Oil supply and economic development strategy: A dynamic planning approach

Most oligopolistic models of the oil market begin with the assumption of rising supply curves for oil. Lack of convincing evidence that high oil prices are being maintained by oligopolistic action has raised the possibility of competitive behavior in the oil market and therefore of a backward bending supply curve. This paper presents numerical solutions of a linear dynamic planning model of an oil exporting country with a development strategy which consists of utilizing oil revenues for building an export sector to replace oil. To make a stronger case a high absorber, Algeria, is used as an example. The numerical results are consistent with the hypothesis that there may well be good economic reasons to restrict supply of oil in response to increased prices. Three important characteristics of the model which produce this result are (a) diminishing marginal utility of consumption, (b) absorptive capacity, and (c) imperfect capital markets. A ‘perverse’ supply behavior is found consistent with optimal allocation of oil resources when a price increase is expected to last for a long time. The effects of temporary price changes which can, for example, result from temporary supply shocks or demand changes during the business cycle are also studied. It is shown that in response to such short term price changes competitive behavior is ‘normal’, i.e., supply varies in the same direction as the price. This implies that reductions in OPEC production which have taken place during the recent market downturns cannot be taken as evidence of cartel coordination, as they usually are, since they are also consistent with price-taking behavior.     

美元、石油和金属价格——基于VAR模型的实证研究

近年来,美元贬值以及石油价格上涨一直被认为是造成有色金属价格上涨的两个可能的原因。在这一背景下,笔者采用VAR模型分析了美元价值和石油价格变化对我国铜、黄金、白银等金属价格的冲击影响,以及在此冲击下三种金属价格间的相互影响关系。结果表明:美元价值以及黄金和白银二者之间的相互影响关系在很大程度上决定了我国黄金和白银的价格行为;而美元、石油、黄金以及白银价格的变化对于我国铜金属价格的冲击尽管是显著的,但是四者均不是铜金属价格上涨的主要原因。     

Oil price effects over individual Portuguese stock returns

During the last decades, the world energy dependence increased significantly. Understanding how companies depend on oil prices is essential, especially for countries highly dependent or importers. The work intends to investigate the relationship between oil price changes and Portuguese listed companies’ returns. Using the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model, we conclude that nearly 20 % of the companies are significantly affected by oil prices, finding also evidence that these effects are asymmetric, depending on the company’s current situation in the market (result attributed to the lack of liquidity and the small number of firms included within the sample). There exists some differences among economic sectors in the way they are impacted by oil price changes, although not so much significant. The results show that the bigger the company, the higher the probability of being significantly affected by oil price changes. Results suggest that lagged oil price positive shocks increase Portuguese companies’ returns, by opposition to the current oil price change. Findings highlight the key role played by aggregate demand-side oil price shocks over the financial economic activity, showing sector and individual companies’ differences, thus inducing the possibility of results being highly dependent over the economic context faced by the country under analysis, that firms are more sensitive to oil prices when the equity market is busiest and that oil price increases affect companies returns in a negative way, but price decreases cause more positive than negative effects over company returns.     

油价冲击、货币政策调整与产出波动——基于中国的经验证据

本文基于我国2001-2010年宏观经济月度数据,采用SVAR模型分析了国际油价波动时,央行货币政策在排除回应油价干扰与未排除干扰下的反应差异及油价波动对产出的影响。研究发现,在排除货币政策回应油价波动干扰后,通过脉冲响应函数反映的油价波动对产出的短期负面影响消失。方差分解结果显示,长期内产出波动由油价冲击和货币政策解释的比例分别为5716%和32480%,比排除干扰前分别下降了2569%和4560%。这说明我国油价冲击带来的经济衰退主要是因为货币政策及其回应油价冲击紧缩所致。此外,面对油价的短期冲击,CPI指数并未随着生产者购进价格指数上升而上升,产出也未发生明显的衰减;但在较长时间内,油价上升会因为相对价格的改变,而影响CPI水平和货币政策,从而对产出产生显著的负面影响。     

Inflation,oil price volatility and monetary policy

In a fully micro-founded New Keynesian framework, we characterize an analytical relationship between average inflation and oil price volatility by solving the rational expectations equilibrium of the model up to second order of accuracy. The model shows that higher oil price volatility induces higher levels of average inflation. We also show that when oil has low substitutability in the production function, the higher the weight the central bank assigns to inflation in the policy rule, the lower the level of average inflation is. The analytical solution further indicates that, for a given level of oil price volatility, average inflation is higher when marginal costs are convex in oil prices, the Phillips Curve is convex, and the degree of relative price dispersion is higher. The evolution of inflation during the 70s and 80s is consistent with the prediction of the model.     

