Informal Insurance Arrangements with Limited Commitment: Theory and Evidence from Village Economies

Recent work on consumption allocations in village economies finds that idiosyncratic variation in consumption is systematically related to idiosyncratic variation in income, thus rejecting the hypothesis of full risk-pooling. We attempt to explain these observations by adding limited commitment as an impediment to risk-pooling. We provide a general dynamic model and completely characterise efficient informal insurance arrangements constrained by limited commitment, and test the model using data from three Indian villages. We find that the model can fully explain the dynamic response of consumption to income, but that it fails to explain the distribution of consumption across households.     

Economic and Welfare Impacts of Climate Change on Developing Countries

The impact of global climate change on developing countries is analyzed using CGE-multimarket models for three archetype economies representing the poor cereal importing nations of Africa, Asia, and Latin America. The objective is to compare the effects of climate change on the macroeconomic performance, sectoral resource allocation, and household welfare across continents. Simulations help identify those underlying structural features of economies which are the primary determinants of differential impacts; these are suggestive of policy instruments to countervail undesirable effects. Results show that all these countries will potentially suffer income and production losses. However, Africa, with its low substitution possibilities between imported and domestic foods, fares worst in terms of income losses and the drop in consumption of low income households. Countervailing policies to mitigate negative effects should focus on integration in the international market and the production of food crops in Africa, and on the production of export crops in Latin America and Asia.     

Asset price fluctuations without aggregate shocks

We analyze the pricing of a productive asset in a class of dynamic exchange economies with heterogeneous, infinitely-lived agents, and self-enforcing intertemporal trades. Individual incomes fluctuate and are correlated; preferences, dividends and aggregate income are fixed. Almost all economies in this class have a unique stationary Markovian equilibrium with fluctuations in asset prices. As the set of unrationed households changes over time and states, excess demand functions shift, asset returns fluctuate, and some households are shut out of asset markets. Examples suggest that the amplitude of these movements is negatively correlated with the productivity of the asset and with the penalty for default.     

Observable restrictions of general equilibrium models with financial markets

This paper examines whether general equilibrium models of exchange economies with incomplete financial markets impose restrictions on prices of commodities and assets given the stochastic processes of dividends and aggregate endowments. We show that the assumption of time-separable expected utility implies restriction on the cross-section of asset prices as well as on spot commodity prices. However, a relaxation of the assumption of time separability will generally destroy these restriction.     

Two-period cycles in a three-period overlapping generations model

We study the properties of two-period monetary cycles in simple pure exchange overlapping generations economies in which the households live for three periods. We demonstrate that these economies can support cycles under a much broader—and, arguably, more plausible—range of assumptions than the analogous two-period economies. We show that economies that fail the well-known Grandmont (Econometrica 53 (1985) 995) condition can have cycles, and that economies that satisfy the condition can fail to have cycles. In addition, we show that economies can have monetary cycles when they do not have conventional monetary steady states, and when aggregate demand for assets is not decreasing in the real return rate at a gross real rate of unity.     

Economies of scale in households' cash balances: A series of empirical tests

Here is tested on a sample of FRench chwque deposits in 1966 the hypothesis of economies of scale in the households cash balances. These economies of scale when compared to those expected from theoretical models (Allais, Baumol) turn out to be relatively small. It is suggested that this slight result is due to the fact that the value of the transactions of the studied accounts differ more because of the average value of the effective operations than because of the number of these operations.     

Relative price shifts,economies of scale and poverty during economic transition1

Economic transition is associated with significant shifts in relative prices between private and public goods. If, as a result, public goods claim a larger share of total expenditures, economies of scale in consumption increase. We show how relative price changes might alter the welfare of different‐sized households in the short run and over time. We illustrate, for a selection of transition economies, that conventional poverty profiles are quite sensitive to assumptions made about economies of scale in consumption. In particular, the common view that large households with many children are poor relative to small households (such as those comprising the elderly) is shown to be highly non‐robust.     

