Modelling the inflation process in transition economies: Empirical comparison of Poland, Hungary and Czech Republic

This paper starts from the observation that inflation in transition economies appears to be persistently high and volatile and attempts to provide some empirical characterisation of the inflation process in three such transition economies: Poland, Hungary and Czech Republic. We first consider the role of monetary growth as a major causal factor for inflation in these economies, and argue that the evidence provides rather weak support for the causal relationship. We then propose a transition economy cost-plus model and estimate this using the equilibrium-correction modelling (ECM) strategy augmented by introduction of a number of transitory factors and changes in the internal structure of the real economy which we believe may have had a significant impact on inflation in these economies. We show that this approach enables us to account for long-run inflation in these economies from the early 1980s to the present despite the turbulence of the latter part of the sample period. Our results support wage and exchange rate based inflation policies.     

我国服务型政府构建过程中公民参与存在的问题

随着我国服务型政府的构建,公民参与的渠道和方式不断丰富,公民的参与意识和能力不断提高,但公民参与的制度化和程序化程度不高,与我国日益扩大的公民参与需求不相适应,主要体现在公民参与的有序性与无序性、公利性与私利性、民主性和效率性之间的冲突。     

The Determinants of Trade Credit in Transition Countries

The paper investigates the determinants of trade credit in transition countries. Traditional theories of trade credit extension suggest that both financial and commercial motives may induce non-financial companies to assume a role of financial intermediation. Furthermore, specific conditions of financing for companies in transition countries may reserve to trade credit an important role in financial structure. We test the determinants of accounts receivable and accounts payable on a sample of about 9300 companies from nine Central and Eastern European Countries. Results suggest that both financial and commercial motives explain the credit behaviour of firms. However, we do not find generalised patterns in the use of trade credit among all transition countries.     

The impact of business innovation modes on SME innovation performance in post-Soviet transition economies: The case of Belarus

This study analyzes the most effective innovation modes (‘science and technology-based innovation’, STI, and ‘doing, using and interacting-based innovation’, DUI) for business innovation performance in the context of post-Soviet Transition Economies (PSTE). Their specificities are expected to influence both their business innovation modes and their impact on innovation output. In particular, we aim at identifying the specificities of PSTE in that the DUI mode alone (and its specific drivers) is more relevant than the STI mode alone (and its drivers). In our hypothesis, this outcome should be even stronger in the context of non-technological types of innovation (e.g. organizational innovation).     

Inflationary bias in middle to late transition Czech Republic

A series of studies has now confirmed the Filer and Hanousek’s [Economic Systems 24 (2000) 285] suggestion that inflation mismeasurement during the transition is a serious problem of the same relative magnitude (and greater absolute magnitude), as in advanced market economies. During the 1990s in the Czech Republic, inflation was overstated by more than four percentage points a year. The largest portion of this bias is due to uncaptured quality changes. In effect, Czech consumers are living considerably better after the fall of communism, but this increase in living standards is manifested through better quality, rather than greater quantities of goods consumed.     

Inequality and reforms in transition countries

Distributional patterns evolved quite differently and stabilized at diversified levels across the Central–Eastern European and former Soviet Union countries which underwent transition. In this paper we provide an overview of income inequality dynamics for 22 transition countries from 1989 to 2008 and of the explanations and interpretations proposed by the main literature. We then highlight that while the effects of different transition approaches on output dynamics and other macroeconomic aggregates have been largely analysed, scarce attention has been devoted so far to their impact on distributive patterns. However, this kind of analysis might usefully contribute to complete the complex picture of the many social, economic and structural factors affected by transition and provide useful policy insights for those countries still experiencing deep institutional change.     

