How To Assign Probabilities If You Must

Empirical evidence can sometimes be incorporated in a probabilistic analysis by conditioning with respect to the observations. Usually, the underlying probability distribution and also the conditional distribution are not completely known. The assignment of probabilities will then require a compromise. The making of such a compromise goes beyond mathematical theory: a statistical discussion is needed. It depends on the context whether the result of such discussion is almost compelling, reasonable, or not really agreeable. This is illustrated by means of a simple example from the area of predictive distributional inference.     

多倍角三角函数展开式的一组有趣的性质

笔者发现同类的奇倍角三角函数展开式形式上具有异常的相似性。本文中对此给出严格的数学证明,并通过几道数学问题说明了此性质的应用方法。     

医院管办分离及其效益分析——以上海市公共卫生临床中心为例

目的:研究公卫中心管办分离前后效益对比。方法:收集2004-2010年连续7年数据报表,以比率分析法和环比法进行数据分析。结果:投入产出均呈上升状态。病床使用率、总支出、医疗支出、固定资产、在职职工人数和卫技人员年均增长率分别为14.45%、100.09%、25.21%、82.69%、5.05%和6.93%。门急诊人数、出院人次、病床周转率、在职职工人均年业务收入、在职职工人均年诊疗人次数和医师人均每日担负诊疗人次年均增长率分别为25.55%、18.55%、29.25%、12.26%、18.19%和19.21%。平均住院日、收支结余率和总资产周转率年均负增长,分别为11.2%、3.23%和5.91%。结论:进一步理顺"管办分离"治理结构,合理投入资产,降低医院管理成本,提高运营资产效率。     

交通行政职能转变与行业协会的发展

随着社会主义市场经济体制的建立,转变交通行政职能,发展中介组织已成为市场经济发展和机构改革的迫切需要。随着交通行政职能的转变,行业协会的作用越来越明显。基于行业协会的职能及地位,本文提出了我国交通行业协会存在的问题,并对大力发展交通行业协会提出一些对策建议,为深化机构改革,加快交通行政职能转变提供一些参考。     

试论高校图书馆读者服务职能的社会化拓展

文章从高校图书馆读者职能社会化问题的讨论出发,探究了高校图书馆的社会属性及社会化服务职能,并对高校图书馆读者服务职能社会化拓展提出相应对策。     

Forecasting electricity prices using bid data

Market liberalization and the expansion of variable renewable energy sources in power systems have made the dynamics of electricity prices more uncertain, leading them to show high volatility with sudden, unexpected price spikes. Thus, developing more accurate price modeling and forecasting techniques is a challenge for all market participants and regulatory authorities. This paper proposes a forecasting approach based on using auction data to fit supply and demand electricity curves. More specifically, we fit linear (LinX-Model) and logistic (LogX-Model) curves to historical sale and purchase bidding data from the Iberian electricity market to estimate structural parameters from 2015 to 2019. Then we use time series models on structural parameters to predict day-ahead prices. Our results provide a solid framework for forecasting electricity prices by capturing the structural characteristics of markets.     

A Flexible,Globally Regular Representation of Convex Production Possibilities Frontiers

This note describes how a convex N-input-M -output production possibility frontier can be locally approximated by means of a flexible Nonseparable Nested Constant-Elasticity-of-Substitution/Constant-Elasticity-of-Transformation (NNCES-CET) restricted profit function. This technique yields a summary representation of technology sets that is globally regular and thus suitable for use in applications where regularity is crucial.     

Business Sector Production in the Short and Long Run in Israel

Engle-Granger representation theory is used to estimate the secular and cyclical determinants of business output in Israel during 1960–1988. The specification of the secular production function is based on the technique of cointegration, while the cyclical, or short-term, production function is specified in terms of an error correction model. In the preferred model of the secular production function returns to scale are slightly increasing and the productivity of Palestinian workers is approximately 40 percent of Israeli workers. In the short-term production function total factor productivity is pro-cyclical.     

