Financial Constraints and Investment Decisions

In what follows we show that liquidity constraints can affect a firm's investment even when the constraints are not currently effective. This happens when, at any given time, the firm believes that internal finance is likely to become a constraint in the future. In these circumstances, the value of the firm becomes a non‐monotonic functional form of the fundamental. Thus, in a dynamic setting, the potential barrier to internal liquidity expansion exerts a global effect on the firm's investment policy, lowering its desired investment profile (Classification JEL: E22, E51 ).     

论衍生金融工具与实体经济的关系

本文对衍生金融工具及实体经济之间相互联系、相互作用的机理进行剖析；从微观层面和宏观层面研究衍生金融工具对实体经济可能造成的冲击以及相应的防范策略。作者试图从衍生金融工具与实体经济的相互关系出发，探寻我国衍生金融工具及市场的发展及如何促进实体经济的发展等问题。     

Taxation and Investment Decisions: A Real Options Approach

The purpose of the paper is to analyse the impact of the tax system on the firm's incentives to invest and disinvest in an uncertain environment. This paper follows the real options approach, which allows us to investigate the value to a firm of waiting to invest and/or disinvest, when payoffs are stochastic and investments partially reversible. The implications for the magnitude and directions of the effects of tax policy are studied; also the case of tax policy uncertainty is examined.     

房地产金融风险与我国个人信用制度的建设

从房地产金融风险可以看出我国个人信用制度建设的必要性和紧迫性,本文分析了我国个人信用制度建设的现状和问题,并提出了有效的政策建议,如加强个人信用制度的外部文化环境建设、设立国家信用局、提高网络的覆盖水平、完善相关的法律制度等。     

房地产及其金融衍生品的虚拟价值研究

房地产是人们广为认可的财富标志,其虚拟价值具有三个属性:趋于形式化、具有寻租变现能力和保值增值能力.本文概述了房地产、房地产金融衍生品MBS、以MBS为参考组合经层层打包得到的复杂金融衍生品作为财富标志的发展和演化过程,分析MBS和CDO的结构特征和虚拟价值,得到房地产和房地产金融衍生品的虚拟价值具有“边际永不存在和边...     

金融发展与人民币实际汇率

尽管金融发展对一国经济有诸多有利之处,但文章认为它也可能通过影响物价、全要素生产率等引起货币实际升值.检验结果表明,我国银行对私人部门的信贷和股票市场的发展均可引起人民币实际升值,且主要是通过对物价的直接影响实现的,而通过巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应仅产生有限的影响,人民币名义汇率则不是金融发展影响人民币实际汇率的主要渠道.因此,金融发展带给经济的可能并不全是福音,应充分认识金融发展通过人民币实际升值而可能产生的不利影响.     

Financial Development and Real Price Level Differences

Real price levels are systematically lower in developing countries than in developed countries. This paper provides time series evidence about the effect of financial development on real price level differences for 40 developing countries. Based on cointegration tests, a long-run equilibrium relationship is found between financial development and real price level differences in 21 countries. In seven countries, financial development "Granger-causes" real price level differentials, while for 19 countries the causality runs in the opposite direction. Country-specific institutional or political-economy differences, typically ignored in cross-section analysis, likely play an important role in real price level differences.     

Real and Financial Integration in East Asia

This paper examines the real and financial integration of East Asian economies, by comparing the degree of real vs financial and global vs regional integration, before vs after the Asian crisis. First, price and quantity measures such as the size of intra‐ and inter‐regional trade, cross‐border financial assets, stock return correlation, and interest rate differentials are investigated. Second, the structural panel vector autoregression (VAR) model is constructed to analyze macroeconomic consequences of real and financial integration such as cross‐country output and consumption relation. The results suggest that (i) the degree of real integration significantly increased after the crisis, both regionally and globally; (iii) quantity and price measures showed an increased financial integration after the crisis, but the consumption relation did not; (iv) the degree of regional financial integration is smaller than that of global financial integration, based on the consumption relation; and (v) financial integration lags real integration, especially for regional integration.     

Financial Premium and Real Exchange Rate Misalignment

The literature overwhelmingly believes that the size of a financial premium could be an indicator of the extent of the real exchange rate misalignment under dual exchange rates. We wish to oppose this view. The strategy in this paper is to investigate the effects that monetary and real shocks from domestic or foreign origin have on these variables. We also extend the analysis of the theoretical model by discussing numerical simulations. Both theoretical and numerical examinations together show that such a relationship does not exist. Moreover, we find that the more volatile the financial premium, the more stable the real exchange rate. Received December 17, 2001; revised version received May 15, 2002 Published online: December 5, 2002     

实物期权方法在矿产资源项目投资决策中的应用

对NPV方法进行了改进,使其可以在一定程度上克服传统NPV的某些局限性。在此基础上,将其与实物期权联系起来,构建了考虑管理柔性的矿业投资项目总体价值模型,并运用延迟期权实例验证了模型的有效性。     

Optimal Decisions on Pension Plans in the Presence of Information Costs and Financial Literacy

Pension reforms are on the political agenda of many countries. Such reforms imply an increasing responsibility on individuals’ side in building an efficient portfolio for retirement. In this paper, we provide a model describing workers’ choices on the allocation of retirement savings in presence of (1) mandatory pension contribution; (2) different pension plans; and (3) information costs and financial literacy investment decisions. In particular, we characterize the results from both a positive and normative standpoint, by highlighting the determinants of individuals’ choice, with special focus on information costs, on the role of income and preferences, and by characterizing the optimal contribution rate to mandatory complementary pension plans. We also introduce endogenous financial literacy and analyze how its optimal level is determined and how it affects the decisions on pension plans.     