基于ARIMA与GARCH模型的国际油价预测比较分析

在分析影响油价波动因素的基础上,利用1986年1月至2010年12月的WTI国际原油价格月度数据,分别建立ARIMA和GARCH模型对油价进行预测。并通过对2011年1月至2012年4月WTI原油价格进行外推预测,检验模型的预测效果。比较分析发现,在短期预测中,ARIMA和GARCH模型对油价的预测均比较准确,但当油价由于受到重大事件的影响而有较大波动时,模型的预测精度下降;在长期预测中,GARCH模型的预测效果优于ARIMA模型;整体来看,GARCH模型预测的精度高于ARIMA模型。因此,在国际油价预测中,用GARCH模型是比较合适的。     

国际油价波动对经济增长的影响——基于中国的实证分析

基于1990年1月至2009年3月的月度数据,本文实证分析了我国经济增长与国际石油价格之间的长期变动关系,其特点在于,采用稳健性较强的T-Y因果检验来分析油价与经济增长的Granger因果关系,同时,运用非对称协整技术以考察油价与经济增长之间的非线性关系。研究发现：①长期中油价是我国经济增长的单向Granger原因;②油价与我国经济增长之间存在非对称协整关系,油价上涨对经济活动的负面影响大于油价下跌的积极影响。基于中国经济运行的实际,本文还分析了实证结果背后的原因,并提出当前国际金融危机背景下,油价呈下跌趋势,需抓住有利时机,动用外汇储备,大力购入石油资源,建立起石油战略储备;在经济复苏、油价上涨时,可以启动石油战略储备来减少石油供应冲击,从而有助于及时保证我国经济平稳快速增长的政策建议。     

谈中国石油进口定价权缺失及对策建议

随着中国经济的迅速发展,石油进口量不断攀升,而中国在国际石油市场上微乎其微的价格话语权与自身石油大买家的地位极不相称。石油进口不可避免地面临着国际石油市场价格动荡局面下的价格风险以及相对进口价格较高的被动局面。什么原因导致了中国石油进口价格的困境,如何解决这一问题成为中国石油进口面临的一个重要课题。针对国内石油市场现状,从石油进口成本出发,分析了中国石油进口定价权缺失的原因,并探讨了相应对策。     

Impact of oil price changes on Turkey’s exports

Substantial decline in oil prices observed since the second half of 2014 has brought forward discussions on the impact of oil prices on the external balance. This decline is expected to shift real income from oil exporter countries to oil importer countries. In this context, we study the effect of change in oil prices on Turkey’s exports taking into account the fact that Turkey’s export to oil exporting countries has approximately one-third share in total exports, while export to oil importing countries has a share of two-thirds. At the first step, we analyse the effect of oil prices on economic growth of trade partners of Turkey, where countries are grouped according to their net oil export position. We find that the effect of oil prices on different country groups’ growth is asymmetric. In the second stage, for two groups of countries, we estimate growth-export elasticity through Turkey’s export demand function. Finally, we calculate the net effect of oil prices on exports considering different income effects caused by oil price change on each country groups. Results indicate that the net effect of oil prices on the exports is limited given the current export shares.     

化石能源价格变化影响分析——基于投入产出价格模型

利用《中国2007年投入产出表》中的数据,运用投入产出价格模型测算我国两个化石能源部门(煤炭开采和洗选业以及石油和天然气开采业)的产品价格分别单独以及同时上涨10%这3种情境下其他产业部门产品价格的变化幅度,在此基础上分析了化石能源价格上涨对其他产业部门产品价格的影响。结果显示:煤炭价格依然是对我国各部门产品价格影响最广的因素;而石油和天然气价格对其他部门产品价格的影响主要集中于个别部门。最后给出相应的政策建议。     