青年志愿服务在高校基本职能发挥中的作用及建议——以云南农业大学科普志愿者进社区系列活动为例

青年志愿活动秉承"奉献、友爱、互助、进步"的基本宗旨,开展"服务他人、奉献社会"的社会公益活动,让参与活动的大学生自身能力以及思想境界得到提高、完善和发展,同时有效地解决了一些社会活动服务及发展需要,树立起高校服务社会的一面旗帜。     

解析函数的几个等价命题及其应用

解析函数是复变函数论研究的主要对象,它具有重要的性质和广泛应用。本文在教材内容的基础上,进一步探讨解析函数的几种等价条件,文章首先给出了解析函数的四种不同的定义,然后运用柯西积分定理、泰勒定理及递推的方法,证明了这四种不同定义彼此相互等价;探讨了它们的一些应用,从而使学生能够用从多种方法判断函数是否解析,为以后应用解析函数打下了坚实的基础。     

THE APPLICABILITY OF THE TRADITIONAL THEORY OF ECONOMIC POLICY

Abstract. The traditional theory of economic policy requires targets, instruments, an empirical economic model, and a social welfare or criterion function to be specified in order to derive the optimal economic policy. Empirical studies of reaction functions suggest that economic policy is carried out in some systematic manner, subject to interference from political factors. This survey addresses the problems of specifying, estimating and applying an economic model when economic policy is following a path specified by a reaction function. Attention is paid to rational expectations, the Lucas'critique, and the policy neutrality proposition. Lack of knowledge of the policy maker's objective function poses the most serious difficulty when applying the theory of economic policy. Various methods of determining this function are reviewed, and the possibility that policy makers might be satisficing is discussed. The role played by political factors is considered in the light of the public choice literature.     

Multilinear approximation on rectangles and the related moment problem

The Edmundson–Madansky (E–M) inequality provides an upper bound of the expectation of a convex function of a random vector, provided the components of the random vector are stochastically independent. Frauendorfer and Kall extended the E–M inequality to the dependent case. This paper provides the natural algebraic setting for this extension. It is shown that multilinear approximation is the basic idea. The results and the calculations are simplified considerably by the use of Kronecker products. Moreover, the class of all functions for which the general E–M bound holds is characterized completely. It includes many nonconvex functions, for instance the multi-chord-dominated functions, which include the multiconvex functions.     

论文化资源

文章对文化资源进行了简单论述,首先对文化资源进行了定义,随后分析了文化资源的特性,并对文化资源作了分类,最后阐述了文化资源的作用。     

关于管理会计理论的辨析

针对《成本管理会计》总论中存在的观点模糊、架构混乱等问题,论文比较深入地探索了管理会计的基本理论,包括对象、职能和实质,创造性地提出了管理会计的新概念和框架结构。     

浅析高校教学秘书的职能与作用

高校教学管理中教学秘书是重要的管理人员,起着承上启下的作用,本文从教学秘书应具有的素质、应具有的职能做了阐述,更要求教学秘书专业化管理水平,以促进他们在学校的发展中发挥更大的作用。     

企业科技创新中的地方政府职能分析——以淮安市为例

科技创新是企业获取市场竞争优势、培育核心竞争力的基础,也是优化地区产业结构、提升地区竞争力的重要手段。地方政府在企业科技创新过程中起着举足轻重的作用。以淮安市为例,通过对淮安市政府在企业科技创新中的作用分析,提炼地方政府在企业科技创新中的职能。     

管理职能与服务意识的碰撞

文章从管理职能与服务意识碰撞的外在表现切入,详细地分析了管理职能与服务意识碰撞的根源,进而对解决这种碰撞进行了理论思考。     

Two Perspectives on DEA: Unveiling the Link between CCR and Shephard

In this paper we contrast the DEA and activity analysis approaches by Charnes, Cooper and Rhodes (1978) and Shephard (1970), respectively. We show that by appropriately normalizing Shephard's output price model the two approaches coincide.     

Covariance functions that are stationary or nonstationary in space and stationary in time

There is a great demand for statistical modelling of phenomena that evolve in both space and time, and thus, there is a growing literature on covariance function models for spatio-temporal processes. Although several nonseparable space–time covariance models are available in the literature, very few of them can be used for spatially anisotropic data. In this paper, we propose a new class of stationary nonseparable covariance functions that can be used for both geometrically and zonally anistropic data. In addition, we show some desirable mathematical features of this class. Another important aspect, only partially covered by the literature, is that of spatial nonstationarity. We show a very simple criteria allowing for the construction of space–time covariance functions that are nonseparable, nonstationary in space and stationary in time. Part of the theoretical results proposed in the paper will then be used for the analysis of Irish wind speed data as in HASLETT and RAFTERY ( Applied Statistics , 38 , 1989, 1).