"互联网+"下的包容性金融与家庭创业决策

文章利用中国家庭跟踪调查(CFPS)2014年度数据,采用离散选择模型和两阶段最小二乘方法,从广度和深度两个方面研究了"互联网+"下包容性金融对家庭创业决策的影响.结果表明:"互联网+"与包容性金融的融合发展将通过"信息流"融通"资金流",降低家庭创业融资中的风险,增加其正规金融市场参与度,从而提升一般家庭的创业可能性,特别是对城市家庭、高收入家庭和受教育程度高的家庭的创业决策具有明显的促进作用;此外,"互联网+"与包容性金融的融合发展还将使家庭更积极地投身于机会型创业活动中.文章进一步检验了"互联网+"下包容性金融影响家庭创业决策的正规金融融资偏好渠道和风险偏好渠道的有效性,这对于在当下的"双创"工作中改善创业者的金融支持环境具有重要的意义.     

Separability and public finance

In a second best environment, the optimal policy choice sometimes follows first best rules. This paper presents a formal general argument which allows to unify much of the literature. It lays down the information structure and separability assumptions under which the results hold in a variety of setups, with extensions to preference heterogeneity and individual production sets.     

中国财政支出资本化与房地产价格

本文利用我国30个省市自治区1999-2008年问的面板数据研究了财政支出资本化问题,重点分析了商品房平均销售价格与财政支出水平之间的变动关系.实证结果表明,我国的地方财政支出与房地产价格呈正相关关系,地方财政支出对房价有明显的促进作用.各个地区持续高水平的财政支出,经过一段时间的积幕后,会通过房地产价值的增加体现出来.在实证结果的基础上,提出我国应加快房地产税收制度的改革,征收财产税的建议.     

灰色预测理论在房地产投资决策中的应用

预测是房地产投资决策的重要工作之一。文章在分析GM(1,1)模型和灰色马尔可夫预测模型两种灰色预测模型的基础上,结合实例对房地产价格和开发量进行预测,并取得了比较理想的结果。旨在提高房地产投资决策的科学性。     

金融风险与金融危机

本文认为, 目前我国的金融风险处于风险积累到风险加剧的过程中, 通过有效防范金融风险是可以避免金融危机发生的。全文对一些国家金融危机发生的原因进行了深入分析, 并提出了我国防范金融风险、避免金融危机的对策。     

Partially Irreversible Investment Decisions and Taxation under Uncertainty: A Real Option Approach

The paper applies contingent claims analysis in a real option investment model in order to investigate taxation's influence on investor's decisions under uncertainty. The results show the distortion from realistic-type tax systems, allow to identify a tax-induced paradox in option valuation for specific settings and acknowledge the property of investment neutrality of well-known 'ideal' tax systems in the context of different degrees of irreversibility. Furthermore, it is clarified that the idea of risk-neutral valuation cannot be adopted by the real option approach in general.     

房地产市场金融风险分析

文章从房地产泡沫的定义出发,从土地供给弹性、地产投资结构两个主要方面分析了近期北京市房地产市场金融风险的来源,又从地方政府、商业银行、地产开发商以及购买者相互博弈过程对地产泡沫的膨胀机制进行了深入分析;最后给出了衡量地产泡沫风险的基本研究范式,数据计算证实近期北京地产市场上不存在明显泡沫风险。     

Monetary Policy, Corporate Financial Composition and Real Activity

This article addresses two fundamental questions about monetarypolicy, credit conditions and corporate activity. First, canwe relate differences in the composition of debt between tightand loose periods of monetary policy to firm characteristicslike size, age, indebtedness or risk? Second, do differencesin companies’ financial compositions matter for real activityof firms such as inventory and employment growth? The articleoffers some evidence from firms in the UK manufacturing sectorwhich suggests that the composition of debt differs considerablywith characteristics such as size, age, debt and risk, it alsoshows a significant effect from financial composition and cashflow to inventory and employment growth. (JEL codes: E32, E44,E51)     

直面客观真实的金融史 推动金融业科学发展

本文通过对中国与世界金融史的回顾与分析,着重论述了五个问题:史料翔实,立论允足的金融史,有利于认识金融的真实世界;真实史料有助于对货币运动和对本国金融业现状的正确认识;历史上中国人的金融智慧值得汲取;通过真实史料更能看清在民国时期政治与金融政策上的严重问题;从真实的金融史角度看经济发展道路,金融业应充分发挥自身功能,担当社会责任。