Exploring the Impact of Agricultural Price and Trade Policy Reform under Transition in Albania

Agricultural policy decision making in economies undergoing transition to market is in need of empirical tools for assessing the impact of alternative policy options. The econometric means available for such exercise, however, are limited for lack of data and structural breaks in economic behaviour. Synthetic, partial equilibrium, multi-market models offer a potential alternative. Such models have been used extensively, even in advanced economies, to offer valuable insights on the impact of alternative policy options. This paper shows the use of such a partial equilibrium, multi-market, synthetic-type model as a tool for agricultural policy analysis in a country in transition. The model is applied for Albania, a predominantly agricultural country that, after a period of centralism and autarky, aims to re-join the international economic system. The model, albeit its many limitations, offers some useful insights on the impact of alternative options available for agricultural price and trade policy. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

转型期汽车营销异业联盟实施策略研究

异业品牌联盟是转型期汽车企业寻求突破的营销创新战略。本文对汽车营销实施异业联盟战略的流程进行分析,阐述了异业联盟间的产品策略、价格策略、促销策略和服务策略。     

Training and enterprise performance in transition: evidence from China

The role of training and its impact on company performance is studied in different types of enterprises in a transitional economy. A sample of manufacturing enterprises is drawn, using China as a case study. The findings indicate that training is perceived to be relatively important in non-state-owned enterprises (non-SOEs). Training objectives have three major dimensions, namely enhancing working relationships, tackling skill deficiencies and skills development. SOEs tend to focus more on skill development, while non-SOEs emphasize both enhancing working relationships and skills improvement. Comparing the expectations of training and the perceived achievement of training objectives, the gap is seen to be small within all types of enterprises, and training effectiveness is perceived to be similar. The production function estimation shows that there is a positive relationship between training expenditures and enterprise productivity.     

Exchange rate, inflation and unemployment in East European economies: the case of Poland and Hungary*

The aim of the paper is to model the impact of exchange rate on both inflation and unemployment variables in economies which are characterized by important structural changes, i.e. a transition phase moving from centralized economies towards market economies. This phenomenon, which is common to the East European countries, stressed different effects both for what concerns the behaviour of economic agents and for what concerns fiscal and monetary measures adopted by governments and aiming to keep under control the inflation–unemployment trade off. Time series relationships between these variables are investigated within an econometric model. Economic theory and the available data on the hypothetically relevant variables, along with the consideration of the main facts occurred in the period under study, characterize our information set. It is found that single equation analysis yields inefficient inference relative to the whole system analysis, and important structural changes are detected which reflect possible breaks in the structure of the economic system along with a change in economic policy.     

Bank valuation in new EU member countries

This paper studies the role of institutional reforms in affecting bank valuation in new European Union (EU) member countries. It takes advantage of the dynamic nature of institutional reforms in transition economies and explores the causal effects of those reforms on banks’ Tobin's Q over the period of 1997–2008. Using a difference-in-difference approach, the paper shows that Tobin's Q increases substantially after these countries reform their legal institutions and liberalize banking. However, it decreases after stock market reforms. After further examination of the interactive relationships between different reforms and bank valuation, it is observed that when the banking reform is well implemented, legal reform can have a stronger impact on banks’ Tobin's Q. On the other hand, banking reform and security market reform has a substitutive relationship. The analysis also suggests that foreign ownership, market power, and asset diversification significantly affect Tobin's Q. These results are robust even after simultaneously controlling for equity risk.     

Fiscal performance and elections in the context of a transition economy

It is widely accepted that, in democratic societies, incumbent governments may use various means, such as discretionary spending, to increase their chances of re-election. In the context of potential budget constraints (e.g., large debt), the incumbent might consider alternative means. Tax collection performance could be one such means that is prone to incumbents’ electoral manipulation, particularly in transition countries with a weak institutional framework. Investigating Albania, we show that fiscal performance, measured by monthly tax revenues, is poor before elections, especially in elections that result in political change. Before all elections, we observe a reduction in tax collection ranging from 3.2 percentage points in the twelve months before elections to 4.0 percentage points in the six months before elections. This implies a drop of more than half in fiscal performance compared with its long-term “natural” or average rate. Moreover, the deterioration in performance is considerably larger, by two- to threefold, before “change elections” (i.e. elections that result in a change of the governing party). After these elections, fiscal performance improves. The key to reducing deterioration in fiscal performance associated with elections is to establish rules and institutional oversight (independent or bipartisan) that reduce the discretion of tax authorities.     

