The effects of public expenditures on labour productivity in Europe

Empirica - In this paper, we analyse the effects of public expenditures and their structure on productivity growth in industry and services in the European Union (EU) countries (1996–2017)....     

AFDC and illegitimacy ratios: a vector-autoregressive model

The expansion of the government programme of Aid to Families of Dependent Children (AFDC) plays a major role in theoretical explanations of the sharply rising trend in US illegitimacy ratios–the proportion of births occurring to unwed mothers. To date, this role has not been supported by empirical evidence. The present study uses a new approach: time-series data and Granger causation. A series of tests shows robust causal impacts of AFDC on non-white illegitimacy ratios. A counterfactual simulation reveals that about half the increase in non-white illegitimacy ratios over the past two decades can be attributed to an ‘AFDC effect’.     

Keynes and Wagner on government expenditures and economic development: the case of a developing economy

This paper investigates the Keynesian view and the Wagner’s Law on the role of public expenditure on economic growth for Malaysia (1970–2004). The empirical results using the Auto-Regression Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and the ‘bounds test’ (Pesaran et al. in J Appl Econ 16:289–326, 2001) showed evidence of a long run relationship between total expenditures (including expenditures on defense, education, development and agriculture) and Gross National Product. The results also show that with the structural break in 1998, the long run causality is bi-directional for GNP and expenditures on administration and health, supporting both Keynes view and Wagner’s Law. For all other expenditure categories the long run causality runs from GNP to the expenditures, which supports Wagner’s Law. An erratum to this article can be found at     

Learning rational expectations: The finite state case

This paper is devoted to the question of whether traders can learn rational expectations from repeated observations of market data in a stationary environment with finitely many exogenous states of the world. The learning problem is placed in the context of an iterative adjustment process which achieves equilibrium if traders have rational expectations. The main result is that even if traders begin with no knowledge of their environment, there exists an estimation procedure which converges to rational expectations when the environment satisfies a certain regularity condition. The regularity condition is shown to be generic.     

Incentive regulation in local telecommunications: The effects on price markups

The governing bodies of the telecommunications industry instituted a major shift from rate of return to price cap regulation in an effort to foster competition and improve efficiency. This paper focuses on the local exchange market and examines the price markup before and after the implementation of price cap regulation to measure the effects of the change on consumer welfare. The average price markup increased slightly after price cap regulation; however, the average price decreased, indicating that consumers benefited without firms losing from the regulatory shift.      

The effects of regulations on state liquor prices

Several estimation methods agree that state regulations such as resale price maintenance and retail price posting affected the prices of liquor brands up to the mid-1970s in the US states in which the distribution system is privately owned; before-versus-after analysis using the quasiexperimental method provides the strongest evidence. The effects of particular regulations are not so clearcut, however.In the 1970s, the regulations supporting these practices began to be removed. The regulations that continued in effect seem to have lost their potency about that time. The effects of regulation no longer are seen.This paper is an outgrowth of a senior thesis by the second author. We appreciate useful information from Steve Barsby and James M. Ferguson, and helpful comments from Stanley Ornstein and Dennis W. Carlton. Gary L. Marshall of the Distilled Spirits Council of the US provided the information that After 1984, DISCUS no longer published the retailer's prices for distilled spirits sold at retail establishments (correspondence of October 25, 1993).     

Disentangling regulatory policy: The effects of state regulations on trucking rates

This paper combines state-level data on trucking rates with information on state-level regulations to estimate the independent effect on rates from three different types of motor carrier regulations: rate regulation; entry regulation; and the provision of antitrust immunity for decisions made jointly by motor carrier rate bureaus. The empirical results indicate that state-level motor carrier regulations generally increase trucking rates, with entry regulation having the largest effect in the LTL (less-than-truckload) sector and rate regulation having the largest effect in the TL (truckload) sector. The study also examines interaction effects among the three types of regulations and concludes that the combination of strict entry requirements and antitrust immunity leads to significant increases in trucking rates.This project was begun when both authors were in the Bureau of Economics of the Federal Trade Commission. The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Commission or any individual Commissioner. We are grateful to Ed Rastatter of the Department of Transportation for granting us access to the data analyzed in this report, and to Bruce Allen of Wharton who provided them to us in machine readable form. We thank James MacDonald, Paul Pautler and Ed Rastatter for comments on an earlier draft. We also are grateful to Lynn Carpenter, Karen Condor, Effie Georges, Dolly Howarth, Andrew Kim, Georges Pascoe, and Carolyn Samuels for their research and programming assistance.     

