GARCH-stable as a model of futures price movements

A GARCH-stable process is tested as a model of the distribution of daily futures prices. The GARCH-stable process cannot be rejected as a model of 12 of the 37 price series considered. The evidence regarding stable distributions as a model of futures prices is not as unfavorable as suggested by some past research. The remaining rejections of the GARCH-stable model could be due to the inappropriateness of the stable distribution assumption or to other factors such as ignoring day-of-the-week effects and price limits.     

Demography as a forecasting tool

The European population is rapidly ageing. This implies changing economic and social relations between the generations. In turn this precipitates economic change. In particular the welfare bill in the future needs to be paid for more dependants by a smaller working population. This fundamental shift also changes the conditions for productivity growth, trade and even monetary policy. Using demographic projections to forecast these changes and integrate them into futures scenarios contributes to realism in the futures envisioned. Demographic processes can be influenced by policy, but the feedback is slow. This ensures the usefulness of demographic forecasting but it also implies that policy decisions need to be taken well in advance of the problems that ageing will cause. At horizons beyond 10–20 years there are ample opportunity to adapt the society to avoid unacceptable scenarios. Before that the scope for action is much less and much more constrained. The inertia of the demographic structure is such that it is hard and probably costly to turn unwanted trends caused by unbalanced age structures. For example, a likely consequence of the developing scarcity of labour in Europe is that the demand for education goes down in spite of the desirability for society to expand higher education.     

Fed funds futures variance futures

We develop a novel contract design, the fed funds futures (FFF) variance futures, which reflects the expected realized basis point variance of an underlying FFF rate. The valuation of short-term FFF variance futures is completely model-independent in a general setting that includes the cases where the underlying FFF rate exhibits jumps and where the realized variance is computed by sampling the FFF rate discretely. The valuation of longer-term FFF variance futures is subject to an approximation error which we quantify and show is negligible. We also provide an illustrative example of the practical valuation and use of the FFF variance futures contract.     

Alternative futures for a multi-civilizational Europe

This article discusses the alternative futures for a multi-civilizational European Union; in other words, its capacity to embrace non-Western civilizations such as the Indian, Islamic, Chinese and others. It brings out three scenarios: (1) a Eurocentric future; (2) a pragmatically multi-civilizational European Union; and (3) a multi-civilizational European Union. Normatively, the third scenario, a genuinely multi-civilizational future appears the most preferred alternative for the rise of European Union as a respected and credible global actor, which plays a significant role in the stabilization and development of its neighbourhood regions and in the resolution of global level issues. Along with incentives, barriers, as discussed in relevant sections, are also explicit which might lead to two other scenarios if not eliminated. Practically, the article concludes that the co-existence of European and other civilizations within the European Union is more likely to lead to a multi-civilizational future than any attempt to integrate those civilizations within the dominant European tradition.     

The nature and value of futures studies or do futures have a future?

The paper discusses the necessity for futures studies and argues the need for methods giving explicable understandings of future possibilities so that decisions and policies can be as future-proof as possible. A taxonomy for futures methodologies based on their passive, preventive or anticipatory characteristics is proposed. The anticipatory methodologies are further categorised into subjective and numerical approaches. The paper goes on to review some of the principal numerical approaches such as system dynamics and econometric methods. The subjective approaches, such as the extended scenario, Delphi and Field Anomaly Relaxation are considered and it is concluded that, in general, they, and especially Field Anomaly Relaxation, are the more fruitful line of attack on the futures problem. Some directions for further research are suggested.     

Nonviolent futures

Nonviolent action — including methods such as rallies, strikes, boycotts and sit-ins — has become increasingly important in the past century as a method for waging conflict and promoting social change. Nonviolent action has been adopted by many social movements, yet its potential impact has only begun to be realised. Some areas for future expansion of the role of nonviolent action include replacing military defence, technological design, challenging capitalism, bureaucratic politics, information struggles and interpersonal behaviour.     

Generational accounting as a tool for modelling social expenditure in Europe

Exerting an increasing pressure for reform, the demographic ageing process currently under way in Europe will be a main determinant of the development of social expenditure. This article gives an introduction to the method of generational accounting, an instrument designed to capture the effects of demographic change on future public budgets. The method is illustrated by generational accounts for France and a cross-country comparison of implicit public liabilities in Europe. Weighing the method’s advantages and shortcomings against each other, the article discusses the role that generational accounting can and should play in modelling the future of social expenditure in Europe.     

Rethinking moral futures

In the context of a wider discussion on ‘integral futures’ this paper reconsiders the openly integrative tendency of some moral-hermeneutic agendas. In relating a story that includes a personal failure to bring about ‘integrality’ despite having the best of intentions, a third space is opened as a way to rethink moral futures.     

Media art futures

The artworks and debates surrounding the media art scene are used in this article as indicators of advanced research into the state of network communications and what they can tell us about the possible futures of both art and the globalisation process, insofar as both depend on the state of telecommunications. In particular, the article focuses on the claims of locative media art that small mobile devices provide a utopian platform for social experiment. The theme of mobility is then investigated, distinguishing the freedom of capital to move from the stringent controls on human migration.     

Rethinking futures studies

The author traces the development of futures studies from the Second World war and considers its philosophical basis. Futures thinking is seen as vision; futurists have special responsibilities as they are part of the world they describe. Futures thinking is seen as a learning process.