基于可计算一般均衡模型的能源价格变动对新疆经济的影响

基于通用可计算一般均衡(CGE)平台,探讨了能源价格变动对新疆地区宏观经济的影响。模拟结果显示:(1)煤炭价格和天然气价格分别上涨10%以后,新疆地区的GDP、各部门的产出和居民消费变动不大,说明提高煤炭和天然气价格不会对新疆经济造成大的波动,未来新疆地区能源价格改革应从煤炭和天然气入手。(2)油价上涨10%后,新疆地区部门产出和居民消费变化较大,因此未来新疆地区在提高油价时应考虑社会稳定,避免产生大的经济波动。值得注意的是提高油价后,城乡收入差距缩小。总体来说提高油价所产生的影响是积极的。     

Rockets and feathers behaviour in the Spanish gasoline and diesel market: New evidence

In this paper we analyse the potential asymmetric response of retail prices for gasoline and diesel‐fuel to changes in oil prices for the Spanish economy and its relation with the so‐called ‘rockets and feathers’ behaviour. We show that the assumption made by previous studies, which use as the key explanatory variable the sign –positive or negative‐ of the change in international oil prices, is inadequate for the Spanish case and the magnitude of the change in international oil prices is also relevant. For small changes in international oil prices there is neither price asymmetry nor rockets and feathers behavior in the retail markets. However, price asymmetries in line with rockets and feathers behavior in retail gasoline and gasoil markets are present when these changes exceed a certain threshold. Following Martín‐Moreno et al. (2018) we first apply an Auto‐regressive Error Correction Model and endogenously estimate the threshold triggering the rockets and feathers behaviour. A time‐varying nature for the dynamic response of retail prices to oil price shocks is revealed when we estimate the TAR‐ECM model using rolling windows. Hence, in a second stage, we use a Markov‐switching estimation of the model to test the robustness of the results given its suitability to changing environments. This study could have relevant policy implications for the Spanish gasoline and gasoil retail markets due to the ongoing debate on the existence of a rockets and feathers behavior in gasoline and gasoil retail markets between the Spanish regulatory body and the oil companies.     

An asymmetric analysis of the relationship between oil prices and output: The case of Turkey

In this paper we analyze the asymmetric impact of oil price changes on the economic activity in Turkey. In contrast to previous studies on Turkey, the existence of an asymmetric relationship between economic activity and oil prices is investigated by regime-dependent impulse response functions and forecast error variance decompositions based on a multivariate two-regime Threshold VAR (TVAR) model. Our analysis suggests that the relationship between oil prices and macroeconomic activity is nonlinear and exhibits an asymmetric pattern: oil price changes have a significant effect on inflation and output when the change exceeds a certain threshold level. The lower response of macroeconomic variables to oil price shocks in the low oil price change regime also indicates that only the shocks exceeding the optimal threshold level are able to create a contraction in the economic activity.     

Revisiting the oil price and stock market nexus: A nonlinear Panel ARDL approach

In this paper, we re-examine the relationship between oil price and stock prices in oil exporting and oil importing countries in the following distinct ways. First, we account for possible nonlinearities in the relationship in order to quantify the asymmetric response of stock prices of these two categories to positive and negative oil price changes. Secondly, in order to capture within group differences, we allow for heterogeneity effect in the cross-sections by formulating a nonlinear Panel ARDL model which is the panel data representation of the Shin et al. (2014) model and also analogous to the non-stationary heterogenous panel data model. Thirdly, we evaluate the relative predictability of the linear (symmetric) and nonlinear (asymmetric) Panel ARDL models using the Campbell and Thompson (2008) test. Our results depict that stock prices of both oil exporting and oil importing groups respond asymmetrically to changes in oil price although the response is stronger in the latter than the former. This finding is further corroborated by the out-of-sample forecast results suggesting that the inclusion of positive and negative oil price changes in the predictive model for stock prices will produce better forecast results only for the oil importing countries. Our results are robust to different oil price proxies, lag structure and in-sample periods. Overall, the dichotomy between oil exporting and oil importing countries has implications on oil price-stock nexus.     