On the distributional properties of household consumption expenditures: the case of Italy

In this paper we explore the statistical properties of the distributions of consumption expenditures for a large sample of Italian households in the period 1989–2004. Goodness-of-fit tests show that household aggregate (and age-conditioned) consumption distributions are not log-normal. Rather, their logs can be invariably characterized by asymmetric exponential-power densities. Departures from log-normality are mainly due to the presence of thick lower tails coexisting with upper tails thinner than Gaussian ones. The emergence of this irreducible heterogeneity in statistical patterns casts some doubts on the attempts to explain log-normality of household consumption patterns by means of simple models based on Gibrat’s Law applied to permanent income and marginal utility.     

An empirical investigation of monetary effects on private consumption expenditures in Austria

This paper presents an econometric investigation of monetary effects on private consumption expenditures in Austria. It tries to add the empirical aspect to the theoretical problem of the relationship between monetary and real sector of an economy.Patinkins theory of the real balance effect provides the link between theoretical and empirical aspects. Taking into consideration further assumptions on aggregation, dynamics and problems of definition of variables, consumption functions of different aggregation levels are specified. Including effects of interest rates and credits one arrives at a first assessment of monetary effects on private consumption expenditures as found from single equation estimates. Significant credit and wealth effects are obtained. Later, systems of equations are estimated and used to investigate real—monetary sector interaction. They allow also a dynamic analysis.In presenting the sequence of microeconomic foundations, further assumptions and macroeconomic functions and systems built upon, it is thought to clarify the connection to traditional theory of real—monetary sectors relationship. It might also give an idea about the resulting problems for meaningful empirical research in this area.

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Zusammenfassung Diese Arbeit beschäftigt sich mit der ökonometrischen Untersuchung monetärer Effekte auf private Konsumausgaben in Österreich. Es wird damit versucht, dem theoretischen Problem der Beziehungen zwischen monetärem und realem Sektor der Wirtschaft einen empirischen Aspekt, der die österreichischen Verhältnisse betrifft, zur Seite zu stellen. Das Bindeglied zwischen Theorie und Empirie stelltPatinkins Theorie des Realkasseneffektes dar, die unter Zuhilfenahme weiterer Annahmen über Aggregation, Definitionen und Dynamik zur Spezifikation von aggregierten und disaggregierten Konsumfunktionen führt. Ergänzt durch Zins- und Krediteffekte läßt sich an Hand von Einzelgleichungen eine erste Einschätzung monetärer Wirkungen auf den privaten Konsum und seine Komponenten durchführen. Es können signifikante Kredit- und Vermögenseffekte festgestellt werden. In diesem Zusammenhang wird auch die Hypothese überprüft, ob die Grenzneigungen zum Konsum aus dem verfügbaren Realeinkommen und aus dem Realfinanzvermögen gleich sind, wie dies durch die Annahme eines kurzfristigen Planungshorizontes impliziert wird.Um die Interaktion von realem und monetärem Sektor zu analysieren, wird ein Gleichungs-system formuliert und geschätzt. Daraus lassen sich Unterschiede zu Einzelgleichungsergebnissen aufzeigen. Mittels alternativer Spezifikation der Konsumgleichungen und der Gleichung des monetären Sektors können Vermögens-, Kredit- und Zinseffekte auch im dynamischen Zusammenhang untersucht werden.Die Aufeinanderfolge von mikroökonomischen Grundlagen, weiterer Annahmen, makroökonomischen Funktionen und schließlich Systemen, soll den Zusammenhang zur traditionellen Theorie der Beziehungen zwischen Geld- und Realsektor verdeutlichen und auf die daraus entstehenden Probleme für eine adäquate empirische Untersuchung hinweisen.

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A preliminary version of this paper was presented at the Winter Meeting of the Econometric Society at Sindelfingen (January 9–11, 1978). It constitutes a condensed version of a project on Money and Private Consumption conducted at the Institute of Econometrics, TU—Vienna, under Prof.G. Tintner. The author is indebted to Prof. Tintner for helpful comments and to Dipl. Ing.R. Rieder for assisting in the computations and providing computer programs. The project was supported financially by the Jubiläusmfonds of the Austrian National Bank.     