Efficiency in Banking: Empirical Evidence from the Czech Republic

The paper examines the cost efficiency of the Czech-banking system in the 1990s by applying the distribution free approach model. Reported results indicate that foreign banks were on average more efficient than the other banks, although their efficiency was comparable with the ‘good’ small banks’ efficiency in early years of their operation. Based on the estimated results it is argued that early privatisation of state-owned commercial banks and more liberal policy towards foreign banks in the early stage of transition would have enhanced the efficiency in the banking system. Anita Taci - The views and opinions are those of the author and not necessarily those of the EBRD.     

Non-wage benefits,corporate ownership and firm performance in post-communist economies: evidence from Ukraine

The economic reforms in the transition economies of Central and Eastern Europe have fundamentally reshaped ownership and governance of economic production, notably through the privatization of former state-owned enterprises. These reforms were expected to transform management practices by displacing ‘cradle-to-grave’ welfare arrangements administered by state-owned enterprises. Using data drawn from two large samples of Ukrainian establishments, we investigate, in two different time points, the relationship between non-wage benefits and firm performance during the period of transition to a market economy (1994–2004). We found that non-wage benefits continued to be a critical feature of HRM practices in Ukraine during this period, and were positively associated with firm performance.     

The Unemployment–Output Tradeoff in Transition Economies: Does Okun''s Law Apply?

This paper investigates whether an Okun-type relationship between output and unemployment is taking hold in formerly planned economies as they move towards the market. Using a first-differences variant of Okun's Law, we test for its presence in 25 transition countries divided into groups of ``reform leaders' and ``reform laggards.' For leaders, represented by the 10 European Union (EU) accession countries, Okun's Law is detected in both 1991–94 and 1995–2000 periods. For laggards, represented by the remaining group, it is present only for the later period and only when countries affected by wars are removed from the sample. A comparison of unemployment–output elasticities and unemployment levels in EU candidates and EU members themselves indicates that their labor markets might be converging.     

Vietnam in transition: SMEs and the necessitating environment for entrepreneurship development

A transitional economy has been characterized as experiencing a large amount of economic and social change. SMEs can be considered as the vehicle for entrepreneurship development in such a context. The purpose of this paper is to further the investigation of the favourability of the transitional environment on SMEs and entrepreneurship in Vietnam. Using a new approach, we analyse the transitional economy discourse via examining government policies, international organization reports and academic articles on Vietnam. Our findings suggest that, in Vietnam, compared to an overall normative framework developed from a wide literature review, the settings generally support a vibrant transitional entrepreneurship development and SMEs. However, more needs to be done to build up favourable sociocultural setting and effective business support systems in the country. Implications for the relevant stakeholders and suggestions for future research in the East Asian and Central and Eastern Europe regions are also provided.     

State history and the finance-growth nexus: Evidence from transition economies

In this paper, we analyze the growth effects of state history and financial development in transition economies. We show that accumulated experience with established statehood yields significant results and transforms the impact of finance on growth in East-Central Europe, Southeastern Europe and the former Soviet Union. State history as a proxy for long-run ancestral exposure to institutions, political organization and centralization negatively affects the finance-growth nexus. We argue that a long state history is likely to generate extractive institutions that facilitate the provision of soft budget constraints and thereby impair the finance-growth nexus.     

Growth empirics with institutional measures for transition countries

This paper investigates the importance of institutions as a determinant of growth and foreign direct investment (FDI) in 25 transition countries for 1990–1998. It introduces some novel institutional measures, performs extensive sensitivity tests, and checks for reverse causation. Estimation results suggest that state institutions in particular are quite robustly important for growth and FDI. The relationship between institutions and growth is likely to be a causation, that between institutions and FDI less so. The significance of macroeconomic stabilization and liberalization is also confirmed, but multicollinearity problems make it impossible to properly judge their importance relative to that of institutions.     

Migration in search of good government

Residents both enjoy the policies adopted in their cities, and choose those policies. If some people can better evaluate policies than can others, then the most perceptive people will be the most willing to move to the city with better policies, thereby making that city more likely to adopt good policies in the future. Such migration can cause agglomeration, with some cities prospering and others failing.