A股市场上的“中石油魔咒”现象及其解释

文章针对A股市场上流传甚广的"中石油魔咒"现象,首次从基本面角度进行了解释,认为造成这一现象的根本原因是国际原油价格对我国股票市场存在显著的负向溢出效应,即当国际原油价格上涨时,对中石油个股产生利好,但对整体宏观经济却构成利空,因而中石油股票价格上涨,整个股票市场却会下跌。进一步研究还发现,这种负向溢出效应具有非线性特征,表现为国际原油价格上涨对股票市场的打压力度要大于其下跌对股票市场的提升力度。这提醒A股投资者相对于国际原油价格下跌,要更加关注国际原油价格上涨带来的投资风险。     

Interpreting the movement of oil prices: Driven by fundamentals or bubbles?

Based on the historical data of crude oil, diesel and gasoline markets during November 2001–December 2015, this paper employs the state-space model and log-periodic power law (LPPL) model to explore the dynamic bubbles of oil prices and predict their crash time. The results indicate that, first, oil price bubbles only exist during November 2001–July 2008, and crude oil and diesel prices are significantly driven by bubbles, whereas gasoline prices are mainly driven by fundamentals. Second, the state-space model captures the time-varying bubbles of crude oil and diesel prices. Finally, the LPPL model well predicts the crash time of bubbles.     

OIL PRICE SHOCKS AND STOCK MARKET BOOMS IN AN OIL EXPORTING COUNTRY

This paper analyses the effects of oil price shocks on stock returns in Norway, an oil-exporting country, highlighting the transmission channels of oil prices for macroeconomic behaviour. To capture the interaction between the different variables, stock returns are incorporated into a structural VAR model. I find that following a 10% increase in oil prices, stock returns increase by 2.5%, after which the effect gradually dies out. The results are robust to different (linear and non-linear) transformations of oil prices. The effects on the other variables are more modest. However, all variables indicate that the Norwegian economy responds to higher oil prices by increasing aggregate wealth and demand. The results also emphasize the role of other shocks; monetary policy shocks in particular, as important driving forces behind stock price variability in the short term.     

Can oil prices help predict US stock market returns? Evidence using a dynamic model averaging (DMA) approach

Crude oil price behaviour has fluctuated wildly since 1973 which has a major impact on key macroeconomic variables. Although the relationship between stock market returns and oil price changes has been scrutinized excessively in the literature, the possibility of predicting future stock market returns using oil prices has attracted less attention. This paper investigates the ability of oil prices to predict S&P 500 price index returns with the use of other macroeconomic and financial variables. Including all the potential variables in a forecasting model may result in an over-fitted model. So instead, dynamic model averaging (DMA) and dynamic model selection (DMS) are applied to utilize their ability of allowing the best forecasting model to change over time while parameters are also allowed to change. The empirical evidence shows that applying the DMA/DMS approach leads to significant improvements in forecasting performance in comparison to other forecasting methodologies and the performance of these models are better when oil prices are included within predictors.     

基于空间计量的房地产价格影响因素分析

现有文献大都认为各个地区的房地产价格是相互独立的,而事实上,空间依赖的存在会使得回归结果是有偏的。本文首先利用全局空间自相关指标(Moran’s I统计量)和局部空间自相关指标(LISA指标)检验我国房价的空间自相关,结果显示我国房价存在空间自相关。然后利用1999-2009年的省际面板数据,运用广义空间面板数据模型分析全国范围以及东、中、西部分区域房价,结果表明,在考虑了房价的空间相关性后,我国各区域房价的影响因素已不尽相同,东部地区房价基本完全由空间因素决定,西部地区房价由供给和需求等因素决定,而全国范围及中部地区房价受两者的共同影响,利率和汇率的变化对我国房价无显著影响。     

Energy dependence,oil prices and exchange rates: the Dominican economy since 1990

This paper studies the impact that oil prices have had on the floating exchange rate (ER) of the Dominican peso during the 1990–2008 period. The existing empirical literature has documented a link between these two variables for large developed economies and oil-producing countries, always including the 1970s oil crises in their sample periods. Few authors analyze the case of small open economies dependent on oil imports. Since the acceleration of economic growth in the Dominican Republic during the last decade has greatly increased its degree of external energy dependence, this country’s experience presents an ideal case study. We estimate the influence that changes in international gasoline prices have on the real exchange rate between the Dominican peso and the United States dollar. The cointegrated nature of the gasoline price and ER time series are tested and a vector error correction model is developed. Our results indicate that a 10% rise in the price of gas coincides with a 1.2% depreciation of the peso in the long run and that the causality runs from gas prices to the peso.