The effects of local government investment on economic growth and employment: evidence from transitional China

Based on the panel data of 28 provinces in the year of 1987-2001,this paper examines the effects of the local government investment on economic growth and employment.The empirical result shows that the local government investment plays a significant positive role in economic growth and emplovment.However,while the proportion of local government investment to GDP had a remarkable rise after 1998.the elasticity of local government investment on economic growth declined,which shows that there is a hig room for raising the efficiency of local government mvestment.Moreover,the empirical examination shows that although local government investment had positive effect on employment,the elasticity had a decrease after 1994 when the tax-sharing system reform was put into practice.This shows that the positive role of local government investment on emplovment is also limited.This paper argues that the role of local governments as investors must be weakened,and local governments of different levels should lessen direct economic intervention and concentrate on public regulation.     

COBRA for state and local governmental plans

This article summarizes the statutory requirements for COBRA continuation coverage under the Public Health Service Act (PHSA) and notes where those requirements differ from those under the Employee Retirement Income Security Act (ERISA) and the Internal Revenue Code, and then examines two important areas that distinguish private and public sector COBRA--enforcement and regulatory guidance.     

The determinants of pharmaceutical research and development expenditures

Since the late 1970s, pharmaceutical R&D has grown at a rapid rate relative to sales and other variables. In this paper, we examine the determinants of pharmaceutical R&D using a pooled data sample of 11 major drug firms over the period 1974 to 1994. We find that expected returns and cash flows are important explanatory variables of firm research intensities during this period. This is consistent with our results for an earlier sample period characterized by very different growth patterns on R&D.     

The effects of patent-law changes on innovation: The case of India's pharmaceutical industry

Recent patent-law changes in India's pharmaceutical industry provide opportunities to study changes of institutional and regulatory environments on innovation and social welfare in low-income markets. From 1972 to 2004 under its process-patent regime, India's pharmaceutical industry grew to become the world's fourth largest. Indian companies were becoming globally competitive in generics and clinical testing, and moving into product R&D. Researchers have debated the effects of India's new product-patent laws' effects on these trends. The authors cover the domestic characteristics and global competitiveness of India's pharmaceutical industry. They contrast data (from 2001 to 2004) on patents in India's process-patent regime with preliminary data (from 2005 to 2008) on patents in the country's new product-patent regime. They argue that Indian pharmaceutical companies have changed their decision-making in response to changed patent laws by moving from process to product research. However, the preliminary results indicate that these changes may have hurt domestic innovation. They conclude with strategic implications for the Indian pharmaceutical industry and highlight the need for research and public policy to establish optimal social returns from product-patent regimes.     

The effects of economic conditions and tax structures on state tax revenue flow

Tax portfolio literature has focused on deriving the optimal composition of the tax structure for a particular state. However, tax revenue flow is influenced by both tax structure and economic conditions which are unique for each state. Therefore, the literature has been unable to generalize the characteristics of optimal tax structures. This paper examines the contribution of a state's economic condition, as well as the tax structure, to the growth and variability of tax revenue flow. In addition, the optimal tax portfolio is studied for changes in revenue growth targets and economic conditions.     

The unbalanced growth hypothesis and the role of the state: The case of China's state-owned enterprises

Albert Hirschman's unbalanced growth hypothesis suggests that a developing economy can promote economic growth by initially investing in industries with high backward and forward linkages. In the case of Chinese economic policy today, one application would be the continued presence of the state in high-linkage sectors and the strategic withdrawal of the state from low-linkage sectors. The evidence shows that while the degree of linkage plays an important role in generating economic growth in China, province-specific withdrawal strategies for the state sector have no effect on economic growth.     

The effects and policy implications of state aids to industry: an economic analysis

The use of state aids to industry is a poorly understood part of competition policy. Currently, the EU Commission presumes that state aids distort competition, yet it approves 98% of applications, often for social or distributional reasons. We argue that proper regulation of state aids should focus on two issues, the externalities generated and the inefficiencies arising from failures in competition between governments. We thus develop a new framework for EU policy and compare its implications with the existing practice of the EU Commission.     

The psychological effects of academic labeling: The case of class tracks

This paper studies the psychological effects of academic labeling. Exploiting the class tracking policy in a Chinese university, we identify the psychological impacts of the academic labels associated with class tracks on the students via a regression discontinuity design in the track assignment rule. We establish causal evidence of positive effects of a better academic label on the academic self-concept and self-expectation of students as well as their academic interest. Our setup ensures that the identified effects of the labels are through the mechanism of student responses, not teachers and schools, suggesting that previous literature focusing on the mechanism of teachers and schools may have neglected an important channel through which academic labels may impact students.