volatility

This study investigates whether the newly cultivated platform of volatility derivatives has altered the volatility of the underlying S&P500 index. The findings suggest that the onset of the volatility derivatives trading has lowered the volatility of both the cash market volatility and the cash market index, and significantly reduced the impact of shocks to volatility. When big sudden events hit financial markets, however, the volatility of volatility seems to elevate in the U.S. equity market as a result of increased global correlations. Regardless of the period under examination and the estimator employed, long‐run volatility persistence is present. The latter drops significantly when the credit crunch period is excluded from the post‐event date sample period. The correlation between the broad equity index and the return volatility remains low, which in turn strengthens the role of volatility derivatives to facilitate portfolio diversification. The analysis also shows that volatility is mean reverting, whereas market data support the impact of information asymmetries on conditional volatility. In the post‐event date phase, no asymmetries are found when the recent crisis is not accounted for. Finally, comparisons with other international equity indices, with no volatility derivatives listed, unveil that these indices exhibit higher volatility and slower recovery from shocks than the S&P500 index. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 29:1190–1213, 2009     

Uncertainty and the volatility forecasting power of option-implied volatility

This study investigates the impact of uncertainty on the volatility forecasting power of option-implied volatility. Option-implied volatility is a powerful predictor of future volatility, particularly during periods of high uncertainty. This is consistent with option-implied volatility being largely determined by volatility-informed traders (rather than directional traders) when uncertainty is high. New volatility forecasting models that incorporate such interaction outperform benchmark models, both in- and out-of-sample. The new models also better predict future volatility during the 2008 global financial crisis, for which benchmark models perform poorly. The results are robust to alternative choices of benchmark models, loss functions, and estimation windows.     

Understanding reserve volatility in emerging markets: a look at the long-run

In this paper, we examine long-run determinants of cross-country variation in reserve volatility for 30 emerging market economies from 1973 to 2000. Reserve holdings and openness are found to be the most important explanatory variables of reserve volatility. The empirical results are robust for a range of control variables, including monetary variables, the degree of financial development, and the level of indebtedness. We view these results as establishing interesting stylized facts that may be helpful in evaluating reserve volatility as a crisis indicator.     

股票市场波动性研究述评

创业板市场的波动性研究,对于完善我国证券市场机制、危机风险管理有着重要的意义。本文从研究对象、杠杆效应、长记忆性、模型拟合的角度描述股票市场的一些国内研究成果,即GARCH模型的发展和应用。     

The Influence of Light on Consumer Behavior at the Food Market

The article deals with a comprehensive, interdisciplinary examination of the effect of lighting on the purchasing decisions of consumers and the perception of lighting on the food market. It is the integration of questionnaire survey and measuring of light intensity and color temperature (chromaticity), respectively, of emitted color spectrum in grocery shops. The object of the study is the accent lighting in served shop departments of fresh food (meat, deli, dairy products, fruit, vegetables, bread, pastry) but also in other departments of supermarkets (wine, alcohol, organic food, specials, seasonal goods). Based on the light tests conducted in retail stores, we have identified the light conditions in national and international chains operating in Slovakia. Using EEG equipment in simulated conditions, we discovered true consumer preferences for different lighting conditions (color temperature, color rendering index) for the selected type of food. The article concludes with certain managerial implications in the sphere of food retailing and recommendations for further research studies.     

Market microstructure of FT-SE 100 index futures: An intraday empirical analysis

This article examines the market microstructure of the FT-SE Index futures market by analyzing the intraday patterns of bid-ask spreads and trading activity. The patterns are remarkably different from those of stock and options markets because of the futures market's open outcry system with frenzied scalpers/short-term marketmakers. Spreads are stable over the day, but decline sharply at the close and increase when U.S. macroeconomic news is distributed. Traders actively trade at the open with narrow spreads and large trade sizes. Volatility and volume have higher values at the open and close and when U.S. news is released. The overall results suggest that information asymmetry in the index futures market is insignificant, and traders find it easy to control inventory. The results are also broadly consistent with the Grossman and Miller (1988) model that describes liquidity as the price of transaction demand for immediacy. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 19: 31–58, 1999     

Relative price volatility under Sudden Stops: The relevance of balance sheet effects

Sudden Stops are associated with increased volatility in relative prices. We introduce a model based on information acquisition to rationalize this increased volatility. An empirical analysis of the conditional variance of the wholesale price to consumer price ratio using panel ARCH techniques confirms the relevance of Sudden Stops and potential balance sheet effects as key determinants of relative price volatility, where balance sheet effects are captured by the interaction of a proxy for potential changes in the real exchange rate (linked to the degree of external leverage of the absorption of tradable goods) and a measure of domestic liability dollarization.     

市场均衡就业区间与劳动市场运行特点的深层透视

市场经济条件下,厂商将其供给量调整到合理水平所需的费用可称为微观调节成本。由于存在微观调节成本这种特殊的经济运行费用,因而传统分析中宏观层面上的就业均衡中心点两侧便分别存在着“低位临界点”与“高位临界点”,这两点界定了一个“市场均衡就业区间”,社会就业一旦进入该区间,市场机制便不可能再对其作出调节。确认“市场均衡就业区间”的存在,将使我们在更深层次上认识和把握现代市场经济条件下劳动市场的运行特点:劳动市场是“连续非出清市场”;劳动市场的波动是供求总量波动的“减幅谐振”;劳动市场存在两个层面的运行失衡;劳动市场的调控需采取多种政策措施。     

教育质量波动性对住宅价格的影响研究

“学区房热”源于优质教育资源总量不足、学区间教育质量分布不均。通过分离家庭的学区房购置时刻与住房教育价值实现时刻,区分家庭在事前与事后对住宅附加教育收益的不同评估方式,从微观视角分析学区教育质量波动性的不同是导致择校现象和学区房溢价的另一方面原因。为减轻教育质量波动性给义务教育入学环境带来的负面影响,推动绩效公开、持续投入资源、发展一贯制教育是可行的教育调控政策。该发现还可推广于其他具有质量波动性的公共服务,提示在城市建设时应降低这些设施与服务的质量风险,以便从全方位稳定住宅市场价格。     

The European Single Market at 25

This year we celebrate the 25th anniversary of the European Single Market. The Single Market’s achievements cover various areas but there is still room for improvement. Against the background of this historic and economic development, this article discusses different legal acts that are being negotiated and outlines suggestions for improvement.     

New evidence on expiration‐day effects using realized volatility: An intraday analysis for the Spanish stock exchange

Additional evidence is provided on expiration effects in the Ibex 35 stock index futures market using realized volatility as proposed by T. G. Andersen, T. Bollerslev, F. X. Diebold, and P. Labys (2003). Findings reveal not only a significant increase in spot trading activity, but also the existence of a significant jump in spot volatility at index futures expiration. Moreover, the importance of the data frequency considered is analyzed. Our research reveals that the use of GARCH methodology from daily data does not have the ability to statistically assess such expiration‐day effect. Additional empirical evidence is provided for the S&P 500 stock index futures market. Neither unconditional nor conditional realized volatility has a significant increase at expiration for the U.S. market, suggesting that this effect is specific for the Spanish market, at least for the period analyzed. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 26:923–938, 2006     

把握消费热点 选准市场定位

消费新热点反映出消费者新的消费愿望，构成了消费者对未来消费的潜在需求的方向。企业要在激烈的市场竞争中站稳脚跟并不断取胜，必须重视消费者、研究居民消费需求变化、关注居民消费热点。以此为依据，才能抓住市场定位的基础、选准市场定位的方向、找到市场创新的核心。