The profitability of moving average trading rules in BRICS and emerging stock markets

Technical analysis and trading systems have been widely used by practitioners in financial markets. Since some academic studies have highlighted that these tools can generate positive alphas when compared with a buy-and-hold strategy, we studied the main stocks of the BRICS and emerging markets. We considered the period from 2000 to 2015 and observed different combinations of moving average strategies and periods. The main results indicate that, for some countries, there is a combination of periods for moving averages producing better outcomes.     

Testing the performance of technical analysis and sentiment-TAR trading rules in the Malaysian stock market

This study carries out investigation of technical analysis and Sentiment-Threshold Autoregressive (Sentiment-TAR) trading rules in the Malaysian stock market, using daily data from Jan 1, 2001 through December 31, 2016. The findings reveal that while the Sentiment-TAR trading rules (more specifically Sentiment^WORLD-TAR) have better predictive power than technical trading rule, the magnitude of predictability is shown to vary with sectors. Robustness of results is further verified by in- and out-of-sample test and bootstrap analysis. As expected, the inclusion of transaction costs eliminates the trading profits for the majority of the trading rules. Nevertheless, results reveal that investors can gain substantially by combining Sentiment-TAR and TRB rules and by investing in certain sectors.     

Age,investing horizon and asset allocation

In contrast to standard financial advice, most empirical evidence suggests that stockholding increases with age. One difficulty in interpreting this is that age may not effectively proxy for investing horizon or that age may be proxying for other effects, such as increases in financial sophistication. Using data from the most recent Survey of Consumer Finances this paper finds that age is not closely related to reported investing horizon and that proxies for investment horizon and financial sophistication are significant for stockholding.     

Non-linear,hybrid exchange rate modeling and trading profitability in the foreign exchange market

A neuro-fuzzy decision-making technology is designed and implemented to obtain the optimal daily currency trading rule. It is found that a non-linear, artificial neural network exchange rate microstructure (hybrid) model combined with a fuzzy logic controller generates a set of trading strategies that earn a higher rate of return compared to the simple buy-and-hold strategy. After accounting for realistic transaction costs, the gains from utilizing a dynamic, neuro-fuzzy model are still present.     

Beyond profitability: effects of acquisitions on technical efficiency in the Italian pasta industry

Unlike traditional studies on the impact of ownership changes—which use either profitability measures or stock prices—this paper investigates the impact of acquisitions on acquired firms' technical efficiency. Using a panel of Italian firms in the pasta industry for the 1981–1997 period, I estimate a stochastic production frontier with exogenous factors affecting efficiency in a translog specification with non‐neutral technical progress. The main result is that acquired firms experience, within the 6 years period following the acquisition, an increase in technical efficiency of the order of 10%. This result is statistically significant and proves to be robust with respect to the inclusion of size and calendar year effects as explanatory variables of firms' inefficiency. These findings contribute to the debate on the welfare gains of ownership changes by providing evidence that mergers and acquisitions lead to cost savings, due to the reduction of acquired firms' X‐inefficiency. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Illusory profitability of technical analysis in emerging foreign exchange markets

We conduct an extensive examination of the profitability of technical analysis in ten emerging foreign exchange markets. Studying 25,988 trading strategies for emerging foreign exchange markets, we find that the best rules can sometimes generate an annual mean excess return of more than 30%. Based on standard tests, we find hundreds to thousands of seemingly significant profitable strategies. However, almost all of these profits vanish once the data snooping bias is taken into account. Overall, we show that the profitability of technical analysis is illusory.     

Market efficiency,trading institutions and information mirages: evidence from a laboratory asset market

Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination - The study at hand investigates the performance of a continuous double auction, and a call market mechanism in an experimental asset market where...     

Weighted scoring rules,the impartial culture condition,and homogeneity

The study considers the significance of weight selection for weighted scoring rules on three alternatives. Most research previously done in this area has been based on the assumption of the impartial culture condition. Intuition suggests that if preferences of individuals in a large group are at all distant or different from the impartial culture condition, then the weights selected for a weighted scoring rule become unimportant. It would seem likely in such a situation that one of the alternatives should be a clear front runner and win under almost any weighted scoring rule. A measure of social homogeneity is used in the study to represent the distance between a given set of individuals' preferences and the impartial culture condition. Based on computer simulation analysis, the results indicate that specific weight selection definitely becomes less important as the level of social homogeneity increases. However, the specific weight selection is still found to be of importance for situations with the greatest homogeneity that represent preferences the farthest distance from the condition of impartial culture.     