Financial deepening and economic growth

The core of Shapley–Shubik games and general equilibrium models with a Venn diagram is applied for a theory on the role of real finance in economic growth among advanced economies. Then the dynamic computable general equilibrium (DCGE) models for Germany, France, the UK, Japan and the USA are constructed to assess the validity of the over-financing hypothesis that has reappeared after the financial crisis of 2008. Actual financial deepening ratios observed in the nonconsolidated balance sheet of the OECD exceeded by factors of 3.5, 2.4, 5.1, 11.6 and 4.8 than the optimal financial deepening ratios implied by DCGE models, respectively, in these countries because of excessive leveraging and bubbles up to 19 times of GDP which were responsible for this great recession. Containing such massive fluctuations for macroeconomic stability and growth in these economies are not possible in conventional fiscal and monetary policy models and require a DCGE analysis like this along with adoption of separating equilibrium strategy in line of Miller–Stiglitz–Roth mechanisms to avoid problem of asymmetric information in the process of financial intermediation so that the gaps between actual and optimal ratios of financial deepening remain as small as possible.     

ECONOMIES OF SCALE IN HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION: WITH APPLICATION TO AUSTRALIA*

This paper presents a general framework for defining the economies of scale in household consumption. It allows commodity specific economies of scale (taking into account the substitution effects). The chief contribution of the paper is to show how one can estimate economies of scale from cross section budget data without price information. The problem of identification that is inherent in these models is overcome by making use of some assumptions about the nature of goods and services employed in the estimation. The methodology developed in the paper is applied to Australian Household Expenditure Survey for 1984 to calculate item wise and overall economies of scale.     

Domestic technology,consumption economies of scale and poverty: evidence from Sri Lanka

While it is well known that new technologies enhance consumer welfare, the manner in which these technologies impact the ability to realize economies of scale in consumption is not well understood. We use Sri Lankan household data to examine how the adoption of new technologies by households positively impacts their ability to achieve household economies of scale. This suggests that new technologies not only deliver a greater variety of consumption goods to consumers, but they may also play an important role in enabling large households to escape poverty by lowering the per-capita costs of maintaining a given standard of living. Given the importance of consumption economies of scale in the measurement of poverty, this study provides some insights on the extent to which the number of poor households changes when food consumption scale economies due to technology adoption in the domestic sphere are incorporated.     

Modeling growth options and structural change to reach middle income country status: The case of Ghana

This paper develops a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (DCGE) model to evaluate sources of accelerated growth and structural transformation. It goes beyond stylized and aggregate general equilibrium models by examining country-specific growth options to reach middle income country (MIC) status. We first examine a set of countries that have successfully transformed their economies to inform model and scenario building. We then simulate potentials and trade-offs of selected sector- and factor-specific growth paths for Ghana. Results show that no individual sector's growth acceleration is sufficient for Ghana to reach MIC status by 2015. Manufacturing growth is constrained by its high dependency on agricultural inputs indicating the need for diversification. Services can support rather than drive economy-wide growth. Agriculture must remain the mainstay of economy-wide growth. While this will delay structural change in sectoral composition, it demonstrates that emphasizing agriculture is a viable option for some countries to reach MIC status.     

Inequality and Saving: Further Evidence from Integrated Economies

Renewed attention to inequality and saving has arisen owing to their pronounced implications for global imbalances and financial crises. We show that the relationship between saving and inequality is negative if savers' funds are borrowed by spending households for consumption as in the USA, but positive if saving is allocated through financial systems to investing firms for production as in China. This theoretical result is largely consistent with empirical evidence found from these two increasingly integrated economies and other related countries by estimating panel‐data models. The policy implication is that inequality must be reduced in order to increase saving in the USA and other Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development (OECD) countries and to boost consumption in China and other parts of emerging Asia.     