Optimal control on an infinite time horizon: The turnpike approach

The optimal control problem with infinite horizon is defined. Under assumptions motivated by the theory of optimal economic growth the controllability of the system, the turnpike property, the asymptotic behavior and the existence of optimal trajectories are fully explored.     

Taxes,time diversification,and asset choice at retirement

This study extends existing research by examining the effect of personal income taxes on the expected relative performance of asset classes as viewed from the retirement date. Results suggest that tax status does not affect the basic conclusions of previous time diversification studies. However, the fund's tax status affects the size of withdrawals that can be sustained, the performance of stocks relative to bonds, and the risk of the retirement fund. In general, for a given size fund and after-tax withdrawal proportion, tax-deferred funds have not only a greater expected return, but also greater risk than non-tax-deferred retirement funds. *** DIRECT SUPPORT *** A00DH017 00009     

An equilibrium model of insider trading in continuous time

We study a Bayesian–Nash equilibrium model of insider trading in continuous time. The supply of the risky asset is assumed to be stochastic. This supply can be interpreted as noise from nonrational traders (noise traders). A rational informed investor (the insider) has private information on the growth rate of the dividend flow rewarded by the risky asset. She is risk averse and maximizes her inter-temporal utility rate over an infinite time-horizon. The market is cleared by a risk neutral market maker who sets the price of the risky asset competitively as the conditional present value of future dividends, given the information supplied by the dividend history and the cumulative order flow. Due to the presence of noise traders, the market demand does not fully reveal the insider’s private information, which slowly becomes incorporated in prices. An interesting result of the paper is that a nonstandard linear filtering procedure gives an a priori form for the equilibrium strategy to be postulated. We show the existence of a stationary linear equilibrium where the insider acts strategically by taking advantage of the camouflage provided by the noise which affects the market maker’s estimates on private information. In this equilibrium, we find that the insider’s returns on the stock are uncorrelated over long periods of time. Finally, we show that the instantaneous variance of the price under asymmetric information lies between the instantaneous variance of the price under complete and incomplete information. The converse inequalities hold true for the unconditional variance of the price.     

A time series analysis of real wages,consumption and asset returns

This paper re-examines whether the time series properties of aggregate consumption, real wages, and asset returns can be explained by a neoclassical model. Previous empirical rejections of the model have suggested that the optimal labour contract model might be appropriate for understanding the time series properties of the real wage rate and consumption. We show that an optimal contract model restricts the long-run relation of the real wage rate and consumption. We exploit this long-run restriction (cointegration restriction) for estimating and testing the model, using Ogaki and Park's (1989) cointegration approach. This long-run restriction involves a parameter that we call the long-run intertemporal elasticity of substitution (IES) for non-durable consumption but does not involve the IES for leisure. This allows us to estimate the long-run IES for non-durable consumption from a cointegrating regression. Tests for the null of cointegration do not reject our model. As a further analysis, our estimates of the long-run IES for non-durable consumption are used to estimate the discount factor and a coefficient of time-nonseparability using Hansen's (1982) Generalized Method of Moments. We form a specification test for our model à la Hausman (1978) from these two steps. This specification test does not reject our model. © 1996 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Filtration enlargement-based time series forecast in view of insider trading

This survey reviews filtration enlargement models in view of insider trading. Although filtration enlargement aptly models insiders' informational advantage, the theoretical results have not attracted the attention of the empiricists, owing mainly to the lack of a bridge transforming the results to testable hypotheses, and/or the absence of econometrics method linking the hypotheses and the data. This survey provides a feasible avenue to estimate insider information and to detect trading from a relatively sophisticated theoretical model, where the dynamics of publicly available data (e.g., stock price) implies insider information before the information is completely digested. We complete the survey with an empirical illustration based on simulated data.     

The joint decision to manage earnings through discretionary accruals and asset sales around insider trading: Taiwan evidence

This study assesses the joint decision of multiple earnings–management tools around insider trading. The Taiwanese evidence indicates significantly higher magnitudes of both discretionary accruals and asset sales before insider selling. In addition, to investigate the endogenous relationship between discretionary accruals and asset sales, this study develops a set of simultaneous equations and includes the inverse Mill’s ratio as a regressor to account for firms that choose not to use asset sales. The results indicate a marginal complementary correlation between discretionary accruals and asset sales before insider selling. Further tests find this complementary correlation becomes stronger when accompanying abnormal insider selling. The findings support the view that insiders consider both tools jointly and adjust them as complements to meet their directional earnings management objective.     