A general equilibrium assessment of climate change–induced loss of agricultural productivity in Nepal

The impact of climate change on agriculture has been one of the most discussed topics in the literature on climate change. Multi-regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) models have frequently been used to examine the impact of climate change on agriculture. However, these studies do not focus on country-specific issues related to the link between climate change and agriculture. This paper aims to address this gap by investigating the economy-wide impacts of climate change on Nepalese agriculture. Nepal makes an interesting case study as it has one of the most vulnerable agricultural economies in South Asia. This paper develops a comparative static multi-household CGE model to trace the direct and indirect impacts of climate change in Nepal. The results suggest that climate change has a significant negative impact on the overall Nepalese economy due to the induced loss of agricultural productivity. The results further reveal that rural households in Nepal, whose livelihoods primarily depend on subsistence farming, will face additional climate change–induced stresses due to already overstrained poverty and a weak social welfare system. The results indicate an urgent need to mainstream adaptation strategies to lessen the negative impacts of any climate change–induced loss of agricultural productivity in Nepal.     

Regularity and Pareto improving on financial equilibria with price-dependent borrowing restrictions

We consider a pure exchange, general equilibrium model, with two periods and a finite number of states, commodities, numeraire assets, and households. Participation in the asset markets is restricted in a household specific manner, imposing upper bounds on the amounts of borrowing which can be obtained using assets. Those bounds are assumed to depend on asset and commodity prices. After establishing existence of equilibria, we show that, generically in the set of the economies, equilibria are finite and regular. Then, we restrict our attention to the significant set of economies in which some associated equilibria exhibit a sufficiently high number of strictly binding participation constraints. We prove that, generically in that set, those equilibria are Pareto improvable through a local change of the participation constraints.     

Specialization,product development,evolution of the institution of the firm,and economic growth

This paper considers the effects of the division of labor on economic growth and welfare in a general equilibrium environment where changes in individual specialization and product development can proceed simultaneously. The nature of the dynamic equilibrium is shown to depend on the interaction of transaction efficiency, economies of specialization, and economies of complementarity. Where the dynamic equilibrium involves evolution in the division of labor, this will be associated with increased per capita real income and hence economic growth. It is also shown that the emergence of firms is an aspect of the evolution of division of labor if transaction efficiency for a producer good is lower than that for labor used to produce this good.     

Why does monetary policy respond to the real exchange rate in small open economies? A Bayesian perspective

To estimate how monetary policy works in small open economies, we build a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model that incorporates the basic features of these economies. We conclude that the monetary policy in a group of small open economies (including Australia, Chile, Colombia, Peru, and New Zealand) is rather similar to that observed in closed economies. Our results also indicate, however, that there are strong differences due to the shocks from the international financial markets (mainly risk premium shocks). These differences explain most of the variability of the real exchange rate, which has important reallocation effects in the short run. Our results are consistent with an old idea from the Mundell–Fleming model: namely, a real depreciation to confront a risk premium shock is expansive or procyclical, in contradiction to the predictions of the balance sheet effect, the J curve effect, and the introduction of working capital into RBC models. In line with this last result, we have strong evidence that only in one of the five countries analyzed in this study does not intervene the real exchange rate, the case of New Zealand.     

Getting By with a Little Help from Your Family: Toward a Policy-Relevant Model of the Household

Recent decades have seen dramatic changes in the ways in which households in developed Western economies gain their livelihoods, with marked elements of a return to old ways of working. There has been a shift from reliance upon one family wage to the need for family employment as well as growing reliance on self-employment and small business. These changes mean that childcare for working parents, and the promotion of new small enterprise, are key areas of policy concern. Drawing on original English empirical research around both these themes, this article shows the ways in which UK households draw on redistribution between the generations as a v - v generally decommodified v - v contribution to livelihoods and "getting by." We argue that these results confound widely utilized models of how people behave, and take particular issue with how economists and policy-makers model the household and its boundaries as the institutional context for individual decisions.     

On modeling task,skill and technology upgrading effects of globalization with heterogeneous labor

We adapt Yeaple's (2005) heterogeneous agent framework to model firms in the North as making explicit offshore outsourcing decisions to cheap-labor economies. We highlight how firms' technology transformations due to globalization will induce skill upgrading in the North, increase aggregate productivity, average wages and therefore total welfare at the cost of increased wage inequalities. We analytically derive conditions under which all consumers – including lower-skilled workers – might nevertheless gain from the surge of offshore outsourcing. We also show that extending the model to the more realistic case of multi-product firms tends to boost the potential welfare gains.