“拐点”即将来临——大整合时代的房地产企业发展之道

中国房地产会不会出现“泡沫”？这个目前地产市场最敏感的话题，在不久前举办的“房地产创新论坛”上再次成为论争的焦点。 “其兴也勃焉，其衰也忽焉”——管理学专家岳川博的“大胆假设“，来源于对美、日等国房地产数据的“小心求证”。然而在经济学家赵晓看来，所谓周期、规律，在中国“非典型性市场”中都可能水土不服——基于工业化、城市化等宏观层面的认识，房地产“泡沫”才刚刚开始。 此番唇枪舌剑，只是目前有关房地产“泡沫”问题争论的一个缩影。本刊对此暂不评论，个中三昧还可由读者自己品味。 本刊还将陆续刊发一系列地产市场相关热点话题的争论及评点。欢迎读者踊跃参评。     

Core and competitive equilibria of a coalitional exchange economy with infinite time horizon

The core and competitive equilibria of a large exchange economy on the commodity space ?^∞${?}^{\infty }$ will be discussed. We define the economy as a measure on the space of consumers’ characteristics following Hart and Kohlberg (1974), and prove the existence of competitive equilibria and their equivalence with the core without assuming the convexity of preferences.     

Continuous time vs. backward induction a new approach to modelling reputation in the finite time horizon context

This paper suggests a new approach to modeling credible reputation in the finite time horizon context, using continuous time and interactions which arrive via a Poisson process. Behavior in the present model does not depend on small ad hoc irrationalities as the end of the horizon nears, and the model preserves the intuitive result that as the end of the horizon nears, the level of reputation declines towards zero. While the current paper considers the predatory pricing case, the approach should also apply whenever reputation and/or cooperation are important.     

When continuous trading becomes continuous: The impact of institutional trading on the continuous trading system of the Warsaw Stock Exchange

This paper examines the impact of a large increase in the number of institutional traders on the performance of a continuous trading system using Polish stock market data. After the Polish pension reform in 1999, the domestic stock market experienced large inflows of money. We theoretically and empirically show that those stocks that are actively traded by pension funds display increases in the share of continuous trading and corresponding liquidity in this system, while no positive effects are found for other stocks. Moreover, we find spill-over effects to the call auction system.     

A heterogeneous agent model of asset price dynamics with two time delays

This study constructs a heterogeneous agents model of a financial market in a continuous-time framework. There are two types of agents, fundamentalists and chartists. The former follows the traditional efficiency market theory and has a linear demand function, whereas the latter experiences delays in the formation of price trends and possesses a S-shaped demand function. The main feature of this study is a theoretical investigation on the effects caused by two time delays in a price adjustment process. In particular, two main results are demonstrated: One is that the stability switching curves are analytically derived, and the other is that the stability losses and gains can repeatedly occur when the shape of the curves are meandering. Although it is well known that a time delay has a destabilizing effect, these results imply that multiple delays can stabilize and destabilize a market price generating persistent deviations from the stationary price.     

A comparative study of technical trading strategies and return predictability: an extension of using NYSE and NASDAQ indices

This study extends the work of Brock et al.’s (1992) empirical analysis on technical trading rules (price and momentum) by including trading volume moving averages; broader indices (New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and National Association of Security Dealers Automatic Quotations (NASDAQ)) covering both large-cap and small-cap firms using market weightings; and focusing on a time period that includes great innovations in trading and disseminating data to the market. Similar to their study, we base our conclusions on nonparametric analysis. By extending the t-test analysis through a residual bootstrap methodology utilizing a random walk, a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity in mean (GARCH-M), and a GARCH-M with instrument variables, criticisms of earlier technical analysis are mitigated. Overall, the results support Brock et al.’s (1992) price-weighted index (Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA)) analysis by showing that the technical trading rules add value by capturing profit opportunities when compared to a buy-and-hold strategy. When the analysis of the trading rules are applied to different time periods, the results reveal a weakening in profit potential over time. This may imply that the market is becoming more efficient in disseminating information to a wider range of investors.